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UK Politics Hamsterwheel MkII

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UK Politics Hamsterwheel MkII

Old 14th Dec 2018, 18:01
  #1401 (permalink)  
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The Swiss Government have announced that a trade agreement has been reached between the UK and Switzerland to “maintain existing economic and trade relations with the country after its departure from the European Union” whether or not a deal is reached with the EU. The Swiss Federal Council announced that if the UK leaves the EU in a disorderly manner, it could sign and apply the agreement from the date on which the UK leaves the EU.

Announcing the agreement, the Swiss Embassy tweeted that the agreement will “support existing commercial and economic relations between the two countries post-Brexit… regardless of the eventual Brexit scenario.”
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Old 14th Dec 2018, 18:06
  #1402 (permalink)  
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PN, at best the timetable is perilous. Any single filibuster or amendment which has to be debated and it becomes impossible. And any alternate to TM’s bill becomes totally impossible once you consider the time for drafting, let alone serious debate and anything like a referendum. Even if, somehow, an extension of 3 months could be requested an agreed, the timetable becomes almost impossible.

Oh, and throw in the possibility of an election and a parliamentary prorogation of at least 6 weeks....

After which it it would mean reapplying for membership......

So when will the deal return to the Commons?

21 January is the deadline in law when if no deal has yet been reached, the government must within 5 days of that date, make a statement – that’s 26 January. And there needs to be a vote within 5 sitting days – that’s 27 January. There’s some debate as to whether legally this is still triggered now there is a deal, but politically 21 January has taken root as an expectation on government.

Supposing the deal passes, you then introduce the WAB [Withdrawal Agreement Bill] straight away. And supposing you use EU Withdrawal Act as a template for how much time for scrutiny – then you need 13 days in the Commons and close to 20 in the Lords and 4 in ping-pong. 37 days.

Not including Fridays by my count from 21 January, and if you still allow for a February recess, there are only 36 sitting days. So scrutiny time is now going to be squeezed even if you take every stage back to back.

And doing all of that – as people speculate and I fear – with votes that are not your own party’s means you will be very vulnerable to amendments and additional ‘asks’. If any of those borrowed MPs say ‘Oh we’d like you to do X’, then you had better do it or lose support.

And while all of this happens there is no time for any other legislation. Which means that the time next week and the first two weeks back really do need to be used. The Finance Bill and the Healthcare (Int arrangements) Bill in particular need time. Or will votes be avoided?”......

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Old 14th Dec 2018, 18:09
  #1403 (permalink)  
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Indeed, after all the vote was leave or stay, no mention of hard, soft, deals etc on the ballot paper I put my mark on, try telling that to a remainer though and all you will get is personal abuse.

We wont leave with no deal, in fact I doubt very much we will leave at all it simply will not be allowed.
The knightsbridge classes and above might not be a majority of voters but they are more important than any amount of council estate scummies, their sensibilities and protected lifestyles must not be put at risk the fact it makes a mockery of and throws scorn on the most Democratic event this country has hosted in Decades
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Old 14th Dec 2018, 18:10
  #1404 (permalink)  
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Mr Varadkar was looking very smug as he crowed about "all for one, one for all" and was responsible for the change to paragraph 5 which had held some small crumbs of hope for May. Here's hoping that there isn't a no deal Brexit for his/Ireland's sake.
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Old 14th Dec 2018, 18:10
  #1405 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by Sprogget View Post
There won't be a no deal brexit.

​​​​​It's a fantasy for morons who would sooner shoot themselves in the face than face up to reality.
Morons who think there will be a no deal exit are wrong; there will be a deal. Is that what you mean?

Or are you saying there will be no exit?

Or do you mean there will be a deal? If the latter, would you care to say what that deal may be?
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Old 14th Dec 2018, 18:15
  #1406 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by Pontius Navigator View Post
Reading the last few points it would seem that there is only one outcome - hard Brexit.

​​​​​​It was said that it is too late for Parliament to revoke Article 50.
This is not true. The only requirement is that a revocation must come out of a national democratic process such as an election, a referendum or an act of parliament. An election can be held 3 weeks from the initial call. If the winning party stood on a manifesto commitment to withdraw the art.50 notification then the ECJ said that's good enough for them to just write to the Council to switch it off (I'm not suggesting that it's going to happen - merely that it is technically possible). A referendum could not be held in time without a change to the election & referendums legislation, and this is frequently cited as a reason why it can't be done, BUT... there is no actual reason why legislation cannot be passed within a few days, and certainly within a few weeks. If the government introduced a fast-tracked, single-clause bill to withdraw the Article 50 notice it could actually be passed in less than two weeks if it had a significant majority who could prevent it being amended. A single-clause bill can go through committee stage in one day, and it can then return immediately to the house for 3rd reading. Indeed it is not completely unknown for simple bills to go through 2nd reading, committee/report stage and 3rd reading on the same day. So whilst it would be unusual, it is NOT impossible for UK to withdraw even now - it is NOT too late.

