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UK Politics Hamsterwheel MkII

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UK Politics Hamsterwheel MkII

Old 11th Dec 2018, 10:27
  #1201 (permalink)  
 
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The SNP has some front.

Wee Nicky Krankie has been quiet lately (it is panto season so she must be busy) but pops up today urging Labour to call a vote of no confidence in the government. Well Nicky, you are a great proponent of independence so why are you hiding along with Buttons Cable behind Corbyn's skirts? Any party can call a vote of no confidence but should it be lost that's it until next year. Braveheart? Perhaps not.
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Old 11th Dec 2018, 11:26
  #1202 (permalink)  
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
 
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It is sad, but true, the overriding factor in Brexit is now the Backstop. Why? Unforttunately I believe it has been weaponised by the present Taoiseach along with the EU.

As background my parents were Irish, my grandfather ran gelignite for the IRA during the 1910-1920s and I was at school in Kilkenny during the last 1960s early 1970s at a seminary where our prefects were NI catholic seminarians displaying the rubber bullets shot at “our people” and the teachers collected guns and ammunition for the IRA. I was then in the military during the rest of the Troubles, until the Good Friday agreement.

One of the major conclusions I carried away from that agreement was that everyone recognised that, due to demographic factors, their would eventually be a nationalist majority in the north which would wish to join with the south, whether it would be in 2, 3 or 4 generations. The main consideration being to ensure the Unionist community that this would a slow democratic process where their interests would always be taken into account. Which is why the terms of the agreement not only laid down a shared government in Stormont - but that the Unionist community would always have a voice and a veto in any changes to the agreement.

Enda Kenny understood this and was careful to set up joint Irish/UK/NI committees to try and find a mutual way forward.

Not it only has Varadkar torn up all that understanding, but his foreign minister, Simon Coveney went as far as to brag to a committee in the Dáil that he looked forward to a united Ireland in “his political lifetime”.

In other circumstances a backstop might have been agreed with the Unionists where the north being in a customs union had many advantages to the region but where they had a veto over its introduction if it proved necessary. Indeed it would have given them a whip hand over Westminster.

As as it is, it is seen by both the Unionists in NI, and Westminster, as a political attempt to divide the UK and force an early union with the south. With all statements from Brussels and Europe today saying the backstop is inviolate, and will be required in any future agreement of any description.

I cannot see any such agreement of any description which would now get through the HoC. Hence the only options are either a total revocation of A50 or a no-deal exit. The latter will take place at the end of March unless the former should be agreed.

Personally, I cannot see a mechanism by which this can presently happen, with no possibility that TM, or any replacement Conservative PM, agreeing to bring forward such legislation; and the Conservative MPs and DUP, along with other Brexit supporting MPs, being able to defeat any vote of no confidence in the government and prevent another general election.








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Old 11th Dec 2018, 11:39
  #1203 (permalink)  
Está servira para distraerle.
 
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Surely the thing for Britain to do now is to move gracefully and with determination of spirit out of the EU altogether. Her nuclear submarines should be dispersed over a wide area of the smaller seas of the northern hemisphere while her shiny new aircraft carrier could also have a significant role in any such logistical distribution of forces that would protect Britain's fishing fleet and ensure the safe flow of cross channel commercial traffic. At some suitable time in the future, the capitals of the European hegemony should be informed that any intention to raise a European army would be interpreted as an act of aggression that would provoke a firm response. The United States, under its present ruler Donald Trump, whose leadership style and skills must surely be missed in the UK, will have little choice but to ally itself with old Albion, leading perhaps to the deployment of a US battle fleet in the Bay of Biscay and a rapid change of negotiation tactics on the part of the politicians in Berlaymot who will by then be in an utter FRIT, as the Beast of Bolsover might say.
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Old 11th Dec 2018, 11:45
  #1204 (permalink)  
 
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I don't recall seeing any of that on a bus which is a shame since were it, then this whole farrago might well have been avoided.

However, it would be pleasant if on just one occasion, a Brexit supporter were to come along here & acknowledge that the customs union & single market effectively comprise a border between countries within it & outside and that border is real & there for an actual purpose. And furthermore the leave debate not only ignored this reality but lied about it to the extent that not only is the very union now threatened but there is no practical solution to it except to ride over the red line choices - and choices is what they are - made by the prime minister, then the fault lies with us and only, not the Irish, not the remainers, not the EU but those who chose a path without working through the consequences of that choice.

It's a daily, recurring theme of pointing fingers & blaming others because it has become simply impossible to own the lies.
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Old 11th Dec 2018, 13:11
  #1205 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by WilliumMate View Post
The SNP has some front.

