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Anti Vaxxers

Old 22nd Feb 2019, 10:22
  #21 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Dont Hang Up View Post
That rather implies autism is a known but acceptable risk of the MMR. It is not. The whole argument was false and based on self-interest and personal gain.
Iím sure I read, at the time, that autism tends to become apparent at around the same age that the MMR inoculations are administered. So, an erroneous connection was made between the two.
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Old 22nd Feb 2019, 10:46
  #22 (permalink)  
 
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Queue Ben Goldacre
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Old 22nd Feb 2019, 11:00
  #23 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by tescoapp View Post
Its Darwin theory in action breeding out stupidity.
Not sure Darwin ever said anything about many of the things often attributed to him as “Darwinism”. His early evolutionary theory was appropriated by social funcitionalists because it suited their world view. The Nazis also practiced an expression of these ideas. The people who avoid vaccination are not stupid, they are misguided, misinformed, and often confused. They think the default safe option is not to vaccinate. In a world that isn’t robust enough to eschew nonesense, that is hardly surprising.

How does the effect of increased risk to the non-stupid fit into your social evolutionary theory?

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Old 22nd Feb 2019, 11:07
  #24 (permalink)  
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Just playing devils advovate, has the sky actually fallen down because a couple of hippies have chosen not to vaxx their offspring?
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Old 22nd Feb 2019, 11:09
  #25 (permalink)  
 
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It just may. For the offspring in question.
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Old 22nd Feb 2019, 11:49
  #26 (permalink)  
 
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How many deaths is ex Dr Andrew Wakefield responsible for? I imagine the figure would be significant. If only the criminal law could hold him accountable.
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Old 22nd Feb 2019, 13:32
  #27 (permalink)  
 
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With the austism thing there was an Insurance mathematician stats guy that does the risk calcs and insurance loadings went on a statistics hunt to do with the increase in Autism. I have tried to find a link to it but haven't managed

In summary he started with the autism figures in the US by state and year dating back to just after the war and then tried to find a link between them and other social changes and if he found one then tried to find a link between that and other geographical variations.

being a n insurance dude he had access to much more and well formatted data to work with..

The first run through with just the years came up with something like 10-12 variables which the autism rates matched. Vaccination wasn't one of them.

He then ran the geographical spread using those 10-12 variables and came up with 1.

He then crossed back and used weather historys to see if it backed up the variations he was seeing

That variable was TV ownership. The geographical variation mean that those with mild summers when the kids were out side more had less of it.

The weather history also tracked the variation.

He then ran a child number and family size. turned out that the second or more child was more likely that the first to have it and suggested that this was because that child was exposed to more TV younger with the older one watching it.

Being a none stats person his analysis seemed way more convincing than the anti vaxx stuff.

The suggestion was that 50/60 hz exposure of a bright screen while the brain is developing over cooks it and can cause it to form short circuits due to over stimulation. Until the TV came about humans didn't have any reason to develop protections against this through evolution.

So my kid got vaccinated and got nil telly until he was 3 and now only gets 30 mins per day maximum on the lowest brightness setting and he has to be on the couch 5 meters away from it.

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Old 22nd Feb 2019, 16:46
  #28 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by tescoapp View Post
With the austism thing there was an Insurance mathematician stats guy that does the risk calcs and insurance loadings went on a statistics hunt to do with the increase in Autism. I have tried to find a link to it but haven't managed

In summary he started with the autism figures in the US by state and year dating back to just after the war and then tried to find a link between them and other social changes and if he found one then tried to find a link between that and other geographical variations.

being a n insurance dude he had access to much more and well formatted data to work with..

The first run through with just the years came up with something like 10-12 variables which the autism rates matched. Vaccination wasn't one of them.

He then ran the geographical spread using those 10-12 variables and came up with 1.

He then crossed back and used weather historys to see if it backed up the variations he was seeing

That variable was TV ownership. The geographical variation mean that those with mild summers when the kids were out side more had less of it.

The weather history also tracked the variation.

He then ran a child number and family size. turned out that the second or more child was more likely that the first to have it and suggested that this was because that child was exposed to more TV younger with the older one watching it.

Being a none stats person his analysis seemed way more convincing than the anti vaxx stuff.

The suggestion was that 50/60 hz exposure of a bright screen while the brain is developing over cooks it and can cause it to form short circuits due to over stimulation. Until the TV came about humans didn't have any reason to develop protections against this through evolution.

So my kid got vaccinated and got nil telly until he was 3 and now only gets 30 mins per day maximum on the lowest brightness setting and he has to be on the couch 5 meters away from it.
Interesting stuff... did he take into account the increase in diagnosis rate for autism though, as it's become more understood the diagnosis rate has gone up. Certainly there were kids when I was at school 40+ years ago who back then were labelled dumb and shoved in a corner out the way. Some of them would probably now be correctly diagnosed as autistic. At the other high functioning end it's even worse, very few get diagnosed and even fewer of those are female as they are better at masking it.
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Old 22nd Feb 2019, 16:59
  #29 (permalink)  
 
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Found some references to it.

http://content.time.com/time/health/...548682,00.html

https://slate.com/technology/2006/10...se-autism.html

Still can't find the first full document with the data graphs.
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Old 22nd Feb 2019, 23:31
  #30 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by nonsense View Post
I'd rather be autistic than dead of measles or smallpox or deaf from rubella, etc...
Originally Posted by Dont Hang Up View Post
That rather implies autism is a known but acceptable risk of the MMR. It is not. The whole argument was false and based on self-interest and personal gain.
Perhaps I should clarify.