Why don't we just chuck the towel in, say OK hard it is and Ompah, ompah, stick it up Junker, and move on now rather than muck along for 3 months. A large proportion of the 52% will get what they thought they were voting for.
How do you know that "a large proportion" of the 52% want a hard brexit? You have no way of knowing this, and even if you wrote it on the side of a bus it wouldn't make it inherently true. One of the best truisms I've heard recently is the suggestion that 17 million people voted Leave for 17 million reasons, while 16 million voted Remain all for the same reason. Again, this is conjecture, but the whole reason why we are in this mess at this stage is precisely BECAUSE there is no consensus on what "Leave" actually meant, even amongst those who voted for it.

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Old 14th Dec 2018, 18:17
  #1407 (permalink)  
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Leaving aside the obvious that Russia did interfere in the referendum-we know they did with the Trump election so even if it was only a dry run - they would have had a go at our vote. If Putin and Co support anyone in UK these days its the far right (which they do) not the left. Maybe back in the 1950s when Britain had things like manufacturing industry and a bit of influence in the world they would try and infiltrate Labour and the now non existent powerful unions but that makes no sense at all now and both ideologically and pragmatically they would support the far right today as a means of keeping us and Europe off balance. Of course they couldn't really care a monkeys about us on our own we are too far away and anyway they own already most of London-or the part the Arabs dont. Funny how the traitors in UK politics turned out to be the Tory right not the labour left isnt it.

Of course there is our nuclear deterrent but how independent is that- its almost entirely American technology and strange as they can be in the States they take control pretty seriously and having worked with major US corporations and the DoD for much of my career I cannot see there not being some little backdoor mechanism that means our deterrent wont work on its own. It is after all exactly what we would do with roles revered and they have no real reason to trust us after many years of lax security on the UKs part.

There is also that issue of trust on a wider scale-looking at our chaotic deluded toys out of the pram behaviour who is going to rush to do a trade deal with us when we have proven yet again that as a nation we cannot be trusted and as soon as things happen that we dont like we want to change the rules of the game. As a huge net importer with a massive current account negative imbalance what do we have to export to all these new trading partners . Lets just take Australia as an example where there are jobs with Aussie companies on the internet already stating basically they are looking for people with an EU but NOT a Uk passport -even further imbalance in immigration status with the Aussies making life hard for us while we give out UK rights to everyone with Brit antecedents.

And lets just say the Eu really did decide to be nasty and said to these countries -if you give the Brits a better deal that we have then you are not going to get any future deal from us-not much of a decision there with 55m vs 330 M. Again having negotiated for years with our apparently legally elected PM and leader some of our politicians now want to change the rules and threaten things like not paying back what we owe-that will look really good to potential new trade partners won't it leaving aside the bare faced arrogance with which many of our potential new trade partners have experienced directly. Or perhaps the wonderful idea that we should threat Ireland with starvation - we have don that once before- but that left a century of hatred.

I bought a friend a present today- jigsaw puzzle- he has sensitivity and control probs with his fingers and is encouraged to do that sort of fine twiddly sort of thing -the puzzle is called Map of the British Empire . Just a glance that shows you that 95% of everything pink is 3000 miles away or more whereas three of the major EU capitals are all nearer to London than Edinburgh is and that France is barely an hour on train or plane and the furthest flung capital of the worlds biggest trading bloc and the most affluent region on the planet by far is barely 1500 miles away and its major capitals are much much closer than that. As regards our new 'Global Britain' * many of the larger countries are close in either distance or current trade links to mega economies ; Canada to USA, Caribbean to USA , Aussie and NZ to China and Japan, India-China etc. Do any of them really want to weaken those links in even the tiniest way to fit in special deals with their former colonial masters . Of course the biggest ex colony of the lot ,the USA, remember we are their oldest enemy not oldest friend, now has a stridently avowed policy of America First which translated means here is the deal sign it or f--k off.

But never mind we can be Great again except of course people forget that particular 'Great ' refers to size compared to a region of France not fame and achievement.

