Jet Blast Topics that don't fit the other forums. Rules of Engagement apply.

BREXIT

Old 6th Aug 2019, 11:10
  #801 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Sep 2018
Location: Yorkshire
Posts: 25
I am still trying to work out EU logic:

The EU insists that the 'backstop' has to remain in place "in order to protect the Irish border".

The 'backstop' has been rejected by the UK Parliament three times.

The EU insisting on the 'backstop' makes a 'no deal exit' most likely.

The UK leaving without a deal will give no 'protection' to the Irish border.

So, insisting on the 'backstop' is most likely to mean no 'protection' for the Irish border.

Do the EU know what they are on about?

I think the most coherent approach to this is that of the Monster Raving Loony Party who state that there will be no need for a backstop as they will have Alec Stewart as their wicketkeeper.
NoelEvans is offline  
Old 6th Aug 2019, 11:20
  #802 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Feb 2007
Location: Currently within the EU
Posts: 334
Originally Posted by CargoMatatu View Post
rogerg
And you believe what Trump says?
I believe what Trump says. He knows he can get a wonderful trade deal with the UK. Wonderful for "America First" of course.

Sallyann1234 is offline  
Old 6th Aug 2019, 11:32
  #803 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Nov 2007
Location: Northampton
Posts: 513
All I was saying is that you can find news to support anything you want. I just prefer the positive. Who knows?
rogerg is online now  
Old 6th Aug 2019, 11:58
  #804 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Aug 2001
Location: se england
Posts: 1,156
Points to ponder

Trade

Meanwhile, Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab will begin a tour of North America on Tuesday as part of a bid to "fire up" the UK's trade relationships with countries outside the EU.

Mr Raab said the foreign ministers he saw at a meeting of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations in Thailand last week expressed a "consistent warmth" for the UK and a "desire to work more closely with us". (fire and warmth- odd words to use, I am sure ASEAN are happy to do a trade deal with a desperate Britain lead by a desperate government -that probably accounts for the warmth ) And does Mr Rabb know where Mexico is as he seems to have severe orientation issues closer to home

However, the former US treasury secretary, Larry Summers, said the UK was "delusional" if it believed it could secure a post-Brexit trade deal with Washington.
He told BBC Radio 4's Today programme: "Britain has no leverage, Britain is desperate... it needs an agreement very soon. When you have a desperate partner, that's when you strike the hardest bargain."

So while all Brexit supporters are not stupid, though a great many are those in power clearly are -who in their right mind would declare to the world -we are leaving on 31 October whatever giving away any negotiation leverage we may have on trade with the rest of the world the targets two nations of which USA and China respect only power and leverage. And as for the general health of the economy tell that to the 4000 Tesco staff getting laid off today or the thousands of (American owned) ASDA staff who have been given a choice of signing new downgraded contracts or get sacked

And as for the car, industry cars are assembled in countries they are not built their the parts come from all over the place and yes corporations close plants that are the most expensive but not if those places happen to be in Germany France or Japan where most the relevant companies are head quartered

pax britanica is offline  
Old 6th Aug 2019, 12:35
  #805 (permalink)  
I don't own this space under my name. I should have leased it while I still could
 
Join Date: Dec 2002
Location: Lincolnshire
Age: 76
Posts: 16,622
Aye, wholly unwarranted enthusiasm, let's be pessimistic and wait.
Pontius Navigator is offline  
Old 6th Aug 2019, 12:42
  #806 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Mar 2019
Location: French Alps
Posts: 310
Originally Posted by NoelEvans View Post
The 'backstop' has been rejected by the UK Parliament three times.
Understandably : leaving EU while still having a free-of-duty backdoor to it via the Northern Ireland border is very appealing...to the UK.

Fly Aiprt is offline  
Old 6th Aug 2019, 14:07
  #807 (permalink)  
Thought police antagonist
 
Join Date: Jul 2003
Location: Where I always have been...firmly in the real world
Posts: 936
A nation on the brink !......well, almost, but, it's reassuring to learn the obesity levels at least will be maintained once we leave....

However, the far more serious aspect is the supply of foodstuffs and the potential for real shortages once Boris does his " Charge of the Light Brigade " reprise on Oct 31st....

https://www.theguardian.com/business...no-deal-brexit
Krystal n chips is online now  
Old 6th Aug 2019, 15:30
  #808 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jun 2011
Location: The World
Posts: 531
Originally Posted by pax britanica View Post
However, the former US treasury secretary, Larry Summers, said the UK was "delusional" if it believed it could secure a post-Brexit trade deal with Washington.
He told BBC Radio 4's Today programme: "Britain has no leverage, Britain is desperate... it needs an agreement very soon. When you have a desperate partner, that's when you strike the hardest bargain."
And size.
The UK GDP is half the size of Japan, one fifth of China (and rapidly shrinking) and one seventh of the US and the EU. How can it expect to negotiate a favorable trade deal with a major nation from a position of weakness? Even India will soon overtake it in the size of it's economy. If the UK loses Scotland and Northern Ireland eventually it will decrease in size by 15%. And trade agreements on average take 5-10 years to figure out. If the UK is desperate for any type of deal it'll rushed and full of errors, and not at all favorable to it's position. Even then a few years of no trade agreements which will have to occur if leave is accomplished on Oct 31st will contract the UK GDP even more, further weakening it's bargaining position. It'd be an ongoing cycle.

