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UK Politics Hamsterwheel MkII

Old 24th Aug 2019, 16:54
  #9581 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Gertrude the Wombat View Post
Well, that's my "get one of your mates to hand it in on the right date" option really. What councillors can't do is put in a letter saying "I resign with effect from ...".

(The main reason for wanting to get the timing right is to save money by making sure the by-election happens on a day when there is already going to be some other election. Get it wrong and the voters will quite reasonably get pissed off with having to vote in, and pay for, two elections just a few weeks apart.)
This happened to David Alton in 1979, an MP for 1 week, elected day after no confidence motion but still made his maiden speach.

His vote decline by 244 between By election and General election but he was still easily elected in Liverpool Edge Hill.
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Old 24th Aug 2019, 17:09
  #9582 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by ORAC View Post
https://www.thenational.scot/news/17...election-poll/

Tories take 14-point lead over Labour in General Election poll

THE Conservative Party has seen big boost in support since Boris Johnson became Prime Minister, according to a new online poll from Kantar.

The media company found now 42% of UK voters would now back the Tories compared to 25% back in May. Analysis has suggested the party's tough new stance on Brexit and talk of a No-Deal has boosted its support.

Meanwhile, Kantar's poll showed 28% for Labour, down from 34% in May, unchanged 15% support for the LibDems and a 10% drop in backing for the Brexit Party taking them down to 5%. The poll also put the SNP at 5%, again unchanged since its previous research.

Craig Watkins, UK CEO of Kantar Public, told Reuters there had been a "significant shift". “We have a new Conservative Prime Minister who has taken a very clear stance on handling the Brexit negotiation and Brexit itself and that messaging seems to be cutting through to the public,” he said
Putting aside the valid points about pollster accuracy, this does have an element of truth to it, in my opinion.

We've been crying out for leadership on this Brexit journey and the longer it drags on the more the average Joe just wants it bought to a conclusion. Boris appears, on the face of it, to be providing a semblance of the leadership that was lacking from Theresa May.

The Opposition parties are plainly nowhere, both flatlining as their limited appeal means only their base props them up. Labour is stuck around the 30% mark, nowhere near enough for an overall majority, and the LibDems are reaping the rewards of their decision to be the party of Remain, and once that ship sails they'll be lucky to get into double digits I suspect.

For me personally Boris hasn't done anywhere enough to guarantee my vote, but if he cancels HS2 that would certainly be a step in the right direction....
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Old 25th Aug 2019, 03:39
  #9583 (permalink)  
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The Times:

Boris Johnson will today put Britain on an election footing by warning Brussels that he will slash more than £30bn from the EU divorce bill in the event of a no-deal Brexit.

His tough stance, intended to win over Brexit Party supporters, comes as the prime minister’s team are working on a populist emergency budget in October, in which fuel duty will be cut for the first time in eight years, paving the way for a general election the same month.....

Sir Lynton Crosby, Johnson’s longstanding elections guru, has told friends the balance of probability leans towards an election in mid to late October. That points to October 17, the day of the European Council meeting......

One of Crosby’s former aides, Isaac Levido, has been installed as the boss at Conservative campaign headquarters (CCHQ) and is recruiting staff for the election war room........

Under the terms of the Fixed-term Parliaments Act, Johnson needs the support of two-thirds of MPs to call an election. But his aides have been advised that they could pass a one-line bill with a simple majority that would say: “Notwithstanding the Fixed-term Parliaments Act, we will hold a general election on X date.”.......

Insiders say Johnson’s team might even be prepared to “throw” a vote of no confidence in the House of Commons — that is, allow it to succeed — if MPs who want to stop a no-deal try to bring down his government......
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Old 25th Aug 2019, 03:51
  #9584 (permalink)  
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https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/s...bour-vr285lz0q

Suspended activists use fringe union to infiltrate Labour

A woman arrested as a terrorist suspect, and a 9/11 conspiracy theorist are among activists using a fringe trade union to infiltrate the Labour Party and campaign for the deselection of moderate MPs, it can be revealed.

Unite Community was founded to represent the jobless by Len McCluskey, general secretary of Unite and a powerful Corbyn ally, in 2012. For 50p a week, members can access career advice, interview coaching and help applying for benefits. However, a Sunday Times investigation has found that many of Unite Community’s leading activists have been suspended as Labour members over alleged racism and bullying.

Leaked emails also reveal union officials have privately admitted that members do not need to be unemployed to join or become delegates on local Labour parties, with one writing: “It’s ok to join if your [sic] working — but obviously it would be better to try to find people that are not.”

The investigation findings appear to support claims that the union acts as a “backdoor” for entryists seeking to influence Labour.