Wee Nicky Krankie has been quiet lately (it is panto season so she must be busy) but pops up today urging Labour to call a vote of no confidence in the government. Well Nicky, you are a great proponent of independence so why are you hiding along with Buttons Cable behind Corbyn's skirts? Any party can call a vote of no confidence but should it be lost that's it until next year. Braveheart? Perhaps not.
Willum, is that strictly true? Doesn't the once-a-year challenge rule only apply to leadership contests from within? Happy to be corrected.

CG
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Old 11th Dec 2018, 13:22
  #1206 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by charliegolf View Post
Willum, is that strictly true? Doesn't the once-a-year challenge rule only apply to leadership contests from within? Happy to be corrected.

CG
I believe that under the Fixed Parliament Act one vote of no confidence in a 12 month period if that vote is lost by the proposer. Stand to be corrected though.

I see the SNP have said that if Corbyn hasn't the balls to go for it by tomorrow they may press the button.
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Old 11th Dec 2018, 13:27
  #1207 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Sprogget View Post
However, it would be pleasant if on just one occasion, a Brexit supporter were to come along here & acknowledge that the customs union & single market effectively comprise a border between countries within it & outside and that border is real & there for an actual purpose.

... And furthermore the leave debate not only ignored this reality but lied about it

......the fault lies with us and only, not the Irish, not the remainers, not the EU but those who chose a path without working through the consequences of that choice.
After many months of absence may I drop this pebble into the pond?

I voted to leave the EU. So Sprogget please take pleasure in my acknowledgement that the SM and CU creates a border between those countries inside it and those outside. I do not accept that the leave campaigners ignored the NI/ROI-EU border: I think they just did not think it was such an issue (see below). Did they ignore it or lie? You choose, but only one can be true.

I think that the 'fault' can be shared. Yes HMG have been very inept. But many have offered 'solutions' only to have them rejected by the EU. Leavers have accepted that any land border in Ireland should be 'as frictionless as possible' (note the 'as possible') and 'invisible'.(meaning no infrastructure/checks at the border.

Many are those who do not regard this as a necessarily difficult issue. There is of course an already existing border, with different VAT and excise duties on either side and of course different currencies (not to mention differing laws on gun ownership). VAT and excise dues are collected by the authorities (ie some friction) in both countries without anyone ever being stopped at the border (ie invisible: no border infrastructure). There is a reasonably large amount of smuggling across the border, for instance of fuel in tankers disguised as milk lorries. This is combatted by police and customs officials almost always away from the border itself and away from areas (usually close to the border) where paramilitaries might be presume to be provoked by such activity.

A range of solutions to the border problem have been proposed. The previous head of Swedish customs, Lars Karlsson advocates mobile phone and GPS technology to track vehicles once companies made online customs declarations. The Dutch head of the European Customs Brokers Association says that customs can operate with no technology at all using well tried customs techniques including the EU’s own TRANSIT and TRACE systems. The heads of UK and Irish customs concur with this judgment. As an example, most goods crossing the Swiss borders use such systems to drive through customs without stopping and without any monitoring at the border. Border posts do exist at Swiss borders, but this is for traders who prefer not to use brokers and their automatic systems.

Regards
Batco
(happily trading smoothly across borders)
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Old 11th Dec 2018, 13:28
  #1208 (permalink)  
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
 
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There is no limit, but by convention only motions of confidence by the government or motions of no confidence by the official opposition are considered to trigger a dissolution of parliament. Any others are considered merely a measure of censure.

http://researchbriefings.files.parli...73/SN02873.pdf
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Old 11th Dec 2018, 13:48
  #1209 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by BATCO View Post
Interesting stuff.
I feely admit I went in with my size tens there - Sorry Orac - nonetheless, whilst I fully agree that cross border trade happens freely & while I am also aware that there are mechanisms in place to collect duties, VAT & target smuggling & other criminality it doesn't alter the fact that post Brexit, the NI border becomes the limit of the EU's SM & CU territory.

Working in logistics for twenty five years, I am well aware of how borders between the EU & third countries are not remotely as portrayed by the likes of Redwood or Hannan. The EU will uphold the integrity of goods entering it's free trade zone & Ireland as a member, will comply. Varadker, May & All the others can say they don't want a border until the cows come home & I believe them. It doesn't change anything, except the backstop actually does. That is in effect the EU fracturing one of it's pillars to accommodate a third country.

The fact that it exists as a concept tells us one of two things: Either all 28 members of the EU have wilfully ignored all technological solutions to the border, or they simply don't exist yet in workable form & we've come full circle to Ian Duncan Smith, Jacob Rees - Mogg & all the rest of the gang. FWIW, I think most leave voters as a distinction between lying & ignoring, didn't appreciate the border issue - why would they have? That doesn't grant absolution but to be clear, what gets my goat is the subsequent endless of 'Wasn't me guv, honest'.

