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UK Politics Hamsterwheel MkII

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UK Politics Hamsterwheel MkII

Old 23rd Dec 2018, 11:31
  #1881 (permalink)  
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Meanwhile, Daniel Hannan writes and one has to admit that he has a point. Some of those who decry the legal referendum that they lost have done irreparable harm to their country. They should really be rather ashamed of themselves, not quite sack cloth and ashes but close enough perhaps, They have been most excellent fifth columnists and the saddest thing of all is that, by their own admission, they are the best educated, affluent and most intellectually intelligent element of the population.

'If Britain leaves the EU with no deal, we shall have Gina Miller to thank. It was her court case that gave Parliament the decisive say over the disengagement. She hoped that MPs would use it to block Brexit. Instead, they are blocking Theresa May’s withdrawal terms, thus making it likelier that Britain leaves without an agreement. Never underestimate the law of unintended consequences.

I don’t want to single out Ms Miller. A number of Remain-supporting politicians have made a similar miscalculation. By loudly and pompously declaring that they “won’t allow” a no-deal outcome, they have encouraged Brussels to dig in, and so, paradoxically, made a no-deal outcome more probable.

In the immediate aftermath of the referendum, there was an almost universal assumption that a bargain would be reached. Neither side, after all, wanted a disorderly breach, which could risk a disruption in trade, a loss of market confidence and a renewal of the euro crisis. True, Eurocrats reckoned they had the stronger hand, because cross-Channel commerce is disproportionately important to the United Kingdom (and Ireland, come to that). But they didn’t want a breakdown – an outcome that Donald Tusk described as “unthinkable”.

Then along came a succession of British politicians assuring them that there was no need to worry. Sir Vince Cable, Chuka Umunna, Anna Soubry and others asserted that no deal was “not an option”. Sir John Major and Sir Nick Clegg took to a German newspaper to urge the EU to hang tough. Cabinet ministers openly declared that they wouldn’t permit Britain to leave without an agreement.


Look at it from the point of view of an EU negotiator. If the British won’t walk away then, by definition, they have only two options – either to drop Brexit or to sign whatever terms Brussels puts before them. The EU can hardly be blamed, in the circumstances, for hardening its line. Repeatedly assured that Parliament would force British negotiators back to the table, it made increasingly aggressive demands: a massive financial payment, a spell of non-voting membership, the regulatory annexation of Northern Ireland, control of UK trade policy even after Brexit, a continuing role for Euro-judges – and all without any promise of a trade deal in return.

But what if the EU’s assumption is wrong? There may not be enough MPs to halt Brexit – which, after all, remains the official policy of both main parties. And even if there are, there is no obvious mechanism to convert that majority into the necessary legislation. Last week, the Institute for Government considered five procedural ways in which Parliament might seek to block Brexit, and found none of them wholly convincing. While MPs could sabotage the Bills needed to mitigate a no-deal outcome, it is far from clear that they could reverse the referendum without the active connivance of the Executive.

That might yet happen, of course. It is conceivable that, following the defeat of the proposed withdrawal terms in mid-January, the government might flip, withdrawing Article 50 and scheduling a second referendum. But, with less than 100 days until Brexit takes effect, isn’t it at least possible that we shall trundle toward that legal default?

For the avoidance of doubt, I don’t relish the prospect. I wish, though the moment has now passed, that there had been an early compromise around a Swiss-style relationship. But no deal is plainly a less painful outcome than either accepting the vicious terms now being demanded or overturning the referendum result – and with it public confidence in our parliamentary system.

Is there any other way out? Possibly. Of the 585 pages in the Withdrawal Agreement, almost all the criticism is focused on the 175 pages that lay down the operation of the Irish backstop. Remove those pages and the rest would probably pass.

In a completely rational world, Brussels would put that section to one side and agree the other 410 pages. After all, it makes no sense to reject the uncontentious parts of the deal, such as reciprocal rights for each other’s residents, over a backstop that London, Dublin and Brussels all say they never want to see used.

