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BREXIT

Old 3rd Aug 2019, 20:52
  #741 (permalink)  
 
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andrewn,

"The economy has continued to grow unsustainably in spite of the leave vote and shows no real signs of slowing down."

And there you have it, the unbridled untruth. The facts are that investment is down across the board, decisions to either relocate or close manufacturing operations are rife across the land, with most decisions being taken in boardrooms overseas, many in the EU, and thousands of jobs are in the process of disappearing. And all this while we are still IN the EU single market and customs union.

Last week BMW announced that they have relocated their X3 engine manufacturing operation from Hams Hall in Birmingham to Germany. They have done this as the engines are destined for BMW X3 production in South Africa, but they are then exported world wide from there as products with sufficient EU content to have them classed as EU products. BMW made the move as the engines will be classified as non EU and therefore the percentage of EU content would dip below the threshold. PSA have advised that a no deal would see them close Ellesmere Port, the last Vauxhall manufacturing plant making cars in the UK. The Dutch Government has issued a warning to Dutch companies to the same effect, advising them to switch component sourcing from the UK to else where within the EU. THIS is the harsh reality of the so called plain sailing of trading on WTO rules that a no deal exit will produce.
Multiply that across the enormous number of UK companies supplying components into the EU and you see the size of the problem. Add this to Japanese, Indian and US and Korean companies considering relocating their plants within the EU as that is where the majority of the production goes, and you begin to see the massive hit that the UK economy is going to take as of November 1st.

Then you have the problem that the financial services, chemical and pharmaceutical industries will face, and the farmers who will see instant 40% tariffs on 46% of their produce.

And you wonder why people are fearful?
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Old 3rd Aug 2019, 20:59
  #742 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by Fly Aiprt View Post
Maybe the UK has "been leaving" for too long. They should have left, by now ;-)
Or maybe they're not sure they wanna leave ?
I voted remain. Once
I expected we would leave 3 years ago.
I don't recall anything about Article 50 needing to be declared some time in the future. As we didn't declare Article 50 I assumed my Government was getting all its ducks in a row, declare Article 50, and follow a prepared time table.
I did not realise they would do sod all effective planning and then declare Article 50.
I never dreamt that two years later they would be no nearer leaving.

The problem was simple. Cameron never thought we would vote leave. All Tories, bar one, recognised the cluster flock and anointed a remained as PM. She in turn appointment a heavy pro-remain cabinet and a buffoon as Brexit negotiator with a remain chief of staff.

After three years of stagnation getting out is the quickest way to move on. A second referendum or a general election might produce a remain vote but it might not. Either way it would just drag on.
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Old 3rd Aug 2019, 21:15
  #743 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Pontius Navigator View Post
I voted remain. Once
I expected we would leave 3 years ago.
I don't recall anything about Article 50 needing to be declared some time in the future. As we didn't declare Article 50 I assumed my Government was getting all its ducks in a row, declare Article 50, and follow a prepared time table.
I did not realise they would do sod all effective planning and then declare Article 50.
I never dreamt that two years later they would be no nearer leaving.

The problem was simple. Cameron never thought we would vote leave. All Tories, bar one, recognised the cluster flock and anointed a remained as PM. She in turn appointment a heavy pro-remain cabinet and a buffoon as Brexit negotiator with a remain chief of staff.

