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BREXIT

Old 14th Dec 2019, 21:34
  #3941 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by ATNotts View Post
Because, of course, the EU needs the UK much more than the UK needs the EU....simples!!
Ah yes - that had slipped my mind for a moment.
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Old 14th Dec 2019, 21:57
  #3942 (permalink)  

Controversial, moi?
 
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The EU lives in the real world.
I can hardly type for laughing......what a gem.
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Old 14th Dec 2019, 22:28
  #3943 (permalink)  
 
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One wonders whether Orac actually reads the contents of these selected snippets - as, for example -Ursula von der Leyen, the European commission’s president, said that negotiating a future relationship in such a short timeframe would be very challenging. Speaking on Friday, at the end of a leaders’ summit in Brussels, she said the negotiations would instead have to prioritise key EU issues, such as the trade in goods and fisheries, and leave others for after 2020. Such a “sequencing” could leave arrangements for the UK’s financial services sector and the landing rights of British air carriers, among other issues, out of an initial deal.....
So, the Buffoon is still insistent that we will leave on time, with or without a deal. I'm sure that his influencial, well-heeled 'friends' in the City and BIG business will be falling over themselves to support his staunch, unbending determination to ensure 'No Surrender' to "our Friends and Neighbours" (still strikes me as odd!) on the Continent. So, onwards and downwards - we'll show those Johnny Foreigners that we can 'cut off noses to spite faces' as well as anyone else!
Oh! - I forgot - ORAC's wisdom sees this as a desperate attempt by the EU to keep us in. Can he/she not have faith in our Leader's promises to lie in front of bulldozers (otherwise good at lying), die in a ditch (lots still available) and similar pronouncements. Such lack of faith, already!
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Old 15th Dec 2019, 06:03
  #3944 (permalink)  
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
 
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CJ,

I see it as an attempt to repeat what the process they set up in the current phase - and one whic( the UK will not agree to a second time, and which the other capitals understand. The U.K. won’t accept scheduling to the EUbadvantage, certainly nit to agree to those proposed. The only result will be to force Boris into a no-deal exit.

IMy comments were on the basis of the forecast that the EU will ask for an extension - and my belief that one will be agreed, but only on much more agreeable terms. As I said previously I think this will end up with many mini-deals, with of them based on those already written already to prepare for no-deal covering aviation etc.

We will be out of the EU, but they will want us in a deal which keeps us in the Single Market and tied to as many of the present rules and regulations as possible + a Norway++. The haggling will be over how many of 5he rules and an arbitration process outside the EUCJ. Which is why I believe membership of the EEA will be involved.
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Old 15th Dec 2019, 09:09
  #3945 (permalink)  
 
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Having persuaded their sophisticated Wetherspoons dwelling electorate to give them such a solid mandate
What are the odds on it being Sir Tim Martin in the New Years Honours List in a couple of weeks?? Possibly also Lord Bamford of Rocester - even Lord Dyson of Kuala Lumpur!!!
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Old 15th Dec 2019, 09:11
  #3946 (permalink)  
 
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... keeps us in the Single Market ...
You want a good trade deal. There's none better. And it stuffs up any significant rolling over to Trump.
What's not to like?
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Old 15th Dec 2019, 09:13
  #3947 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by ORAC View Post
CJ,

I see it as an attempt to repeat what the process they set up in the current phase - and one whic( the UK will not agree to a second time, and which the other capitals understand. The U.K. won’t accept scheduling to the EUbadvantage, certainly nit to agree to those proposed. The only result will be to force Boris into a no-deal exit.

IMy comments were on the basis of the forecast that the EU will ask for an extension - and my belief that one will be agreed, but only on much more agreeable terms. As I said previously I think this will end up with many mini-deals, with of them based on those already written already to prepare for no-deal covering aviation etc.

We will be out of the EU, but they will want us in a deal which keeps us in the Single Market and tied to as many of the present rules and regulations as possible + a Norway++. The haggling will be over how many of 5he rules and an arbitration process outside the EUCJ. Which is why I believe membership of the EEA will be involved.
I believe that Johnson really wants something along the lines of the EEA, but probably not the EEA itself as this would be effectively in the EU, paying subs, but with no say whatsoever in decision making. Can you also imagine the wrath he would incur were the UK not to "take back control" of our fishing waters?

The better deal for the UK, and probably also for the EU is remaining in the Customs Union (or as Labour said "a" customs union) with some sort of say on trade and tariff policy. Were that possible we'd at least have some kind of say.
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Old 15th Dec 2019, 11:36
  #3948 (permalink)  
 
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My Spanish friends say that Gibraltar might be mentioned in the negotiations.
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Old 15th Dec 2019, 12:07
  #3949 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by Sallyann1234 View Post
My Spanish friends say that Gibraltar might be mentioned in the negotiations.
In which case they must think Corbyn won.
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Old 15th Dec 2019, 12:45
  #3950 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by B Fraser View Post
In which case they must think Corbyn won.
Lasr referendum I think 7 people voted for union wth Spain; that was late '70s and they haven't bothered since.
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Old 15th Dec 2019, 12:50
  #3951 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by ORAC View Post
Interesting - suddenly the EU seems to want to keep the UK in and talking even after Brexit......

https://www.theguardian.com/politics...-boris-johnsonEU looks at extending Brexit transition period beyond 2020
Only so that our country continues paying into EU coffers; as I've always said, they only want us for our money.
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Old 15th Dec 2019, 12:53
  #3952 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by M.Mouse View Post
I can hardly type for laughing......what a gem.
Laugh while you can, my friend. It won't be long before reality bites. Of course Johnson has such a tenuous connection to reality it may never effect him really.
It's everyone else who'll pay the price.
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Old 15th Dec 2019, 12:54
  #3953 (permalink)  
 
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Speaking on Friday, at the end of a leaders’ summit in Brussels, she said the negotiations would instead have to prioritise key EU issues
The EU is still in denial. They assumed remain would win the referendum. They assumed that adopting a hard line approach in negotiation would change the mind of the UK. They took Teresa May's (a remain supporter) rolling over as confirmation.

