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BREXIT

Old 18th Aug 2019, 13:56
  #1141 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by pax britanica View Post

Meanwhile our increasingly desperate PM, who realises, or has more likely been told, that announcing to the world he will leave the EU come what may makes our negotiating position even worse, is now already is running off to France and Germany to tell(!!) yes tell their leaders that there must !! yes must be a new deal from their side to solve a problem that is entirely not just our fault as a nation but mostly his as a person. Delusion ?
This might not happen. The guy has proven unreliable in the past, chances are that he'll balk at the moment of putting his imprudent words into action...

The UK might ask for still another delay...

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Old 18th Aug 2019, 13:59
  #1142 (permalink)  
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Old 18th Aug 2019, 14:08
  #1143 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Fitter2 View Post
There is still (very little) time for the EU to come to its senses to avoid an outcome that I (and many others) believe will damage the EU more than the UK.
Care to elaborate on what the rationale is for the idea of the EU being more damaged than the UK by the brexit ?
Any economic facts ? Any sector of the EU being heavily dependent on the UK ?
Or is it just an irrational belief ?


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Old 18th Aug 2019, 14:11
  #1144 (permalink)  
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A statement on the #YellowHammer leak from Ian Duncan Smith and Owen Paterson.

“This operation yellow hammer leak is the version of what the contingency executive put together. We remember attending a briefing on privy council terms which they said was not worst case but reasonable worst case. Theresa May had asked for this to be done. It was obviously project fear dressed up.

For example, on the delays at the port we asked if they had discussed their expectation with the port authorities of Calais/pas du Nord who had already said that there would be no extra delays at Calais and they said, (after a great deal of shuffling of feet) ‘no’. We asked why not and they said they had not been asked to do so. There were other areas where it was clear they had not been asked to get balance but instead dress up previous versions other worst case scenarios.

The whole thing was an attempt to frighten us and didn’t stand up to scrutiny. We have never seen officials look so uneasy under questioning.

The fact that this document was ‘found’ in a Westminster Pub tells you all you need to know about this continuing establishment plot to sow fear in people’s minds. This is an abuse of the proper use of the civil Service and must be stopped.

Those who leaked this tired old document need to recognise that we are beyond scare stories and into finally delivering Brexit by 31st Oct.”





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Old 18th Aug 2019, 14:51
  #1145 (permalink)  
 
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How many of the contributors represented here, start and conduct their business negotiations from the standpoint of announcing their final position.

I have conducted negotiations across every level of business and what I have, or don't have in my back pocket, is nobody's business unless I am ready to show my hand. I know what my bottom lines are, and the objective is never to disclose anything to anybody. I also don't give away a credit unless I have at least a matching offer from the opposition.

It is my sincere hope that Boris continues to, neither deny, nor confirm, anything, apply spin, cry wolf, mis-inform, and generally unsettle the media and the EU to the point of distraction and disagreement. Yes, this is a strategy for business since we are well beyond anarchic politicking.

Anything else will not deliver the best outcome or achieve the will of the people .

IG
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Old 18th Aug 2019, 14:52
  #1146 (permalink)  
 
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Care to elaborate on what the rationale is for the idea of the EU being more damaged than the UK by the brexit ?
Any economic facts ? Any sector of the EU being heavily dependent on the UK ?
Or is it just an irrational belief ?
Germany is the industrial powerhouse of the EU. Germany is in recession.

Unlike the UK’s contraction this quarter, the German one is based on much less sound fundamentals. Overall year on year, the German economy’s growth rate is just 0.4%compared to the UK’s 1.2%. The Chief Business Editor of respected German broadsheet Welt has said that Germany has become “the sick man of Europe”.
GDP has now fallen in two of the last four quarters in both Germany and Italy
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Old 18th Aug 2019, 15:19
  #1147 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Fitter2 View Post
Germany is the industrial powerhouse of the EU. Germany is in recession.



GDP has now fallen in two of the last four quarters in both Germany and Italy
Well, obviously World Economics was not your best subject... Germany has such a huge reserve that it can sustain itself like no other country in Europe. Watch / listen to their News bulletins. In any case, "when the Fats are thin... the Thins are dead!!!.... They'll take a hit but all odds are they will get over it. Italy, seing what a mess Brexit is, is about to do a U turn and is about to give The League a big headache... wait a few weeks. Very interesting to watch to what extend Brexiteers are going to go to commit suicide!!!. Luckily, the majority of your MPs and of the people are watching closely... EU is about to lauch the biggest Infrastructure Investment they have never had, thanks to the price of borrowed money and all the trillions inversters will not risk in the actual world situation. In a way, thank you Trump's, the Chinese's and Putin's clique... they are working for the EU.

