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BREXIT

Old 19th Aug 2019, 23:38
  #1241 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by rogerg View Post
You have to blame Tony Blair and his American friend for that.
Hmmmm

Interesting the people blaming Blair are happy to endorse further Uk Govt bombing actions in Libya, Syria, Yemen, Somalia etc etc
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Old 19th Aug 2019, 23:57
  #1242 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by andrewn View Post
That's a really good question, but not as fundamental as "do we need to stoke it"?

My view, the world is moving on, I think (hope) that more and more of the great unwashed are at least starting to question the lazy establishment narrative of the last 50 years, i.e. that consumption driven growth is both a necessity and a good thing.

My view is that sustainable growth should be the new mantra, but that means a mindset change on a whole host of issues, some of which would be very controversial obviously.
UK economic growth from 2004 onwards was helped by the massive influx of EU Immigrants, now they are being blamed and abused and told to F Off back to where they came from. Uk media do not publish it but go to Poland, Hungary, Czech republic and stories of their people being abused and attacked are openly shown with the media.

Point is that many are now returning, many would have gone back anyway because they came to earn and return home. Build a house provide for the future etc. I know and have known many in last 15 years via church. However now when made unwelcome and openly told and abused they will return home.

Returning EU migrants previously had a good view of UK, they earned, many cases met someone and returned home, still would visit and spend on UK products. Now they view is unwelcome so many will stay away and take holidays elsewhere and ignore previous UK products. I have travelled to wedding, birthdays, baptisms and odd funeral for last 15 years across the 2004 accesssion countrys. Uk products on sale in tiny shops in towns because people wanted them, now people deciding lets not stock and people not buying. Who loses but UK economy.

UK has blamed predominantely EU Christian immigrants and told them they unwelcome while having an open door policy to Non EU migrants, even if they are Jihadists. Most of EU who came were single, didn't bring extended family, worked in tax paying jobs and actually took little from taxpayers. Strangely the Brexiteers don't want to publish the Non EU migrant data because this cohort are a taxpayer drain, will never return home, rarely seek to integrate etc. But hey the optics look nice in liberal media.
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Old 20th Aug 2019, 00:01
  #1243 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by SaulGoodman View Post
I donít see the connection between the EU and immigrants from Iraq who apparently rob old ladies.
Oh you will.

One you welcome and house, the other is not welcome even though they housed themselves and paid taxes. The latter you have told are unwelcome, the former want you to change British values to their values.
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Old 20th Aug 2019, 06:49
  #1244 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by Economics101 View Post
Boris Johnson has written to Donald Tusk to-day: https://www.politicshome.com/news/uk...boris-johnsons

BJ writes:

What planet is this man on? The whole point of the Backstop is to prevent things happening which would erode and probably destroy the GFA.

Priti Patel's declared intention to impose an immediate end to freedom of movement for (non-Irish) EU nationals is clearly unimplementable unless there are UK immigration checks all along the Irish land border. We have lots of Poles, Germans, French, Latvians and others who cross the border daily, so good luck with that. Patel sees a need to keep these threats to UK sovereignty at bay. This is the same woman who threatened us with starvation: good luck with that too. Irish food helps to feed the UK. The next thing we will be told is that all those dastardly Poles etc are a threat to the GFA.
He's on Planet Boris, or rather he's intent on the perpetuation and longevity of Boris as the UK's PM now that he's lied, connived and deceived his way into his dream. Of course, there's also the little matter of a Gov't majority to consider which at present is hardly substantial. If the bombastic rhetoric works in convincing the electorate ( Mail readers probably already are ) and a GE is held, then with a sufficient majority, it's good night Arlene and sod N.I.at the same time.

