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UK Politics Hamsterwheel MkII

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UK Politics Hamsterwheel MkII

Old 22nd Jul 2019, 13:54
  #9101 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by yellowtriumph View Post
My bold. Surely this bolded phrase alludes to a time limited period, not an open ended commitment. If the back stop were time limited I think most MP’s would live with that, even the DUP.
I'm sure the ERG and the DUP would happily live with a time limited back stop...that's because a backstop with a time limit isn't a back stop, and about as much use as a chocolate fire guard.
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Old 22nd Jul 2019, 15:11
  #9102 (permalink)  
 
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The issues covered by the backstop, important as they are, are by no means the only ones at stake. In fact the backstop comes down to a negotiating device to settle the issues important to one side before even discussing whatís important to the other. It now looks set to cause the very situation itís supposedly designed to prevent.
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Old 22nd Jul 2019, 15:25
  #9103 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by ShotOne View Post
The issues covered by the backstop, important as they are, are by no means the only ones at stake. In fact the backstop comes down to a negotiating device to settle the issues important to one side before even discussing whatís important to the other. It now looks set to cause the very situation itís supposedly designed to prevent.
The backstop hasn't caused these issues, it's the extremists in the ERG, along with the bigoted dinosaurs from the DUP who have had the power as a result of Theresa May's poor judgment in engineering the general election in 2017.

The (likely) election of Johnson as Tory party leader will simply reverse the situation, so that the Tory "awkward squad" will be current or former remainers rather than leavers - the arithmetic in the House of Commons hasn't changed one iota, though it might become worse for the Tories on Thursday, and potentially yet worse a few months down the line of the (honorable) member for Dover gets his collar felt.
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Old 22nd Jul 2019, 15:28
  #9104 (permalink)  
 
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Be interesting to see how the LibDems fare with Jo Swinson as leader. I rather suspect they may do quite well, with so many being fed up with both Boris Johnson and Jeremy Corbyn.
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Old 22nd Jul 2019, 15:51
  #9105 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by wiggy View Post
I'm sure the ERG and the DUP would happily live with a time limited back stop...that's because a backstop with a time limit isn't a back stop, and about as much use as a chocolate fire guard.
As the House of Commons has voted against the 'back stop' three times now, in its current form it is clearly "about as much use as a chocolate fire guard".
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Old 22nd Jul 2019, 16:04
  #9106 (permalink)  
 
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Excellent news: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-49076118.
Should make Gruinard readers nervous.
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Old 22nd Jul 2019, 16:08
  #9107 (permalink)  
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The (likely) election of Johnson as Tory party leader will simply reverse the situation, so that the Tory "awkward squad" will be current or former remainers rather than leavers - the arithmetic in the House of Commons hasn't changed one iota, though it might become worse for the Tories on Thursday, and potentially yet worse a few months down the line of the (honorable) member for Dover gets his collar felt.
The difference being Boris doesn't have to get any legislation passed at all, just prevent any.

In this he will be aided by the fact that, reported on Sky News this morning, that the first tactic to be employed is that the government will bring no primary legislation forward between parliament reconvening on 6th Sept and 31st October, meaning no votes to add amendments can be added and passed.

This is further supported by the fact that any, if the Speaker bends the rules to allow a private members bill to be introduced that affects the Royal Prerogative (as any bill to delay or repeal A50 would), the government can refuse to provide Royal Consent, killing it before 3rd reading.

The only means parliament has to stop a government set on letting the clock run down is to use a vote of no confidence to defeat the government and install another. The deadline for such a vote to be placed in the House to permit a general election and new government before 31st October is Thursday 24th July - in 3 days time.

Post that date the only route left is both to defeat the current government in such a vote, negotiate a deal between the opposition parties and decide on a joint coalition leader, then have Boris resign as acting PM and the new leader appointed by ER*, before holding a vote of confidence before the 14 day window expires. if they fail to do then parliament will automatically prorogue and an election be called, during which Brexit will occur. Is it a chance they would take and bring Brexit down on their heads - and be held to blame?

So the cards are very much in the governments favour.

