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UK Politics Hamsterwheel MkII

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UK Politics Hamsterwheel MkII

Old 2nd Sep 2019, 19:41
  #9801 (permalink)  
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
 
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Robert Peston in The Spectator:

https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2019/0...arly-election/

Boris Johnson’s message to MPs is that if they vote tomorrow for another delay, then Wednesday there will be vote on general election. MPs gone, no 14 days, no legislation on extension. Election on 14 October. Government source: ‘who does country want to sort it out on 18 Oct at EU?’

UPDATE, 6.48pm: To confirm, a minister tells me Cabinet approved that tomorrow’s vote on backbenchers taking control of order paper will be seen as confidence vote. So Cabinet agreed that there will be vote on Wednesday to hold a general election on 14 October if Boris Johnson is defeated, just 24 hours away.

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Old 2nd Sep 2019, 19:47
  #9802 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Effluent Man View Post
That's because Brexit have been out of the public eye since the Euro's. In an election campaign Nige will perform well, as he always does and the votes will come back. Boris needs to offer Nige a place in his cabinet.
I was thinking the same thing actually, if BoJo does call a GE and "wins" but with no overall majority I'd expect he'll be hoping the Brexit party vote DOES hold up and they return a handful of MP's. That way he could go into partnership with them and jettison the toxic DUP....
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Old 2nd Sep 2019, 19:58
  #9803 (permalink)  
 
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Brexit won't get any seats because the 15% or so of the vote they get will be evenly spread across the country. On the other hand the LD's 21% will gain a lot of seats and they are almost exclusively Tory held. Add to that the demise of Ruth Davidson in Scotland and potentially a score or more Tory MP's booted out and standing as Independents and they could lies many seats. Not saying that will happen, but it could.
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Old 2nd Sep 2019, 20:07
  #9804 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Effluent Man View Post
Brexit won't get any seats because the 15% or so of the vote they get will be evenly spread across the country. On the other hand the LD's 21% will gain a lot of seats and they are almost exclusively Tory held. Add to that the demise of Ruth Davidson in Scotland and potentially a score or more Tory MP's booted out and standing as Independents and they could lies many seats. Not saying that will happen, but it could.
Yes, I thought that about the TBP vote, shortly after I posted - the good ole FPTP! I also agree the polling is probably underestimating the LD seats as their vote tends historically to be quite concentrated. So much will depend on turnout and how solid the Labour vote is. I'm think I'm almost agreeing with your analysis a few posts back now!

Any decision to go to the country is fraught with difficulty and uncertainty, no slam dunks on offer here!
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Old 2nd Sep 2019, 20:16
  #9805 (permalink)  
 
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As the polls stand it's quite simply a lottery. I think that I would rule out a Labour or LD outright win and almost certainly a Tory one unless they can get Nige onside. The Tory rebels represent a big problem. Rory Stewart, Philip Hammond, Antoinette Sandbach, and Philip Lee to name but four all had 60% of the vote in 2017. I wouldn't get against them surviving as Independents even assuming that the opposition don't go easy on them. I have voted Labour all my life but if one of the Tory rebels represented my constituency then I would support them.
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Old 2nd Sep 2019, 20:24
  #9806 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Effluent Man View Post
As the polls stand it's quite simply a lottery. I think that I would rule out a Labour or LD outright win and almost certainly a Tory one unless they can get Nige onside. The Tory rebels represent a big problem. Rory Stewart, Philip Hammond, Antoinette Sandbach, and Philip Lee to name but four all had 60% of the vote in 2017. I wouldn't get against them surviving as Independents even assuming that the opposition don't go easy on them. I have voted Labour all my life but if one of the Tory rebels represented my constituency then I would support them.
ha,ha, one of those Tory rebels does represent my constituency and certainly wont be getting my vote, irrespective of whether as Tory or Indy!
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Old 2nd Sep 2019, 20:25
  #9807 (permalink)  
 
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I personally think those MPs where there is a majority in their seats to leave, may find their future political life curtailed if we have an election. I also agree with the move, it puts any MP deciding to vote against party policy out in the cold and out of Parliament come September.