After three years of stagnation getting out is the quickest way to move on. A second referendum or a general election might produce a remain vote but it might not. Either way it would just drag on.
@PN See? You voted Remain and you say yourself you did not know anything about what it was all about!!!! Who did? This Referendum (I have been living and paying taxes in the UK for donkey's years and like 3 millions others like me, did not have a say in it... this alone would have made a big difference in the result!) was not explained, people still do not understand anything about the EU apart fron having heard stupid allegations for years, many of them coming out of a hole belonging to a well known journalist/politian/clown/latin lover we have the privilege to follow at high speed over Dover cliffs.
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Old 3rd Aug 2019, 22:18
  #744 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by alicopter View Post
@PN See? You voted Remain and you say yourself you did not know anything about what it was all about!!!! Who did? This Referendum (I have been living and paying taxes in the UK for donkey's years and like 3 millions others like me, did not have a say in it... this alone would have made a big difference in the result!) was not explained, people still do not understand anything about the EU apart fron having heard stupid allegations for years, many of them coming out of a hole belonging to a well known journalist/politian/clown/latin lover we have the privilege to follow at high speed over Dover cliffs.
And that's the truth. In a way I want no deal Brexit to be proved right. But I'm in a privileged position and it would affect me little. A bit like all those Tories. They don't care about the less privileged the men and women who keep Britain going. It's all about them and their precious party. Boris Johnson has literally no concept of what it's like to grub about in the real world, living from one wage slip to the next.
The little people are not his concern.

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Old 3rd Aug 2019, 23:48
  #745 (permalink)  
 
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Caring about the little people is such a European ideal. What nobility is left in Europe after the French and Russian revolutions? Peasants ruling peasants, but some are more equal than others. George Orwell got it right when he wrote Animal Farm and nothing has changed since.

All of the threats to withdraw businesses from the UK are issued with the caveat, that factories will be closed if they are unprofitable. The UK government will have the power to ensure that foreign investment in the UK remains a profitable exercise when no longer subjected to EU trade rules and restrictions. Businesses close down all the time because they are not making a profit. Car manufacturing in particular is going to undergo radical changes over the next decade or two and this will almost certainly result in China becoming the World's leading manufacturer of electrically powered vehicles. That is where the resources to build such cars exist, that is where the factories and technology exist, and that is where a suitable workforce is available. At some point even further in the future, Africa will probably emerge as an industrial as Chinese technology and infrastructure ages and suffers reduced investment. It is all just part of a continuous cycle.

As for people claimimg that they voted for Brexit but have now changed their minds; I can't claim to have spoken to anyone with that attitude and I do speak to a fair cross section of society regularly. There are a lot of remain supporters who feel that the government should just get on with leaving and that too much bad feeling has been generated to bother trying to remain in the EU. The overarching public opinion would have to be summarised as, leave or stay, just get on with it! Given the referendum result, leaving the EU at the end of October is now more important than how we leave in the minds of the majority of people that have expressed an opinion to me.

Buckle up, its going to be a bumpy ride for the next three months.
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Old 4th Aug 2019, 08:05
  #746 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Curious Pax View Post


Just to pick up 2 points. Firstly the Office of National Statistics reports that rolling three-month growth slowed for the second consecutive month after growth of 0.5% in Quarter 1 2019, and the Bank of England has amended itís growth forecasts for 2019 and 2020 to 1.3% in each year, a long way off the target 2%

Starts on new homes fell in the first quarter, with long term the trend flattening around 220,000 per year according to the FT.

Was anything else you said rooted in reality?
Your point about the economy proves what exactly? Its growing, and has done since the leave vote. Despite Gideon and Carney forecasting meltdown!

Housing, dont get me started on that, the Govt target is 300k per annum, whichever way you look at it there not far off that number. By some measures we've already hit it. I happen to think a sustainable number is about 10% of that figure!

Next...
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Old 4th Aug 2019, 08:09
  #747 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by pr00ne View Post
andrewn,

"The economy has continued to grow unsustainably in spite of the leave vote and shows no real signs of slowing down."

And there you have it, the unbridled untruth. The facts are that investment is down across the board, decisions to either relocate or close manufacturing operations are rife across the land, with most decisions being taken in boardrooms overseas, many in the EU, and thousands of jobs are in the process of disappearing. And all this while we are still IN the EU single market and customs union.

