Go Back  PPRuNe Forums > PPRuNe Social > Jet Blast
Reload this Page >

UK Politics Hamsterwheel MkII

Jet Blast Topics that don't fit the other forums. Rules of Engagement apply.

UK Politics Hamsterwheel MkII

Old 24th Jun 2019, 11:33
  #8781 (permalink)  
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
 
Join Date: Jul 2000
Location: Peripatetic
Posts: 10,824
Brexit date is Thursday 31st Oct. Elections are held on a Thursday, so count back from there.

An election campaign must, by law, run for at least 25 working days before the election. Counting back from there takes you to 26th September. But that is the minimum length, and therefore you can add in the additional days back to the previous Friday which would preclude an election on the preceding Thursday. That takes you to Friday 20th Sept for the dissolution of Parliament.

Prorogation takes place a few days before the dissolution of Parliament. Parliamentary activity stops at prorogation and there are then a few days of ceremonial activities. Assume prorogation takes place on Tuesday 24th September.

Assume prorogation takes place at the end of the 14 days legislated for in the Fixed Term Parliament Act after a vote of no-confidence, then the vote would take place NLT than Monday 10th September to allow a new parliament to be in place before Brexit happens.

Therefore, since no parliamentary business takes place on a Friday or Monday when MPs already in their constituencies, a vote of no confidence would have to occur before Thursday 6th September.

The HoC rises for recess between 25th July and 3rd September. The count of the Conservative party leadership election votes will be held the week beginning is expected to be announced on the 25th to allow the new leader time to appoint a new Cabinet and organise his office before facing parliament for the first time after the recess.

The window, therefore, for Labour to call for and have a vote of no confidence against Boris, if elected, to allow a new PM to ask the EU for an extension prior to Brexit is Monday 3rd to Thursday 6th September.

Last edited by ORAC; 24th Jun 2019 at 11:49.
ORAC is offline  
Old 24th Jun 2019, 11:51
  #8782 (permalink)  
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
 
Join Date: Jul 2000
Location: Peripatetic
Posts: 10,824
From KnCís favourite paper, canít understand how he missed it.....

https://www.theguardian.com/politics...it-says-report

Brexit: alternative to Irish backstop Ďfeasible in three yearsí
ORAC is offline  
Old 24th Jun 2019, 16:41
  #8783 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Oct 2004
Location: UK
Posts: 1,998
With the alleged willingness of at least a dozen Tory MPs, some now in cabinet, to bring their government down in the event that the new PM tries to leave the EU with no deal (BBC Panorama tonight), Mr. Johnson is left in a tight sport; less so Mr. Hunt.

To carry through his commitment (I think that what he made anyway) to leave the EU on 31st October with, or without a deal, he would essentially have to, using exactly the current parliamentary arithmetic,by bringing into line the ERG and DUP to pass Theresa May's exit agreement, or else be voted out of office through a vote of no confidence. Essentially he would be between a rock and a very hard place. Jeremy Hunt, being rather more pragmatic and less dogmatic may have a tad more wriggle room, but not much, since the EU won't be quick to offer any further extensions just the the rusty can can be kicked further down the road. He may turn out to be a more astute negotiator and somehow get an extension, but if he didn't he'd be left with the same choices (no confidence vote or leave with May's deal) and the same parliamentary arithmetic.

Only way around that would be for the PM to call a new referendum based on exit with no deal, or remain - and neither candidate for anointment as PM appeals (publicly) to be willing to take such a step.

It looks to me like a fairly hurried no confidence vote followed by an extension granted by the EU until after the election of a new government, and then either, if the Tories were to win a majority or govern with the Brexit party, a swift exit with no deal; or if Labour in coalition with the SNP and LibDems won, a longer extension for a new negotiation and referendum on leaving with their deal, or remaining.

What price the UK not leaving at all now? I'd say the odds have shortened somewhat.

I read what ORAC says regarding parliamentary timetables, general election rules etc. but the EU would like us to reverse our 2016 decision, and they will reluctantly give a further extension if they feel that through an election and / or referendum that goal could be achieved.
ATNotts is offline  
Old 24th Jun 2019, 17:13
  #8784 (permalink)  
I don't own this space under my name. I should have leased it while I still could
 
Join Date: Dec 2002
Location: Lincolnshire
Age: 77
Posts: 16,730
ATNotts,
To carry through his commitment (I think that what he made anyway) to leave the EU on 31st October with, or without a deal
I would agree he was absolutely positive that he made that commitment.

