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Coronavirus: The Thread

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Coronavirus: The Thread

Old 5th Feb 2020, 19:15
  #221 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by meadowrun View Post
I've never taken what the Chinese government releases as official news as the unvarnished truth in the past.
I see no need to start believing them now.
This heavily implies there is/are a/some Government/s you do believe to be completely truthful, something I find quite astounding.
Care to name which one/ones
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Old 5th Feb 2020, 19:42
  #222 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Paultheparaglider View Post
Sad to report Hong Kong has confirmed its first fatality today.​​
But presumably only about 1/400th as sad as the 400+ deaths in mainland China?? Don't misunderstand me, any death is sad, indeed tragic, however I'm not understanding your logic at the sadness of this one specific death.
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Old 5th Feb 2020, 20:58
  #223 (permalink)  
 
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heavily implies there is/are a/some Government/s you do believe to be completely truthful
A.
Not a single one.
The Chinese, more so.
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Old 5th Feb 2020, 21:20
  #224 (permalink)  
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All UK hospitals ordered to prepare “Coronavirus assessment pods” where people can be assessed and Coronavirus isolation areas.

This is not a drill.......

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51392607
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Old 6th Feb 2020, 06:09
  #225 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by SpringHeeledJack View Post
Amen to that! Until we are unfortunate enough to have it at close hand, it's all a bit surreal.

I know a bloke who left yesterday from London to Auckland via Shanghai (8hrs) and he's in a pickle as NZ are apparently either stopping entry from China, or allowing entry but with a 14 day isolation, though self-imposed. He's only going for a week to a family wedding, so sh1t in every direction....
Frankly he should have cancelled those flights and rebooked via a non-Chinese or HKG hub - UK FCO advice would have allowed his cancellation and full refund of original tickets surely.
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Old 6th Feb 2020, 06:20
  #226 (permalink)  
 
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As if China does not have enough on their hands. Avian flu breaking out too...

https://www.businessinsider.com/bird...-highly-2020-2
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Old 6th Feb 2020, 08:13
  #227 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by jez d View Post
What is the probability of the pathogen mutating and becoming more virulent?
I don't think there is any meaningful way to estimate that. Viruses mutate all the time, the question to ask is what is the impact on the virus (not the human) of a given mutation. Something that made it more pathogenic might reduce its spread. Something that made it less pathogenic might increase its spread but make it of less concern. Something that increased its asymptomatic period, or its survival in droplets outside the body, while still having high mortality, would be very bad news. Highly virulent, very nasty viruses with short incubation periods such as Ebola are much less dangerous on a global scale. It is believed that there are frequent undetected but self-limiting Ebola outbreaks.

It's still not clear if this has the potential to be apocalyptic or not. The situation in China looks to be becoming apocalyptic if the estimates of real prevalence are accurate, but it seems to be contained outside China for reasons that are not entirely clear. The next 2 - 3 weeks will be telling.

Good to see how seriously it is finally being taken, but of course governments are in a loose-loose. If they successfully contain it or it turns-out to be not a major threat, governments will be ridiculed for over-reacting. If it runs away and causes big loss of life and economic damage, governments will be accused of being slow to respond.
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Old 6th Feb 2020, 08:39
  #228 (permalink)  
 
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To put the number of deaths so far into perspective, and of course assuming the Chinese government aren't hiding a much larger figure, given that the Chinese population is about 23 x the UK population, pro-rata, the equivalent number of deaths in the UK population would be just 21. Not a staggering number in my book, unless, of course, as has been mentioned above, on of them were my close relative or friend.
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Old 6th Feb 2020, 08:44
  #229 (permalink)  
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As serious is the percentage, around 20-25%, who require intensive care and reportedly suffer multiple organ failure - and are still in intensive care weeks later. Which is why more and more beds and careers are required.

