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UK Politics Hamsterwheel MkII

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UK Politics Hamsterwheel MkII

Old 11th Dec 2019, 15:52
  #12161 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by wiggy View Post


Out of interest do you think Brexit will stop the growth in the wealth divide in the U.K. and also result in a change immigration policy that will mean companies in the U.K. will no longer be able to access cheap labour?

Why the heck so many people in the U.K. seem to think they will sharing in the benefits of Brexit along with the likes of Johnson and Rees Mogg is something of a mystery...
To your first question I'm genuinely not sure, but why not suck it and see? What's to lose?

The answer to your second question depends on the outcomes from the first one.
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Old 11th Dec 2019, 15:59
  #12162 (permalink)  
 
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andrewn

  • A growing wealth divide - the rich getting richer and the not so rich just falling further behind
  • An out of control immigration policy designed purely to facilitate access to cheap labour for GlobalCos, with no regard whatsoever for the downstream impacts
Agree with those two, the first has diddly squat to do with the EU, but with the concentration of what people see at outrageous wealth in London and parts of the southeast. The second, it appears from interviewing people first hand, to be a dislike of immigration generally, not specifically the EU. The irony is that when white faced foreigners have been replaced with non white ones from the Commonwealth (which always appears to be the tenor of government rhetoric) people will be even more dischuffed as, to quote some of the things I hear, they "smell" (what??) of people can't understand them, or mostly likely they are a different religion. There is inherent racism within the UK, has been for the last 60+ years right back to the "Windrush generation" built out of a innate distrust of foreigners which given our history as a global power is somewhat odd.

Not sure we'll be going down the American route, especially since we aren't governed by a President, but by MPs elected to parliament. A move in the direction of mid 20th century Europe seems more likely, especially given the state of our non-broadcast media both printed and online. That I might add is not a pleasant future for any of us.
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Old 11th Dec 2019, 16:12
  #12163 (permalink)  
 
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Well thought out post, andrewn.
Just to say that some brexiteers here would feel insulted that you tell them why they voted Leave, whereas they knew "perfectly well" why and what for they voted (for the same reasons, btw ;-)

Originally Posted by andrewn View Post
Eloquent post Torque, but avoids the main drivers for Brexit.
  • A growing wealth divide - the rich getting richer and the not so rich just falling further behind
  • An out of control immigration policy designed purely to facilitate access to cheap labour for GlobalCos, with no regard whatsoever for the downstream impacts
Agree. No relation whatsoever with the EU, though. 100 % UK's doing under your different governments.

  • Ongoing erosion of sovereignty, through existing EU laws and the perceived anti-democratic nature of EU institutions
The former is wrong. Most of the EU laws impacting the UK are the UK's propositions and doing, including extending the EU to East European countries, and supporting Turkey's application.
Concerning the latter, Brits imagine the EU institutions are undemocratic and at the same time assume theirs to be democratic. Quite contrary to reality.

  • We've always been a fringe partner at best, outside of the Eurozone, with no desire for ever increasing political or financial "harmonisation"
Correct. A rather unfortunate and difficult partner.

I still genuinely cant fathom this talk of a brutal and bleak future - all the economic indicators past and present say differently, as does the reality of what's happening on the ground. I'd say there's a less than 10% chance that Brexit is going to lead to any form of financial armageddon.
Nobody has foreseen any catastrophe. Only a 2-8% recession for some decades.
As a comparison the crisis circa 2008 involved a 5% recession.
Of course this doesn't take into account the "financially unmeasurable" consequences on fisheries, agriculture, car or aerospace industries, lack of credibility, NI border inconvenience, and years of uncertainty while negotiating deals.
One upside will be that you'll get what you've been asking for.

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Old 11th Dec 2019, 16:26
  #12164 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by andrewn View Post
To your first question I'm genuinely not sure, but why not suck it and see? What's to lose?

The answer to your second question depends on the outcomes from the first one.
So you are not sure what is causing the wealth divide so why not suck Brexit and see....

As for low cost labour....again, your answer seems to be leave the EU, unlatch the U.K. workforce from the existing protections of EU legislation..and “suck it and see”..what do you honestly think is going to happen..?

I can understand the elite being keen on “sucking and seeing”, but I think more than a few people who think they are in that elite, including some here, are going to be in for a nasty shock once the “Globalcos” really get their teeth into the U.K. workforce.

The only thing I would confidently predict post Brexit is if even more people in the U.K. end up in dire straits the government will continue to blame Brussels....