This article however suggests the grandiose plans and electioneering rhetoric may not be as simple as the gob that is expounding them seeks to imply.......and oh look, apart from a minor detail of personnel numbers that is, guess who will be sponsoring this wonderful "no deal " farrago.....non other than...the UK taxpayer...again.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-49393809
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Old 20th Aug 2019, 07:05
  #1245 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by racedo View Post
Hmmmm

Interesting the people blaming Blair are happy to endorse further Uk Govt bombing actions in Libya, Syria, Yemen, Somalia etc etc
Syria, yes, Libya at one time. Please enlighten me on the other two.
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Old 20th Aug 2019, 07:18
  #1246 (permalink)  
 
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Presently there would appear to be a majority for stopping a no deal Brexit within the House of Commons. The best hope of getting no deal off the table is for a very early no confidence vote. Following a successful no confidence vote, then parliament could put in place a unity government that would go cap in hand to the EU and ask for a further extension to allow time for meaningful new negotiations, and either a new referendum or general election.

However there is a fly in the ointment. It's called Jeremy. He goes along with the idea of a no confidence vote, but after he's won that will marshal his (Labour) troops so as to only put him on the table as interim, PM, which many MPs from various parties wouldn't accept, creating stalemate and giving our fly what he wants - both things, a general election which only he and his inner circle really believe he can win, plus leaving the EU. He is essentially a hard line leaver.

Unless and until Corbyn puts Brexit ahead of party, there is absolutely no point in having, or voting with the opposition in a no confidence vote, since all it will do is allow Johnson and Cummings to proceed with their plan of leaving on 31.10.19 with no deal, then holding a general election at a time of his choosing - probably the first week of November. From Labour's perspective, it would be better not to bother, thus taking away the opportunity for Johnson to call an election at a time of his choosing, and instead going for no confidence after the potential sh1t has hit the fan big time in the run up to Christmas. That gives Corbyn a better chance of winning the power he craves so much.

With a more competent, centrist leader, Labour would be so much better placed to rein in the excesses of new new Johnson regime. But that's all what ifs.
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Old 20th Aug 2019, 07:44
  #1247 (permalink)  
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ATN, leaving with no deal is not a plan it is a promise and a threat as this link from above shows:

https://www.politicshome.com/news/uk...boris-johnsons

The difference appears to be moving an open ended back stop to an open ended transition period.
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Old 20th Aug 2019, 07:48
  #1248 (permalink)  
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Presently there would appear to be a majority for stopping a no deal Brexit within the House of Commons. The best hope of getting no deal off the table is for a very early no confidence vote. Following a successful no confidence vote, then parliament could put in place a unity government that would go cap in hand to the EU and ask for a further extension to allow time for meaningful new negotiations
As has been said often, there are many small groups who can unite to say they don’t like the option preferred by any one of them - but there aren’t enough to join to together to form a majority for any option acceptable for enough of them.

In in which case they might well be able to combine for a vote of no confidence in the present government, but not to pass such a vote for any alternate government - resulting in a general election lasting till after Brexit has occurred. A problem for them.

There are are many stories about backbencher MPs, aided by the Speaker, forcing through a bill requiring the government to ask for another extension. Here there are three problems.

Firstly the government can prevent the bill being debated and passed by refusing Royal Consent.

Secondly, if passed, the PM can refuse to do so quoting the Royal Prerogative on international treaties - the normal political recourse for which being a vote of no confidence in the government - leading us back to my first point.

Lastly the government can make any vote on the bill a matter of Confidence (the Fixed Term Parliament Act didn’t remove them, just added for special circumstances). (See link below, bottom of page 7,) Which would have the same effect as a vote of no confidence. In which case the PM could decline to nominate an alternate person - triggering a general election 14 days later.

https://researchbriefings.files.parl...73/SN02873.pdf
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Old 20th Aug 2019, 08:17
  #1249 (permalink)  
 
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In in which case they might well be able to combine for a vote of no confidence in the present government, but not to pass such a vote for any alternate government - resulting in a general election lasting till after Brexit has occurred. A problem for them.
Yes that's the problem, unless Corbyn does something statesmanlike, and gets behind some sort of jointly lead administration headed up by, say Yvette Cooper and Ken Clarke (other realistic combinations are possible involving the likes of Benn, Starmer, Letwin, Grieve) there won't be a consensus reached in the 14 day window, and the ball is firmly back in Johnson's court.

