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BREXIT

Old 12th Oct 2021, 18:56
  #11981 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Torquetalk View Post
Not sure that ATNotts was quite making your point in this sense. He was saying that their business model was conceived in a regulatory environment and scale that does not facilitate adapting to the new world order. So unless preparing means giving up on EU Exports, selling or going out of business then preparing as a contingency is not really an option they could afford.

On the other hand, it was of course naive of bigger scale businesses not to consider that they were dealing with reckless extremists who would stab the UK economy in the side and shout Allahu akbar in fervour at the first victory strike in the grand cause. And also the extent to which the UK electorate was prepared to throw its toys out of the pram over a range of frustrations, perceived rightly or wrongly, and vote for an undefined change come what may.

Stop talking about this and get on with it? No I donĎt think so. I think this wound is going to get poked for many years to come as those responsible get reminded of their foolishness and gullibility as the consequences bite steadily harder.
Thanks, at least you saw the logic of the example I was proffering. Many businesses, since the full implementation of the EU SIngle Market, both in UK and the EU member states didn't even consider dealing across borders until it was made pretty well as simple as selling from Hannover to Munich, Paris to Lyon or London to Newcastle. Many now find the plethora of rules that the UK has forced upon itself by refusing to retain common standards with the EU make that cross border business unviable. That is the case not just for UK companies but businesses across Europe.

Yes, the larger global businesses should perhaps have considered Johnson / Frost could go for a thinly disguised "no deal". The reality is that the deal the UK struck with the EU at the last minute was just about enough, and little more to placate the car manufacturers and the likes of Airbus to keep them in UK for the time being. Many business leaders, as I said before really didn't believe that the UK government really would chuck the baby out with the bath water.

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Old 12th Oct 2021, 19:00
  #11982 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by SWBKCB View Post
Isn't GSP about tariffs, not the other procedures ('red tape') which have caused so many problems for UK exporters?
GSP is essentially about quotas, and tends to be used to dissuade other nations from dumping product cheaply into a market. They are essentially a form of trade protectionism. GSPs weren't necessary for EU/UK trade, they probably aren't appropriate now, but there is always the possibility they could be used in the "war" that the UK is trying its hardest to start with the UK over the NI protocol. Listening to what Frost said today there is clearly a gross misunderstanding about the external EU border. It falls in one of only two places - the Irish Sea or The Irish Land Border. There is nowhere else for it to go. That, above everything else is a greatest miscalculation of the whole Brexit project, and one that will probably lead to a resurgence of violence in Northern Ireland unless the UK is very careful.
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Old 12th Oct 2021, 20:42
  #11983 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by ATNotts View Post
That, above everything else is a greatest miscalculation of the whole Brexit project, and one that will probably lead to a resurgence of violence in Northern Ireland unless the UK is very careful.
Troublingly neither Frost nor Johnson seem to have the slightest comprehension of what the word Ďcarefulí might mean!
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Old 12th Oct 2021, 20:57
  #11984 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by SWBKCB View Post
And we belong to WTO - many countries trade with the EU on basic WTO terms.
Fortunately someone else has tested that for you - it's not many - it's one - https://medium.com/@MrWeeble/who-act...s-1b6127ce33c6
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Old 12th Oct 2021, 21:24
  #11985 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by alfaman View Post
Fortunately someone else has tested that for you - it's not many - it's one - https://medium.com/@MrWeeble/who-act...s-1b6127ce33c6
Actually, when you read it, it is not even one, because Mauritania is on the preferential treatment list of the EU...
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Old 12th Oct 2021, 21:39
  #11986 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by nomilk View Post
Actually, when you read it, it is not even one, because Mauritania is on the preferential treatment list of the EU...
I rest my previous case
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Old 12th Oct 2021, 23:07
  #11987 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by nomilk View Post
Actually, when you read it, it is not even one, because Mauritania is on the preferential treatment list of the EU...
Yep, see that now in the update. Certainly not "many" at all, then...
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Old 12th Oct 2021, 23:45
  #11988 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by SWBKCB View Post
No - your para 1 said nothing new.

And I think that Ninthace is a bit over the top in terms of the different rules. Maybe the case in terms of tariff levels, but remember we didn't leave under a no deal there was a an agreement on tariffs. Many of the issues have been around foodstuffs were there is very little variation.

And we belong to WTO - many countries trade with the EU on basic WTO terms.

