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UK Politics Hamsterwheel MkII

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UK Politics Hamsterwheel MkII

Old 2nd Sep 2019, 13:31
  #9781 (permalink)  
 
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As Harold Wilson observed a week is a long time in politics. Anything could happen here and my guess is that Farage won't just defer to Boris. His line is that Brexit is going to be sold out and that could well be the case if Boris were to get a majority big enough to ditch the ERG. A May style deal might look quite attractive then.
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Old 2nd Sep 2019, 13:37
  #9782 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by ORAC View Post
jC gave Speech this morning, and interview with Sky, stating if offered the chance of an election he would take it, regardless of circumstances.
It would be brilliant for him.

He'd get the no-deal crash-out he so desperately wants, and he would also be able to blame it on someone else. Your pick from:

"It's the Tories' fault."
"I kept telling you we should have had a GE sooner."

or, most likely:

"A big boy did it and ran away."

(I was supposed to be printing leaflets at the weekend, but they got canned because of the retrospective nature of election expenses these days - money you spend before the election was called can count against election expenses.)
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Old 2nd Sep 2019, 14:00
  #9783 (permalink)  
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BBC: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-49549960

Brexit: No 10 'considering election' amid no-deal battle with MPs

The BBC understands "live discussions" are going on in No 10 about asking Parliament to approve a snap poll.

Political editor Laura Kuenssberg said it could happen as soon as Wednesday but no final decision had been taken......

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Old 2nd Sep 2019, 14:07
  #9784 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by ORAC View Post
BBC: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-49549960

Brexit: No 10 'considering election' amid no-deal battle with MPs

The BBC understands "live discussions" are going on in No 10 about asking Parliament to approve a snap poll.

Political editor Laura Kuenssberg said it could happen as soon as Wednesday but no final decision had been taken......



"live discussions" = Cummings issues instructions for next stage of his plan.
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Old 2nd Sep 2019, 16:07
  #9785 (permalink)  
 
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If Hammond votes against and then there is an election, one wonders if they even need to deselect him, bearing in mind the majority of his constituents voted to leave. From Chancellor of the Exchequer to possibly signing on, all in a couple of weeks is a pretty impressive downward turn in ones career.
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Old 2nd Sep 2019, 16:10
  #9786 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Gertrude the Wombat View Post
It would be brilliant for him.

He'd get the no-deal crash-out he so desperately wants, and he would also be able to blame it on someone else. Your pick from:

"It's the Tories' fault."
"I kept telling you we should have had a GE sooner."

or, most likely:

"A big boy did it and ran away."

(I was supposed to be printing leaflets at the weekend, but they got canned because of the retrospective nature of election expenses these days - money you spend before the election was called can count against election expenses.)
It appears we are talking of an Election prior to leaving.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-49552403

"Boris Johnson knows that if no-deal Brexit stands on its own as a proposition, it might well fail," he said."But if he mixes up the Brexit question with the Corbyn question in a general election, he could succeed, despite a majority being against a no-deal Brexit, because some may fear a Corbyn premiership more."He [Mr Corbyn] should see an election before Brexit is decided, for the elephant trap it is."
Tony BLiars view.
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Old 2nd Sep 2019, 16:40
  #9787 (permalink)  
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Theoretically, if a vote for dissolution takes place this week, and election could take place as early as 17th October.

However.......

Arranging a dissolution takes a few days, with formal proclamations in both Houses, a washing up period for essential orders to ensure continuity of government funding etc, so 24th Oct is more likely.

So, all ready for a new government to stop Brexit before the 31st then? (Assuming Boris doesn’t win a majority)

Not so fast.

If an election takes place place on the 24th and there is no majority, the incumbent remains PM until they can advise ER on a replacement - after the election on 7th June 2015, Tony Blair remained in post and did not resign as PM until 28th June.

Assuming that the election does not return a Conservative majority, the most probable result is no overall majority and BJ remaining in post until after 31st Oct.

Even assuming an alternate MP is elected with a majority, it will have to pass legislation to request an extension or revoke A50. MPs are not sworn in and a Speaker appointed till the following Tuesday after an election, then there are 2 days of formal set speeches and debates. At the very earliest, such legislation would only be able to be debated on Thursday 31st October - and would require Royal Assent before being law and replacing the current Act.

If there is an election, the chances of Brexit being stopped are now invisibly small.
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Old 2nd Sep 2019, 16:59
  #9788 (permalink)  
 
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WHAT???

The 2015 GE was on 7th May 2015...the Conservatives won a majority, and David Cameron remained in office until he resigned on 13 July 2016, to make way for Theresa May...

Blair was long gone by then!

What Election and PM are you referring to?
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Old 2nd Sep 2019, 17:01
  #9789 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by ORAC View Post
If an election takes place place on the 24th and there is no majority, the incumbent remains PM until they can advise ER on a replacement - after the election on 7th June 2015, Tony Blair remained in post and did not resign as PM until 28th June.
That would have been Gordon Brown in 2010....

Don’t forget that the 3 week delay in Brown resigning was due to the discussions the Liberals were having with Labour and the Tories (mostly the latter) over the terms of a coalition. In this case assuming the DUP/Tories/Brexit Party couldn’t form a majority between them I would guess the Libs/Labour/SNP etc would agree a coalition deal in record time, so Boris would be obliged to visit the Palace for his P45 as soon as that was done.