I am autistic.

I find the idea that autism is worse than the many diseases of the past which vaccinations have very nearly eliminated (smallpox has been completely eliminated) extraordinarily ignorant and offensive. The fact that there is no evidence of any connection between vaccinations and autism just makes such thinking all the more tragic.
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Old 22nd Feb 2019, 23:41
  #31 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by andytug View Post
Interesting stuff... did he take into account the increase in diagnosis rate for autism though, as it's become more understood the diagnosis rate has gone up. Certainly there were kids when I was at school 40+ years ago who back then were labelled dumb and shoved in a corner out the way. Some of them would probably now be correctly diagnosed as autistic. At the other high functioning end it's even worse, very few get diagnosed and even fewer of those are female as they are better at masking it.
Curiously, looking back at my final year of school in 1980, of 86 students, one was already diagnosed at the time and two more of us have since been diagnosed. We were firmly amongst the high achieving maths/science guys streamed into the top of five classes since we were 11yo.

In my view, two factors have lead to the so-called autism epidemic;
1) Vastly better recognition, detection and formal diagnosis in the last decade or two.
2) The emergence of well paid high status professions open to both men and women, leading to more autistic adults becoming parents.
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Old 23rd Feb 2019, 00:34
  #32 (permalink)  
 
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I believe the safe "herd" vaccination rate is 95%. Below that there may be trouble.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/poste...=.4a0b7ac00ec0
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Old 23rd Feb 2019, 01:17
  #33 (permalink)  
 
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The vaccination rate required to achieve herd immunity obviously varies widely with factors such as how effective the vaccine is in preventing the vaccinated individual from being infected, how easily the target disease infects unvaccinated individuals, and even how quickly the surrounding society detects and isolates infected individuals.

The goal of vaccination is not just to protect the individual (eg: travel vaccinations), but the protect the society by reducing the number of new infections per infected person below one. This is herd immunity - the disease fizzles out rather than exploding into an epidemic.

If a vaccine is only say 80% effective, then more of the population needs to be vaccinated to ensure that each infected person infects on average less than one more person.
If a disease is readily detected and quarantined before infecting more people, then doing so obviously reduces transmission and reduces the rate of vaccination required to achieve herd immunity.

For measles, it is generally reckoned that ~90 to 95% vaccination is required..
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Old 23rd Feb 2019, 01:39
  #34 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by nonsense View Post
Perhaps I should clarify.

I am autistic.

I find the idea that autism is worse than the many diseases of the past which vaccinations have very nearly eliminated (smallpox has been completely eliminated) extraordinarily ignorant and offensive. The fact that there is no evidence of any connection between vaccinations and autism just makes such thinking all the more tragic.
I agree with you wholeheartedly, and while I would never cause offence to you, it could be argued that many people would rather have their kids die from the likes of measles than (In their minds) have autistic kids. The perceived threat of autism is obviously greater to them.
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Old 23rd Feb 2019, 03:24
  #35 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Ogre View Post
I agree with you wholeheartedly, and while I would never cause offence to you, it could be argued that many people would rather have their kids die from the likes of measles than (In their minds) have autistic kids. The perceived threat of autism is obviously greater to them.
The real threat is to people who cannot be vaccinated due to some pre-existing condition - they have to depend on the 'herd immunity' .
I've long thought that a partial solution to the anti-vaxxers would be to make them legally liable if their failure to vaccinate leads to the infection of someone who couldn't be vaccinated. Both actual damages for medical care, pain and suffering, and punitive damages due to their willingly putting others in danger.
A few multimillion dollar settlements might have the anti-vaxxers rethinking their position.
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Old 23rd Feb 2019, 04:43
  #36 (permalink)  
 
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An anecdote from a lady I worked with many (40?) years ago.

Her daughter caught measles about age 4 & died at about 13 from measles-related complications. She went from a bright 11 year old to almost a vegetative state by the time she died.

Knowing this story, NOT vaccinating would have required compelling evidence which is just not present in the research literature.

There is risk with any medical intervention, but there are very few children where that risk outweighs the benefits.

regards
layman
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Old 23rd Feb 2019, 15:30
  #37 (permalink)  
 
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Natural immunity protected us before vaccines. We don't live natural lives any more. The little ones got protection through their mother's milk. They also got mild cases of the diseases that surround us when young, and developed a life-long immunity. Now they get a worse case, probably mutated, and suffer more. An example is the nut allergy. Something that did not happen. It is suggested that everyone has some form of allergy to certain nuts but eating a few of them when young develops resistance. Similar to the way people from Asia are allergic to cows milk. If a parent (and society) bans nuts so that a kid never eats any she will not develop this immunity and then when a teenager eats one nut and dies.