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Old 11th Dec 2019, 16:40
  #12165 (permalink)  
 
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I still genuinely cant fathom this talk of a brutal and bleak future - all the economic indicators past and present say differently,
Hmmm.....The range of possible outcomes - as at today - goes from the UK cancelling Brexit altogether, perhaps after a referendum, to withdrawing on January 30th followed by 365 days while BoJo finds out that he isn't a negotiator after all, culminating in a "no-deal" exit and trading with the EU (and the rest of the world for at least 7 years) on WTO terms. The economic consequences of each outcome are hugely different, so generalised economic forecasts are simply impossible and if produced should be ignored.

Happily the prospects of a Conservative overall majority are receding fast, so the early exit and 365 days chaos and uncertainty seem unlikely. We'll see.
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Old 11th Dec 2019, 16:44
  #12166 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by andrewn View Post
Eloquent post Torque, but avoids the main drivers for Brexit.
  • A growing wealth divide - the rich getting richer and the not so rich just falling further behind
  • An out of control immigration policy designed purely to facilitate access to cheap labour for GlobalCos, with no regard whatsoever for the downstream impacts
  • Ongoing erosion of sovereignty, through existing EU laws and the perceived anti-democratic nature of EU institutions
  • We've always been a fringe partner at best, outside of the Eurozone, with no desire for ever increasing political or financial "harmonisation"
I still genuinely cant fathom this talk of a brutal and bleak future - all the economic indicators past and present say differently, as does the reality of what's happening on the ground. I'd say there's a less than 10% chance that Brexit is going to lead to any form of financial armageddon.

I agree with your last point, Brexit is unlikely to bring about the systemic change at the top that we need, hence why I firmly believe there is more to come. We tend to broadly speaking follow what America does, remember?
Lets have a look.....

The wealth divide has long been prominent and carefully nurtured by those in the Tory party who see this divide as a form of control.

Out of control immigration..ok, in part, true but equally without immigrants and their contribution to the UK, the country would be struggling to fill many sectors. Don't worry about GlobalCo's however, they are very adept at paying UK workers the minimum they feel they can get away with so labour costs won't cause any concern for the future

Ah, the good old chestnut about sovereignty..... something we've never actually ever lost or are unlikely to lose. But, always good for a tug on the patriotic heart strings.

A fringe partner ?.....the UK has actually been a contributor and recipient of the EU's policies .....what the UK hasn't been able to do, much to the petulance of many, is impose rules and regulations on the EU because, again in the eyes and minds of many, we have some sort of "entitlement " to do so, purely because we are British !.

As for your roseate view of the economic future, let's quietly disregard the impending recession, the insidious effect ( I may have used the word insidious before ) as the former trading agreements will no longer apply and any new ones are how many years away from being formalised ?.....clearly you feel you fall into the small demographic percentile who feel they won't be affected. ........I fall firmly into the considerably larger percentile of the UK population who will.
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Old 11th Dec 2019, 16:47
  #12167 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by wiggy View Post
The only thing I would confidently predict post Brexit is if even more people in the U.K. end up in dire straits the government will continue to blame Brussels....



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Old 11th Dec 2019, 17:35
  #12168 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Avionker View Post


Conservative voter blaming the EU rather than accepting that Boris has buggered it?
Not in the slightest, just the timing of it the night before the polls opens is dubious, why release...sorry, leak it now on the eve of the election.
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Old 11th Dec 2019, 17:40
  #12169 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by NutLoose View Post
Not in the slightest, just the timing of it the night before the polls opens is dubious, why release...sorry, leak it now on the eve of the election.
How long before the polls would you deem it acceptable ? Two days, two weeks, two months ? Or better yet never, if it happens to involve your favourite candidate ?

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Old 11th Dec 2019, 17:42
  #12170 (permalink)  
 
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The most important election decades and we have a choice between an outdated very left-wing but generally well-meaning but unappealing old bloke who the gutter press have treated as though he is Hitler Stalin and the devil himself all in one and a disgusting liar who mislead the Queen refuses to admit even how many kids he has , is easily manipulated by truly evil people and is so stupid he allied himself to a President on the verge of impeachment He is presented by the press as combination of Jesus Christ, Bobby Moore and Henry V.

Perhaps we need to take lesson from Finland?
They have a coalition government of five parties all of which are lead by women , the new PM is 34 and the Minster of finance 28 an we need that kind f sea change to get s away from idiotic left vs right swings which ahs wrecked the UK over the past 50 years to the point there is a fair chance it wont be the UK by the time the next election comes round but just England and Wales
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Old 11th Dec 2019, 17:44
  #12171 (permalink)  
 
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Well tomorrow is another day and perhaps one of the greatest days this nation has had to face in the last 50 years, there may or not be turmoil ahead and while everyone on here will no doubt have different opinions on the result and the future, I wish you all good luck with your aspirations and wishes, may they all come true, sadly that will not be the case, but that is democracy for you.. I for one think we will come out of it all ok .

