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BREXIT

Old 14th Sep 2019, 07:07
  #2201 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by B Fraser View Post
Here's an answer from the chap who until recently, ran the port of Dover.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YggHsc0LvyI
Problem is he's (supposedly) an expert, I thought "we'd" had enough of those.


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Old 14th Sep 2019, 08:14
  #2202 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by wiggy View Post
Problem is he's (supposedly) an expert, I thought "we'd" had enough of those.
He’s also an anonymous caller who only gave his first name and stated he didn’t work at the port anymore.

So unverified and hardly an authority. I’d rather stick to the currently employed experts who are willing to put their name to what they are stating.
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Old 14th Sep 2019, 08:17
  #2203 (permalink)  
 
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So unverified and hardly an authority. I’d rather stick to the currently employed experts who are willing to put their name to what they are stating.
As in the Members of the House of Commons?
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Old 14th Sep 2019, 08:25
  #2204 (permalink)  
 
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Not having followed UK politics that closely I just came to wonder one day if any british prime minister ever tried to take the other approach to the EU. Kick Germany or France or Italy to the side and take hold of the beast. As far as I can remember no but not really certain?
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Old 14th Sep 2019, 09:08
  #2205 (permalink)  
 
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I didn't write this, and I haven't fact checked all the claims.
If it's been posted before then I've missed it. Apologies.

Right, let's tackle this WTO thing.


1/ If we end up solely on WTO rules, then we need a hard border in Ireland. That risks peace, stability, and the Union. Plus we don't have any time to build the infrastructure required. Like, nowhere NEAR enough time. And there aren't any "alternative arrangements", I promise. They don't exist. There isn't a single border in the world that has any. And that means a hard border.


2/ If we rely on WTO rules for trade, then we need to apply tariffs to imports. And expect that other countries will apply tariffs to our exports. That makes things more expensive for us to buy, and makes our businesses less able to compete. Not really sure how this is a win.


3/ If we decide we're not going to apply tariffs to imports at all, then we lose all leverage for negotiating future trade deals. What on earth would we offer them?? We've already given them free access to our market.


4/ If we decide we're not going to apply tariffs to imports at all, then we destroy our own producers - why would you carry on trying to run a farm produce business when the market is flooded with much cheaper products from abroad?


5/ If we decide to only reduce tariffs on products from the EU, then the Most Favoured Nation clause (WTO rules) kicks in - this says that you can't offer more favourable terms to one bloc, and not everyone else. So - no tariffs from the EU, means no tariffs from anyone. See points 3 and 4.


6/ If you were looking forward to getting your bendy bananas back, then tough shit; this rule didn't come from the EU (no matter what Boris told you), it came from the WTO - specifically, the Codex Alimentarius. So, no change there. Except now bananas are extortionately expensive, because, well, tariffs.


7/ If you're relying on the idea that there's an obscure WTO rule that says we can just carry on trading with the EU on the same terms we have now for 10 years, then tough shit again - this isn't correct. The "rule" is Article XXIV of the GATT, and is specifically an allowance for deviating from the MFN (see 5) because you and another bloc are working towards implementing your bilateral trade deal. It requires an end point - a fully thrashed out trade agreement. It is specifically NOT a clause that comes into play when you decide to drop out of a trading arrangement.


8/ If one of the benefits of "going WTO" is that we can make our own rules, then I can understand that. We could decide, unilaterally, that it's too expensive for us to produce electronics with an earthing wire, so we're not going to insist on that anymore. Cool. But then we can't sell our products to our closest trading neighbours. We want to sell stuff to the EU, we need to follow their rules. Except now we don't get a say in what they are.


9/ Having a "world trade deal" sounds quite attractive - quite romantic. The idea of Britain going out on her own, bravely forging links with faraway lands - it's quite appealing. Except trade doesn't work like that. There's a gravity towards your closest neighbours - proximity is important. I'm more likely to sell something to France than I am to Australia - I can get it there quicker, for example, and for a much lower cost. There is no nation on earth - none - that have prioritised trading with distant countries instead of those geographically closest. We're about to be the first - which will involve a pretty brutal lesson in the realities of logistics.


10/ If we go WTO, then we need to check goods coming into our internal market - including those from the EU. We don't have the infrastructure to do this. Nor do we have the staff. Nor the time. Plus - and this is deeply ironic - once we leave the EU, the pool of people from which we can recruit to do this essential work becomes much, much smaller. Do we have enough vets to perform the necessary checks on livestock coming into the country, for example? No. Where do we normally recruit them from? The EU. Ah, shit.


11/ A No Deal exit was never on the cards during the campaign. It is simply all that is left, once logic and reality strip away all the lies that we were told about Brexit. No, German car manufacturers haven't been knocking on Merkel's door demanding a trade deal with the UK. No, the EU doesn't need us more than we need them. No, we don't hold all the cards. None of that was true. It was never going to be true. But rather than facing up to reality, the rhetoric has just become more and more extreme. If you're dealt a bad hand in a game of poker - if the river turns against you - you don't HAVE to go all in. There are other options. You don't need to claim that was what you intended to do all along.