Last week BMW announced that they have relocated their X3 engine manufacturing operation from Hams Hall in Birmingham to Germany. They have done this as the engines are destined for BMW X3 production in South Africa, but they are then exported world wide from there as products with sufficient EU content to have them classed as EU products. BMW made the move as the engines will be classified as non EU and therefore the percentage of EU content would dip below the threshold. PSA have advised that a no deal would see them close Ellesmere Port, the last Vauxhall manufacturing plant making cars in the UK. The Dutch Government has issued a warning to Dutch companies to the same effect, advising them to switch component sourcing from the UK to else where within the EU. THIS is the harsh reality of the so called plain sailing of trading on WTO rules that a no deal exit will produce.
Multiply that across the enormous number of UK companies supplying components into the EU and you see the size of the problem. Add this to Japanese, Indian and US and Korean companies considering relocating their plants within the EU as that is where the majority of the production goes, and you begin to see the massive hit that the UK economy is going to take as of November 1st.

Then you have the problem that the financial services, chemical and pharmaceutical industries will face, and the farmers who will see instant 40% tariffs on 46% of their produce.

And you wonder why people are fearful?
Proone, I dont believe for one minute you are hard of thinking, so I struggle to understand why you cant determine fact from fiction?

Overall the economy is strong, but it's also unbalanced, and has been for a long time, both in terms of over dependence on certain industry sectors and regional inequality.

Sure, Brexit may/will lead to some readjustment of that imbalance, but will it be any worse or better? Neither of us know, so why pretend we do?
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Old 4th Aug 2019, 08:58
  #748 (permalink)  
 
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andrewn,

Fact from fiction? What? I posted facts, hard indisputable facts, and you dismiss them with ridiculous platitudes about the economy being unbalanced and needing readjustment, again, what!? I'm sure that the thousands of car workers facing unemployment in the North and the Midlands will appreciate this odd need for readjustment. I spend about one third of my professional time on M & A commercial legal work, that is Mergers and Acquisitions, and I can tell you for a fact that we are in a deep trough of investment with all major players holding fire on decisions apart from closures and relocations. The maniacal insane idea that you postulate that somehow the economy is unbalanced just beggars belief. It certainly IS unbalanced, but not toward manufacturing, farming and engineering, the sectors that Brexit will devastate. a No Deal Brexit threatens to massively increase that imbalance by reducing yet more of our engineering and manufacturing sectors as well as having a massive damaging impact on farming and food and drink production, thus leaving the economy even more massively tilted toward financial services. Right now it is the consumer economy that is keeping us out of recession, and that consumer confidence will not stand a long period of unrestrained closures and downsizings.
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Old 4th Aug 2019, 09:05
  #749 (permalink)  
 
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pr00ne

Multiply that across the enormous number of UK companies supplying components into the EU and you see the size of the problem. Add this to Japanese, Indian and US and Korean companies considering relocating their plants within the EU as that is where the majority of the production goes, and you begin to see the massive hit that the UK economy is going to take as of November 1st.
Where I take issue is that it won't happen on 1st November, the pound will almost certainly take a big hit if the nuclear button of no-deal is hit on the 31st October, it may or may not bounce back. HOWEVER, rather like placing a frog into a pan of cold water and igniting the gas ring beneath, there will likely be a gradual drip drip of business drifting away from the UK to the EU, and I think the MO of the Brexiteers is that those jobs will be replaced, and UK companies will benefit from wonderful new trade deals that will go some way to mitigate the loss of those businesses that flea the UK once outside the EU.

I am very sceptical as to whether this can happen, which I why I am very pro-EU.
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Old 4th Aug 2019, 09:08
  #750 (permalink)  
 
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proone, car manufacturing is in a deep crisis, largely of its own making... Over-production and outdated tech (Tesla and a couple of others excepted). The whole industry is about to be turned upside down. What's that got to do with Brexit?

Been to Cambridge recently pr00ne? Have you seen how quickly that city is growing, all built off of Science, R&D & pharma...

Industry, and economic growth as a whole, is cyclical. Our challenge is not about how we keep growing the economy by numbers, its about how e grow it SUSTAINABLY and in a more BALANCED way, so that more of the population benefits.
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Old 4th Aug 2019, 09:13
  #751 (permalink)  
 
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ATNotts,

I share your scepticism.