It’s like they say about war, it’s better to cause serious injury than kill because caring for a serious casualty long-term causes many more problems fir the enemy than burying a body.
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Old 6th Feb 2020, 08:50
  #230 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by ATNotts View Post
.... and of course assuming the Chinese government aren't hiding a much larger figure.....

It is widely believed to be under estimated/reported by orders of magnitude, otherwise the epidemiology does not make sense.
https://systems.jhu.edu/research/pub.../ncov-model-2/
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Old 6th Feb 2020, 09:34
  #231 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by double_barrel View Post
It is widely believed to be under estimated/reported by orders of magnitude, otherwise the epidemiology does not make sense.
https://systems.jhu.edu/research/pub.../ncov-model-2/
Not much doubt about the numbers of cases being under estimated, given that many people may have suffered / be suffering comparatively mild symptoms that they have mistaken for little more than a bad cold, or mild form of flu and in that situation would I bother the doctor or hospital? Probably not. At the same time, of course they will have been interacting with people, and passing the virus on to others who may well wind up with a more severe symptoms and go to the doctor or hospital.

Is the suggestion that the number of deaths attributed to the virus is being under reported [deliberately]? Certainly not in the paper referenced. In fact throughout that paper there's a lot of "we believe" caveats, and whilst I would never want to belittle the judgement of experts (there's been enough damage done with people doing just that over the last few years) there does appear, not overtly in this paper, to be an overtone of "as it's China you can't trust them" kinds of statements that stink of being more political than scientific and / or factual circulating widely.
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Old 6th Feb 2020, 09:55
  #232 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by ATNotts View Post
Not much doubt about the numbers of cases being under estimated, given that many people may have suffered / be suffering comparatively mild symptoms that they have mistaken for little more than a bad cold, or mild form of flu and in that situation would I bother the doctor or hospital? Probably not. At the same time, of course they will have been interacting with people, and passing the virus on to others who may well wind up with a more severe symptoms and go to the doctor or hospital.

Is the suggestion that the number of deaths attributed to the virus is being under reported [deliberately]? Certainly not in the paper referenced. In fact throughout that paper there's a lot of "we believe" caveats, and whilst I would never want to belittle the judgement of experts (there's been enough damage done with people doing just that over the last few years) there does appear, not overtly in this paper, to be an overtone of "as it's China you can't trust them" kinds of statements that stink of being more political than scientific and / or factual circulating widely.
Reasonably reliable reports seem to show that this virus doesn't cause typical cold or 'flu like symptoms. Apparently it doesn't tend to infect the upper respiratory tract, but mainly affects deeper lung function, causing pneumonia-like symptoms. As such, it seems likely that few people would mistake this infection for a cold or 'flu, if only because they most probably won't have a sore throat, running nose, sneezing, etc.

What impact this has on possible under-reporting of infections I don't know, but I suspect that people with breathing difficulties are more likely to seek medical attention than those who just have cold or 'flu-like symptoms.
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Old 6th Feb 2020, 10:08
  #233 (permalink)  
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https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/06/w...rus-china.html

Wuhan told to round up infected residents for new mass quarantine camps.
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Old 6th Feb 2020, 10:17
  #234 (permalink)  
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https://www.cnn.com/2020/02/05/busin...act/index.html

Global shipping has been hit by the coronavirus. Now goods are getting stranded
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Old 6th Feb 2020, 10:26
  #235 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by ORAC View Post
https://www.cnn.com/2020/02/05/busin...act/index.html

Global shipping has been hit by the coronavirus. Now goods are getting stranded
There is going to be a serious hit to the western economies unless thing get moving again in China fairly soon. Mrs ATN, who still works in logistics, and is involved in the far east trades said this morning that initially it will be those summer products (barbecues, cheap garden furniture etc) that will be in short supply come the spring, such is the length of the supply chain and reliance upon Chinese manufacture. If it goes on beyond the summer, then kids toys and the other junk we buy in the name of "gifts" for Christmas could be hit, resulting in inevitable shortages and higher prices. No bad thing in my book, but not great for the economy, and in particular a retail sector that is already struggling. Could also hit the likes of Amazon (stifles smug grin at that thought!!).
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Old 6th Feb 2020, 18:11
  #236 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by pilotmike View Post
I'm not understanding your logic at the sadness of this one specific death.
I read that as sad that it has occurred in another country.
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Old 6th Feb 2020, 19:23
  #237 (permalink)  
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Greetings from Brighton......

