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BREXIT

Old 2nd Apr 2019, 19:14
  #361 (permalink)  
 
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SNP's Ian Blackford got quite emotional in the Commons last night, stating the follwong:

“ Fundamentally for us that represent seats in Scotland, we voted to remain in the EU. A vast majority of Scottish MPs voted to revoke Article 50, a vast majority of Scottish MPs voted for a People’s Vote, a vast majority of MPs voted to stay in the single market and customs union. It is crystal clear to us from Scotland that our votes in this House are disrespected. It’s becoming increasingly clear to the people of Scotland that if we want to secure future as a European nation that we’re going to have to take our own responsibilities. Sovereignty rests with the people of Scotland, not with this House, and the day is coming when we will determine our future and it will be as an independent country.”

Looks like the Union is facing some challenges as far as Northern Ireland and Scotland remaining in it are concerned...
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Old 2nd Apr 2019, 19:25
  #362 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by virginblue View Post

Looks like the Union is facing some challenges as far as Northern Ireland and Scotland remaining in it are concerned...
I think that’s an understatement, certainly in the case of Scotland..I wonder when the SNP slogan will start using the slogan of “take back control”......they wouldn’t dare..would they?

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Old 2nd Apr 2019, 19:33
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Originally Posted by virginblue View Post
Looks like the Union is facing some challenges as far as Northern Ireland and Scotland remaining in it are concerned...
That has always been clear since the Brexit referendum.

It won't be easy for the Scots, for all the same reasons that were clear at the last Inderef. But one day they will do it.

Perhaps the technology will be available then for one of those soft borders?

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Old 2nd Apr 2019, 20:13
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Originally Posted by MadamBreakneck View Post
Thanks for that explanation........
From both sides, there seems to have been total ignorance of that other negotiator's friend, BATNA (Best Alternative To Negotiated Agreement); or perhaps both sides have had 'prevarication, procrastination, and eventual withdrawal of Article 50' as their BATNA whilst continually refusing to admit it.
Meanwhile, sadly I still have no further understanding of what concessions the EU27 side have made from their opening baseliine in order to achieve a compromise. Maybe I never shall have.

MB
Cheers MB. Yes as he says, the EU is a difficult negotiating partner. I rather agree with you regarding BATNA.
There was one fleeting reference in section 10 which alluded to a change of position by the EU:
“But that very commitment to an all UK backstop solution, which, for the PM felt like a breakthrough to a deal which the EU had previously said it could not do as part of the Article 50 process, did not enhance her prospects of getting the Withdrawal Agreement through the House.”

Other than that we may have to wait for the memoirs.
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Old 2nd Apr 2019, 21:38
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Originally Posted by virginblue View Post
Apparently the DUP prefers a hard border between NI and the RoI over a customs border at Holyhead. So matter closed.

Why exactly would the EU - and for that matter, the RoI - prefer a hard Brexit over a customs border using technological means if the latter was workable?
During the troubles 21,000 soldiers, 10,000 RUC and Thousands of reservist were unable to keep control of the border. There are 204 "official" border crossings including many where in a 1 mile stretch you are in and out a number of times. This is not counting where border crosses a field or through a house. It is 310 miles long.

The "technological" solution has zero chance of lasting because put cameras up they will be gone before installation crew are back at their HQ. Of course you could use police and military to install them but how many people do you want to guard each one.

DUP want a mega guarded border if they could have their way, including sending as many non Unionists south as soon as possible.

UK Brexit is being decided by 10 MPs of a party whose policies are anathema to overwhelming majority of UK residents of either polical persuasion. Tail is yet again wagging the London dog which suits the Tory hard right wing.

DUP will find other Unionists are not so agreeable over time which is why a border poll is getting more likely, DUP will end up with what they don't want.
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Old 2nd Apr 2019, 21:41
  #366 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by wiggy View Post


I think that’s an understatement, certainly in the case of Scotland..I wonder when the SNP slogan will start using the slogan of “take back control”......they wouldn’t dare..would they?

Pretty much guaranteed that it will happen.

Tory Government go down as the ones who set in motion the Breakup of the UK & NI, all because the weakest Prime Minister in history caved in to the Tory right.
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Old 2nd Apr 2019, 21:53
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Originally Posted by racedo View Post
Pretty much guaranteed that it will happen.

Tory Government go down as the ones who set in motion the Breakup of the UK & NI, all because David Cameron caved in to the Tory right.
Corrected that for you.


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Old 2nd Apr 2019, 21:54
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Originally Posted by KelvinD View Post
The UK government could, in theory, say "Yeah. We will not impose border restrictions in Ireland. By the way, all goods entering the UK from Ireland will have to be cleared in Holyhead." There's plenty of space on Anglesey to build and operate a customs facility. There is even a sort of precedent for this. I remember about 30 or 40 years ago, all Japanese imports of VCR and other electronic consumer goods had to be landed in France and driven to a town nearer the centre of France (can't remember the name now) for customs clearance.
UK Exports $25 billion to Republic of Ireland and Imports $18 billion. So that is $7 billion trade surplus gone. Dublin will reciprocate and ensure everything goes through Dublin port and a single area

So what does UK sell to Ireland than cannot be sourced elsewhere ?