Denti is correct, the rules that UK firms have to follow on imports into the EU are EU rules, so where's the obvious place to start....
I think the issues that many UK firms face were clearly demonstrated by M&S, when they shut down their French food franchise operation, as the bureaucracy involved in shipping sandwiches (amongst other things) was so onerous, that the entire operation became unviable.
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Old 13th Oct 2021, 07:20
  #11989 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by wowzz View Post
I think the issues that many UK firms face were clearly demonstrated by M&S, when they shut down their French food franchise operation, as the bureaucracy involved in shipping sandwiches (amongst other things) was so onerous, that the entire operation became unviable.
My point is that this seems to have come as a surprise to M&S who had years to prepare. There is an arguement about the admin burden on SME's, but not for the likes of M&S who seems to have more than enough staff to make their own suppliers jump through administratively burdensome hoops. Talk about pots and kettles.
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Old 13th Oct 2021, 07:34
  #11990 (permalink)  
 
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Each country will have negotiated and agreed sets of rules, customs and practices under which they trade with the EU. These will vary according from country to country and from trading bloc to trading bloc. When the UK left the EU, all the rules, customs and practices we had enjoyed for the last 40 years became null and void. As far as I know, we do not belong to any other trading bloc that has an agreement with the EU that we can call on.
I've not explained myself very well - lets go back to Ninthace's original comment that kicked this off. My point is that when we left the EU, we were faced with proceedures which were new to many, but all international trade is underpinned by a basic set of WTO standards which governs what you can and can't do. There can be additional deals between countries and trading blocks (for example we have one on tariffs on the EU) but these all still have to fit into the WTO framework - as this is an aviation related forum, look at Airbus, Boeing, and the issues around subsidies and state aid. So there was an agreement/framework that could have been used for preparation as welll as EU's own rules on accessing their markets.

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Old 13th Oct 2021, 08:11
  #11991 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by SWBKCB View Post
I've not explained myself very well - lets go back to Ninthace's original comment that kicked this off. My point is that when we left the EU, we were faced with proceedures which were new to many, but all international trade is underpinned by a basic set of WTO standards which governs what you can and can't do. There can be additional deals between countries and trading blocks (for example we have one on tariffs on the EU) but these all still have to fit into the WTO framework - as this is an aviation related forum, look at Airbus, Boeing, and the issues around subsidies and state aid. So there was an agreement/framework that could have been used for preparation as welll as EU's own rules on accessing their markets.
I get what youíre saying, but I think youíre taking a rather simplistic viewpoint.

Truth is nobody knew; my employer at the time of the referendum and for a couple of years after, were clear to their staff that they had no idea what Brexit would entail and therefore couldnít plan for it effectively. They are a big name company in the service sector, if I understand correctly what youíre suggesting then in your opinion they should have had a team of people studying WTO rules and planning for the Ďworstí. AFAIK they didnít do that, because there were so many variables and there was little clear guidance from Gvt. Consensus appeared to be to see what happens and adapt accordingly.

When weíre talking about small and medium size businesses then there is no chance in my view. You just have to look at the fishing industry as an example, a lot of leave supporting businesses who found themselves unable to import/export effectively to the continent as they had before. Is that a lack of planning? Or was it a monumental misunderstanding of what Brexit actually was?

I suspect some of them saw this coming a mile off, as the below video would suggest;


I think itís pretty much a given that most businesses in the U.K. that export services or products to the continent have their foundations in being an EU member and all the benefits that brings. I donít think weíve seen the full effect yet.
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Old 13th Oct 2021, 08:15
  #11992 (permalink)  
 
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Do none of these companies pay big money to Trade Associations?

Consensus appeared to be to see what happens and adapt accordingly.
cos we can always apply pressure on the govt to change anything we don't like (say be engineering some sort of shortage...)
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Old 13th Oct 2021, 08:22
  #11993 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by SWBKCB View Post
Do none of these companies pay big money to Trade Associations?



cos we can always apply pressure on the govt to change anything we don't like (say be engineering some sort of shortage...)
Yes but I thought people had had enough of experts? Havenít we seen various trade bodies lobbying the Government to not crash out without a deal - or a poor deal? Seems it didnít work.

I donít understand your second bit, care to elaborate? It reads as though youíre suggesting some sort of conspiracy.
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Old 13th Oct 2021, 08:31
  #11994 (permalink)  
 
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The trouble is the devil is in the detail and that is what has to be thrashed out to allow trade to continue. Take aviation as an example. Does the WTO cover the recognition and acceptance of the myriad of licences, permits, certificates and other paperwork required to operate an airline both to and from and within the EU? Does it nominate an arbitration authority?
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Old 13th Oct 2021, 09:02
  #11995 (permalink)  
 
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It seems to me that the amount of time that was wasted, from the moment that Article 50 was triggered up to the point that the UK staggered out of the EU, must have had a negative effect on the eventual outcome.