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51398039

Coronavirus: Third UK patient 'caught coronavirus in Singapore'

The third person in the UK to be diagnosed with coronavirus caught it in Singapore, it is understood.

He is thought to have tested positive for the virus in Brighton before being taken to hospital in London...........

https://www.theguardian.com/world/li...st-update-news

The first British national has tested positive for coronavirus after travelling back to the UK from Singapore, according to government sources.

It emerged earlier that a third case of the disease had been confirmed in the UK but England’s chief medical officer refused to disclose the patient’s nationality or specify which country in Asia they caught the disease. But the Guardian understands that the individual is British and contracted the coronavirus in Singapore. It comes after Downing Street indicated the patient was British, with a spokesman saying earlier they “believed they are, yes”.

The circumstances of how or where the British national caught coronavirus in Singapore remain unknown.

However, it does follow concerns being raised about at least three Asian businessmen catching the disease after attending a meeting of more than 100 international delegates at a hotel in the country. Other attendees are also showing symptoms of the disease, according to Reuters......

Last edited by ORAC; 6th Feb 2020 at 19:55.
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Old 6th Feb 2020, 20:38
  #238 (permalink)  
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https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...e-to-instagram

Russia's strangest reality show: Siberian quarantine videos shared on Instagram

In a forest in Siberia, more than 140 Russians and others evacuated from Wuhan, the centre of the coronavirus outbreak, have been confined to a sanatorium patrolled by members of Russia’s National Guard instructed to let no one enter or exit.

Inside, many have taken to Instagram to blog their time in quarantine, snapping photos of their dinner and exercise routines, or even holding live Q&A sessions from the rooms they will be confined to for the next two weeks.

What would in the past have been a solitary affair, a fortnight fighting fear and boredom in quarantine during an international health emergency, has been transformed through wifi and social media into Russia’s strangest reality show.........
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Old 6th Feb 2020, 21:08
  #239 (permalink)  
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Sky reporting fatality rate in China now stated as 4.1 percent.
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Old 7th Feb 2020, 05:39
  #240 (permalink)  
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https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...-outside-china

Cruise Ship Virus Outbreak Is Biggest Outside China With 61 Sick

Japan confirmed 41 more cases of the new coronavirus aboard a quarantined cruise ship, and denied entry to another vessel as it sought to control the spread of the deadly infection, with thousands now stranded on stricken luxury liners.

The results bring to 61 the tally of infections among 273 passengers and crew so far tested aboard the Diamond Princess, which is being kept in isolation at the port of Yokohama and is the biggest center of infection of any place outside of China.

Japan’s Ministry of Defense said Thursday it would send Self-Defense Forces medical personnel to help out with treatment on the ship, and bring alongside a commercial passenger vessel to act as a temporary base. Health Minister Katsunobu Kato said he was considering testing other elderly and vulnerable people among the roughly 3,700 people aboard.

Foreign Minister Toshimitsu Motegi said one of those infected on the ship was now confirmed to be in serious condition, while Twitter users who said they were aboard the vessel expressed increasing concern.......

Japan has banned a separate cruise ship -- the Westerdam -- from berthing at a port in the country, saying a person on the vessel was suspected to have contracted the virus.

Cruise operator Holland America, part of Carnival Corp., said earlier there were no known cases of the novel coronavirus aboard the Westerdam and the ship was not in quarantine. The vessel is currently off Ishigaki -- one of Japan’s most southerly islands -- and Holland America said it was trying to make alternative plans for its passengers.........
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