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BREXIT

Old 21st Jan 2020, 13:45
  #4321 (permalink)  
 
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Oh no no no. The IMF has forecast UK economy to outgrow the Eurozone for the next two years. That's not supposed to happen, as anyone from London well knows. Now, IMF have a terrible record of forecasting... but loads of arguments for remaining in the EU were pinned on pessimistic IMF forecasts of doom. What a pickle!
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Old 22nd Jan 2020, 06:33
  #4322 (permalink)  
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After yesterdays glowing self promotional piece for PwC, this one returns to earth and reality......

https://www.theguardian.com/commenti...costs-tory-mps
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Old 22nd Jan 2020, 06:48
  #4323 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by six-sixty View Post
Oh no no no. The IMF has forecast UK economy to outgrow the Eurozone for the next two years. That's not supposed to happen, as anyone from London well knows. Now, IMF have a terrible record of forecasting... but loads of arguments for remaining in the EU were pinned on pessimistic IMF forecasts of doom. What a pickle!
When the IMF is forecasting I assume it is looking at the UK economy as a whole, when in reality the UK is (at least) 2 economies. London and the Southeast; and the rest of the UK. I don't doubt the growth the IMF is forecasting, but I wouldn't mind betting that despite the best (or other) efforts of the new UK government to balance the economy the Southeast will grow by at least twice the amount that the rest of UK will, so those of us outside the Southeast bubble will continue to struggle, or at best bump along the bottom. There are already siren noises coming from Tory MPs (many with very southern accents newly elected to northern constituencies!) railing against HS2, the real benefits of which will be connectivity between Birmingham and the Northeast and Northeast. One Buckinghamshire MP was even intimating that rather than spend money on HS2, the government should be improving services between his area and London.

It is going to be a real uphill task to rebalance the economy when you've got the likes of Facebook announcing 1000 new jobs, all of which COULD have been in Central or Northern England - or indeed Scotland or Wales, but surprise surprise have gone to....yes, you've guessed it....London. Purely in terms of commercial property costs and salary levels it makes little economic sense to put such jobs into London now, but you get the impression that those involved in promoting inward business investment for the UK are based in London, live there, and simply can't see beyond the M25.

Post Brexit, with the now quite likely contraction of manufacturing because of the governments chosen path with regard to the future relationship with EU it's going to be vital that something must done to encourage these kinds of investments to find their way further north and west, certainly if the Tories are not to face a backlash in 5 years time.

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Old 22nd Jan 2020, 07:27
  #4324 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by sidevalve View Post
Odd that the Guardian printed this obvious piece of marketing then.

Officers' Mess Ante Room as fondly imagined by KnC
Brings back memories of a post prandial snooze after a couple of pints for lunch.
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Old 22nd Jan 2020, 09:07
  #4325 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by six-sixty View Post
Oh no no no. The IMF has forecast UK economy to outgrow the Eurozone for the next two years. That's not supposed to happen, as anyone from London well knows. Now, IMF have a terrible record of forecasting... but loads of arguments for remaining in the EU were pinned on pessimistic IMF forecasts of doom. What a pickle!
Did you notice the caveat? I've put it in bold for easy reference.

It reports a new assessment by the International Monetary Fund that the British economy will grow faster than that of any other major European country this year and next if there's an orderly Brexit​​​​​​.
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Old 22nd Jan 2020, 09:17
  #4326 (permalink)  
 
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That's Catch22 though isn't it? An orderly Brexit depends on a large degree of regulatory alignment. That is exactly what Brown Spock said would not be happening at the weekend. And if it did then the usual suspects would be declaring a No Brexit.
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Old 22nd Jan 2020, 09:31
  #4327 (permalink)  
 
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Negotiations are to take place in parallel with the EU and the US, who each insist on their own regulatory alignment.
No problem there then.
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Old 22nd Jan 2020, 10:03
  #4328 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by Sallyann1234 View Post
Negotiations are to take place in parallel with the EU and the US, who each insist on their own regulatory alignment.
No problem there then.
Relax, we have some previous experience in respect of fudging matters.....

" In 1919 Morris Motors took over the French Hotchkiss engine works which had moved to Coventry during the First World War. The Hotchkiss machine tools were of metric thread but metric spanners were not readily available in Britain at the time, so fasteners were made with metric thread but Whitworth heads "

Anyway, metric will be banned in the UK shortly and nothing but British standards permitted......
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Old 22nd Jan 2020, 11:02
  #4329 (permalink)  
 
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...the rebound in the UKs attractiveness had been particularly marked among German, French and Italian chief executives and had returned to levels last seen in 2015, the year before the EU referendum.

https://www.theguardian.com/business...of-global-ceos
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Old 22nd Jan 2020, 11:30
  #4330 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by six-sixty View Post
...the rebound in the UKs attractiveness had been particularly marked among German, French and Italian chief executives and had returned to levels last seen in 2015, the year before the EU referendum.

https://www.theguardian.com/business...of-global-ceos
Do catch up !

vide post #4318 et seq
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Old 22nd Jan 2020, 11:59
  #4331 (permalink)  
 
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Grauniad readers look away now. Can't have Islington prejudice impacted by facts.

I am very puzzled by the often repeated notion of public spending cuts.

As public spending has increased every year from 2006, from just over 450bn UKP to now over 800bn UKP, I would say that there have been no public spending cuts.

Public spending might not have gone up where I want it to go up, such as my local roads, but it has Consistently increased.
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Old 22nd Jan 2020, 12:17
  #4332 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Sallyann1234 View Post
Do catch up !

vide post #4318 et seq
haha fair enough!
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Old 22nd Jan 2020, 12:29
  #4333 (permalink)  
 
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Why do people bang on about differing standards between the UK, EU, USA etc as for the decades preceding the formation of the EU and subsequent to it the respective standards bodies, eg BSI, DIN, AFNOR, ANSI etc have agreed on which standards have equivalence within other countries and thus allowed imports of products which meet the internal standards required by the destination country.