How much more time could have been spent on actual negotiation and planning for Brexit if the whole process wasnít bedeviled by Tory infighting, General elections, a Tory leadership contest, etc., etc.

The Tory decision that the Government of the day, and no one else, should be solely responsible for the Brexit process was arrogance of the highest order.

As soon as the result of the referendum was known a cross party Brexit Committee should have been enacted, but of course that would have caused division within the Tory ranks, so was not considered.

Throughout the whole sorry process it has been Party before country as far as the Tories are concerned. Thatís what got us into it, thatís what hamstrung the negotiations and that is what continues to poison the UK/EU relationship.
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Old 13th Oct 2021, 09:17
  #11996 (permalink)  
 
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This is going over old ground, but to retain access to the single market we'd had to accept Freedom of Movement and EU standards etc - it was always going to be a hardish Brexit because accepting either wasn't "getting Brexit done". To be honest I think we did well to get away with no tariffs...
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Old 13th Oct 2021, 09:19
  #11997 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by pug View Post
I get what youíre saying, but I think youíre taking a rather simplistic viewpoint.

Truth is nobody knew; my employer at the time of the referendum and for a couple of years after, were clear to their staff that they had no idea what Brexit would entail and therefore couldnít plan for it effectively. They are a big name company in the service sector, if I understand correctly what youíre suggesting then in your opinion they should have had a team of people studying WTO rules and planning for the Ďworstí.
I worked with a bigger company in the service sector as well, and they did prepare for a hard brexit for the original brexit date. All in all at a cost in the hundreds of millions. Because not to prepare for that would be simple negligence by the management team making them liable to shareholder lawsuits. And yes, they did use EU guidance, as well as standard WTO (not much in that sector) rules as the information required. Which meant they could continue to trade uninterrupted once brexit happened. They were prepared.
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Old 13th Oct 2021, 09:27
  #11998 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by SWBKCB View Post
Do none of these companies pay big money to Trade Associations?

cos we can always apply pressure on the govt to change anything we don't like (say be engineering some sort of shortage...)
Not when that government is so arrogant as to presume they know all there is to know about it, whilst the evidence shows they don't. You can keep repeating the mantra that those companies "should have known", but know what? If they'd prepared for WTO that would have been wrong too.
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Old 13th Oct 2021, 09:29
  #11999 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Denti View Post
I worked with a bigger company in the service sector as well, and they did prepare for a hard brexit for the original brexit date. All in all at a cost in the hundreds of millions. Because not to prepare for that would be simple negligence by the management team making them liable to shareholder lawsuits. And yes, they did use EU guidance, as well as standard WTO (not much in that sector) rules as the information required. Which meant they could continue to trade uninterrupted once brexit happened. They were prepared.
That makes a degree of sense for a large company with the resources to draw on: but for small & medium, a cost of "millions of pounds" would have bankrupted them overnight. But, as our PM has been quoted as saying, "f%^k business"...
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Old 13th Oct 2021, 09:44
  #12000 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Avionker View Post
It seems to me that the amount of time that was wasted, from the moment that Article 50 was triggered up to the point that the UK staggered out of the EU, must have had a negative effect on the eventual outcome.

How much more time could have been spent on actual negotiation and planning for Brexit if the whole process wasnít bedeviled by Tory infighting, General elections, a Tory leadership contest, etc., etc.

The Tory decision that the Government of the day, and no one else, should be solely responsible for the Brexit process was arrogance of the highest order.

As soon as the result of the referendum was known a cross party Brexit Committee should have been enacted, but of course that would have caused division within the Tory ranks, so was not considered.

Throughout the whole sorry process it has been Party before country as far as the Tories are concerned. Thatís what got us into it, thatís what hamstrung the negotiations and that is what continues to poison the UK/EU relationship.
Which is all entirely correct, and it should shame the Conservative Party for decades to come.

But even if a your Brexit Committee had organised the negotiations, I doubt whether a better deal could have been done. For the simple reason that the EU were never going to allow special privileges to an ex-member who wanted to be in competition with in-members. And the impossible conundrum of where to place an Irish border. An honest Brexit Committee would have to finally say "This is the best we can do and it's not good enough." Perhaps that might have led to another referendum?
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