Plus sources in the US Congress have stated they will stop any UK-US trade deal unless something is solved with regards to the Irish border and backstop that won't break the Good Friday Agreement that looks unlikely.
dr dre is offline  
Old 6th Aug 2019, 16:50
  #809 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Dec 2011
Location: uk
Age: 62
Posts: 55
Originally Posted by dr dre View Post
And size.
The UK GDP is half the size of Japan, one fifth of China (and rapidly shrinking) and one seventh of the US and the EU. How can it expect to negotiate a favorable trade deal with a major nation from a position of weakness? Even India will soon overtake it in the size of it's economy. If the UK loses Scotland and Northern Ireland eventually it will decrease in size by 15%. And trade agreements on average take 5-10 years to figure out. If the UK is desperate for any type of deal it'll rushed and full of errors, and not at all favorable to it's position. Even then a few years of no trade agreements which will have to occur if leave is accomplished on Oct 31st will contract the UK GDP even more, further weakening it's bargaining position. It'd be an ongoing cycle.

Plus sources in the US Congress have stated they will stop any UK-US trade deal unless something is solved with regards to the Irish border and backstop that won't break the Good Friday Agreement that looks unlikely.
Trade deals. I wonder sometimes if the UK wanting Brexit at all cost has something to do with the fact that the EU since April is screening Foreign Investment and that puts London in a "tricky" position ref laundering/tracking money/tax avoidance? But does it make sense if the City looses access to the rest of the EU market? Mind you, if it is why France has taken the lead, even in front of Germany for Foreign Investment lately, it is a nice gift!. Thanks to this switch and the flux of new Corporations going into Paris (even with the new taxes soon to hit them!) they are a welcomed break so, thank you Brexit somehow. Are Russians still queueing up in Malta Offices buying EU passports? Seems to me that so much dirty money being available to be invested in "clean" circuits, it's reaching a breaking point. My own bank in France is asking me justification of a few transfers from UK to their coffers... if they are that thorough with ALL the fluxes, that's a good move, I don't mind... knowing they won't allow the City to be the next Tax Haven or Singapore on Thames... (Dream on!!! What else???)
alicopter is offline  
Old 6th Aug 2019, 17:04
  #810 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Oct 2018
Location: Ferrara
Posts: 768
Summers in detail........................

The former US Treasury Secretary Larry Summers has said he does not expect the UK to secure a trade deal with the US soon after Brexit.

"While this is at the top of your agenda, in the United States, we have an election that will be more preoccupying than any presidential election in the last 50 years," Mr Summers, who also served in the Obama administration, told Today. "We have economic conflict with China and - even on top of that - the deterioration of the pound is going to further complicate the negotiating picture," he continued.
"We will see it as giving Britain an artificial comparative advantage and make us think about the needs to retaliate against Britain, not to welcome Britain with new trade agreements."

Even if the two countries could come to an agreement, Mr Summers said the UK is in a weak negotiating position.

"Britain has much less to give than Europe as a whole did, therefore less reason for the United States to make concessions. You make more concessions dealing with a wealthy man than you do dealing with a poor man. Britain has no leverage, Britain is desperate, Britain has nothing else, it needs an agreement very soon. When you have a desperate partner, that's when you strike the hardest bargain."

Asturias56 is offline  
Old 6th Aug 2019, 18:13
  #811 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Aug 2002
Location: Surrey, UK.
Posts: 0
Summers said the UK is in a weak negotiating position.
surprised he didn't just say UK back of the line (oops, "queue") like his other Democrat chum.
rustle is offline  
Old 6th Aug 2019, 19:40
  #812 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Sep 2018
Location: Yorkshire
Posts: 25
Originally Posted by pax britanica View Post
... the former US treasury secretary, Larry Summers, said the UK was "delusional" ...
Do we have our past politicians going around pontificating to other countries on how to run their affairs?

Oh, sorry. I momentarily forgot Bliar.
NoelEvans is offline  
Old 6th Aug 2019, 19:41
  #813 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Sep 2018
Location: Yorkshire
Posts: 25
I see the Eeyores are still at it.