* Global Britain - misnomer referring to a peripheral European county (we will always be part of Europe in one sense) that appears to many outside the country, known quaintly to us a 'Foreigners', introverted, backward looking xenophobic almost racist in a bizarre way peculiar to itself, with unrealistic aspirations which has no merchant shipping fleet and cannot even expand its major airport to allow more flights to the capitals of these wonderful new partners. Nevertheless they will fall at our feet to recreate our colonial past and won't for a minute remember the humiliation and deprivation heaped on them in those days.
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Old 14th Dec 2018, 18:17
  #1408 (permalink)  
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No I mean people who breezily punt we'll leave with no deal are either insulated, selfish wreckers who are in it for perverse ideological hang ups or morons who don't understand the consequences.

Good news with Switzerland, there's about 1.5% of gdp in the bag. Trebles all round eh!
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Old 14th Dec 2018, 18:24
  #1409 (permalink)  
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An election can be held 3 weeks from the initial call.
Legally parliament is prorogued (dissolved) a minimum of 25 working days (5 weeks) prior to the date of an election. The State Opening of Parliament then takes place on the second Monday following the Thursday election when the Queen’s Speech lays down the government’s programme, so the earliest any bill can be presented is the Tuesday after, another 8 working days.

Call it it a minimum of 7 weeks - not 3. In fact, looking at the other essential debates such as over the Queens’s speech etc etc, call it 8-9 weeks.


Last edited by ORAC; 14th Dec 2018 at 19:06.
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Old 14th Dec 2018, 19:19
  #1410 (permalink)  
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My brother and his wife are typical of keen Brexit supporters. Both born within WW2 they have the state pension plus a fairly modest company one. Probably £20k a year in total. I put it to them that a hard/no deal Brexit costing them 10% of their total income would be unacceptable. They disagreed violently and suggested that it would be good value. Now in my book that is to-hotally nuts. If Remain was going to cost me two grand a year I would be as enthusiastic as JRM is fir Leave.

The only conclusion I can draw from this is that they are incredibly stupid. How many Leave supporters on here would get prepared to suffer a loss of ten per cent of their income to leave the EU?
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Old 14th Dec 2018, 19:24
  #1411 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by PDR1 View Post
This is not true. The only requirement is that a revocation must come out of a national democratic process such as an election, a referendum or an act of parliament.
There is a argument that simply a decision of the PM is sufficient - the Miller case said that it wasn't a sufficient process to take away people's rights, but that doesn't mean it's not a sufficient process to retain people's rights. The CJEU having given its decision back to the Scottish courts it's now for them, the Scottish courts, to decide what the "national democratic process" can and can't be. (Yes I think it's slightly weird that this is going through Scottish rather than English courts too, but that's where we are.)
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Old 14th Dec 2018, 19:37
  #1412 (permalink)  
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@EM. What makes you think that's incredibly stupid and not representative. It could easily be portrayed as a sacrifice worthy of a good cause, and a temporary setback at that. I would focus on loss of jobs and that isn't 10% or temporary. A large slice of the population thinks they have a chance of winning the lottery jackpot at 43 million to 1 against. At the moment I would be looking at the collapse of governance as the most immediate problem. People are getting ready for a pro-brexit protest, I was startled by the hard cold emotion.
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Old 14th Dec 2018, 19:56
  #1413 (permalink)  
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Just been doing the maths.

If TM brings the bill before the HoC on Monday 21st January the, presumably, there would be at least 2 days of debate to finish that interrupted in December before it came to a vote, and tha5 assumes no amendments and debates in amendment.

Assuming a vote and it failing on the 23rd, then JC could call for a vote of no confidence on Thursday 24th. Assuming it passes a further 14 days must pass to see if an alternate government can be formed, taking us to 6th Feb.

The PM must then agree the date of an election with the Queen, allowing a minimum of 25 working days in between. That makes the very earliest Election Day Thursday March 14th. That’s very unlikely as the PM has to go to the palace and agree a day and the appropriate parliamentary work has to be done before parliament is prorogued, but let’s take it as possible.

Following the election the earliest date for State Opening of Parliament and Queen’s speech after an election is in fact the second Wednesday, not a Monday. That brings us to the 27th of March. The debate on the Queen’s speech then follows in a set format taking at least 1-2 working days (normally 5-6) before before other legislation can be introduced. Which takes us to, at the very, very earliest 30th March.

Brexit having occurred the day before.

