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UK Politics Hamsterwheel MkII

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UK Politics Hamsterwheel MkII

Old 18th Jul 2019, 07:25
  #9021 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by ShotOne View Post
Odd you should complain at the lack of debate when the accompanying article contains nothing other than repeated accusations of stupidity against Rees Mogg with no debate or even opinion on any aspect of Brexit
I'm just as happy to provide selected quotes as all the other squirrel pointers in this place ( "oooohh look, never mind Brexit/Boris, there's Jeremy Corbyn"), but I did provide a link to the full Richard North blog.

I take it from your reply you've now read the whole of the relevant article and yet still think it contains"no debate or even opinion on any aspect of Brexit"?
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Old 18th Jul 2019, 07:25
  #9022 (permalink)  
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Whatever has happened and however you got there, this is where you are now:


https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics...ris-corbyn-pm/
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Old 18th Jul 2019, 07:54
  #9023 (permalink)  
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POLITICO:

COMMONS SHOWDOWN KLAXON: A big day in the Commons may lie ahead as MPs make a final attempt before the summer break to ensure parliament gets a chance to block a no-deal Brexit. The House of Lords last night voted to beef up an existing amendment to the glamorously titled Northern Ireland (Executive Formation) Bill which would make it harder for the next PM to suspend parliament in October. The Lords amendment would also give MPs the prospect of a neutral motion being tabled in the Commons that same month, which they could try to use to stop no deal. The bill returns to the Commons at lunchtime, with MPs voting on whether to accept the amendment at around 1.30 p.m. The result is on an absolute knife-edge.

But there’s more: The hot rumor in Westminster last night was that Tory rebel Dominic Grieve is today planning to reintroduce an earlier amendment — ruled out of order last week — which goes significantly further in ensuring parliament cannot be prorogued during key dates in October. As Newsnight’s Nick Watt reported last night, some Remainer MPs believe the fact the Northern Ireland Bill has now been amended in the Lords means its scope has effectively been widened — and so Grieve’s original plan could now be ruled in order. This would require a sympathetic Commons speaker who was prepared both to accept a rare “manuscript” amendment being tabled on the day of the vote, and then to reverse last week’s decision. But with John Bercow in the chair today rather than his deputy Eleanor Laing, anything is possible.

And there’s still more: Excitingly, Watt also reports that a string of senior ministers were last night discussing whether to quit their posts today in order to back Grieve’s amendment, should he secure a vote. Those extra numbers could make all the difference. A watered-down version of Grieve’s amendment did pass the Commons last week, but only by a single vote — and only then because Tory Whip Jo Churchill forgot to cast her own ballot. So every MP is going to count today.

Before we all get carried away … None of this is confirmed as yet — and we’ve been here many, many times before. Repeatedly over the past six months, Remain-supporting Tory ministers have muttered dark threats to journalists about resigning to vote against no deal. Repeatedly they have failed to do so. Could today be different? It’s possible, given many are expected to either quit or be sacked next Wednesday if Boris Johnson becomes PM. But it’s unlikely to happen unless they believe their vote will make a real difference.

So who might quit? Start your day with this timely story in the Daily Mail this morning, via well-connected Political Editor Jason Groves. “Philip Hammond is poised to quit before Boris Johnson becomes prime minister next week, Tory sources said last night,” Groves writes. “The chancellor is said to have told friends he accepts he is on his way out of the government and is determined to deny Mr Johnson the satisfaction of sacking him. One insider last night said removal vans could arrive at No. 11 Downing Street as early as today.” Presumably this would mean Theresa May having to appoint a new chancellor for a whopping six-day term — surely one for the record books?

Hammond Watch: He’s at the G7 finance ministers summit in France today … Keep an eye out for a TV clip on his way in.

Also on resignation watch: Justice Secretary David Gauke must be another decent candidate for an early exit, given the band of Remain-supporting ministers have been nicknamed the “Gaukeward Squad” in his honor. Helpfully, he is making a speech on sentencing reform at the Social Market Foundation at 9.30 a.m., so we’ll get a chance to ask him then. He’s also on the Today program in a sec.......