P N, nice post!
NoelEvans is offline  
Old 6th Aug 2019, 19:44
  #814 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Nov 2018
Location: LUX
Posts: 81
Originally Posted by NoelEvans View Post
Do we have our past politicians going around pontificating to other countries on how to run their affairs?
Nigel Farage
Jacob Reece Mogg
Boris Johnson

just to name a few...
SaulGoodman is offline  
Old 6th Aug 2019, 20:19
  #815 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Sep 2018
Location: Yorkshire
Posts: 25
Originally Posted by SaulGoodman View Post


Nigel Farage
Jacob Reece Mogg
Boris Johnson

just to name a few...
You are getting past and present confused. (I hope that you are not referring to comments by them about the EU, because the EU is not, yet, a country!) As Rees Mogg would probably say in Latin, "See the light"! (Apologies for the pun.)
NoelEvans is offline  
Old 6th Aug 2019, 21:22
  #816 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Sep 2000
Posts: 528
I’m looking forward to Brexit!
qwertyuiop is offline  
Old 6th Aug 2019, 21:32
  #817 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Nov 2018
Location: LUX
Posts: 81
Originally Posted by NoelEvans View Post
You are getting past and present confused. (I hope that you are not referring to comments by them about the EU, because the EU is not, yet, a country!) As Rees Mogg would probably say in Latin, "See the light"! (Apologies for the pun.)
you have present politicians doing just that. Even worse...
SaulGoodman is offline  
Old 6th Aug 2019, 21:48
  #818 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Mar 2019
Location: French Alps
Posts: 310
Originally Posted by NoelEvans View Post
You are getting past and present confused
Isn't Johnson a future past politician^^?

Fly Aiprt is offline  
Old 6th Aug 2019, 22:23
  #819 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Apr 2001
Location: yes
Posts: 175
Originally Posted by NoelEvans View Post
I am still trying to work out EU logic:

The EU insists that the 'backstop' has to remain in place "in order to protect the Irish border".

The 'backstop' has been rejected by the UK Parliament three times.

The EU insisting on the 'backstop' makes a 'no deal exit' most likely.

The UK leaving without a deal will give no 'protection' to the Irish border.

So, insisting on the 'backstop' is most likely to mean no 'protection' for the Irish border.

Do the EU know what they are on about?

I think the most coherent approach to this is that of the Monster Raving Loony Party who state that there will be no need for a backstop as they will have Alec Stewart as their wicketkeeper.
I'm still wondering at British logic. The backstop as requested by the British only kicks in if talks fail. Do the British know what they're on about?

Clearly not.

Also why is everyone pretending the backstop is the only reason the withdrawal agreement was rejected. Blame Paddy is natural English default but the reality is that even the Labour Party objected to parts of it which is a Tory document. Not EU, Tory.

Let's deal with the reality, in 2016 no one thought a hard Brexit was a possibility nor was it even a consideration. But here we are.

Does anyone think that a hard Brexit which is extremely damaging to Britain and Ireland and some damage to some EU countries which almost inevitably lead to the break up of the the UK is a good thing? Apparently yes it seems and the clown in number 10 is happy to risk this option.

No one voted for this. The insanity of it is clear.

One other thing, if the soon to be no longer United Kingdom leaves the EU by an anti democratic sleight of hand from the Johnson and his spin doctor Cummins. What will the rump that is England look like?


Steepclimb is offline  
Old 6th Aug 2019, 22:55
  #820 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: UAE
Posts: 233
[QUOTE=pax britanica;10538037]Points to ponder

Trade

Meanwhile, Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab will begin a tour of North America on Tuesday as part of a bid to "fire up" the UK's trade relationships with countries outside the EU.

Mr Raab said the foreign ministers he saw at a meeting of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations in Thailand last week expressed a "consistent warmth" for the UK and a "desire to work more closely with us". (fire and warmth- odd words to use, I am sure ASEAN are happy to do a trade deal with a desperate Britain lead by a desperate government -that probably accounts for the warmth ) And does Mr Rabb know where Mexico is as he seems to have severe orientation issues closer to home

However, the former US treasury secretary, Larry Summers, said the UK was "delusional" if it believed it could secure a post-Brexit trade deal with Washington.
He told BBC Radio 4's Today programme: "Britain has no leverage, Britain is desperate... it needs an agreement very soon. When you have a desperate partner, that's when you strike the hardest bargain

Hmmm ... would this be the same Larry Summers that lost Harvard University $ 1.8 billion with his wonderful investment strategy ? Shouldn’t take him very seriously if I were you , he’d give Gordon Brown a run for his money as an economic advisor
Jack D is offline  

Thread Tools
Search this Thread

Contact Us - Archive - Advertising - Cookie Policy - Privacy Statement - Terms of Service - Do Not Sell My Personal Information

Copyright © 2018 MH Sub I, LLC dba Internet Brands. All rights reserved. Use of this site indicates your consent to the Terms of Use.