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My hobby: reading accident threads alongside the final report

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My hobby: reading accident threads alongside the final report

Old 26th Feb 2019, 08:28
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My hobby: reading accident threads alongside the final report

I find it informative as it illustrates various behavioural factors (e.g., related to interpretation of partial info, confirmation bias, etc.) that are also present in other areas of activity, including operational work.

Interestingly, it does highlight what we all suspect: 99% of all commentary turns out to be completely wrong. It seems that those frequent posters, whose names can be recognised by any semi-regular reader, who write in accident threads (not all do) are also usually the more opinionated and/or least knowledgeable.

Another interesting point is that in many of these threads there will be an infrequent or otherwise unknown poster who will actually "nail it", e.g., by guessing the outcome of the final report or pointing in the right direction, ignoring red herrings.

One such thread is the one concerning the 2008 XL Airways crash in Perpignan, in which the one poster that came to the same conclusion as the report (crews playing test pilot in that case) was insulted and shot down by everyone else.

This, I suppose, is something to keep firmly in mind when reading these forums.
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Old 26th Feb 2019, 10:47
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An interesting analysis.

What is common is we have only what the media feed us. We also know from experience that the generalist reporter outs often ignorant on technical detail.
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Old 26th Feb 2019, 12:45
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delarue's example is interesting. As a new member here, I got spanked w/ a post-delete and a 30 day forum ban for lightly suggesting that a mid-air between a military training aircraft and a contracted sparring aircraft could have been related to the use of camera for a souvenir photo. (Where aviation "coffee-table books" make it obvious that close formation photos are a thing.)

I did get the message not to joke about pilot error on a pilot's forum.

Last edited by dogsridewith; 26th Feb 2019 at 13:41.
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Old 26th Feb 2019, 13:22
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Originally Posted by delarue View Post
Another interesting point is that in many of these threads there will be an infrequent or otherwise unknown poster who will actually "nail it", e.g., by guessing the outcome of the final report or pointing in the right direction, ignoring red herrings.
Most threads on high-profile accidents quickly attract so many posts that, according to the Law of Averages, somebody is almost bound to get it right.

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Old 26th Feb 2019, 13:44
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[/QUOTE]Another interesting point is that in many of these threads there will be an infrequent or otherwise unknown poster who will actually "nail it", e.g., by guessing the outcome of the final report or pointing in the right direction, ignoring red herrings. [QUOTE]

Interesting thread. What I like is how knowledgeable contributors share and hone their thoughts into a likely range of possible events. Quite fascinating.

To date, I'll admit, I only 'nailed' one crash. The Germanwings suicide. Got close on a few others, but there's almost always more holes in the cheese that I hadn't considered.
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Old 26th Feb 2019, 14:47
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As a career pilot I am more then just fleetingly interested in accident reports on my side of the industry. Which is now Transport Category aircraft but it used to be light GA aircraft.
The Who, the Why, the What just intrigues me.
The spousal unit likes watching Air Disasters as she works in aviation herself and well...shes married to a pilot.

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Old 26th Feb 2019, 15:11
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There are certain common factors in AAIB reports. Many of the commercial accidents have 40,000 hour Captains and all too many light aircraft come to grief being flown by pilots over the age of 60. Age, experience and complacency might have something to do with it. One thing that will result in instant censure is any suggestion that the pilot was at fault until the official report has been published. Rightly or wrongly, pilot error is still recorded as being the root cause of the majority of aviation mishaps.

When the technology fails and you are thrown back to seat of the pants flying, too many commercial pilots seem to lack the manual skills to carry out an eventless landing. I guess this is only to be expected when accountants insist on engaging automation at every possible stage of flight to save a few dollars on fuel.

The same accidents do happen over and over again in light aviation, collapsing nosewheeels, forgetting to lower the landing gear, carburettor icing, loss of control after entering IMC, controlled flight into terrain while in IMC and that old favourite, stall and spin while attempting to turn back to the airfield when the engine fails on takeoff.
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Old 26th Feb 2019, 16:28
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I'm proud of my post deletions in accident threads and even prouder when somebody else picks up on my hints and gets Kudos from his friends for developing it.
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