Agree re what was said regards the Brexit party, however that may depend on say the Conservatives possibly coming to an agreement not to stand in those areas where they are a minority but there was a majority to leave and where the sitting MP from whatever party has voted remain. That may open up seats to the Brexit party who will support the efforts to leave.

Whether you like BJ or not, he is sticking to his guns and is showing he is a savvy politician, the sweetners for policing, Education and the NHS he has already announced since taking power have already taken some of the wind out of that windbag Corbyns sails and have in effect reduced Labours possible electioneering arsenal of planned reforms they could have used in the forth coming election.

I for one think BJ is starting to show he is not the fool so many wrote him off to be.
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Old 2nd Sep 2019, 20:42
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Originally Posted by NutLoose View Post


Whether you like BJ or not, he is sticking to his guns and is showing he is a savvy politician, the sweetners for policing, Education and the NHS he has already announced since taking power have already taken some of the wind out of that windbag Corbyns sails and have in effect reduced Labours possible electioneering arsenal of planned reforms they could have used in the forth coming election.

I for one think BJ is starting to show he is not the fool so many wrote him off to be.
That would be increasing policing back to 'almost' what it was before the Tories cut the numbers, giving the NHS the funding that it should have had in the first place, and everyone has been crying out for, and putting right the massive Tory cockup over regional education funding that has even got the blue counties annoyed.
The magic money tree must have bloomed early this year.

Well I don't know about you but I didn't get off the boat yesterday and I can spot a charlatan when I see one.
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Old 2nd Sep 2019, 20:54
  #9809 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by TURIN View Post
That would be increasing policing back to 'almost' what it was before the Tories cut the numbers, giving the NHS the funding that it should have had in the first place, and everyone has been crying out for, and putting right the massive Tory cockup over regional education funding that has even got the blue counties annoyed.
The magic money tree must have bloomed early this year.

Well I don't know about you but I didn't get off the boat yesterday and I can spot a charlatan when I see one.
Yes, but how many of those issues really resonate with enough of the electorate? And even the ones that do, whose to say the Tories will be held solely accountable for them? As a point of interest I wont be voting Tory either, but not because of their Brexit stance, or any of the issues you call out. My beef with them is their insistence on tearing up our countryside in pursuit of building 300k additional houses per annum, as well as potentially HS2.

Unfortunately for me there's really no natural home for a pro-Brexit, anti-globalist, eco-warrior!!
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Old 2nd Sep 2019, 21:17
  #9810 (permalink)  
 
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Nigel said earlier he would scrap HS2;
https://www.expressandstar.com/news/...-it-to-win-it/
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Old 2nd Sep 2019, 21:26
  #9811 (permalink)  
 
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If there is a GE called then I will face a bit of a dilemma. I vowed that, after making one of the biggest voting errors of my life in 1979, I would NEVER, EVER, vote Conservative again. If there is a GE called shortly, then, although the LibDems have some policies that are closest to those I'd support, I simply cannot vote for a party that is intent on overturning the will of the people. Voting Labour is unthinkable, apart from being a wasted vote here, anyway. That means I will probably have to swallow my pride and vote Conservative, solely because, although I loathe BJ, he is really the least worst choice.
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Old 2nd Sep 2019, 21:31
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Originally Posted by VP959 View Post
If there is a GE called then I will face a bit of a dilemma. I vowed that, after making one of the biggest voting errors of my life in 1979, I would NEVER, EVER, vote Conservative again. If there is a GE called shortly, then, although the LibDems have some policies that are closest to those I'd support, I simply cannot vote for a party that is intent on overturning the will of the people. Voting Labour is unthinkable, apart from being a wasted vote here, anyway. That means I will probably have to swallow my pride and vote Conservative, solely because, although I loathe BJ, he is really the least worst choice.
You are not required to vote. If you really don’t like any of them, why vote for any of them?
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Old 2nd Sep 2019, 21:57
  #9813 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Torquetalk View Post