And to our friends on here from the EU, perhaps you should question your leaders as to why they never took Camerons requests seriously at the time, a little common sense and leeway may have prevented all of this.
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Old 11th Dec 2019, 17:51
  #12172 (permalink)  
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OK, as this is JB as we know with any aircraft incident / accident, sooner or later, the METAR's get a mention .....so we can blame the wx for voter turnout and whom they voted for !

The serious bit is, if Boris gets in, he's got to start delivering on his many election promises...he can't trade on the "I'm the chap who got the UK out of the EU ! " refrain for ever, because, sooner, rather than later after any misplaced euphoria dies down, people are going to start asking questions along the lines of "Do you remember during the campaign, you promised us, (.insert electioneering promise of choice here).....so where is it ? "...

He may . well has, blustered his way through the campaign, but, now would come the reality....which includes being a laughing stock to the rest of the world.
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Old 11th Dec 2019, 18:04
  #12173 (permalink)  
 
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And to our friends on here from the EU, perhaps you should question your leaders as to why they never took Camerons requests seriously at the time, a little common sense and leeway may have prevented all of this
Frankly, unless the EU had basically offered to rip up the EU rule book and essentially allow the UK to be a member of the club in name only the great (?) British press would have labelled it a cave in by Cameron and carried on pursuing their "get the UK out of the EU" line, and the referendum would likely have gone the same way.

The problem is not, and was not the EU it is the UK that simply fails to understand that it's days of power are gone, like a spoiled child it refuses to play with it's friends, unless they use it's ball and play the game to it's rules, and is quite prepared to take it's ball away and go and sulk in a corner if they don't. Hopefully the UK public are going to wake up from this collective fantasy dream and face reality. It is just a shame it hasn't done so already.

I only wish I was domiciled on "our EU friend's" side of the channel, looking in from the outside. Sadly I don't have anything but British blood running through my veins so I, like many others are stuck here. For better or, I suspect, for worse.
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Old 11th Dec 2019, 18:06
  #12174 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by NutLoose View Post
<snip>
And to our friends on here from the EU, perhaps you should question your leaders as to why they never took Camerons requests seriously at the time, a little common sense and leeway may have prevented all of this.
Cameron asking for more cherries you mean...
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Old 11th Dec 2019, 18:19
  #12175 (permalink)  
 
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He may have asked for more cherries but only received a very loud raspberry!
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Old 11th Dec 2019, 18:27
  #12176 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by NutLoose View Post
Not in the slightest, just the timing of it the night before the polls opens is dubious, why release...sorry, leak it now on the eve of the election.
Let us set aside the fact that there is no evidence that the leak is officially sanctioned, unless you know differently that is?

Do you think that Boris’s declaration that he can negotiate a trade deal in under 11 months is anything other than a pipe dream at best, deliberately misleading electioneering at worst?
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Old 11th Dec 2019, 18:32
  #12177 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by NutLoose View Post
And to our friends on here from the EU, perhaps you should question your leaders as to why they never took Camerons requests seriously at the time, a little common sense and leeway may have prevented all of this.
Why should we, and why should they have ?
What 'requests' should have been heeded by the EU - and why ? - to prevent the Tories from needing this stupidly thought-out idea of a referendum to solve their petty domestic puny disputes ?
Does it not suffice that many EU rules have been proposed or supported by the UK (Eastern Europe countries, Turkey application) ? Or didn't the UK obtain enough privileges (£, Schengen, etc.) ?
Is it not overestimating the weight and influence of the UK among the 28 ?

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Old 11th Dec 2019, 18:37
  #12178 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Fly Aiprt View Post
Is it not overestimating the weight and influence of the UK among the 28 ?
I say, you do not seriously think that anyone in the U.K. would do that do you?

Terrible accusation.....
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Old 11th Dec 2019, 18:45
  #12179 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by ATNotts View Post
I only wish I was domiciled on "our EU friend's" side of the channel, looking in from the outside. Sadly I don't have anything but British blood running through my veins so I, like many others are stuck here. For better or, I suspect, for worse.
ATNotts, rest assured that many people in the EU feel sorry for the UK friendly and commonsense citizens.
Although some in your country are opposed to free movement, friends from across the Channel will always be welcome.
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Old 11th Dec 2019, 18:51
  #12180 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Krystal n chips View Post
OK, as this is JB as we know with any aircraft incident / accident, sooner or later, the METAR's get a mention .....so we can blame the wx for voter turnout and whom they voted for !
To extend the metaphor, whatever the outcome it’s going to be a very bumpy ride. Both possible ‘captains’ are likely to cause a crash if they hold to their stated courses.

Whichever side wins the UK will be a much changed place after this election. I fear not for the better.

Good luck everyone.

JAS
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