Last edited by alicopter; 18th Aug 2019 at 15:34.
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Old 18th Aug 2019, 15:22
  #1148 (permalink)  
 
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Corbyn tells us today that no deal would be really serious; which is odd from someone who’s blocked any and every deal that’s been put forward. He’ll supposedly negotiate a better one. But how, when he’s undermined his own position in advance by stating he’ll accept any terms however ruinous to avoid no deal. Almost as if he doesn’t care about the outcome so long as he gets to No 10...
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Old 18th Aug 2019, 15:29
  #1149 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Fitter2 View Post
Germany is the industrial powerhouse of the EU. Germany is in recession.
Well, er yes, and what has that to do with the Brexit and the fact that it is supposed to damage the EU more thant the UK ?
BTW, isn't the powerhouse of the EU also the UK's powerhouse at the moment ?

Maybe prudent to wait till your chickens are hatched, that is after the 1st of November ?
That is if your politicians hold their word ;-)

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Old 18th Aug 2019, 15:55
  #1150 (permalink)  
 
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All this going around the houses about whether leaving the EU will be bad for Britain is simply ignoring the point that there was a majority in a democratic vote (perhaps the most democratic vote ever because every one counted) to leave the EU and that 'the establishment' are attempting to ignore and reverse that decision by any means possible.

What would we say if there was a GE and Labour (under Corbyn) got elected on an extreme manifesto that the incumbent considered would be bad for, and damage the country, using that as an excuse to refuse to relinquish office and carry-on as before.

I should think that there would be rioting on the streets.
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Old 18th Aug 2019, 16:47
  #1151 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Imagegear View Post
How many of the contributors represented here, start and conduct their business negotiations from the standpoint of announcing their final position.

I have conducted negotiations across every level of business and what I have, or don't have in my back pocket, is nobody's business unless I am ready to show my hand. I know what my bottom lines are, and the objective is never to disclose anything to anybody. I also don't give away a credit unless I have at least a matching offer from the opposition.

It is my sincere hope that Boris continues to, neither deny, nor confirm, anything, apply spin, cry wolf, mis-inform, and generally unsettle the media and the EU to the point of distraction and disagreement. Yes, this is a strategy for business since we are well beyond anarchic politicking.

Anything else will not deliver the best outcome or achieve the will of the people .

IG
I totally and utterly agree, when May rolled over and took no deal off the table, the EU must have been laughing all the way to the bank, even the negotiations were being held on the EU's home ground as opposed to here, or split between both locations, it felt at times that we were being screwed royally over and over again.
And what is worse these so called politicians still cannot see that the one bargaining chip that we have left that is credible is to simply walk away £35 odd billions still in our pockets. It may hurt us I agree, but sure as the day is long, it will hurt them just as much, not just in losing markets in the short term, but the gaping big £35 billion or whatever gap in their budget will need to be filled, and that will have repercussions in EU Countries.
True no one has left before, but there are plenty of countries out there that do well not being in the EU and trade in and out the EU. They say it will cost us a fortune and put us back, well Germany survived reunification and modernising half a Country.
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Old 18th Aug 2019, 16:58
  #1152 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by topradio View Post
All this going around the houses about whether leaving the EU will be bad for Britain is simply ignoring the point that there was a majority in a democratic vote (perhaps the most democratic vote ever because every one counted) to leave the EU and that 'the establishment' are attempting to ignore and reverse that decision by any means possible.

What would we say if there was a GE and Labour (under Corbyn) got elected on an extreme manifesto that the incumbent considered would be bad for, and damage the country, using that as an excuse to refuse to relinquish office and carry-on as before.

I should think that there would be rioting on the streets.

Whataboutism
noun

a conversational tactic in which a person responds to an argument or attack by changing the subject to focus on someone else’s misconduct, implying that all criticism is invalid because no one is completely blameless:
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Old 18th Aug 2019, 18:11
  #1153 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by ORAC View Post


A statement on the #YellowHammer leak from Ian Duncan Smith and Owen Paterson.

“This operation yellow hammer leak is the version of what the contingency executive put together. We remember attending a briefing on privy council terms which they said was not worst case but reasonable worst case. Theresa May had asked for this to be done. It was obviously project fear dressed up.

For example, on the delays at the port we asked if they had discussed their expectation with the port authorities of Calais/pas du Nord who had already said that there would be no extra delays at Calais and they said, (after a great deal of shuffling of feet) ‘no’. We asked why not and they said they had not been asked to do so. There were other areas where it was clear they had not been asked to get balance but instead dress up previous versions other worst case scenarios.