All of this - all of the above. That's what Donald Tusk was talking about. People who either ignored the above, or didn't even bother to find out about it - but sold us Brexit anyway. The people who - even now - print banners that say "LET'S GO WTO!" as if it's the easiest thing in the world, and without consequence.


Fortyeight days to go.


Just forty eight!
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Old 14th Sep 2019, 09:44
  #2206 (permalink)  
 
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After that lecture I don't understand why every country in the World apart from those in the EU has not collapsed.
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Old 14th Sep 2019, 09:46
  #2207 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Aihkio View Post
Not having followed UK politics that closely I just came to wonder one day if any british prime minister ever tried to take the other approach to the EU. Kick Germany or France or Italy to the side and take hold of the beast. As far as I can remember no but not really certain?
Love her or hate her, at least Thatcher had a good go at kicking them into line, and with a fair degree of success.
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Old 14th Sep 2019, 09:53
  #2208 (permalink)  
 
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That's because she negotiated and remained in. This time the UK announced to finally leave from the beginning and was surprised that no room for negotiations was left.
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Old 14th Sep 2019, 09:55
  #2209 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Fareastdriver View Post
After that lecture I don't understand why every country in the World apart from those in the EU has not collapsed.
Try this; Who actually trades solely under WTO rules? - James Hardy - Medium
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Old 14th Sep 2019, 10:07
  #2210 (permalink)  
 
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MAURITANIAFor those of you not familiar with Mauritania, it’s GDP is $4,714million (0.2% of the UK’s), 50% of its exports consist of Iron Ore, and between 1% and 17% of the population still live in slavery.

It appears that this is the country that Leave.UK wish to emulate. I am afraid that this is not a vision for Britain’s future that I can share.
WOW! I had a feeling that there wouldn't be many, but just one! Still, blue passports and bent bananas eh? Win Win!
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Old 14th Sep 2019, 10:19
  #2211 (permalink)  
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You don’t have to have tariffs, they are after all a tax on your citizens. There are, as the EU employs, alternatives, for example phytosanitary measures.

Preferential tariff agreements can be signed. Quite why the EU would wish to ensure high tariffs be charged on goods to a market where they currently enjoy a trade surplus of nearly £90B and see the trade go elsewhere, I am not sure.

https://www.instituteforgovernment.o...ariff-barriers


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Old 14th Sep 2019, 10:28
  #2212 (permalink)  
 
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This is a reminder what Nigel Farage said on tge morning of 9th September. Reposted for those who missed it.

Even he, at this late hour, wants a Deal; but he wants to leave first/negotiate later. From a position of utter weakness. The man and his followers are mad, quite mad!

Clean Break Brexit – No Deal and Nigel Farage

Nigel now wants a deal with the EU! outlined below in his own words.

A WTO Rules Base Line – GAT and NF is advocating a freeze on the current basis to keep things going – on Good Morning Britain 0740 9 September 2019 he talks about 'project fear' and scare mongering then says this:

‘the WTO sets a base line how businesses continue, but if we were deadly serious, if Brussels really thought we were leaving, in 50 days time, quite possibly, we could negotiate; I don’t want to get too technical, we could negotiate under GAT, a freeze, whereby, we carried on everything as it was with Europe for the next 2 years. We’d have left the European Union, so there are plenty of ways of sorting this out.’

Unfortunately the devil is in the detail as described above. Nigel Farage does not have a meaningful way of leaving the EU, but still wants to be OUT!

But then the best bit:

‘I tell you what people do want: they want this over, they want it done, they want us to get on with the rest of our lives and I think. Who wants this to dominate our politics, our country, for the next five years, ten years?’

He just advocated a further 2 years discussion under EU terms while trying to get out of the EU!

I was very careful to transcribe EXACTLY what he said because I could not believe what i was hearing.
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Old 14th Sep 2019, 10:40
  #2213 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by ORAC View Post
You don’t have to have tariffs, they are after all a tax on your citizens. There are, as the EU employs, alternatives, for example phytosanitary measures.

Preferential tariff agreements can be signed. Quite why the EU would wish to ensure high tariffs be charged on goods to a market where they currently enjoy a trade surplus of nearly £90B and see the trade go elsewhere, I am not sure.
That is the whole point of the single market!

Do we have to go back to 'Leaving the EU 101' so late in the game.

Shame on David Cameron for NOT negotiation with the EU with any backbone. Did he learn nothing while working for Margaret Thatcher.

Shame on David Cameron for failing to explain how the EU works.

Shame on David Cameron for calling an undefined referendum.

Shame on David Cameron for committing to Article 50 before the ground work was done.

Shame on David Cameron for using the electorate to resolve the internal squabbling of the Tory Party

Shame on David Cameron for walking away leaving others to sort out his mess!