In its own no-deal planning, published last week, the Irish government made clear that even with no deal it would not place any checks at the land border. The UK has said the same thing from the start. So given a choice between no backstop and no deal on anything else, or no backstop but agreement on everything else, both sides should logically pick the latter option. That logic is especially strong for Ireland, which stands to lose more from no deal than any other state, including the UK.

Then again, countries don’t always act logically. Or, to put it more precisely, the interests of the people leading them do not always align with the wider national interest.

Consider what we might call the Freakonomics interpretation of the situation – or, if we are of a more historical bent, the Namierite interpretation. Look, in other words, at the personal incentives. If you were Leo Varadkar, would you rather lead a slightly poorer Ireland while positioning yourself as the nation’s champion against its ancient oppressor, or would you rather lead a slightly wealthier Ireland (for which you’d get no credit, because people attribute prosperity to their own efforts) while being howled down by your opponents for having buckled before the Brits?

As for the rest of the EU, why bother reopening the deal when you keep being told by the British politicians you most like that they will make the UK (in the telling phrase of the former Eurocrat Lord Kerr) “come to heel”?

I keep reading that hardline ERG types have aimed at a no-deal Brexit all along, but it’s not true. Almost everyone would prefer to have a friendly institutional relationship with our immediate neighbours. With a little unity of purpose, we could have secured one. Perhaps we still could. The trouble is, we lack any such unity. Two-and-a-half years after the referendum, we are still fighting the sodding thing.

Almost from the moment the result came in, a group of Continuity Remainers hit on a way to overturn it, namely to ensure that the eventual exit terms were so bad that even Eurosceptics would prefer to stay in. They have succeeded amply in the first part of their plan: the proposed exit terms are indeed abominable. But I feel they have underestimated their countrymen’s bloody-mindedness. I wrote in this column six months ago that we had a bad habit of switching from vague conciliation to terrible resolve just when it seems too late. I sense such a moment now.'
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Old 23rd Dec 2018, 11:37
  #1882 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by sfm818 View Post
And how many millions (Plural) were denied a vote according to your idea of a functional democracy? Those most directly affected by losing their hard won right to live and work in another part of Europe. This younger generation, excluded and short-changed by their own political leaders, are the innocent victims of a process that was anything but democratic.
Just a reminder....

If you're complaining that the younger generations will not be allowed to leave the UK to live and work in the EU, well that's a decision that the EU will have taken.

The UK will not stop its citizens and residents from going to live and work in the EU.

Having said that, I find this argument from UK's Remainers to be illusory - I wonder how many of the UK's younger generation have sufficiently fluent Croatian / Latvian / Romanian / Bulgarian / Greek / Portuguese / etc to actually win and hold down a decent job in those countries. And would be happy to do the same job there for anything up to 50% less salary than they'd earn in the UK.

Yes...I know it's more than probable that when it comes to it, the EU will suddenly decide that Freedon of Movement is not the be-all and end-all of economic prosperity for its members - but then again the USA, Australia, Japan, Brazil, Sth Africa, in fact most countries in the G20, don't think so either but seem to manage quite OK without it.
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Old 23rd Dec 2018, 11:38
  #1883 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Sprogget View Post
Unicorns, rainbows & sunlit uplands. There's none so blind as those who won't see.


"Face it there is none, zero, no evidence whatsoever that Brexit is anything but a minor inconvenience to most organisations."

That^^^ is a classic of the genre. As Previously, furnish me with a credible economic analysis that is neither two years old, nor Patrick bloody Minford that shows the UK benefiting economically from ANY form of Brexit & I'll happily change my mind. Over to you.
I have never said the UK would benefit economically from Brexit, largely becuase I can't predict the future Anyway, life isn't solely about economics, dont you know?
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Old 23rd Dec 2018, 12:08
  #1884 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Hussar 54 View Post
... The UK will not stop its citizens and residents from going to live and work in the EU ...
That is exactly what is being determined and set out by the May (Transition) cabinet.

Somebody mentioned earlier how removing the backstop arrangement could allow the "best possible deal" to finally be signed off, but that goes to the essence of European unification and why EU negotiators are working so hard to preserve the GFA.