The gradual drip drip of business drifting way from the UK has been going on for a few years now, but will dramatically escalate on Nov 1st when companies realise that this time it actually HAS happened. The likes of BMW, Siemens and PSA have contingency plans in case for a worst case scenario, and NONE of them are good for the UK economy. As to quite how Brexiteers think that the UK can negotiate better deals than the EU totally escapes me. How on earth anyone would justify awarding a better deal to a country of 65m as opposed to a trading block of over 400m, especially when they will have a trade imbalance with the UK already. And who ARE these companies who will benefit from these unicorn based easiest trade deals in history? Most companies who manufacture in the UK on a large scale are foreign owned or have overseas manufacturing subsidiaries already in these other countries. Davies, Fox, Cameron etc, you are going to have a LOT to answer for!
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Old 4th Aug 2019, 09:22
  #752 (permalink)  
 
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andrewn,

What has it got to do with Brexit?

Well, the deep crisis facing the automotive sector, which you are right to identify, involves foreign owned companies. Now on top of this crisis they have Brexit to deal with, with massive disruption to their just in time delivery schedules and tariffs on components and complete vehicles, not to mention the free movement of their staff and employees, both actual and potential. So, what do these companies do to alleviate this crisis? They cut back, and if they have to cut back where best to cut back? In that country that has just erected its own trade barriers and tariffs thereby making existing factories uneconomic, so they close or downsize them in the UK first and foremost, potentially dealing with two issues at once. And the end result is the almost complete eradication of one of our most successful manufacturing industries employing almost a million people directly and many more in the associated supply chains. Add this to the companies who set up here in the first place to manufacture for the EU, and export some 80% of their output to it, and react by relocating their manufacturing plant within the EU, and UK companies who export components to the EU losing business as that will threaten the EU content of their customers end product, and I think that you will see that this has rather a LOT to do with Brexit!
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Old 4th Aug 2019, 09:56
  #753 (permalink)  
 
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Thanks to all who kindly answered my foreigner's questions.
It must be understood that viewed from the outside, the UK is a member state with particular privileges, and for reasons of its own it wishes to leave the EU.
They should have left by the month of March, and yet they are still there.
People don't really bother with who exactly in the UK does, or rather doesn't do his homework, Parliament, Government, Prime Minister, parties, what not.
What is obvious, is the lack of anticipation and preparation of the stakeholders in the UK, and the idea that they hope they'll forever be able to ask for new delays, new advantageous (for them) deals, etc.
Clearly, when one examines the arguments of the leavers and the remainers, as to business booming or receding when - or rather if - they leave, some of them must be wrong.
As for the Europeans, when they see how much the UK has benefited from the EU, they have an idea of who might be wrong and uninformed.
As a participant of this forum, I'd be much interested not in the dreams of the leavers or the nightmares or the remainers, but rather in hearing what will they actually do : how will the border with the Republic of Ireland (= Europe) be implemented, what tariffs on what goods, how will the trucks queuing at Dover be managed, what about pilot licences, how will the British aircraft certification be harmonized with that of the rest of the world etc.
Is work on all these points actually in progress, or are we still in the realm of wishful thinking ?
Thanks
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Old 4th Aug 2019, 10:40
  #754 (permalink)  
 
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This might help with finding out what might, or might not, has been happening since the referendum:

https://www.gov.uk/government/organi...european-union

There are still people who have not read anything throughout that web site and seen all the work for no deal that has been going on for the last three years, but would rather opine that nothing has been done.
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Old 4th Aug 2019, 10:42
  #755 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Fly Aiprt View Post
What is obvious, is the lack of anticipation and preparation of the stakeholders in the UK, and the idea that they hope they'll forever be able to ask for new delays, new advantageous (for them) deals, etc.
I actually agree with this statement, and one of the huge failings of May's time as PM in my eyes is the lack of planning. We should have been preparing not just for Brexit, but for no-deal from the time she took over.