However, always a however with a politician, I am pretty certain that he added a few weasel words during that television debate, along the lines that it would be 31st Oct or close, but he evaded the matter of how close.
Pontius Navigator is offline  
Old 24th Jun 2019, 17:40
  #8785 (permalink)  
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
 
Join Date: Jul 2000
Location: Peripatetic
Posts: 10,824
ATNotts,

He doesn’t have to do anything, Brexit is the default unless he asks the EU for an extension. It was made quite clear by the politicians on Inside Politics that they crept the route of forcing through legislation is now dead, and that a vote of no confidence is the only remaining option.

However, they will not succeed in getting one against May before the recess, which leaves 3-6th September as the only remaining window. The question being, if Boris claims he is still intent on doing a deal, and has organised meetings around the EU, whether the opposition would be able to both organise a vote and gain a majority.

Whilst there may be “up to” 12 Conservatives willing to vote against their party, remember 27 Labour MPs voted against the last 3 line whip for a second referendum, including 4 shadow ministers.
ORAC is offline  
Old 24th Jun 2019, 19:22
  #8786 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Nov 2000
Location: Cambridge, England, EU
Posts: 3,433
Originally Posted by Bob Viking View Post
Sorry if it seems Iím being defensive
Happy for you to show me around if you've got some spare time during #ldconf.
Gertrude the Wombat is offline  
Old 24th Jun 2019, 19:32
  #8787 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Oct 2004
Location: UK
Posts: 1,998
Originally Posted by ORAC View Post
ATNotts,

He doesnít have to do anything, Brexit is the default unless he asks the EU for an extension. It was made quite clear by the politicians on Inside Politics that they crept the route of forcing through legislation is now dead, and that a vote of no confidence is the only remaining option.

However, they will not succeed in getting one against May before the recess, which leaves 3-6th September as the only remaining window. The question being, if Boris claims he is still intent on doing a deal, and has organised meetings around the EU, whether the opposition would be able to both organise a vote and gain a majority.

Whilst there may be ďup toĒ 12 Conservatives willing to vote against their party, remember 27 Labour MPs voted against the last 3 line whip for a second referendum, including 4 shadow ministers.
"He", it could be Johnson or Hunt, may very well face a no confidence vote at any time up to 31st. October; and if they lost that I am in no doubt that the EU would arrange an "emergency" summit to sort out an extension, first to allow the UK to hold it's general election, and after that, assuming that there were a new, less extreme (from a Brexit standpoint only) government in charge, to extend further while an amended future arrangement were hammered out (customs union or the like) which would then, in all probability have to be put to a referendum.

Johnson (or Hunt) may be so attached to power that in reality they may be able to force through May's deal, however unpalatable, selling it to the ERG and DUP on the grounds that the alternative of a confidence vote and potential Corbyn administration is too frightening to bear.

I really don't believe it's as much a done deal as you portray - and I haven't even factored in Mr Speaker!
ATNotts is offline  
Old 24th Jun 2019, 20:01
  #8788 (permalink)  
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
 
Join Date: Jul 2000
Location: Peripatetic
Posts: 10,824
ATNotts,

The EU can’t give another extension unless the UK requests it. And numerous international precedents confirm the request has to be made by the executive in the form of the PM. To quote Article 50....

...”The Treaties shall cease to apply to the State in question from the date of entry into force of the withdrawal agreement or, failing that, two years after the notification referred to in paragraph 2, unless the European Council, in agreement with the Member State concerned, unanimously decides to extend this period.”.....
ORAC is offline  
Old 24th Jun 2019, 20:10
  #8789 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Oct 2004
Location: UK
Posts: 1,998
Originally Posted by ORAC View Post
ATNotts,

The EU canít give another extension unless the UK requests it. And numerous international precedents confirm the request has to be made by the executive in the form of the PM. To quote Article 50....

...ĒThe Treaties shall cease to apply to the State in question from the date of entry into force of the withdrawal agreement or, failing that, two years after the notification referred to in paragraph 2, unless the European Council, in agreement with the Member State concerned, unanimously decides to extend this period.Ē.....
And if there's a no confidence vote? It would be very foolish of the incumbent PM not to request it while the election is in train don't you think?

I know you are very pro Brexit, but I think it unwise to count too many chickens at this stage. The outcome of any general election in such a febrile atmosphere would be very difficult to forecast, despite the various opinion polls to which you have drawn our attention, and it may well be that as you believe a Johnson run Tory party could still be in power after it, in which case a no deal Brexit at the end of a temporary extension would be the end result -
you'd win; I'd lose!!!