According to party rules, Unite Community can send members to sit on the governing body of any constituency party where it has a local presence. By joining the union, Labour Party members who are suspended or expelled can influence “trigger ballots”, the controversial process by which a sitting MP is removed.........

It can be revealed that Unite Community representatives include:

■ Laura Stuart, a Muslim convert arrested after sharing material by an alleged al-Qaeda recruiter in 2015, and suspended from Labour in 2017 over posts referring to the “Holocaust industry” and Jews as a “bunch of crooks”; she is now secretary of Unite Community Barnet, which covers three constituencies

■ Phil Vasili, an amateur historian who has posted dozens of times saying the CIA and Mossad “masterminded” 9/11; he is chairman of Unite Community Camden and its delegate on Holborn and St Pancras Labour Party, whose MP, Keir Starmer, he has called a “right wing coup loser” and “neoliberal Blairite”

■ Glyn Secker, a friend of Corbyn’s who issued a controversial “warning to the Jewish leadership” at a pro-Palestine demo earlier this year, saying it was “part of the problem”; he was briefly suspended from Labour in 2018 and is a Unite Community delegate in Dulwich and West Norwood Labour Party.

According to a source at party headquarters, Unite Community has ramped up its activity and become a “f****** nightmare” for MPs this year.

Several branches have worked with Momentum, the pro-Corbyn campaign group, to change their local Labour parties from a delegate system to a one member, one vote system, a move thought to make deselection easier......

“Some of these people are amateurs. They turn up randomly having never expressed an interest in Labour. Many are known locally to have jobs. But the point is when trigger ballots come, they’ll have embedded themselves. They’re building up numbers,” a source said........




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Old 25th Aug 2019, 08:20
  #9585 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by ORAC
“Some of these people are amateurs. They turn up randomly..."
Steady on. Do they think they're dimmers?
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Old 25th Aug 2019, 12:31
  #9586 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by ORAC View Post
The Times:

Boris Johnson will today put Britain on an election footing by warning Brussels that he will slash more than £30bn from the EU divorce bill in the event of a no-deal Brexit.

His tough stance, intended to win over Brexit Party supporters, comes as the prime minister’s team are working on a populist emergency budget in October, in which fuel duty will be cut for the first time in eight years, paving the way for a general election the same month.....

Sir Lynton Crosby, Johnson’s longstanding elections guru, has told friends the balance of probability leans towards an election in mid to late October. That points to October 17, the day of the European Council meeting......

One of Crosby’s former aides, Isaac Levido, has been installed as the boss at Conservative campaign headquarters (CCHQ) and is recruiting staff for the election war room........

Under the terms of the Fixed-term Parliaments Act, Johnson needs the support of two-thirds of MPs to call an election. But his aides have been advised that they could pass a one-line bill with a simple majority that would say: “Notwithstanding the Fixed-term Parliaments Act, we will hold a general election on X date.”.......

Insiders say Johnson’s team might even be prepared to “throw” a vote of no confidence in the House of Commons — that is, allow it to succeed — if MPs who want to stop a no-deal try to bring down his government......
Interesting, it certainly fits with my view and indeed others because it's entirely transparent. Making lots of populist promises and being seen to 'stand up' to the 'bullying' EU. Even today the threat to withold money from the EU isn't going to frighten anyone in Europe but it looks good in the headlines.

This seeks to draw in possible Brexit party voters. A majority Tory government with possible Brexit party support would remove the DUP as a factor and the backstop becomes NI only leaving everyone happy except the DUP. It might be a close run thing.
On the other hand a no deal after gaining a majority in parliament would make retaining power easier once the actual consequences become clear. That and the narrative that it's all fault of French, Germans, Irish, Tusk, Barnier and the remainers.

On the other hand a no confidence vote gets him off the hook.

Time will tell but all the alternatives are designed to make him look good.
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Old 26th Aug 2019, 18:49
  #9587 (permalink)  
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https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2019/0...-is-different/

For better or worse, Boris Johnson is different

Robert Peston

I’ve learned only one thing at the G7 summit of big rich countries here in Biarritz: Boris Johnson absolutely loves being Prime Minister.

There’s little of the conspicuous sense of duty that weighed on the shoulders of Theresa May, Gordon Brown and Sir John Major. Nor is there that unnerving claim to embody the spirit of a nation that Tony Blair and Margaret Thatcher perhaps made too often and believed too much. There’s a touch of David Cameron’s Old Etonian entitlement, the idea that it would be odd if he weren’t PM.

But mostly Johnson simply seems to be having fun – whether by pointing a joshing finger at the imperious president of France or telling an incredulous President of the EU that they agree on absolutely everything.

