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UK Politics Hamsterwheel MkII

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UK Politics Hamsterwheel MkII

Old 28th Nov 2019, 08:32
  #11781 (permalink)  
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KelvinD,

YouGov works from an established panel base, spread across genders, ages, political views etc and email surveys. The MRP poll sample is, they state, 150-160 voters per constituency across the country.

https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics...tion-mrp-model

https://today.yougov.com/about/about-the-yougov-panel/
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Old 28th Nov 2019, 08:33
  #11782 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by ORAC View Post
The reason this poll is getting so much attention is that, firstly, it was of over 100,000 people spread over every constituency, second the same poll in 2015 accurately forecast the final vote.

https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics...211-snp-43-ld-

YouGov MRP: Conservatives 359, Labour 211, SNP 43, LD 13, Plaid 4, Green 1

Two caveats on the YouGov survey;

First the methodology, while drawing on a very large pool, still is unproven and recent local polls in the UK show that candidates on the ground have an effect not captured by this poll,

Should I believe what the MRP models tells me?
Not necessarily. Last weekend, The Observer published local poll results from several London constituencies. They showed starkly different results in constituencies with similar demographics and similar MRP projections. “Local factors such as the impact of candidates and the effectiveness of local campaigning make a difference – and that difference might be greater this time than in past elections,” wrote Peter Kellner, a polling expert and former director of YouGov.
https://www.newscientist.com/article...eral-election/

Secondly, there’s been 3.85 million new voter registrations since the election was called. Assuming they’re genuine, with 2.5 million of them under 35, 1.4 million of those under 25, if they vote the way age profiles suggest, then that’s a boost for pro-remain parties. Albeit, that there is expected to be a large degree of duplication within the new registrations.
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/u...-a9219391.html

JAS
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Old 28th Nov 2019, 08:38
  #11783 (permalink)  
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Accepted, a poll is a snapshot, not a forecast. However, as I said, the interest is because the same survey, 12 days before the last election, was accurate to with a couple of seats.
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Old 28th Nov 2019, 08:50
  #11784 (permalink)  
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ATNotts, as a lighter relief what did you mean by:

fathomlessly-still-on-air Andrew Niel
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Old 28th Nov 2019, 09:14
  #11785 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Pontius Navigator View Post
ATNotts, as a lighter relief what did you mean by:

fathomlessly-still-on-air Andrew Niel
I don't think I ever wrote that!! Never watch his interviews, they are always on at the wrong times for me, so couldn't comment on him or his skills as an interviewer.
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Old 28th Nov 2019, 09:18
  #11786 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by ORAC View Post
KelvinD,

YouGov works from an established panel base, spread across genders, ages, political views etc and email surveys. The MRP poll sample is, they state, 150-160 voters per constituency across the country.

https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics...tion-mrp-model

https://today.yougov.com/about/about-the-yougov-panel/
Panel based polls aren't the same as randomly selected people being interviewed in the street. These people on panels get incentives for taking part (only learnt that yesterday) and of course tend to be the sorts of people who are opinionated in the first place - many of us on this forum should perhaps be on panels - perhaps some are!

All that said the sample size is impressive, and certainly this methodology did produce a fairly accurate forecast in 2017. Beginners luck? We'll see on 13th December.
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Old 28th Nov 2019, 09:48
  #11787 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Pontius Navigator View Post
ATNotts, as a lighter relief what did you mean by:

fathomlessly-still-on-air Andrew Niel
TorqueTalk was the source of that quote PN.
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Old 28th Nov 2019, 10:18
  #11788 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by ATNotts View Post
I don't think I ever wrote that!! Never watch his interviews, they are always on at the wrong times for me, so couldn't comment on him or his skills as an interviewer.
Apologies, it was TorqueTalk addressing you and I misread it as from you.
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Old 28th Nov 2019, 10:19
  #11789 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by Avionker View Post

TorqueTalk was the source of that quote PN.
Thank you, hope TT picks up.
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Old 28th Nov 2019, 11:01
  #11790 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Pontius Navigator View Post
Apologies, it was TorqueTalk addressing you and I misread it as from you.
hands up. I was indirectly expressing my dislike of Andrew Niel. I really don’t understand what people see in him. He is a pompous windbag who pretends to be some kind or objective arbiter in supposedly putting interviewees feet to the fire. In fact, he is very much establishment and Fleet Street furniture. Private Eye’s running gag of using readers’ requests to reprint the awful pic of him (flacid overweight middle aged man in underwear) and his then girlfriend (young Asian babe) was always good for a laugh. Hislop took the piiss out of him for years using that simple device.

Don’t get me going on Matthew Parris 😉
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Old 28th Nov 2019, 11:19
  #11791 (permalink)  
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No ! more bad news from the dastardly BBC !.......