Could equally go the other way.
ATNotts is offline  
Old 24th Jun 2019, 21:02
  #8790 (permalink)  
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
 
Join Date: Jul 2000
Location: Peripatetic
Posts: 10,824
The incumbent PM couldn’t - under purdah the executive cannot make any other than day to day decisions, all else being left to the incoming administration......

...”it is customary for Ministers to observe discretion in initiating any action of a continuing or long term character. Decisions on matters of policy..... on which a new government might be expected to want the opportunity to take a different view from the present government, should be postponed until after the election.....

Which is exactly why so much panic and effort is be8ng places in trying to organise a vote of no confidence. It is, as they say, the last roll of the dice.

ORAC is offline  
Old 25th Jun 2019, 00:14
  #8791 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Dec 2013
Location: Norfolk
Age: 64
Posts: 4
The Prime Minister does not have to be the leader of the Conservative Party. At some point Theresa May will have to go to Buckingham Palace and advise HM the Queen of the name of someone who has the confidence of the majority of the House of Commons, and who she believes should be appointed the next Prime Minister.

It doesn't matter who is elected leader of the Conservative Party, Mrs. May remains Prime Minister until she recommends the name of a suitable successor to the Queen.

If Mrs. May refuses to name a suitable successor, she will remain as Prime Minister until a General Election is called. The Conservative Party, knowing that an Election will destroy the party will not allow that to happen. There are also enough MPs in other parties, who for various reasons, will not support a vote of no confidence in the government. Therefore a call for a Genneral Election will be voted down by a cross party majority of MPs.

If Theresa May just sits on her hands and refuses to recommend a successor, the UK inevitably leaves the EU on the 31st of October without a deal.

Alternatively, if the timing is right, parliament will be dissolved and an election called and held diring the period we leave the EU. Nobody left to oppose such action in the UK or the EU, since the EU are effectively out of the office until the 1st of November.

In the meantime we will have to put up with the BBC luvvies employing every device they can to avoid Brexit. Recent topical programmes have gone beyond parody and into the realms of blatant propaganda. Now about that licence fee...
G0ULI is offline  
Old 25th Jun 2019, 06:25
  #8792 (permalink)  
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
 
Join Date: Jul 2000
Location: Peripatetic
Posts: 10,824
Labour on general election footing as they look to purge non-Momentum supporting MPs...

https://www.politicshome.com/news/uk...given-two-week

Labour MPs in 'purge' fear as they are given two-week reselection deadline

In a surprise move, Labour general secretary Jennie Formby wrote to all MPs on Monday confirming the party is now on a general election footing.

She said: "Today, the NEC officers met and agreed the procedural guidelines for re-selection of sitting Members of Parliament. The first stage is to collate the intentions of sitting MPs. "I am therefore writing to ask you to inform the Labour Party if you wish to remain a candidate at the next General Election?"

The MPs were asked to fill in a form and return it to the party's legal department by 6pm on Monday, 8 July.

Ms Formby added: "May I also take this opportunity to thank you for the work you have done so far on behalf of the party in Parliament.".........

https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/ent...b0a39418673241

It could also screw up Labour’s plans for a vote of no confidence, as most of those lined up for deselection are those supporting Brexit and, to quote the above article...

But several MPs were furious at the move and told HuffPost UK that it could undermine Corbyn’s hopes of winning a confidence vote to trigger a general election - as deselected MPs would have no incentive to follow the whip.”......



Last edited by ORAC; 25th Jun 2019 at 08:41.
ORAC is offline  
Old 25th Jun 2019, 08:05
  #8793 (permalink)  
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
 
Join Date: Jul 2000
Location: Peripatetic
Posts: 10,824
The Sunís take on the timetable for changeover of PM. Not sure they have left enough time in there for TM to go to the Palace after PMQs and then Jeremy/Boris to go and be anointed and move in the same day. I have my suspicions that might take place in the Thursday, the day the HoC is due to rise for recess.

Watch out for wha5 happens today when the recess timings are out to the vote. If the timing remains unchanged as Thursday afternoon, I canít see the time being available for the required routine business plus a debate and vote.

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/936132...n-jeremy-hunt/

Postal voting will close at the end of Monday July 22, with counting taking place overnight and being announced during the afternoon of Tuesday 23rd. The winner are expected to then see the Queen and take over on Wednesday July 24th.