The whole thing was an attempt to frighten us and didn’t stand up to scrutiny. We have never seen officials look so uneasy under questioning.

The fact that this document was ‘found’ in a Westminster Pub tells you all you need to know about this continuing establishment plot to sow fear in people’s minds. This is an abuse of the proper use of the civil Service and must be stopped.

Those who leaked this tired old document need to recognise that we are beyond scare stories and into finally delivering Brexit by 31st Oct.”







Given the names in the first line, with a further contribution from that nice Mr Gove, as non of them are capable of telling the truth, then we await the criteria in the leak becoming part of the population of the UK's daily lives...just in time for the annual emotional blackmail season as well.

Interesting to learn there are those on here so dogmatic about a "no deal " exit, who, far from unsurprisingly, indicate they are secure from any detrimental effects on their life that will only affect lesser mortals.
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Old 18th Aug 2019, 18:45
  #1154 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Sallyann1234 View Post

Whataboutism
noun

a conversational tactic in which a person responds to an argument or attack by changing the subject to focus on someone else’s misconduct, implying that all criticism is invalid because no one is completely blameless:
Nonsense! what I'm pointing out is that we have a system in this country where we vote every 5 years or so and expect that the outcome of our vote will be respected.

If that process is simply a sham and the result can be ignored if it's inconvenient then we're a banana republic.
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Old 18th Aug 2019, 19:11
  #1155 (permalink)  
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KnC, how about the Government of Gibraltar then? They voted about 98% remain - so not notoriously biased towards leave?

Yellowhammer is obsolete and outdated about not just Gibraltar, but it’s entire contents. Presumably because those ex-minsters leaking it no longer have access to the current situation......


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Old 18th Aug 2019, 19:25
  #1156 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by NutLoose View Post
the one bargaining chip that we have left that is credible is to simply walk away £35 odd billions still in our pockets. It may hurt us I agree, but sure as the day is long, it will hurt them just as much, not just in losing markets in the short term, but the gaping big £35 billion or whatever gap in their budget will need to be filled, and that will have repercussions in EU Countries.


So in your opinion, the main reason for success after brexit, is you will leave with EU's money in your pocket^^!
Supposing you can get away with it, whose pocket are you gonna get your subsidies from, once the money is spent ?

Are there any serious studies as to what assets the UK might count on for its prosperity once it's on its own ?

True no one has left before, but there are plenty of countries out there that do well not being in the EU and trade in and out the EU.
Maybe the way to succes is not announcing you'll not honour your commitments...

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Old 18th Aug 2019, 19:48
  #1157 (permalink)  
 
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Fly Aiprt, Nutloose also seems to forget that the UK will have to negotiate a trade deal with the EU at a later date. Withholding £35b will ensure that those will not start of on friendly terms.

At least every British citizen will get an unicorn out of it. Just fencing of my land to keep our quartet in.
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Old 18th Aug 2019, 20:03
  #1158 (permalink)  
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Supposing you can get away with it, whose pocket are you gonna get your subsidies from, once the money is spent?

Are there any serious studies as to what assets the UK might count on for its prosperity once it's on its own ?
Hmmm -Our own? The UK pays a net amount of above £15B into the EU each year. The assets we we might count in are those that generate the above surplus.

Since the EU currently has a very large trade surplus in trade with the UK, which it might lose if the UK was locked out of the EU market and was forced to do trades with out providers; excluding internal political reasons, it makes sense for the EU to do a free trade deal with the UK once it has left.

It it also makes sense politically not to drive the nearest and largest market elsewhere. To quote from an article last month from Brussels.....

“The EU is working on a strategy to avoid a ‘Brexit cold war’ amid fears that relations between Brussels and London could break down completely after a no-deal Brexit..... EU officials hope that in such a scenario trade talks could act as a bridge to avoid permanently scarring relations.....

“We need a bridge. We need to avoid both sides hunkering down in their bunkers,” one EU diplomat said”......

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Old 18th Aug 2019, 20:13
  #1159 (permalink)  


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Quite apart from the agree or disagree argument I have trawled through the umpteen pages of this and still have one simple question regarding all this:
How is it possible to block a no-deal exit without an agreement? (Other than a complete retraction)
In my simple world it appears that the default position is the said no deal - even a time extension only prolongs the problem. How even is Parliament able to block a no deal? Is Anything other than an agreement nothing but delaying tactics?
I just don't get it ???
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Old 18th Aug 2019, 20:18
  #1160 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by CEJM View Post
Fly Aiprt, Nutloose also seems to forget that the UK will have to negotiate a trade deal with the EU at a later date. Withholding £35b will ensure that those will not start of on friendly terms.
Those "no-deal-Brexiteers" can be so forgetful...;-)
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