You are not required to vote. If you really don’t like any of them, why vote for any of them?
Principally because I feel very strongly that everyone should vote. I'd like to see a system like they have elsewhere (Australia?) where voting is mandatory. One problem with not voting is that, if enough people choose not to vote, our government will be chosen only by those who hold extreme views, and I don't think extreme views are the way to best choose those who govern us.
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Old 2nd Sep 2019, 22:15
  #9814 (permalink)  
 
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I too have had the vote conundrum, prior to the May debacle my vote would have gone to Brexit, however I have always been a staunch Conservative voter and my MP Andrew Bridgen has from the start been a staunch Brexiteer and that is where my dilemma came in with May, I would have rather voted against my party to get shot of her' but now I feel confident I can support my MP.
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Old 2nd Sep 2019, 22:21
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Originally Posted by TURIN View Post
That would be increasing policing back to 'almost' what it was before the Tories cut the numbers, giving the NHS the funding that it should have had in the first place, and everyone has been crying out for, and putting right the massive Tory cockup over regional education funding that has even got the blue counties annoyed.
The magic money tree must have bloomed early this year.

Well I don't know about you but I didn't get off the boat yesterday and I can spot a charlatan when I see one.
Yes I realise that, but what I was getting across was he is addressing it and bolstering public opinion by addressing their concerns and at the same time taking the wind out of Labours possible campaign points.
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Old 2nd Sep 2019, 22:30
  #9816 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by VP959 View Post
Principally because I feel very strongly that everyone should vote. I'd like to see a system like they have elsewhere (Australia?) where voting is mandatory. One problem with not voting is that, if enough people choose not to vote, our government will be chosen only by those who hold extreme views, and I don't think extreme views are the way to best choose those who govern us.
That would only work for me if there was a 'none of the above' option on the ballot form. Why should I be forced by law to vote for a candidate or party that I do not believe is fit to run the country?


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Old 2nd Sep 2019, 22:30
  #9817 (permalink)  
 
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if you don't vote then you shouldn't have a say on any political debates etc, one would love to know how many of those bitching about leaving on TV etc actually voted on the referendum. I bet quite a few didn't then objected to the result and are now complaining.
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Old 2nd Sep 2019, 22:31
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Originally Posted by VP959 View Post
Principally because I feel very strongly that everyone should vote. I'd like to see a system like they have elsewhere (Australia?) where voting is mandatory. One problem with not voting is that, if enough people choose not to vote, our government will be chosen only by those who hold extreme views, and I don't think extreme views are the way to best choose those who govern us.
Much as I think the right to vote for all citizens is a key principal, I think the right not to vote just as important. It can act as a vote of no confidence and a measure of engagement (or otherwise) amongst the electorate. Mandatory voting would otherwise give a false impression of confidence in parties and politics for which there was no real basis.

Bicycle helmets are also mandatory in at least one Australian state. Maybe they like things being mandatory. The Netherlands takes a more relaxed view on the matter. And more people ride bikes.
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Old 2nd Sep 2019, 22:37
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Originally Posted by NutLoose View Post
if you don't vote then you shouldn't have a say on any political debates etc, one would love to know how many of these bitching about leaving on TV etc actually voted on the referendum. I bet quite a few didn't then objected to the result and are now complaining.
But I don't have any say on "any political debates etc."
The ballot box is the only way I have that, apart from arguing on pointless debates like this one which has no influence whatever.

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Old 2nd Sep 2019, 22:40
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Well the plan the 'strategy' is now quite clear. As soon as BJ opened his mouth and started making his promises and repeating his lies outside Number 10. You could see it was an election speech. No surprise that. It was strictly aimed at the electorate.

Dominic Cummins is doing a great job keeping him on message and rest of the cabinet. Someone earlier suggested BJ has turned out to be a 'savvy politician'. That's hilarious. I don't know if there's a single savvy member of the cabinet. Cummings on the other hand is giving us all a masterclass in spin. He's just on the cusp of delivering a no deal Brexit, something no one voted for and most people don't want.

That's the endgame but only if they win the election and that's a big if. But it'll be a slick campaign, lots of simplistic slogans. Emphasis on BJs personality and Corbyn's lack thereof.

Interesting few weeks ahead.

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