I suspect that by the end of the week it will be fairly clear whether stopping Brexit has any remaining chance, apart from Boris himself deciding maybe Oct 31st isn’t such a good idea after all.

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Old 2nd Sep 2019, 17:06
  #9790 (permalink)  
 
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...and Brown didnt hang on for 3 weeks after the Election, it was 5 days....
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Old 2nd Sep 2019, 17:41
  #9791 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by ORAC View Post
it will have to pass legislation to ... revoke A50
Possibly not. The reason that the courts decided legislation was necessary to invoke A50 was that this involved taking peoples' rights away.

Revoking it doesn't, so may not need any more than a signature on the letter that the civil service has had ready for some time now.
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Old 2nd Sep 2019, 17:45
  #9792 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Gertrude the Wombat View Post
Possibly not. The reason that the courts decided legislation was necessary to invoke A50 was that this involved taking peoples' rights away.

Revoking it doesn't, so may not need any more than a signature on the letter that the civil service has had ready for some time now.
Interesting legal point, perhaps. Given that there was a vote where the majority voted to leave the EU, could it not be argued that revoking the Article 50 notice was taking away the democratic rights of the majority?
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Old 2nd Sep 2019, 17:54
  #9793 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by VP959 View Post
Interesting legal point, perhaps. Given that there was a vote where the majority voted to leave the EU, could it not be argued that revoking the Article 50 notice was taking away the democratic rights of the majority?
Not on that point, no, because it was quite clear in the referendum legislation that the referendum was only advisory, so nobody had any "right" for their vote to be implemented, because the Act explicitly and deliberately didn't create any such right.
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Old 2nd Sep 2019, 17:59
  #9794 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Gertrude the Wombat View Post
Not on that point, no, because it was quite clear in the referendum legislation that the referendum was only advisory, so nobody had any "right" for their vote to be implemented, because the Act explicitly and deliberately didn't create any such right.
However, since that vote there has been an acceptance by the government that the wishes of the people must be acted upon, and they have indeed acted, by issuing the Article 50 notice to the EU. Does this not change the legal position, such that there is now an obligation on the government to leave, and hence the electorate have acquired a legal right to expect that the government will carry through on the action they have started?
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Old 2nd Sep 2019, 18:33
  #9795 (permalink)  
 
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Given the apparent direction of travel of Johnson and his minder, i.e. any disagreement with the edicts of the Master Race makes you an untermensch, they could go the whole hog and initiate an anslusch into Eire! Back Stop problem sorted Ahh ! just remembered - our True Blue Leaders have been 'managing' the military for some years so maybe a bit short on the wherewithal Never mind, just make promises of long term advantage to the traditional British greed ethic and we'll be home and dry) . Maybe not the best plan but at least it's something new, so why not?
Sorry? What's that? Oh, yes, I DO remember!
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Old 2nd Sep 2019, 18:35
  #9796 (permalink)  
 
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Nige now threatening a candidate in every seat if Bozza won't commit to NoDeal. Could young Pfeffel do that without losing a great deal of centre ground support?
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Old 2nd Sep 2019, 19:24
  #9797 (permalink)  
 
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From the outisde, looking in ...

Listening to PM Johnson's address from Downing Street, I can't help but feel all the commentators are missing an "out" that is available to the PM even if the "rebel" bill passes Parliament; there is precedent for a UK monarch, on the advice of their ministers, to delay or refuse royal ascent to a bill. It hasn't been used since the 1700's, but in these strange times, anything is a potential route to the goal of the true brexiteers,

The option for a General Election, would still require two thirds of MP's to vote to dissovle parlement, how likely is that majority? If it did happen, how likely is a Tory majority? Could they get an overall majority or would they need the Brexit party to either stand aside or if not, at the very least replace the DUP in the chamber to support Brexit motions and other government business. If the DUP are jettisoned, do moderate brexiteers go back to the original Withdrawl Agreement, the one the DUP vetoed, that holds just Northern Ireland in the EU customs area and allows the rest of the UK to sail away?

JAS.
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Old 2nd Sep 2019, 19:24
  #9798 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Effluent Man View Post
Nige now threatening a candidate in every seat if Bozza won't commit to NoDeal. Could young Pfeffel do that without losing a great deal of centre ground support?
What centre ground support? The Tory vote collapsed almost into single figures under the last days of TM. Since BoJo took the helm he's been unequivocal in his intent to leave on 31st Oct, deal or no deal, and Tory support appears to be back in the mid-30's. Nige is merely providing a (very effective) backstop to ensure we do actually leave, as advertised.
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Old 2nd Sep 2019, 19:33
  #9799 (permalink)  
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Grauniad:

Johnson plans 14 October general election, according to government source

Jessica Elgot

The prime minister will ask MPs to back a general election for 14 October should a cross-party rebel alliance vote to take control of parliament tomorrow, according to a government source.

Boris Johnson is set to treat a vote by opposition MPs to take control of the legislative agenda as an effective confidence vote. A government motion is set to be tabled by the government for a snap general election if rebels are successful in passing a motion to take control of the order paper.

There would then be a vote on Wednesday on a new general election under the Fixed-Term Parliaments Act, which requires a two-thirds majority.

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Old 2nd Sep 2019, 19:37
  #9800 (permalink)  
 
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That's because Brexit have been out of the public eye since the Euro's. In an election campaign Nige will perform well, as he always does and the votes will come back. Boris needs to offer Nige a place in his cabinet.
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