Nothing to do with trade deals, purely establishing technical equivalence.
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Old 22nd Jan 2020, 12:49
  #4334 (permalink)  
 
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I think the argument is that whilst there is standards equivalence some things (such as hormone beef and chlorinated chicken) whilst recognised standards have not been allowed in to the market. Predominantly due to the size of relative markets and thus clout. The argument is that with being a much smaller market post brexit the U.K. will be forced to accept those products of a lower standard if it wants a trade deal with those larger markets.
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Old 22nd Jan 2020, 17:02
  #4335 (permalink)  
 
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Put a label on it.. contains chlorinated chicken. Made in the USA. Let the public decide if they want to pay 6 quid for free range, 4 quid for UK factory or 2 quid for the American stuff..
if your skint it’s a no brainier .. if your loaded pay 15 pounds for and hand reared chicken that has been fed caviar
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Old 22nd Jan 2020, 17:18
  #4336 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by SARF View Post
Put a label on it.. contains chlorinated chicken. Made in the USA. Let the public decide if they want to pay 6 quid for free range, 4 quid for UK factory or 2 quid for the American stuff..
if your skint it’s a no brainier .. if your loaded pay 15 pounds for and hand reared chicken that has been fed caviar
Or: chlorinated chicken will be sold at the current price of a UK factory, the UK factory price will increase to the current price of a free range, etc...no saving and less healthy food.

Or: a lot of people falling for the cheaper American option, UK factories and farmers forced to lower prices cutting costs God knows where, Americans lowering their price even more, UK producers forced out of business, chlorinated chicken becomes the only choice for lower/middle classes and its price starts to rise.

Or: impossible to compete with the US, UK chickens become chlorinated too.
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Old 23rd Jan 2020, 05:49
  #4337 (permalink)  
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Oh dear, poor Boris.......prone, it seems, to premature ejaculation .....

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-51214761

This paragraph however, should be more than a cause for concern. Presumably this relates to the mantra "taking back control ".......and duly offers a prescient warning as to how this Gov't intends to impose as near to totalitarian a regime as it thinks it can get away with on the electorate.....

"MPs overwhelmingly rejected all the changes made to the bill in the House of Lords earlier this week - on citizens' rights, the power of UK courts to diverge from EU law, the independence of the judiciary after Brexit and the consent of the UK's devolved administrations"
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Old 23rd Jan 2020, 08:15
  #4338 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Krystal n chips View Post
Oh dear, poor Boris.......prone, it seems, to premature ejaculation .....

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-51214761

This paragraph however, should be more than a cause for concern. Presumably this relates to the mantra "taking back control ".......and duly offers a prescient warning as to how this Gov't intends to impose as near to totalitarian a regime as it thinks it can get away with on the electorate.....

"MPs overwhelmingly rejected all the changes made to the bill in the House of Lords earlier this week - on citizens' rights, the power of UK courts to diverge from EU law, the independence of the judiciary after Brexit and the consent of the UK's devolved administrations"
I don't understand why anyone would have expected anything else when the UK upper chamber is unelected, and therefore by convention cannot force through any changes to legislation from the lower house. The lower house of course could have accepted the amendments handed down from The Lords, but given their current majority there is absolutely no reason why they should take any advice from them. It makes you wonder why we retain the House of lords at all. It is absolutely ripe for major (democratic) reform, but will it happen? Of course not.
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Old 23rd Jan 2020, 08:30
  #4339 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by SARF View Post
Put a label on it.. contains chlorinated chicken. Made in the USA. Let the public decide if they want to pay 6 quid for free range, 4 quid for UK factory or 2 quid for the American stuff..
if your skint its a no brainier .. if your loaded pay 15 pounds for and hand reared chicken that has been fed caviar
Except that much food is consumed without having been labelled.
Schools, hospitals, fast food outlets all buy the cheapest possible supplies. In the case of chicken this will be imports from the US, and the consumer will have no choice or knowledge of its origin.
These are major markets for UK farmers, who will either go out of business or will have to use the same processes to compete.
So much for your 'no brainer'.
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Old 23rd Jan 2020, 14:08
  #4340 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by LowNSlow View Post
Why do people bang on about differing standards between the UK, EU, USA etc as for the decades preceding the formation of the EU and subsequent to it the respective standards bodies, eg BSI, DIN, AFNOR, ANSI etc have agreed on which standards have equivalence within other countries and thus allowed imports of products which meet the internal standards required by the destination country.

Nothing to do with trade deals, purely establishing technical equivalence.
This is not about standards like DIN, etc, this is about national law.

If the UK has a trade deal with the EU and a truckload ... oops a lorry-load of chicken produced in the UK arrives at an EU border, customs will know that the law in the UK stipulates no-chlorine-in-chicken, and will let it through.

If there is no trade deal, and the shipment is only accompanied by a declaration from the producer that it is produced according to EU standards, customs may or may not believe it. They may seize the whole load and have it sent off for analysis. It may help if the producer employs a trusted 3rd party (in the EU) to certify their products day in and day out are produced according to standards, with regular checks. Costly.

A trade deal is about the parties promising to have certain requirements in their respective national laws, so everyone can trust that e.g. chicken produced in that country follows certain rules.

The UK is leaving the world's largest trade union where it could truck products completely without inspections or paperwork anywhere across Europe. As things are looking now, this is going to come to an end in 11 months.
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