Johnson’s bonhomie is all the more odd because the UK – as his advisers remind him continuously – is in the grips of the most acute peacetime crisis for generations, over how and even whether to leave the EU, and Johnson’s grip on power is almost non-existent, with no majority in Parliament and fratricide in his own Tory party as unremarkable as shaking hands.

But in Johnson we have the clown prince of prime ministers, who – for the first time in years, or perhaps ever – plainly thinks he is home.

His interlocutors – Emmanuel Macron, Donald Tusk, Justin Trudeau – all laugh. With him or at him? I am not sure that matters, in that he seems to cheer them up.

Crass buffoonery it is not. He has astutely allowed Trump to adopt him as his protege, while conspicuously siding with the rest of the world against Trump’s protectionist, mercantilist war with China and Trump’s attempt to starve and humiliate Iran with sanctions.

Johnson’s time at the top could yet be the shortest in history, if the MPs who hate his seemingly remorseless march to a no-deal exit from the EU have their way. But he is absolutely determined to enjoy himself – and to try his damnedest to represent a full-stop to the austerity of the Cameron/Osborne era and the anxiety of the May years.

Many of you, perhaps most of you, will say that little of what’s happening in the UK and in the world is a laughing matter, and you would be right. Many of you will recoil at the sangfroid with which Johnson is severing so much of what binds us to the continent of Europe. Equally it is obscenely premature to assess whether Johnson is the embodiment of an England cricket team that two days ago suffered its worst ever batting collapse or on Sunday enjoyed its greatest ever comeback – or indeed something altogether more ordinary.

But as you may have seen from my interview with him on Sunday, high office at a time of emergency has not cowed him in the way it did most of his predecessors.

For better or worse, Johnson is different.

Robert Peston is ITV’s political editor. This article originally appeared on his ITV news blog



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Old 26th Aug 2019, 19:14
  #9588 (permalink)  
 
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Johnson’s time at the top could yet be the shortest in history, if the MPs who hate his seemingly remorseless march to a no-deal exit from the EU have their way. But he is absolutely determined to enjoy himself
Well as long as Mr Johnson is enjoying himself I guess nothing else really matters


https://www.theguardian.com/commenti...hing-will-self
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Old 26th Aug 2019, 22:33
  #9589 (permalink)  
 
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I do not rate Peston very highly as a journalist even though ITV charmed him away from Aunty Beeb and made him their political editor.
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Old 27th Aug 2019, 06:09
  #9590 (permalink)  
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https://www.theguardian.com/politics.../jeremy-corbyn

Jeremy Corbyn could support pre-Brexit election to stop no deal

Jeremy Corbyn would support Boris Johnson in calling a general election, even if the polling day fell just days before the 31 October Brexit deadline, the Guardian understands.

The Labour leader’s team are convinced a no-deal Brexit could be thwarted by securing an extension from Britain’s EU partners, even after the European council meets on 17 October.

Johnson is widely believed to be plotting a snap poll if MPs try to thwart his Brexit plans – by passing legislation forcing him to ask for an extension to article 50, for example. However, under the Fixed-term Parliaments Act, the prime minister would need a two-thirds majority to call a general election before the next one is due in 2022. Theresa May passed that hurdle easily in 2017, with Labour keen to take her on at the polls.

But Nick Boles, a former Conservative MP who has been involved in cross-party efforts to find a Brexit compromise, has urged Corbyn to rule out supporting a general election before an extension to article 50 has been secured.

Corbyn will host a meeting of opposition leaders and other senior parliamentarians on Tuesday, a week before MPs return to Westminster, as he seeks to put himself at the forefront of efforts to stop no deal. Declining the invitation, Boles wrote to the Labour leader urging him to “declare publicly that you will not facilitate an election before an extension of article 50 has been secured and a no-deal Brexit has been averted”.......
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Old 27th Aug 2019, 06:43
  #9591 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by Blossy View Post
I do not rate Peston very highly as a journalist even though ITV charmed him away from Aunty Beeb and made him their political editor.
Something positive about the BBC at last.
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Old 27th Aug 2019, 08:50
  #9592 (permalink)  
 
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Boles wrote to the Labour leader urging him to “declare publicly that you will not facilitate an election before an extension of article 50 has been secured and a no-deal Brexit has been averted”.......

Is Mr Boles worried that a GE might not go the way he wants it to?
Add Soubry to the list to those who do not want a GE prior to anything else happening.