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Old 18th Jul 2019, 08:30
  #9024 (permalink)  
 
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Tell me if I'm missing something.
Unless a deal is agreed or an extension of time is agreed, we leave the EU on 31st. Oct. without a deal.. How can parliament stop that by voting to stop a no deal ?
Isn't no deal the default position on 31st. Oct. no matter what ?
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Old 18th Jul 2019, 08:43
  #9025 (permalink)  
 
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To answer your question: You are missing something, it's this. The EU have made it clear that they will extend for a referendum or a general election. Phillip Hammond, David Gauke, Dominic Grieve and several others are prepared to support a no confidence vote to bring down a Boris government to prevent No Deal.
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Old 18th Jul 2019, 09:00
  #9026 (permalink)  
 
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But only if they are asked for an extension.
Who will have the authority to ask?
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Old 18th Jul 2019, 09:16
  #9027 (permalink)  
 
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That is tricky isn't it? And I don't know the answer if an administration ends to hold a GE. But I am pretty sure that something will turn up in such a situation. BTW, in such a circumstance do you still back grandad to win?
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Old 18th Jul 2019, 09:25
  #9028 (permalink)  
 
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My prediction was based on a GE after a no-deal Brexit.
If there is one now, there is no way anyone can predict the result. My guess would be no majority.
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Old 18th Jul 2019, 09:49
  #9029 (permalink)  
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To sum up where we are now.

The current votes concerning the NI bill are a chimera for remainers. As I have previously linked, the constitutional position is that, since the prorogue of Parliament is part of the Royal Prerogative, ant bill wishing to change it has to both state so clearly and obtain Royal Consent from the executive. Since neither applies, if prorogual is requested, then it will take priority over whatever they put in the Act.

https://www.conservativehome.com/pla...ward-spot.html

Assuming that Boris is elected, Labour has to ask for a vote of no confidence on either the 24th or 25th of July, to be held on 25th July or 3rd Sept respectively. Any request after those dates, or a failure to pass the vote, means any further vote of. O confidence will mean, unless JC can get a majority in the HoC (!!!), then Parliament will prorogue anyway for a GE and will not resist till after 31st Oct.

It can be assumed that Boris will not ask the EU for another extension, and the EU has confirmed that the PM is the only person recognised to request an extension. Ant attempt by parliament to pass a bill thwarting Brexit will inevitably involving money (in the £Bs) and therefore also require Royal Consent, which again requires the approval of the government which will be withheld.

https://ukconstitutionallaw.org/2019...xtension-bill/

Which is why Phil Hammond is repeatedly stating the only way he can seeBrexit being stopped is by a vote of no confidence - so next week is the crunch point.
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Old 18th Jul 2019, 10:01
  #9030 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by papajuliet View Post
Tell me if I'm missing something.
Unless a deal is agreed or an extension of time is agreed, we leave the EU on 31st. Oct. without a deal.. How can parliament stop that by voting to stop a no deal ?
Isn't no deal the default position on 31st. Oct. no matter what ?
Technically maybe.

But for Brexit to mean anything - with or without a deal - the people on the ground have to start doing things differently.
Customs (UK or EU) would have to start doing different checks or demanding different paperwork. Border control for movement of citizens in either direction would have to start enforcing different rules.

If none of that happens then these people on the ground just carry on as before until told to do otherwise. Then a default Brexit will, initially at least, look very much like a default Remain.
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Old 18th Jul 2019, 10:12
  #9031 (permalink)  
 
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It will be interesting to see how correct Steve Richards will be with his predictions in September 2018 about Johnson becoming PM:

https://www.theguardian.com/commenti...prime-minister
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Old 18th Jul 2019, 13:26
  #9032 (permalink)  
 
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ORAC's Commons Showdown Klaxon a few posts above happened and the vote got through which reduces the chances of proroguing Paliament
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Old 18th Jul 2019, 14:21
  #9033 (permalink)  
 
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Here’s a scenario that no one seems to have thought of, at least recently. Possibly because it’s a load of tosh, but here goes.

Next week Boris is duly elected Tory leader. A vote of no confidence is immediately called, which he loses. The Queen takes soundings on whether anyone else could form a government, and up steps (say) Caroline Lucas, the Green MP, who has gathered sufficient support from Remainers/No Dealers to get a majority. She becomes PM, and informs the EU that she will be having another vote of no confidence that she expects to lose (as that was the deal on the quiet with the likes of Philip Hammond), but before that can we have a 6 month extension as we will be having an election at the beginning of September? EU would probably say yes to that. Thus it is ensured that nothing changes until an election.

I chose Caroline Lucas rather than Corbyn as temporary PM, as I assume that being a closet Brexiteer he wouldn’t be interested in such a deal.