Who would have thunked this to be the case !

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2019-50585818
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Old 28th Nov 2019, 13:29
  #11792 (permalink)  
 
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POSTAL VOTES
1) Mother first, moved from home to a care home over the county border.
I cancelled her home entry in the Electeral Roll, registered her on the care home area ER.
Postal vote arrives in the care home, AND her home!
Ring up, much shuffling of paper, 'error' made on home ER.

2) Junior no.2.
Lives here 6 months of the year, 6 months at uni.
Postal vote registered at home, which arrived a few days ago.
Tells us last night he will vote using the card he received at his rented house!
No, he didn't register there...

How many double votes are used I wonder...



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Old 28th Nov 2019, 13:51
  #11793 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by ORAC View Post
KelvinD,

Blame PPRuNe. When I paste it now comes up that size. I used to have a button which allowed me to change font size - no longer there on my iPad browser.

Labour announcement today that they will plant 2 billion trees in next 20 years. If you do the sums that means a minimum of 300,000 a day. Alllwing for establishing the programme, contracts etc, more likely 500,000 a day to allow for planting seasons etc.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics...-next-20-years
The figure will be even worse than that, to start planting your 500,000 trees a day, you need 500,000 saplings per day and they do not grow on trees, nor can you shake them out of the magic money tree... they need to be grown first and you probably will need greenhouses capable of bringing them on in such large numbers.... And then were are you going to plant them all, sneak them into peoples gardens at night? surely large scale forestation will require change of use etc if on farmland.

It's the old Labour song again.... Anything you can do I can do better.. I can do anything better than you!
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Old 28th Nov 2019, 13:52
  #11794 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Nige321 View Post
POSTAL VOTES

How many double votes are used I wonder...
Loads probably, but they don't all vote for one party.

It will even itself out.
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Old 28th Nov 2019, 13:55
  #11795 (permalink)  
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TT, can't disagree with that summary though pompous wind bag is perhaps necessary when dealing with pompous self regarding politicians. Regardless of the questions he asked JC he invariably got 'let me explain ' something entirely different.

Good move BJ and JC both refusing interviews again.

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Old 28th Nov 2019, 14:19
  #11796 (permalink)  
 
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Devil

Should you be contemplating voting for the "Egregious Ass" called Corbyn or any of his cronies at the forthcoming General Election be advised that a leather-winged demon of the night will tear itself, shrieking blood and fury, from the endless caverns of the nether world, hurling itself into the darkness with a thirst for blood on its slavering fangs and search the very threads of time for the throbbing of your heartbeat.

Just thought you should know. 😎
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Old 28th Nov 2019, 14:21
  #11797 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Nige321 View Post
POSTAL VOTES

How many double votes are used I wonder...
Hopefully less than 1.89 %
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Old 28th Nov 2019, 15:06
  #11798 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by On the beach View Post
Should you be contemplating voting for the "Egregious Ass" called Corbyn or any of his cronies at the forthcoming General Election be advised that a leather-winged demon of the night will tear itself, shrieking blood and fury, from the endless caverns of the nether world, hurling itself into the darkness with a thirst for blood on its slavering fangs and search the very threads of time for the throbbing of your heartbeat.

Just thought you should know. 😎
Wrong ! Charon is a good Socialist boatman so no demons get across the Styx without his approval.......Comrade !

This may appease you in lieu......

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Old 28th Nov 2019, 15:14
  #11799 (permalink)  
 
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There is no way to run the clocks backwards and just revoke Article 50 and do as if nothing had happened. Confidence is lost for generations.
There is no way to get any political or economical profit from any post-Brexit deal.
It is not even sure that Brexit will ever "get done"...
What's sure is, the UK will stay in pre-Brexit limbo for months and months on, and by this date next year, the cliff-edge....?

And while the scuttled ship is sinking, people argue they won't board this or that lifeboat because "this or that officer is an Egregious Ass", or a commie or what not.
Some even call for a "Clean sinking"...

The lone liner sunk by an iceberg could only be British...

Last edited by Fly Aiprt; 28th Nov 2019 at 15:33.
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Old 28th Nov 2019, 15:27
  #11800 (permalink)  
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Tomorrow's headlines ..

Excess.....Victory for Express Crusade ! Migrants flee Brit shores !

Mail.....Mail Campaign exclusive ! Millions more UK jobs now migrants sent packing !

Sun.....Migrunts get the boot !

And many self satisfied smirks of approval and clapping of hands by those contributors whose dreams are now being fulfilled........well they got the message eh chaps !..good old Blighty .....showing them we mean business when we said we would be "taking back control "..." what do you mean I'll have to wash my own car !..or pick my own crops ! "

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-50586338
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