In 1930's in an economic war between London and Dublin, the Irish Govt and economy took a lot of pain but had population support, they would do it again but this time they have EU behind them. Anybody who thinks Irish population wouldn't support their Govt really needs to travel across and speak to Irish people.
.
Already shipping lines have been set up that bring goods direct from Dublin to Rotterdam and France avoiding UK completely. They have done more Brexit planning than London it appears.
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Old 2nd Apr 2019, 22:02
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Not sure anyone ' caved in'. People faced with pursuing a course of action they don't agree with in an atmosphere of political opportunism. To spend 2 years in negotiation on the nations behalf in secret and then to claim it's my deal or no deal is reprehensible and just stupid. We have to leave to be able to negotiate. So let's just leave. It will end with a customs union in one form or another. However can we get rid of the head girl: that would cheer me up.
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Old 2nd Apr 2019, 22:47
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Originally Posted by Mr Optimistic View Post
Not sure anyone ' caved in'. People faced with pursuing a course of action they don't agree with in an atmosphere of political opportunism. To spend 2 years in negotiation on the nations behalf in secret and then to claim it's my deal or no deal is reprehensible and just stupid. We have to leave to be able to negotiate. So let's just leave. It will end with a customs union in one form or another. However can we get rid of the head girl: that would cheer me up.
I have little time for TM but she has shown more backbone than any other Tory MP. History will judge her fairly.
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Old 3rd Apr 2019, 03:10
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They have done more Brexit planning than London it appears.
Apparently all the UK planning for the Channel ports in the event of a 'no deal' Brexit has not involved any liaison with the French ports across the water ...
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Old 3rd Apr 2019, 06:03
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Originally Posted by reynoldsno1 View Post
Apparently all..
When you say "apparently" what you mean is "I'm going to make some stuff up and see if anyone calls me out on it"

This is why remain lost an unlosable referendum.

Why not stop doing it now?
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Old 3rd Apr 2019, 07:11
  #373 (permalink)  
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A bit of culture for JB....never let it be said us Guardian readers is philisitines .....unfortunately, the depiction happens to be rather more factual than surreal.

https://www.theguardian.com/artandde...ain-edge-abyss

By way of balance......Steve Bell.

https://www.theguardian.com/commenti...cement-cartoon
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Old 3rd Apr 2019, 07:52
  #374 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by racedo View Post
I have little time for TM but she has shown more backbone than any other Tory MP. History will judge her fairly.
Are you sure about that? she has certainly done so to Tusk and co.

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Old 3rd Apr 2019, 07:56
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Originally Posted by Sallyann1234 View Post
Corrected that for you.
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Old 3rd Apr 2019, 09:41
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Talk about negotiation in situations like this is ludicrous, who would we send instead of the PM-Res Mogg-,laughed at as soon as he shows his face and has no credibility-dodgy funds manager old Etonian . Boris, well we all saw how great at negotiating when Foreign Sec, the kind of f=person who would come out of DFS with two full price sofas .
Negotiation at this level is about the issues and the strength behind the positions , Trump and N Korea, all noise no action. . US vs the EU , one against 27 no real chance of gettign your own way. Leaving means a big black hole for us and a decent sized one for the Eu but it isnt the Eu that matters its the other 27 Countries and the economic impact on each of them is not that great whereas its 100% for us or 200% if Boris is doing the negotiating. So we are in extra time with a government and Parliament who do not have a clue what to do , open talk of a general election only 2.5 years after the last one but we cannot have a referendum because we had one THREE years ago , presumably because too many MPs have money at stake or took Vlads gold and havent delivered the goods. Isnt taking money from a foreign power who is potential enemy treason?
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Old 3rd Apr 2019, 10:00
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Originally Posted by oldairphot View Post
Are you sure about that? she has certainly done so to Tusk and co.
She picked up a bag of shit while the Old Etonians sat on the sidelines sniping.
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Old 3rd Apr 2019, 10:22
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Originally Posted by racedo View Post
She picked up a bag of shit while the Old Etonians sat on the sidelines sniping.
I think there are a fair few who are of the opinion that the Old Etonians were smart enough to realise it was a bag they didn’t want to pick up....


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Old 3rd Apr 2019, 11:20
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It is helpful to have in mind what the EU-27 has been experiencing, sitting on the continental sofa and eating popcorn:

- the UK comes up with a ill-motivated referendum with the guy responsible for it apparenty unable to imagine the result "leave"
- the red bus-inspired majority with the narrowest of union-wide majorities votes for leave, although the majority in parts of the union disagree.
- the UK, after wasting some precious time, finally starts thinking about the leave conditions ,
- the UK triggers Art. 50 without a realistic idea about the time needed and the consequences involved.
- the UK negotiating style in the ensuing negotiations is best characterized by the brexit minister showing up for meetings with his bare hands and a featherbrained smile, whereas the EU negotiators are equipped with mountains of files and a serous look on their face.
- the EU, after much headscratching about delusional demands and expectations on the UK's side, agrees to a deal that comprises stuff suggested by the UK, e.g. the infamous backstop
- the prime ministers potters back home with the deal in her handbag only to have it struck down with the help of her own party for elements of the deal that were suggested by the UK
- the parliament, not wanting the government's deal, could be reasonably expected to come up with something better, but fails over and over again to agree on any solution, be it a no brexit, soft brexit, hard brexit or no deal brexit.

Realistically, one has to applaud to EU for its apparently everlasting patience given the above scenario.
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Old 3rd Apr 2019, 11:52
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All absolutely true, except perhaps for
Realistically, one has to applaud to EU for its apparently everlasting patience given the above scenario.
I think their patience was exhausted long ago.
Now they are just stood back in stupefied amazement that a country could shoot itself in the feet so many times and yet keep its finger on the trigger.
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