No10 sources say Mrs May is expected to offer to stay on in power for 24 hours after the leadership contest winner is announced to carry out one final Prime Ministerís Questions (noon on Wednesday 24th). She would then be driven to the Palace to offer her resignation and advise HM of her successor. Jeremy/Boris would then be called to the Palace (during which time TM would tearfully depart No 10) and move in to No 10 in the evening.

The Commons will vote on its summer recess dates in a vote tonight, with the start when the house the afternoon of Thursday 25th. If the intention by Labour is for a vote of no confidence the same day, the start will have to be delayed.

And the question, of course, of what happens to recess if the vote should pass and the 14 day period under the FTP Act should start.



ORAC is offline  
Old 25th Jun 2019, 08:27
  #8794 (permalink)  
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
 
Join Date: Jul 2000
Location: Peripatetic
Posts: 10,824
The government will move the writ in the Brecon and Radnor by-election today, which means the election be held on July 25th. The same day Labour plan to have their VNC, and the House break up for the summer.

Which should detract attention away from the result in the MSM nicely.....
ORAC is offline  
Old 25th Jun 2019, 08:32
  #8795 (permalink)  
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
 
Join Date: Jul 2000
Location: Peripatetic
Posts: 10,824
Hmmm, my timings obviously missed something. It would appear that window after recess to stop Brexit isn’t the 3rd-6th, just the 3rd.....

https://www.politico.eu/newsletter/l...it-department/

We’re all going on a summer holiday: MPs approved parliament’s recess dates last night. The House of Commons will break for the summer on July 25 and return on September 3. Some MPs were worried this would not leave enough time for the new prime minister to address the House before the summer break.

As for potential no-confidence vote timing, Graeme Cowie, a House of Commons Library clerk, calculates the statutory timetable for an early general election (on Thursday 24 October) would require a vote of no confidence to be debated no later than Tuesday September 3 — the first day back from summer recess.




ORAC is offline  
Old 25th Jun 2019, 19:51
  #8796 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Apr 2008
Location: UK
Posts: 43
In the unlikely event anyone wishes to read about what is facing our new PM regarding negotiations with the EU, this speech from Sir Ivan Rogers is worth a read. He’s pretty balanced, and therefore will probably annoy those from the extremes of either side re Brexit. It’s not very encouraging, but it is an insight into what the short-term may look like.

http://www.eureferendum.com/document...ch%20final.pdf

zoigberg is offline  
Old 26th Jun 2019, 07:09
  #8797 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Feb 2001
Location: The Winchester
Posts: 5,889
zoigberg,

Thank you for that link. As you say Sir Ivan's speech is not encouraging but TBH what he says should not come as a surprise to anybody who has been paying attention over the last 3 years (plus).

It will of course be labelled as part "project fear" and the outpourings of a remainer by some of the usual suspects.
wiggy is offline  
Old 26th Jun 2019, 10:15
  #8798 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Apr 2008
Location: UK
Posts: 43
Originally Posted by wiggy View Post
zoigberg,

Thank you for that link. As you say Sir Ivan's speech is not encouraging but TBH what he says should not come as a surprise to anybody who has been paying attention over the last 3 years (plus).

It will of course be labelled as part "project fear" and the outpourings of a remainer by some of the usual suspects.

Agreed. For those who put him in the Remainer camp, he does say on page 1 that the people who voted to leave have the right to expect the political elite to deliver on the result of the referendum.
zoigberg is offline  
Old 26th Jun 2019, 10:17
  #8799 (permalink)  
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
 
Join Date: Jul 2000
Location: Peripatetic
Posts: 10,824
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/937463...illegal-drugs/

BRITAINíS top cop has revealed she considered investigating the Tory leadership contenders for taking drugs.
ORAC is offline  
Old 26th Jun 2019, 11:58
  #8800 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Oct 2004
Location: UK
Posts: 1,998
Originally Posted by ORAC View Post
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/937463...illegal-drugs/

BRITAINíS top cop has revealed she considered investigating the Tory leadership contenders for taking drugs.
Frankly, with her and her colleagues constantly bleating about lack of resources, while knife crime, and as I read today thefts on the London Underground are mushrooming, one would have hoped the Cressida Dick (head?) might have had more pressing priorities.
ATNotts is offline  

Thread Tools
Search this Thread

Contact Us - Archive - Advertising - Cookie Policy - Privacy Statement - Terms of Service - Do Not Sell My Personal Information -

Copyright © 2018 MH Sub I, LLC dba Internet Brands. All rights reserved. Use of this site indicates your consent to the Terms of Use.