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Hurricane Dorian

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Hurricane Dorian

Old 1st Sep 2019, 20:16
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Hurricane Dorian

If we have any Jet Blast participants who are anywhere near Dorian I hope you are safe and/or battened down.

I would surmise that anyone who is in the path has already beaten to quarters, but how do you defend against a Cat 5? What a furious storm.

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Old 1st Sep 2019, 21:30
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I was in Florida for Hurricane Andrew. There is no defense against a cat 5 storm. A week after Andrew I was flying back from Key West and my passenger asked what was on the ground out the window. It was a 10 mile swath of trash that used to be people's houses.
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Old 1st Sep 2019, 22:12
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Normally defense for a hurricane is to head to 'high ground' - but in Florida that pretty much means leaving the state.
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Old 1st Sep 2019, 22:44
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My son is on Saba and they've had the worst weather on Thursday when the vids he sent me showed the road down to "The Bottom" like a river
He was one of the four divers cleaning the Fort Bay harbour of washed out bins, fish traps etc... during the storm, making the waters safe for navigation. One of the dock has been damaged and the jetty is not practicable anymore as the sand has been washed away and the fallen rocks limit the draft available... They got in the water wearing short sleeves tops and short trousers wet suits but had to quickly get out of the water and change into dry suits as they were met by at least eight Man o'War !!!! Tomorrow, Monday 2nd Sept, he flies from Saba to Sint Maarten and then to Fort Lauderdale where, if not allowed to carry on onto Dallas, he will stay with a friend in a private Hurricane Shelter, 20 minutes away from the airport. So far, all his flights are scheduled normally. Fingers crossed, his three weeks holidays with his partner in Portland Oregon will not be shortened by this horrible weather.
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Old 2nd Sep 2019, 08:02
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USAF inside the eye of Dorian


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Old 2nd Sep 2019, 08:54
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That is a breathtaking photo. Incredible.

Thereís an eerie satellite image from the NOAA showing the clear movement of the eye from space but canít seem to link it at the moment.

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Old 2nd Sep 2019, 09:06
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The eye of Dorian

I wonder how high youíd have to climb to exit out of the top of that particular eye?

I wouldnít fancy entering and exiting laterally although Iím aware that is how the picture was captured.

BV
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Old 2nd Sep 2019, 09:55
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Old 2nd Sep 2019, 11:21
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We were in Punta Gorda, Florida in 2004 for Hurricane Charley. We had arrived the day before to beautiful clear blue skies and if it hadn’t have been for the forecasts, you would have no idea of the devastation that was to follow. It was predicted to come ashore 100 up the coast in Tampa but the weather channel kept updating as it slipped further and further down the coast. One of the last bulletins we saw on TV was that our immediate area was about to take a direct hit. Then we lost power.

As the Americans say, we just hunkered down whilst the wind and horizontal rain literally screamed past our rented villa. To get updates, we listened to the radio in the car in the garage. Luckily, although hugely powerful, Charley was a fast moving storm and we were back on the grid in 12 hours. When we ventured out the debris and damage all around was unbelievable. Massive banyan trees had been ripped up, walls had collapsed and cars crushed. The only damage we had sustained was torn bug netting around the pool.

We were unbelievably lucky and incredibly naive as a family. We underestimated the fury of a category 4 hurricane and dismissed the warnings as over dramatic reporting. Even today, I still think about how stupid we were not to heed the alerts and evacuate further upstate. We got away with it by the skin of our teeth.

Not filmed by me - but gives a very good idea of the experience!

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Old 2nd Sep 2019, 11:46
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We're inland from Cape Canaveral sitting and waiting. Dorian is supposed (!!!) to stay about 50 miles offshore. The wind forecast to reach a maximum of 70mph. The house is shuttered up, plenty of food, petrol etc. The wait is the worst part. The early forecasts showed it to be here Sunday night, but now tomorrow. We ventured out to the beach yesterday afternoon as we were fed up with being housebound. I've not seen so many people there in a long while. It would appear most people have got tired of it aswell as it's so slow moving and have resumed their lives.
I've given up watching the weather on tv, it's as though they want as much devastation as possible and their bloody spaghetti models have been analyzed to death. Worse than an election night.
Anyway, we'll see how we fare....
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Old 2nd Sep 2019, 13:32
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I noticed BA253 passing my house at approx 11.55 this morning, bound for Nassau. Is that a sensible idea, given the current weather? BBC reported earlier that the storm is moving at only 1mph so it won't have gone anywhere by the time the flight gets there.
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Old 2nd Sep 2019, 14:19
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I noticed BA253 passing my house at approx 11.55 this morning, bound for Nassau. Is that a sensible idea, given the current weather? BBC reported earlier that the storm is moving at only 1mph so it won't have gone anywhere by the time the flight gets there.
Although the hurricane is extreme, it does not cover the whole of the Bahamas. This is the TAF for today at Nassau, doesn’t look too bad. The really bad TAF being discussed on another thread, with 80 gusting 200 kts, is for Freeport.

TAF: MYNN 012300Z 0200/022426020G30KT 9999 VCTS FEW008 SCT012CB BKN100 TEMPO 0205/020924023G33KT 8000 SHRA SCT016CB BKN018 BKN120
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Old 2nd Sep 2019, 16:43
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TWT, what a wonderful picture from inside the "eye"! "Picture of Dorian: gray" ....

I wish its "currents turn awry and lose the name of action"
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Old 3rd Sep 2019, 02:02
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BobV,
The commentary on that vid. said that they came over the top and descended into the eye, no mention of where the tops were.
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Old 3rd Sep 2019, 02:10
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Fliegle

I missed that. If they flew over the top in a Herc then it canít have been that high I guess.

BV
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Old 4th Sep 2019, 02:26
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Well having watched Dorian for more than a week it got mighty close to me before it stalled and took a turn North.

Freeport is about 85 miles out.

I am in awe of the science of meteorology these days.



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Old 4th Sep 2019, 06:00
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If anyone can point me to either air to ground photo shots or good resolution satellite images of Abaco, Marsh harbour, Treasure Key area I would be obliged. I have the 3rd Sept Copernicus EMS radar images but would like more resolution.

Not much coming in yet as Marsh Harbour airport is still closed (I think, no comms).

Thnks
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Old 4th Sep 2019, 10:38
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OK thanks the images are coming in. I got people missing there, but I doubt they have working phones north of Marsh Harbour. Wait and see.

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Old 4th Sep 2019, 11:30
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fleigle, what I think he said was they were flying a constant millibar setting so as you approach the centre you will be descending in real terms as the sea level pressure reduces. From looking at the NHC site they usually plan to operate from SFC to between 10000 and 15000' in the C130.
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Old 4th Sep 2019, 16:56
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Originally Posted by Bob Viking View Post
I wonder how high you’d have to climb to exit out of the top of that particular eye?

I wouldn’t fancy entering and exiting laterally although I’m aware that is how the picture was captured.

BV
Typically, the eyewall extends upwards to 12-15km/FL400-450 (tropopause, like any large tropical TS anvil). Can be higher.

But the WC-130s want the data from low down, in through all the rain bands - the ride is just part of the job (and the mystique). They're tough birds.

NOAA has jets and drones to explore the upper altitudes.
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