Whether an election would change anything is debatable, and would probably depend on what policy Labour finally decided on. If it was to revoke Article 50 in the event that pro Remain parties got more than 50% of the popular vote, and announced themselves as pro Remain then they could get a majority. The Brexit Party impact would be intriguing- would they get more seats than the Tories, or would a Boris-led party have a negative effect on Farage’s vote?

Stranger things and all that....
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Old 18th Jul 2019, 19:55
  #9034 (permalink)  
 
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So the slime balls have voted to tie the hands of the future PM's re a no deal Brexit in effect crippling his negotiating bargaining chip. I also note tonight that Teresa May never even used it in negotiating the dreadful deal.
What also annoys me is those MP's that have abstained simply to hold onto their jobs and the rewards that come with it, they should also resign. They should not be allowed to abstain on any vote.
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Old 18th Jul 2019, 20:19
  #9035 (permalink)  
 
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Aaaaah, but!

If the first thing the remoaners do is trigger a successful vote of not confidence and Boris has to ask the Queen to dissolve parliament what is the latest date an election can be called for? Is not Boris still Prime Minister until the next leader of the majority party goes to the Queen to ask her to recall the commons?

If they call an election does not the conservative candidate require the approval of the central party office and how many of the remainers would lose that approval? How many would lose their local party support? How many would lose their seat to Brexit candidate?

In the absence of a vote absolutely requiring the PM to request an extension does not Brexit occur by default on the due date?

Boy, do you guys live in exciting times, or what?
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Old 18th Jul 2019, 21:15
  #9036 (permalink)  
 
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Boris is not Prime Minister until he can show that he has the confidence of a majority of MPs.
That has yet to be proven.
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Old 18th Jul 2019, 22:24
  #9037 (permalink)  
 
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Chris VJ :those of us who have the time to observe the happenings watch with amusement/despair.
The people who will live with consequences are far to busy living life, ie my children

I think the man who's name rhymes with Punt will win and create another level of chaos …………...
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Old 18th Jul 2019, 23:52
  #9038 (permalink)  
 
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Are you telling us that all the polls and hype around Boris is just that? (Would not be the first time!)

So who calls the election if 'None of the above' cangain the confidence of the majority. Does that require May to see the Queen?

Three chances for Boris to fall at the last fence. Fail to beat Hunt, fail to get majority confidence or immediate vote of no confidence. Tough row to hoe.

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Old 19th Jul 2019, 04:37
  #9039 (permalink)  
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At last...good political news !.......well apart from the £3bn he's used of tax payers money that is.......a true testimony to the holy grail of privatisation ..

https://www.theguardian.com/politics...aster-bows-out
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Old 19th Jul 2019, 05:06
  #9040 (permalink)  
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Boris is not Prime Minister until he can show that he has the confidence of a majority of MPs.
Boris will become PM if and when the Queen calls him to the Palace and asks him to form a government. It is solely a position at the discretion of the monarch.

It it is not obvious whether the current PM would remain in post as caretaker PM during the next 14 days or be replaced, though it seems that is choice of the incumbent - and I could not imagine Boris voluntarily handing over to JC before 14 day requirement for a general election is required.

Which rakes us us back to the importance of 24/25th July again.

https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk...ral-elections/

..........”The Cabinet Manual says that in the 14-day period: “an alternative Government can be formed from the House of Commons as presently constituted, or the incumbent Government can seek to regain the confidence of the House.”

If an alternative Government is formed, the fact that the second motion must express confidence in ‘Her Majesty’s Government’ means that its leader must have been appointed Prime Minister by the Queen before he or she can test the opinion of the House by putting the second motion.

It is also important to note that, as the then Political and Constitutional Reform Committee said in their report, ‘Government formation post-election’ (at para 31) there must always be a Government. Hence a Prime Minister who resigns their Government either hands power to a successor,or a ‘caretaker’ administration governs until an election is held. The caretaker administration could be headed by the outgoing Prime Minister (as Callaghan did in 1979) or a new Prime Minister appointed by the Queen. The Institute for Government (IfG) notes that:

“…at the point when the previous government has lost a vote of confidence, it may not be obvious that their opponents could themselves win one.”

The IfG points out that a Prime Minister who has lost a vote in such circumstances would have to choose between hanging on and hoping to regain the confidence of the House; or handing over to the leader of the Opposition,even if they seemed unlikely to be able to put together a parliamentary majority..........”


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