They are more concerned with their own futures than anything else. They know full well that if and when a GE is held, they are out.
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Old 27th Aug 2019, 09:15
  #9593 (permalink)  
 
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In my view, Johnson has shown he is not the soft touch May was, and it is no surprise to hear that politicians have suddenly gone into self-preservation mode with the realisation that their stance over the years has not put them in a good light and are at risk of losing it all in a General Election, even those staunch Conservative remain MP’s have started to back pedal on the rhetoric they spouted up until a few days after Johnson got to be PM.

It will be interesting to see how todays meeting with Corbyn and the anti-Brexit brigade is reported and what brilliant ideas they come up with to make Johnson give into their wishes, ideas that in their minds might have a chance of working before October the 31st.

I still think Johnson would be making big mistake to hold a GE before the October deadline no matter whether he did succeed in gaining a majority back for the Conservatives, which I do not think he would and only because I reckon that a GE will be seen by the leave side as capitulation and a lack of confidence in the strong words he is still quoting in that ‘ the UK will leave at the end of October, deal or no deal, I reckon a large majority would vote for any Brexit party MP’s Farage can put up for the elections, hope I am wrong but after the last three years I will not hold my breath.
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Old 27th Aug 2019, 09:56
  #9594 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Exrigger View Post
In my view, Johnson has shown he is not the soft touch May was, and it is no surprise to hear that politicians have suddenly gone into self-preservation mode with the realisation that their stance over the years has not put them in a good light and are at risk of losing it all in a General Election, even those staunch Conservative remain MP’s have started to back pedal on the rhetoric they spouted up until a few days after Johnson got to be PM.

It will be interesting to see how todays meeting with Corbyn and the anti-Brexit brigade is reported and what brilliant ideas they come up with to make Johnson give into their wishes, ideas that in their minds might have a chance of working before October the 31st.

I still think Johnson would be making big mistake to hold a GE before the October deadline no matter whether he did succeed in gaining a majority back for the Conservatives, which I do not think he would and only because I reckon that a GE will be seen by the leave side as capitulation and a lack of confidence in the strong words he is still quoting in that ‘ the UK will leave at the end of October, deal or no deal, I reckon a large majority would vote for any Brexit party MP’s Farage can put up for the elections, hope I am wrong but after the last three years I will not hold my breath.
Are they all anti Brexit or simply anti no-deal Brexit?

My personal take on todays meeting is that it will send a message to the EU leaders that Brexit (any ’flavour’) can still be stopped and it will not encourage them to further consider their current stance which I think is beginning to show signs of some limited flexibility. I still think Johnson is playing a PR blinder, we will soon find out if there is any substance to it.
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Old 27th Aug 2019, 10:10
  #9595 (permalink)  
 
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I note that Johnson is being taken to task for his 'pork pies' about pork pies!! How appropriate is that? Such subject matter for an established serial liar could not have been scripted more succinctly. Supposedly intelligent people actually voted for this ... (fill in expletives of choice!)
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Old 27th Aug 2019, 10:12
  #9596 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by yellowtriumph View Post
I
Are they all anti Brexit or simply anti no-deal Brexit?

My personal take on todays meeting is that it will send a message to the EU leaders that Brexit (any ’flavour’) can still be stopped and it will not encourage them to further consider their current stance which I think is beginning to show signs of some limited flexibility. I still think Johnson is playing a PR blinder, we will soon find out if there is any substance to it.
Probably not all, I would hazard a guess that most of those that are anti no-deal Brexit would also like to see Article 50 revoked, I often wonder what position the UK would be in now if May had been as strong willed over the last three years, and you are right that only time will tell if Johnson actually delivers any sort of Brexit on October 31st.
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Old 27th Aug 2019, 10:23
  #9597 (permalink)  
 
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My take on the electoral maths is this: approximately 1 in 3 voters is Leave under any circumstances, this is match by a similar fraction who support Remain. To both these cohorts the consequences are irrelevant and they will stick to their positions come what may. The remaining third are probably influenced by their perceived consequences of the outcome. At the moment I reckon this would make them about 2:1 against No Deal. So adding that together I think that the vote would currently be around 55/45 against a No Deal. If you put the May deal into the equation that would most likely push it nearer to 50/50. The obvious solution is Ref 2.
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Old 27th Aug 2019, 10:37
  #9598 (permalink)  
 
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People in the British Isles certainly live in interesting times just now..
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Old 27th Aug 2019, 10:57
  #9599 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by Aihkio View Post
People in the British Isles certainly live in interesting times just now..
Actually I don't think the majority realise that nor give a tinker's cuss.
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Old 27th Aug 2019, 11:02
  #9600 (permalink)  
 
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So long as Boris Johnson delivers Brexit on or before the 31st of October, he will be pure gold in any future election. Any other result will see the Conservative Party consigned to oblivion. High stakes!
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