One experience shared by countries in western Europe and their former Eastern bloc neighbours. They were (until recently in some cases) occupied territories. Britain was instrumental in liberating Europe in the mid twentieth century, but to hear Theresa May talk about taking back control of Britain's borders makes absolutely no sense. It is that natural border, a coastline, which has protected Britain from the worst effects of military invasion - or illegal immigration.

EU negotiators can probably testify from personal experience (or accounts handed down from their parents, aunts and uncles generation) the difference between war and peace. That is why they are working harder than the UK goverment to protect the best long term interests of people living in Ireland.
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Old 23rd Dec 2018, 12:17
  #1885 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by andrewn View Post
I have never said the UK would benefit economically from Brexit, largely becuase I can't predict the future Anyway, life isn't solely about economics, dont you know?
Nope, perhaps not, but you have repeatedly characterised it as a minor inconvenience & I see declined to support your position with anything other than speculation when invited to do so. Not all opinions are equal & yours is laughable, frankly, so prove me wrong.
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Old 23rd Dec 2018, 12:19
  #1886 (permalink)  
 
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If you're complaining that the younger generations will not be allowed to leave the UK to live and work in the EU, well that's a decision that the EU will have taken.

The UK will not stop its citizens and residents from going to live and work in the EU.
Twisting facts like that there's surely a job waiting for you on RT!

The facts are that a narrow majority of the UK electorate that bothered to vote determined that free movement ends both from the UK to the EU, and the EU to UK. A big chunk of those voting to leave did so purely to stop free movement, thus depriving the children, and more likely grand children to opportunity of unhindered opportunity to live and work in any one of 27 other European nations. The EU takes absolutely no blame, as it doesn't for the mess that the UK now finds itself.

Had the UK voted the other way none of those rights would have changed.

Cavortingcheetah

I would really like someone to explain to me how holding a new referendum based upon the deal on the table is some sort of dereliction of democracy. Surely more democracy is a good thing, especially when new information comes to light.
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Old 23rd Dec 2018, 12:22
  #1887 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Hussar 54 View Post



Having said that, I find this argument from UK's Remainers to be illusory - I wonder how many of the UK's younger generation have sufficiently fluent Croatian / Latvian / Romanian / Bulgarian / Greek / Portuguese / etc to actually win and hold down a decent job in those countries. And would be happy to do the same job there for anything up to 50% less salary than they'd earn in the UK.
Je me demande quelle est la pertinence de ca? C'est certainement possible d'habiter et travailler a l'etranger sans parler la langue.du pays loc.
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Old 23rd Dec 2018, 12:25
  #1888 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Sprogget View Post
Bit emotive aren't you? I'm lecturing no one - trust me, you'd know all about it if you were on the end of a lecture from me.
OMG! Who are you? Ronnie Pickering? Do you really think that you are so influential and important? You could be a frustrated spotty teenager sat behind your PC spouting rubbish for all anyone knows.
Hate to break it you, but your opinion and vote is no more important than anyone else's.
You must be Pace MK2!
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Old 23rd Dec 2018, 12:30
  #1889 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by The Nip View Post

OMG! Who are you? Ronnie Pickering? Do you really think that you are so influential and important? You could be a frustrated spotty teenager sat behind your PC spouting rubbish for all anyone knows.
Hate to break it you, but your opinion and vote is no more important than anyone else's.
You must be Pace MK2!
Well, if you'd bothered to read the thread, you's know I'm a businessman in his forties, but thanks for playing.
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Old 23rd Dec 2018, 12:32
  #1890 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by sfm818 View Post
That is exactly what is being determined and set out by the May (Transition) cabinet.

Somebody mentioned earlier how removing the backstop arrangement could allow the "best possible deal" to finally be signed off, but that goes to the essence of European unification and why EU negotiators are working so hard to preserve the GFA.

One experience shared by countries in western Europe and their former Eastern bloc neighbours. They were (until recently in some cases) occupied territories. Britain was instrumental in liberating Europe in the mid twentieth century, but to hear Theresa May talk about taking back control of Britain's borders makes absolutely no sense. It is that natural border, a coastline, which has protected Britain from the worst effects of military invasion - or illegal immigration.