Whatever people think of Boris Johnson, he has made preparation for leaving on 31st October a top priority for his government. Whether we have enough time, I don't know. As a leaver, I wouldn't be against the idea of a limited extension if there was a real possibility of re-negotiating the current deal, but the EU are saying that's not going to happen and I simply don't think Johnson has the electoral arithmetic to get even a revised deal through the house. And he has staked a lot of credibility on actually leaving this time.
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Old 4th Aug 2019, 12:01
  #756 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Andy_S View Post
As a leaver, I wouldn't be against the idea of a limited extension if there was a real possibility of re-negotiating the current deal, but the EU are saying that's not going to happen and I simply don't think Johnson has the electoral arithmetic to get even a revised deal through the house. And he has staked a lot of credibility on actually leaving this time.
Another delay...
To re-re-negociate a deal...
Why not renegociate now ? What is the UK willing to sacrifice in order for the EU to sacrifice something in return ?

I'm afraid I already know what will happen by the end of October :
In the last days, the UK will ask for a new delay (say 6 months) in order "to prepare and renegociate". And nobody in Europe will stand and kick them out, so the delay will be granted.
6 months later, some PM will ask for "just another delay", then...

I'm afraid Europe is stuck for decades with this finicky and unreliable "partner", and the EU parliament will stay paralysed with everybody awaiting the new British episode.
And nobody in Europe with the guts to stand and say "enough, now you go"...

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Old 4th Aug 2019, 12:34
  #757 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Fly Aiprt View Post
Why not renegociate now ? What is the UK willing to sacrifice in order for the EU to sacrifice something in return ?
Why not now? Because the EU have said the current deal is not open for renegotiation. What is the UK willing to sacrifice? Nothing. I only spoke from a personal standpoint when I said I wouldn't object.

Originally Posted by Fly Aiprt View Post
In the last days, the UK will ask for a new delay (say 6 months) in order "to prepare and renegociate".
I don't know how familiar you are with UK politics, but Boris Johnson has staked his entire political credibility on delivering Brexit. To back away from that would probably destroy his career unless he can sell his party and our electorate a real, genuine possibility that the current agreement can be re-negotiated. And for that to happen, the EU will need to soften their position......... There's also a huge danger for him in hanging on, since his effective parliamentary majority is just 1 (One), and that's before you take account of the rebels in his own party. At the moment we will leave by default in which case can say "Job Done", but any further delay puts him at risk of a Vote Of No Confidence and a general election (which he is not certain, by any means, of winning).

Originally Posted by Fly Aiprt View Post
I'm afraid Europe is stuck for decades with this finicky and unreliable "partner", and the EU parliament will stay paralysed with everybody awaiting the new British episode.
The solution is very simple. Refuse any request from the UK for a further extension. And on 31st October you'll be shot of us.
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Old 4th Aug 2019, 17:26
  #758 (permalink)  
 
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the EU parliament will stay paralysed with everybody awaiting the new British episode
The EU Parliament is an expensive, powerless irrelevance. Its existence is a pretence that the EU is a democratic entity. As the majority of the member states have only the haziest idea how a real democracy works, the central power group who run things can get away with it. However, watching the reaction when the Parliament were told who the next set of apparatchiks would be, and the MEPs nominations would be ignored, the natives may become restless.
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Old 4th Aug 2019, 19:30
  #759 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Andy_S View Post
any further delay puts him at risk of a Vote Of No Confidence and a general election (which he is not certain, by any means, of winning).
Not sure to see in what respect this would be a catastrophe.
He'd not be the first PM to procrastinate when the time to put words into action has come...


Originally Posted by Andy_S View Post
The solution is very simple. Refuse any request from the UK for a further extension. And on 31st October you'll be shot of us.
Actually, not.
The British may revoke article 50 up to the last minute.
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Old 4th Aug 2019, 19:39
  #760 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Fitter2 View Post
The EU Parliament is an expensive, powerless irrelevance. Its existence is a pretence that the EU is a democratic entity. As the majority of the member states have only the haziest idea how a real democracy works,
Now, this is interesting.
So why on earth did the British complain that they have been deprived of their liberty, autonomy etc. by this powerless irrelevance ?
Or maybe you were alluding to another Parliament, in a certain member-state, who is making a fool of itself^^?

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