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Old 14th Dec 2018, 20:02
  #1414 (permalink)  
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There is a argument that simply a decision of the PM is sufficient - the Miller case said that it wasn't a sufficient process to take away people's rights, but that doesn't mean it's not a sufficient process to retain people's rights.
Because, thanks to the Miller case, A50 was enshrined in an act of Parliament which the PM cannot just override. The bill must therefore either be repealed or superseded.
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Old 14th Dec 2018, 20:26
  #1415 (permalink)  
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There wont be any serious pro brexit process if referendum 2 works out the sane and sensible way. Sure there are far more violent nutters in the Brexit camp but many have changed there mind after seeing the consequence-sad to say more than a few have died or become seriously infirm a good few didnt care anyway and just voted the way the Sun Mail and Express told them ( the Mail has changed tack radically since the dumped the wicked evil hypocrite who used to edit them-) and telegraph readers don t riot .

But there is a hard core of cold unceasing rabid hatred for anything foreign and while someone on 20K a year willing to go down to 18 k can only be described as stupid beyond belief or , as is most like the case completely ignorant and in the same camp as the people who say they voted Brexit so we would have an Empire again. we should be more patriotic and buy English cars or that she was happy with Euro imposing a Visa fee as there were better places than Europe like Tenerife where she always went on holiday. They are all real cases honest. However the really wicked thing is the right wing efforts to get us out of the Eu so they can impose a real 'class matters 'society , irrepreably damage the NHS, put people in fear of losing their jobs, further erode employment conditions and push us closer to trumps America and that is just pure evil.
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Old 14th Dec 2018, 20:29
  #1416 (permalink)  
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If we leave without a deal, does it mean we wont have to pay the 39 billion. Lots of hot air about something to do with Irish backsides, but nothing about what the 39000000000 peanuts are for.Could it possibly be for a go at the Euro Lottery.
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Old 14th Dec 2018, 20:39
  #1417 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by ORAC View Post
Because, thanks to the Miller case, A50 was enshrined in an act of Parliament which the PM cannot just override. The bill must therefore either be repealed or superseded.
That's a domestic matter, which may or may not have any effect on the Scottish case.
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Old 14th Dec 2018, 20:48
  #1418 (permalink)  
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Such matters are are not constitutionally devolved to Holyrood or the Scottish courts, but retained by Westminster, which passed the A50 bill. And, as stated in the EU ruling, it is therefore necessary for Westminster to repeal or supersede it.

”Article 50 TEU must be interpreted as meaning that, where a Member State has notified the European Council, in accordance with that article, of its intention to withdraw from the European Union, that article allows that Member State — for as long as a withdrawal agreement concluded between that Member State and the European Union has not entered into force or, if no such agreement has been concluded, for as long as the two-year period laid down in Article 50(3) TEU, possibly extended in accordance with that paragraph, has not expired — to revoke that notification unilaterally, in an unequivocal and unconditional manner, by a notice addressed to the European Council in writing, after the Member State concerned has taken the revocation decision in accordance with its constitutional requirements........”
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Old 14th Dec 2018, 21:25
  #1419 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by Sallyann1234 View Post
No personal abuse from me, racedo. I'm not calling you names. The forum rules forbid it.

Is it not a fact that you spring into action when Russia is mentioned?
Is it not a fact that you just diverted discussion from the UK Brexit to Google in the US?
Those were the matters I commented on.

It is a UK POLITICS thread. Therefore all politics is in there. You claimed Russia interfered in Brexit vote, same garbage that Russia interfered in US election. Google proven Russian news media spent $4,700 on promoting news stories on it. There is no evidence Russia interefered in Brexit, frankly as a remainer with most friends voting brexit I know NONE influenced by media campaign. They were in favour of exiting before vote happened.

Media campaign blaming someone else is because they don't get it. Hell even I saw it pre the vote where London media were telling people what to do with the Glitterati supporting it. People had had enough of being abused and told what they can do, what they can think. Political correctness and every other type of crap people had listened to and Brxit vote was a chance to tell the establishment to GFY.

This is why Trump was elected in the US, why Macron is under pressure in France, voters tired of the same garbage being pushed on them.

The fact you never see it shows how out of touch you are and willing to parrot whatever the media states.
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Old 14th Dec 2018, 21:31
  #1420 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by Sprogget View Post
Where did Arron Banks' £8m come from?
Don't know. But if you do the National Crime Agency, who are investigation the source of funds would be only to willing to see your evidence.

Banks claims it is from his businesses. Until proven otherwise he has a right to be taken at his word, much as i hate the toady.
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