Timely reminder that Ireland did not vote to leave the EU, the UK did. It's our problem however you look at it.
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Old 11th Dec 2018, 14:07
  #1210 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Sprogget View Post
ITimely reminder that Ireland did not vote to leave the EU, the UK did. It's our problem however you look at it.
One can equally well argue that it is the EUs problem. It is the EU that thinks a border is necessary.
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Old 11th Dec 2018, 14:10
  #1211 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by occasional View Post
One can equally well argue that it is the EUs problem. It is the EU that thinks a border is necessary.
One can equally well argue that the UK's desired WTO status requires a hard border...
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Old 11th Dec 2018, 14:11
  #1212 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Sprogget View Post
Timely reminder that Ireland did not vote to leave the EU, the UK did. It's our problem however you look at it.
Notwithstanding HMG's engagement with the EU on this issue, I do not think it is our (UK's) problem. We too have a market to manage/protect - you choose. As I understand it plenty of leave campaigners would be quite happy to accept that any goods coming into NI via ROI were 'kosher' and would impose no further friction than now (ie collect the duty, VAT and police illegal product, like handguns - available under licence to people in ROI but not UK). Somehow the EU persuaded HMG to accept responsibility for designing a solution for 'their side' of the border.

Regards
Batco
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Old 11th Dec 2018, 14:14
  #1213 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by occasional View Post
One can equally well argue that it is the EUs problem. It is the EU that thinks a border is necessary.
One could but one would be wrong. The UK has opted to end membership of the single market, the customs union & freedom of movement. In doing so, all regulatory standards & tariff agreements cease on the 29th of March 2019. Therefore, all goods and people entering the European union are subject to checks. At the border. Otherwise, you have a global single market & customs union with a handy entry point in Northern Ireland.

This hasn't been argued over for two years merely for s**ts and giggles you know.
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Old 11th Dec 2018, 14:26
  #1214 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by BATCO View Post
Notwithstanding HMG's engagement with the EU on this issue, I do not think it is our (UK's) problem. We too have a market to manage/protect - you choose. As I understand it plenty of leave campaigners would be quite happy to accept that any goods coming into NI via ROI were 'kosher' and would impose no further friction than now (ie collect the duty, VAT and police illegal product, like handguns - available under licence to people in ROI but not UK). Somehow the EU persuaded HMG to accept responsibility for designing a solution for 'their side' of the border.

Regards
Batco
You're describing the customs partnership I think, which amongst other things relies on some form of tracking technology that doesn't exist, creates difficulties with tariff setting & was in any event rejected by the EU & subsequently dropped by HMG.
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Old 11th Dec 2018, 14:29
  #1215 (permalink)  
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One can equally well argue that the UK's desired WTO status requires a hard border...
No it doesn’t. I previously copied a link to the Irish Times where a professor pointed out the WTO rules which specifically covers situations such as the NI border - and how it could work to the benefit of the Republic......

https://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/t...land-1.3711188
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Old 11th Dec 2018, 14:34
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Originally Posted by Sprogget View Post
......... all goods and people entering the European union are subject to checks. At the border. Otherwise, you have a global single market & customs union with a handy entry point in Northern Ireland.
.
Exactly why so many see it as an EU problem. You might be surprised to know that only about 3% of goods entering are physically checked. And as for people passing between NI and ROI, that is covered by the UK/ROI Common Travel Area.

Regards
Batco
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Old 11th Dec 2018, 14:41
  #1217 (permalink)  
 
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...Under the status quo where mutual recognition & harmonisation applies. Leavers may well see this as the EU's problem, but they won't allow, for example, tasty chlorinated chicken to arrive in Belfast from New Jersey, then wend it's way to Dublin for the reasons outlined above without border checks after Brexit. Again, not wishing to point out the obvious, but we have a government teetering on this very issue you seek to dismiss with a wave of the hand.
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Old 11th Dec 2018, 14:44
  #1218 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Sprogget View Post
......... but they [the EU] won't allow, for example, tasty chlorinated chicken to arrive in Belfast from New Jersey, then wend it's way to Dublin for the reasons outlined above without border checks after Brexit.
IMI. Exactly why so many see it as an EU problem.

Regards
Batco
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Old 11th Dec 2018, 14:48
  #1219 (permalink)  
 
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Okay. we're at risk of a circular argument. The observable reality in literally all media outlets everywhere is wholly different to what you say people see it as, but I'm happy for you to hold that belief.
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Old 11th Dec 2018, 14:54
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Originally Posted by Sprogget View Post
. I'm happy for you to hold that belief.
Very gracious of you.

I do however, agree to back out (shades of that other Hamsterwheel).

Regards
Batco
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