EU negotiators can probably testify from personal experience (or accounts handed down from their parents, aunts and uncles generation) the difference between war and peace. That is why they are working harder than the UK goverment to protect the best long term interests of people living in Ireland.
I think we can agree.

Those who know me know that Frau H and myself grew up on opposite sides of a divided Germany.

Even in those days, and in that environment, Economic and Social Migration was only East to West - apart from the very odd Merkel family and a few weirdo students, nobody went East.

Of course, there has also been a couple of generations of North to South migration inside Europe, mainly retirees, and the past 10-15 years South to North migration of the youngest generation of adults from Spain, Portugal. Greece, Italy, etc, trying to escape the hopeless and tragic unemployment rates for their generation in their own countries.

But there still hasn't been. and I don't believe there ever will be, any significant West to East migration in Europe.

Unfortunately, and for the wrong reasons, I think too many people in the UK make freedom of movement / migration / border controls / etc the ( incorrect ) focus of the continuing Leave / Remain argument, which is why I replied to you the way I did.
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Old 23rd Dec 2018, 12:41
  #1891 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by ATNotts View Post
Twisting facts like that there's surely a job waiting for you on RT!

The facts are that a narrow majority of the UK electorate that bothered to vote determined that free movement ends both from the UK to the EU, and the EU to UK. A big chunk of those voting to leave did so purely to stop free movement, thus depriving the children, and more likely grand children to opportunity of unhindered opportunity to live and work in any one of 27 other European nations. The EU takes absolutely no blame, as it doesn't for the mess that the UK now finds itself.

Had the UK voted the other way none of those rights would have changed.

Cavortingcheetah

I would really like someone to explain to me how holding a new referendum based upon the deal on the table is some sort of dereliction of democracy. Surely more democracy is a good thing, especially when new information comes to light.

Will the UK stop its residents or citizens going to live and work in the EU ?

Simple yes or no....

Will the EU stop UK residents or citizens going to live and work in the EU ?

Let's wait and see....

But as I said - if they can't, then it'll be the EU which made that decision, not the UK.
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Old 23rd Dec 2018, 12:50
  #1892 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by sfm818 View Post
And how many millions (Plural) were denied a vote according to your idea of a functional democracy? Those most directly affected by losing their hard won right to live and work in another part of Europe. This younger generation, excluded and short-changed by their own political leaders, are the innocent victims of a process that was anything but democratic.
Maybe you could let us have your views on who and what age groups should be allowed to vote. Maybe those age 6+ should be allowed. Maybe there should be an upper limit, say 55 who should have no say. 🤔

I wasn't allowed to vote in 1975. Do I get a chance to revisit that vote?
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Old 23rd Dec 2018, 13:08
  #1893 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Hussar 54 View Post
I was always useless at numbers - whether bold or not....

But if you want to claim those that didn't vote and add it them to the number that voted to Remain, then there's no reason for those that voted to Leave to add the same non-voters to their total of voters who voted to leave.

Which would mean, of course, more people voted to leave than to Remain.

Or maybe you know and have personally spoken to all these 10 million non-voters and know how they would have voted if they could have been arsed or allowed to vote.

Try another tack - which ever way Remainers try to cut the numbers incorporating non-voters is ( 1 ) hypothetical and (2) desparation and (3) to me, anyway, amusing
Try as many 'tacks' as you like. Fill your boots with them if they aren't too sharp.

But the statement that "29.1 million did not vote to leave" is literally correct and cannot be denied.
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Old 23rd Dec 2018, 13:17
  #1894 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Sallyann1234 View Post
Try as many 'tacks' as you like. Fill your boots with them if they aren't too sharp.

But the statement that "29.1 million did not vote to leave" is literally correct and cannot be denied.

And the statement that more than the 29.1 million who did not vote to leave did not vote to remain is also literally correct and cannot be denied.