I am angry with myself for forcing my daughters to have the Gardisil shots. Now I learn that there might be serious problems for them later in life, and that the shots, contrary to what I was told, need to be repeated frequently to be effective against the type of cancer they were promoted to prevent. Chemicals are dangerous. People who think they are smarter than the rest of us are dangerous too. I know there are side-effects from vaccinations; I have seen them. Does that mean the shots should not be used? Is it better to protect against major diseases that might appear at the risk of some side-effects that cause minor problems? Even if some kids die from those side-effects? Does the government have the right to make those decisions for us? What if, for example, the government made a law that a girl of any age, even as young as 13, could get a free abortion without any medical reason, just for convenience, without telling her parents? Would any government actually do that? (hint; yes they would).

Sometimes the disease is artificial such as autoimmune and vaccine-induced, which to the unvaccinated are serious problems but which would not exist if there were no vaccines in the first place. Create the disease then make money protecting against it? Or even invent a disease and make money selling a product that they say protects you? (have you ever seen the tv ads in the US promoting weird-sounding drugs for crazy diseases? Proof that it happens!).

Here is just one article about this problem, I think it makes sense but you are free to disagree: https://articles.mercola.com/sites/a...-diseases.aspx

Vaccine policies make us susceptible to these diseases. There is certainly something about the various chemicals associated with the vaccines that have been shown to cause health problems. The Measles shot is one that is particularly called out for being ineffective and for causing health problems. Only about one quarter of those who have the vaccination are protected. The flu shot is always found to be ineffective because it is a crapshoot if they choose the right mix of viruses so you get, at best, partial protection. The best protection is a healthy immune system. Can anyone argue against that?

The real reason there is a spike in diseases in the US (and in Europe) is allowing diseased people without medical checks of any kind unlimited access to the country; useful idiots pick them up and take them to 'asylum' states or cities where they infect the locals. What do you expect to happen? Stupid is as stupid does.

What it does prove is that the vaccines do not always work against the diseases. The vaccines are set to whatever the disease was at the time it was made but meanwhile the disease has mutated and the vaccines don't work any longer. Does a vaccine developed in the US many years ago protect against the strain coming from South America? Do we know? Would we be told? It might work somewhat, but is it effective? Do you choose to give it to your kids even if there is a chance it will cause harm because you believe what you are told?

If the vaccines did work, why would you be afraid of people with the disease? You should be immune, right?

Don't just pile on those with genuine concerns about the safety of vaccinations; there might be something happening there that we don't yet know about. After all, you could ask yourself if Big Government (and Big Pharma) would lie to you?
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Old 23rd Feb 2019, 15:53
  #38 (permalink)  
 
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Natural immunity protected us before vaccines.
Well it did but its had a much lower success rate hence the much much higher infant mortality rate. But humans just like any other animal compensated for that by producing more offspring.

And your immune system can be as healthy as you like. Get tetanus through a cut and contact with earth that has it and your stuffed. Most people have never seen a kid with a broken jaw and shatter teeth due tetanus. Visit Africa and see one.

BTW its impossible to get rid of tetanus because its in the soil. Have a google for the Scottish Island of St Kilda to see its effects on unvaccinated communities.
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Old 23rd Feb 2019, 16:40
  #39 (permalink)  
 
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No, natural immunity protected very few before vaccines.

One good example of this is The Plague, and there are many more from history, when human beings lived 'natural' lives. Spanish Flu, anyone?

Newborns do not have a robust/developed immune system, hence the "boost" required from the mother's milk, but this is very limited in the immunity it confers. Only exposure to the antigens can develop the immune system, either the full-on disease itself - potentially very damaging - or the controlled exposure to a vaccine.

​​​​​​For the most part, the immune system develops antibodies AFTER exposure to a new antigen. For millions of people prior to the introduction of vaccines, their immune response was not enough and they were overwhelmed by the disease. Vaccinations cause this immune response to occur upon exposure to an inactive or live, weakened (attenuated) form of the target disease. The patient therefore does not suffer significant symptoms, but the antibodies are produced and are "waiting" - a jump-start.

We wouldn't have ever needed to worry about any diseases if the immune system stopprd them in their tracks, every time.

Incidentally, how do you think smallpox was eradicated??
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Old 23rd Feb 2019, 17:53
  #40 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by boofhead View Post
Natural immunity protected us before vaccines.
No it didn't. Thats why millions of people died of Spanish Flu after the Great War.
Natural immunity protects some from the worst of many minor diseases. But many died and/or were disfigured.
Would you say that Smallpox should be left to natural immunity? No thanks.


As for the rest. Conspiracy theory nonsense. Belongs in the same pile as Chemtrails, Flat Earth and Moon Landing Deniers. The difference is that the latter are harmless amusing distractions. Anti-vaxxers are a danger to society.

Big Pharma!! Jesus Christ grow up!

Last edited by TURIN; 23rd Feb 2019 at 17:56. Reason: cross post with blues and twos due to having an argument about homework with my daughter.
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