There will now be a serious negotiation led by the people who kept repeating that her approach would be a disaster, and we will see what happens; their saying the UK 'must' bend over and accept their demands is going to be unfortunately counter-productive. Which bit of the word 'negotiation' (a 2 party process) have they not grasped yet?
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Old 15th Dec 2019, 14:13
  #3954 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Fitter2 View Post
The EU is still in denial. They assumed remain would win the referendum. They assumed that adopting a hard line approach in negotiation would change the mind of the UK. They took Teresa May's (a remain supporter) rolling over as confirmation.

There will now be a serious negotiation led by the people who kept repeating that her approach would be a disaster, and we will see what happens; their saying the UK 'must' bend over and accept their demands is going to be unfortunately counter-productive. Which bit of the word 'negotiation' (a 2 party process) have they not grasped yet?
The Germans made it clear a million times, but I suspect The Sun didn't report report it...a crash out would be a disaster, but the integrity of the single market is more important.

The line you see as "hard" is to preserve the single market. Bear in mind such line could have been and still could be in much harder, if you can't see it I suspect you still don't understand which kind of consequenceses the UK would face in case of total failure of the negotiating table.

About the concept of "negotiation": a multiple party process where results are a function of risks and negotiating power. In this case you have an island negotiating with its closest continent, 27 countries in a single union. Who do you think has more negotiating power and who is facing higer risks?
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Old 15th Dec 2019, 15:12
  #3955 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by bulldog89 View Post
Who do you think has more negotiating power and who is facing higer risks?
That rather depends on a number of things.
  • Who has the balance of trade
  • Who has the real ability to undercut the other party through reductions in tariffs
  • Who can deregulate more quickly, driving the movement in trade in the finance, insurance and banking sectors.
  • Who can be agile when negotiating deals with new partners such as APAC, MEA and LATAM.
It's going to be quite a year.
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Old 15th Dec 2019, 17:19
  #3956 (permalink)  
 
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I can certainly agree with that last line. Better get some popcorn in for the trade deals.
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Old 15th Dec 2019, 21:35
  #3957 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Fitter2 View Post
The EU is still in denial. They assumed remain would win the referendum. They assumed that adopting a hard line approach in negotiation would change the mind of the UK.
Fitter, whoever told you that was pulling your leg.
The EU negotiated two withdrawal agreements and kept bending over backwards to accomodate your irresolute leaders, and granting as many delays as you begged.
So no hard line approach whatsoever, just respecting the EU's red lines that have been clear for everyone to read for years now. Pity your leaders and the little joker that took you for a ride were incapable of telling you so when it was time.

The 27 just announced they have set their negotiating lines for their chief negotiator Barnier. They are now waiting for the UK to come forth with its requests and offers.
Because you'll have to make offers, it's a negotiation, remember.
And BTW, what is it that the UK is asking for when - and if - they come for negotiations?

I suggest your delve a little deeper into the subject before posting again. Of course not in the UK's press, better read EU press.
But rest assured there's no denial in the EU, everybody is waiting for your propositions with bated breath. You better get ready and know what you want to ask for !
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Old 15th Dec 2019, 21:47
  #3958 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by chevvron View Post
Only so that our country continues paying into EU coffers; as I've always said, they only want us for our money.
What else would you have to offer to the Union ?
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Old 15th Dec 2019, 22:27
  #3959 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by B Fraser View Post
That rather depends on a number of things.
  • Who has the balance of trade
  • Who has the real ability to undercut the other party through reductions in tariffs
  • Who can deregulate more quickly, driving the movement in trade in the finance, insurance and banking sectors.
  • Who can be agile when negotiating deals with new partners such as APAC, MEA and LATAM.
It's going to be quite a year.
Re: balance of trade:
I guess you're indicating that EU countries have a trade surplus with the UK ? If so, that surplus is distributed between 27 countries, which will be hurt minimally each, much less than the UK.

Re: Who has the real ability to undercut the other party through reductions in tariffs.
Dunno, who'd be reducing tariffs. Tariffs are on imports, are you saying the UK will undercut someone by having low tariffs on imports ? Or you'd be negotiating a lower tariff deal with e.g. Canada than the EU has ? Remember however that trade deals work both ways.

Re: Who can deregulate more quickly, driving the movement in trade in the finance, insurance and banking sectors.
The UK I guess would be deregulating these enormously respected sectors :-) I didn't know these sectors were hampered by EU regulations. Said EU regulations might be sensible, attracting customer trust, and ensuring stability. What are workers that aren't in these sectors going to live off ?

Re: Who can be agile when negotiating deals with new partners such as APAC, MEA and LATAM.
The UK can. But it's going to take years to make these deals. But won't help too much on goods exports, these markets are all far away.

Re: It's going to be quite a year
Yes! And during that year, the rest of the world won't know where the UK is going to land. I myself am predicting a hard Brexit at the end of the year.
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Old 15th Dec 2019, 22:46
  #3960 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by chevvron View Post
Only so that our country continues paying into EU coffers; as I've always said, they only want us for our money.
Have you, before complaining about the contribution, considered the net advantages that the UK has had through it's EU membership ?

If you don't want to stay, then leave for God's sake, we're all sick of this. The remaining 27 EU countries have done nothing to prevent you from leaving, immediately for that sake. No, you can't complain about your former parliament, it was elected by the people.
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