Numbers, huh .....Like politicos - never give a straitghtforward answer except to those who want to believe what they say.....
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Old 23rd Dec 2018, 13:26
  #1895 (permalink)  
 
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Those who do not vote , do not count.
Anyone who does not vote ,that could vote should be ashamed of themselves.
The long lead up to the referendum gave everyone time to think about what they thought was right.
The decision to leave was a long well thought out process . They had enough time to debate and think about what kind of Democracy they wanted to live under.
The people spoke , any politician who speaks against the voice of the people is a tyrant and should be denounced as such..
Another vote ? What then best out of three ? Best out of five ? Until you get the results the tyrants want ?
​​​​​​
vox populi vox Dei

Last edited by fitliker; 23rd Dec 2018 at 13:37.
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Old 23rd Dec 2018, 13:54
  #1896 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Sprogget View Post
Nope, perhaps not, but you have repeatedly characterised it as a minor inconvenience & I see declined to support your position with anything other than speculation when invited to do so. Not all opinions are equal & yours is laughable, frankly, so prove me wrong.
I see why this is called the hamsterwheel thread now!
I did give an opinion on the (possible) impacts of Brexit, in a post above, but let's be honest no one knows, so why pretend we can predict the future?

What I do know is the most pessimistic of assumptions rarely come to pass, and I really do struggle with the default Remainer position of the "roof is caving in", when it clearly isn't.

But, hey, let's take another spin round the wheel where you tell me I'm stupid and my opinions aren't relevant just because I disagree with you (another unsavoury trait of staunch remainers it seems).
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Old 23rd Dec 2018, 14:04
  #1897 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Gertrude the Wombat View Post
One suspects that was written by someone who doesn't have budget responsibility for his organisation's expenditure on visa consultants. And we haven't even left yet.
And how many of us do? Approx 0.001% of the population? Any wide ranging regulation change will impact a subset of pen pushers! I' afraid I'm genuinely failing to see your point, once again.
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Old 23rd Dec 2018, 14:05
  #1898 (permalink)  
 
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Setting aside that I haven't called you any names at all - a leaver trait to get personal at the drop of a hat, in lieu of persuasive argument q.v. The Nip et al.- you're free to express any opinion you wish. Yours though are expressions of blind optimism. That you keep repeating them adds no weight whatsoever. The rest of us working directly in industries at the sharp end of this are more persuaded by analysis, discussions with colleagues, customers & suppliers. Again, I invite you to provide me with solid, hard analysis supporting your view or am I to be treated to a fourth of fifth hearty assurance that it'll be alright, we won the war you know?
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Old 23rd Dec 2018, 14:09
  #1899 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Sallyann1234 View Post
Try as many 'tacks' as you like. Fill your boots with them if they aren't too sharp.

But the statement that "29.1 million did not vote to leave" is literally correct and cannot be denied.
Remain LOST by nearly 1.3M votes! It wasn't a "close run thing" by any account. It was a clear decisive loss for Remain. Why is that SO difficult for remainers to get their head around?
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Old 23rd Dec 2018, 14:10
  #1900 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Krystal n chips View Post
You also seem to have missed the term "contingency planning ".....this appearing with ever increasing frequency in Gov't statements. The contingencies being planned for do include the potential for civil unrest you will be gratified to learn, they also include many others, such as logistics and health to name but two which will affect the whole of the UK population given our dependency on both.

That, and the contingencies we are aware of are those in the public domain. I would be far more interested to learn about those kept firmly away from public scrutiny given these tend to be far more unacceptable both politically and personally to the electorate.
I share the interest in the second paragraph.

For me, the degree of that interest increases with each "official" mention of a second referendum. Frankly, I have lost both trust and respect for the incumbent authorities, as have so many people. With this loss comes the increased possibility of public insurrection. Of course I'm gratified to learn that those notionally in charge are planning contingent action, but when this (in)action includes the scrapping of Boris's water cannons and the embarrassingly pathetic response to a simple drone incursion at Gatwick, (something pilots have been predicting for years, governments shamefully have ignored and the police seem to have collared the wrong people anyway), I have to say that I have little confidence in this sorry administration's ability satisfactorily to manage any outcome - particularly when the hapless Grayling is involved. We have become a nation emasculated by incompetence, of which the human misery of Gatwick and the deranged mismanagement of Brexit are but two very sad examples.
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