​​​​​​
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Old 14th Sep 2019, 10:58
  #2214 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by TURIN View Post
I didn't write this, and I haven't fact checked all the claims.
If it's been posted before then I've missed it. Apologies.

Right, let's tackle this WTO thing.

Points 1) thru 13)

..................................
All of this - all of the above. That's what Donald Tusk was talking about. People who either ignored the above, or didn't even bother to find out about it - but sold us Brexit anyway. The people who - even now - print banners that say "LET'S GO WTO!" as if it's the easiest thing in the world, and without consequence.


Fortyeight days to go.


Just forty eight!
A reasoned argument. The first that I have seen.
I am unsure of its merits on balance but informative nevertheless.

Re "Just forty eight!" - yes precisely, or it was a while ago.

But that's 48 up ahead, with 1177 behind.
Me? I'd be looking to severely castigate those responsible for wasting those 1177 days.
But in the true British tradition, I'm sure most of 'em will end up with titles and a comfy seat in the sleeping chamber.
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Old 14th Sep 2019, 11:31
  #2215 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by OilCan View Post
Love her or hate her, at least Thatcher had a good go at kicking them into line, and with a fair degree of success.
For those interested :
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-11598879

Taking the lead in a Union involves a spine and a brain - collectively speaking. Not sure Britain is well equiped at the moment...
Not even sure the kingdom will remain united for long...
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Old 14th Sep 2019, 11:46
  #2216 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by TURIN View Post
All of this - all of the above. That's what Donald Tusk was talking about. People who either ignored the above, or didn't even bother to find out about it - but sold us Brexit anyway. The people who - even now - print banners that say "LET'S GO WTO!" as if it's the easiest thing in the world, and without consequence.


Fortyeight days to go.


Just forty eight!
Thank you for this excellent detailed information.
Might be an eye opener for some people here.
Of course some will accuse the EU for not having told that before...

What strikes me are the questions from some here as to "why don't we go WTO only", "How are nations outside the EU doing", "What if..", "How about..".
They appear to be 3-4 years behind. Think first, and only then discuss and vote...
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Old 14th Sep 2019, 13:01
  #2217 (permalink)  
 
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Turin, your WTO post is probably the best one I've ever read on this site. Why on earth you would want to join the likes of North Korea in the WTO pot is beyond me.
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Old 14th Sep 2019, 14:29
  #2218 (permalink)  
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https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2019/0...sal-to-the-eu/

Why the UK hasn’t presented any specific, backstop proposal to the EU

The EU side regularly points out that the UK government hasn’t presented any detailed proposals on what it wants to replace the backstop with. At a Cabinet committee meeting this week, the Brexit Secretary Steve Barclay set about explaining to ministerial colleagues why this was. As I report in The Sun this morning, He told the Committee that the EU had set three tests for any new proposal. First, it must avoid any infrastructure on the border that would be incompatible with the Good Friday Agreement. Second, it must protect the integrity of the EU’s single market. Third, it mustn’t involve any checks on the island of Ireland.

Barclay said that the UK could meet the first two of these tests, but not the third. He said that there was no point in presenting any detailed proposals until the EU shifted on the question of checks. One government source explains that if the UK did the ‘EU would nuke the proposals and we would be in chaos’. So, the challenge for Boris Johnson is to get the EU to move on this third point. His Monday meeting with Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker gives Boris Johnson a chance to lobby him on this very issue.

With his term as Commission President due to end on October 31, Juncker will be keen to resolve Brexit before he goes. I also understand that several EU governments, including France’s, are now apprehensive about the possibility of a second referendum. They believe it would be bad for the EU for the UK to stay in given how contested our membership now is.

The EU, though, will not abandon Ireland. This means that whatever proposal Boris Johnson comes up with will have to be something that Leo Varadkar is prepared to accept. The first meeting between the two men has given Downing Street some hope that they can find something that works for Dublin, them and the DUP. The DUP’s willingness to entertain Northern Ireland continuing to follow EU rules on agriculture has opened the door to further discussions.

If parliament had not tied Boris Johnson’s hands, he could have seen if the risk of no-deal would have pushed Dublin and the EU to compromise on the checks front. But he is now negotiating with a weakened hand.

For this and other reasons, the odds are still against a deal. But there is a greater chance of one than there was a week ago.


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Old 14th Sep 2019, 17:35
  #2219 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by ORAC View Post
Why the UK hasn’t presented any specific, backstop proposal to the EU
...
Barclay said that the UK could meet the first two of these tests, but not the third. He said that there was no point in presenting any detailed proposals until the EU shifted on the question of checks. One government source explains that if the UK did the ‘EU would nuke the proposals and we would be in chaos’.
...
So much for this Government having a miracle solution to avoid the Backstop and still have no deal...
And finally a good news : Britain is not yet in chaos !

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Old 14th Sep 2019, 17:54
  #2220 (permalink)  
 
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Who will win with a no deal Brexit, and how? Why are the ERG hell bent on no deal ?
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