For all the procedural reasons you state getting a bill through parliament to force the government's hand could be very awkward, and why I suggested that really an opposition promoted no confidence vote is probably the only way to go. Of course what we don't know is how Mr Speaker is going to handling things and what jolly japes he has up his sleeve. You can be sure he'll have been looking at all options over the holidays. One thing I think might happen is the customary break in parliamentary sitting during conference season may be curtailed, deferred or cancelled altogether.
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Old 20th Aug 2019, 08:36
  #1250 (permalink)  
 
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Because of the "jolly japes" of the dwarf, the reasons for promotion of JRM to his position become self evident as JRM knows at least as much about the inner machinations, conventions, and "rules" of the place as the dwarf does.

...and he can filibuster like the best of them, should the need arise.

An inspired choice.
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Old 20th Aug 2019, 09:10
  #1251 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by ATNotts View Post
... One thing I think might happen is the customary break in parliamentary sitting during conference season may be curtailed, deferred or cancelled altogether.
Who is going to curtail, defer or cancel it?
If an event of national significance occurs when the two Houses are in recess, the government may ask the Speaker of the Commons and the Lord Speaker to recall Parliament. It is up to the Speakers whether to grant the government’s request.
(https://www.instituteforgovernment.o...itor-2018/time)
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Old 20th Aug 2019, 09:26
  #1252 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by NoelEvans View Post
Who is going to curtail, defer or cancel it?(https://www.instituteforgovernment.o...itor-2018/time)
Depends whether Mr. Speaker grants the opposition a day to control the order paper I'd have thought. If MPs had the interests of the country at heart then they'd be gagging to cancel the party conferences until Brexit is done, or at least the 31 October deadline has been reached, or extension achieved. Sadly I fear that party may be put before country, as it has been, by most parties in recent time, possibly since time immemorial.

John Bercow is key to what opportunities parliament are afforded. It is then up to MPs to delivery cross party, and I have to say they don't fill me with much confidence based on their inability to make any decisions back in March.
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Old 20th Aug 2019, 09:26
  #1253 (permalink)  
 
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I am concerned that the 'free movement' within the EU including the UK (even if it did leave on 31.10.19) initially promised until 2021 will end on 31.10.19. With no documentation in place to be applied for and issued to EU citizens coming in and out of the UK for legitimate business reasons (and to see their families) and for UK citizens coming out of their EU countries of residence to the UK and other EU countries for legitimate business reasons (and to see their families), this will bring complete chaos.

Any sensible solutions on the table or in the pipeline? (And no, I don't want to hear ...... 'come back to the Mother Ship' because that's not the practical solution. And there are many people in this situation who were betrayed by not being permitted to vote in the 2016 farce.)
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Old 20th Aug 2019, 09:37
  #1254 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Pontius Navigator View Post
ATN, leaving with no deal is not a plan it is a promise and a threat as this link from above shows:

https://www.politicshome.com/news/uk...boris-johnsons

The difference appears to be moving an open ended back stop to an open ended transition period.
So suddenly the 'dreadful' withdrawal agreement is acceptable as long as the backstop is removed? The backstop isn't the only issue MPs voted against it we were told although the Brexiteers managed to impale themselves on the backstop thorn and can't move anymore.

Maybe if Johnson and his acolytes come up with realistic and genuine proposals instead of rhetoric. There might be movement. As it is, it simply looks like a pre election bluster aimed across the Channel for the benefit of the electorate.

As for the EU citizen thing. Already the farmers who rely on seasonal workers are finding it difficult to recruit EU workers not least because of the perceived hostility to be found in England now but also because of the improvement in living conditions and educational opportunities and indeed jobs in their own country. Thanks in no small measure to EU membership.
So of course the farmers are turning to non EU citizens to fill the gap. Oh the irony!