*Because the wording of the relevant section in the Fixed Term Parliament Act states the wording for the motion calling the vote must be "That this House has confidence in Her Majesty’s Government".
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Old 22nd Jul 2019, 20:57
  #9108 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by VP959 View Post
Be interesting to see how the LibDems fare with Jo Swinson as leader. I rather suspect they may do quite well, with so many being fed up with both Boris Johnson and Jeremy Corbyn.
Well, my raffle prize (an orange BOLLOCKS TO BREXIT diamond with Jo's autograph) just became more valuable
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Old 22nd Jul 2019, 21:01
  #9109 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by ATNotts View Post
Tory "awkward squad"
Oi - the "Awkward Squad" is a LibDem institution[#] - I've got the T shirt!

https://awkwardsquad.teemill.com/

[#] By the name of Jennie Rigg. Who claims to be a maverick, but she's a big cheese on the FCC and you can't get much more establishment than that, even with her colour hair.
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Old 23rd Jul 2019, 06:45
  #9110 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by NoelEvans View Post
Excellent news: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-49076118.
Should make Gruinard readers nervous.
Well she has an interesting history, certainly an interesting voting record and strikes me as another politician who will do what it takes and say whatever it takes to climb up the ladder, just like somebody else who has been in the news recently.. can't quite recall the name but I'll come up with it in a minute.

Anyhow whilst she might make some "Gruinard" readers nervous it is certainly not all of them.

https://www.theguardian.com/commenti...england-brexit

.... TBF I'd suggest Jo Swinson's becoming leader of the Lid Dems should make some Daily Mail readers nervous as well...

Last edited by wiggy; 23rd Jul 2019 at 06:57.
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Old 23rd Jul 2019, 06:51
  #9111 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by NoelEvans View Post
Excellent news: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-49076118.
Should make Gruinard readers nervous.
I always thunked this was an island off the Scottish coast where we chucked some nasty stuff ..and killed a lot of innocent rabbits as a result !

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Old 23rd Jul 2019, 07:47
  #9112 (permalink)  
 
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Nah! It's a fish. And a very strange looking fish too! Oh! Hang on! I am confusing it with the Gurnard.
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Old 23rd Jul 2019, 15:22
  #9113 (permalink)  
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JC, when asked about a vote of no confidence stated that he would only call for one, “at the appropriate time”. From which the commentators are taking it that he will not be requesting one this week.

In in which case the window for a general election and a new government being put in place before 31st Oct has now closed.

And with it, assuming the HoC can’t find an alternate PM in the 14 days between any such vote and dissolution, the chances of a vote to stop Brexit. Because the government can without Royal Consent to any bill which attempts to do so.
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Old 23rd Jul 2019, 15:36
  #9114 (permalink)  
 
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“at the appropriate time”. From which the commentators are taking it that he will not be requesting one this week.
The Labour Party are organising a demo at Westminster Thursday 18:00 with the theme "Boris Out. Labour In".
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Old 23rd Jul 2019, 15:37
  #9115 (permalink)  
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Leader of the LibDems says they wonít accept the result of a second referendum unless it is to remain.

Which kills the entire Peopleís Vote movement at a stroke........

https://order-order.com/2019/07/23/j...nd-referendum/
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Old 23rd Jul 2019, 15:53
  #9116 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by KelvinD View Post
Nah! It's a fish. And a very strange looking fish too! Oh! Hang on! I am confusing it with the Gurnard.
The last time I saw Gurnard it looked nothing like a fish.
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Old 23rd Jul 2019, 16:04
  #9117 (permalink)  
 
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Jo Swinson's stance makes good sense in electoral terms. It's rather like Farage saying he wouldn't accept the result unless it's leave. With the LD's sitting around 20% in the polls there are more fish in the Remainer pool to be hooked. If she was at 40% then such an uncompromising position would not be wise! but I'm guessing that around one person in three doesn't want Brexit at all and would not even if it was a great economic advantage to leave. In the same way that Brexit party people want it even if it means disaster.
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Old 23rd Jul 2019, 16:17
  #9118 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by ORAC View Post
Leader of the LibDems says they wonít accept the result of a second referendum unless it is to remain.

Which kills the entire Peopleís Vote movement at a stroke........

https://order-order.com/2019/07/23/j...nd-referendum/
She said nothing of the sort, at least not in the interview that I saw on BBC Breakfast this morning. She said then that in the event that the new referendum confirmed the decision to leave then she'd accept it, although she personally wouldn't change her view.

​​​​​​​Somewhat different to the LibDems not accepting the result I think.
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Old 23rd Jul 2019, 16:27
  #9119 (permalink)  
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That’s what she says in the interview in the link - the LibDems were elected on a mandate to stop Brexit and that’s what they are going to do, regardless of the result of anybreferendum.

Which makes the LbDems complaints about the Conservatives doing exactly the same thing somewhat hypocritical.....
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Old 23rd Jul 2019, 17:51
  #9120 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by ORAC View Post
JC, when asked about a vote of no confidence stated that he would only call for one, ďat the appropriate timeĒ.
Which, astonishingly enough, is the same time, under the "long game", that he will rise up and oppose #brexshit.
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