Of course the farmers may struggle to stay in business when they lose a lot of of their market and the EU grants many depend on. So the workers won't be needed. If they are why not resurrect the 'Land Army'? Well there's this constant invocation of wartime spirit. Why not go the whole way?
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Old 20th Aug 2019, 09:41
  #1255 (permalink)  
 
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Of course the farmers may struggle to stay in business when they lose a lot of of their market and the EU grants many depend on. So the workers won't be needed. If they are why not resurrect the 'Land Army'? Well there's this constant invocation of wartime spirit. Why not go the whole way?
Excellent idea! I'm sure there's a massive pool of available candidates to join the new land army to be recruited from the door steps and railway arches in all of our cities and towns. Sadly, most would be far happier maintaining their current lifestyle than moving away from the urban areas, leaving their booze, and drugs behind them and working hard in return for warm dry accommodation and some cash they've actually earned rather than begged for or stolen!
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Old 20th Aug 2019, 09:51
  #1256 (permalink)  
 
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ATNotts, I fully agree with your last statement!!!
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Old 20th Aug 2019, 10:18
  #1257 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by ATNotts View Post
Depends whether Mr. Speaker grants the opposition a day to control the order paper I'd have thought. If MPs had the interests of the country at heart then they'd be gagging to cancel the party conferences until Brexit is done, or at least the 31 October deadline has been reached, or extension achieved. Sadly I fear that party may be put before country, as it has been, by most parties in recent time, possibly since time immemorial.

John Bercow is key to what opportunities parliament are afforded. It is then up to MPs to delivery cross party, and I have to say they don't fill me with much confidence based on their inability to make any decisions back in March.
It is only the government that can curtail, delay or cancel the current recess. The only thing that Mr Speaker can do about it is agree to what the government might want to do to change the current recess. It seems highly unlikely that the government will want to alter the present arrangements, so things will remain as they are, no matter what anyone might think about it.

I do agree with you about not being filled with confidence in the current MPs. I suspect this is quite a widespread feeling through the country and will be reflected with some rather wholesale 're-allocation' of seating arrangements in the Commons after the next election. I suspect that the likes of Mr Farage will not be deterred by a departure from the EU on 31 October, but will continue in the fray targeting seats where the sitting MP/party has been very much at odds with their electorate's indicated wishes in 2016. I can see one once major party shrinking to become just a London Party (same initials!). Are we going to be seeing our second woman Leader of the Opposition? (I'm only counting full time party leaders here, not temporary 'caretaker' stand-ins.)
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Old 20th Aug 2019, 10:33
  #1258 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Steepclimb View Post
As for the EU citizen thing. Already the farmers who rely on seasonal workers are finding it difficult to recruit EU workers not least because of the perceived hostility to be found in England now but also because of the improvement in living conditions and educational opportunities and indeed jobs in their own country. Thanks in no small measure to EU membership.
So of course the farmers are turning to non EU citizens to fill the gap. Oh the irony!
Nope

In 2016 the exchange rate of £ to Polish Zloty was 6 to £1, now it is 4.76. This is a 27% drop. It has been as low as 4.60.

In 2016 minimum wage was £7.20 now it is £8.21 a 14 % increase.

Agri workers coming to the UK excluding increased costs get 13% less than 3 years ago where as because Euro-Zloty rate has not changed any increase in minimum wage across EU countries they get the benefit of. Seasonal workers are voting with their pockets and going elsewhere and that is even before the abusive media rhetoric.

Guess when UK media say "You are not wanted" they decide ok we go elsewhere. Now when UK farmers are saying "We want you and need you", the reply is "Ok, we have your number, we will be in touch like never".
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Old 20th Aug 2019, 10:47
  #1259 (permalink)  
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We are not talking about the current recess, that ends on 3rd September, we are discussing the following recess for the party conferences, which will be voted upon once once the return.

Based in past precedent they should vote for a recess from 12th Sept to 8th Oct. With an election probably imminent Labour CLPs will be desperate to hold theirs in order to set their policy on Brexit etc and Conservatives vote for it regardless, so I would expect the vote to pass.

https://www.parliament.uk/about/faqs.../recess-dates/

Cancelling the recess won’t change the arithmetic on days until an election, that deadline will have already passed, and there will also be ample time left for any attempt to pass legislation to either succeed or fail.

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Old 20th Aug 2019, 10:54
  #1260 (permalink)  
 
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For once Iím kind of in agreement with you racedo. If farms -or any other business rely on poverty wages they are unviable. Just like costa, recently in news for outrageous deductions. If they canít or wonít pay reasonably to attract staff they shut down and good riddance. Does the remain argument really hinge on supply of sub-min wage labourers?

Last edited by ShotOne; 20th Aug 2019 at 11:09.
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