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UK Politics Hamsterwheel MkII

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UK Politics Hamsterwheel MkII

Old 21st Jun 2019, 13:47
  #8781 (permalink)  
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This one has emerged as a bit of a surprise . After all the condemnation of a certain Labour MP ( all justified I will add ) no doubt the same level of criticism will be forthcoming from the Conservatiscenti on here......there again, as it concerns money, maybe not.


Could be an interesting by election however......assuming some media outlets can find Brecon in the first place and even more so if Nige ( remember his last astounding much prophesised success?..alas, decides to get another sacrificial lamb...quite apt for that part of the UK really.....to participate.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics...avies-succeeds
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Old 21st Jun 2019, 14:32
  #8782 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Krystal n chips View Post
This one has emerged as a bit of a surprise . After all the condemnation of a certain Labour MP ( all justified I will add ) no doubt the same level of criticism will be forthcoming from the Conservatiscenti on here......there again, as it concerns money, maybe not.


Could be an interesting by election however......assuming some media outlets can find Brecon in the first place and even more so if Nige ( remember his last astounding much prophesised success?..alas, decides to get another sacrificial lamb...quite apt for that part of the UK really.....to participate.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics...avies-succeeds
If actions like these mean sitting MP's act in a more responsible manner I'm all for it.
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Old 23rd Jun 2019, 06:39
  #8783 (permalink)  
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https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/m...-day-br03hdsv9

MPs plotting to make Boris Johnson ‘PM for just one day’

Boris Johnson has been warned that he is at high risk of being prime minister for just one day as Tory MPs launched a secret plot to stop the Queen asking him to replace Theresa May.

The Conservative chief whip, Julian Smith, told Johnson campaign chiefs Gavin Williamson and James Wharton on Thursday that there was a high likelihood he would lose a vote of no confidence within 24 hours of taking the job. Smith revealed that two Tory MPs were on a “high-risk” watch list to defect from the party, destroying its majority in parliament and that a “handful” could jump ship to bring him down.

Key aides of Johnson and Jeremy Hunt were summoned to a meeting at Conservative campaign headquarters (CCHQ) on Thursday where Smith and the party chairman, Brandon Lewis, outlined plans for May to tender her resignation to the Queen after a final appearance at prime minister’s questions on Wednesday, July 24. Smith explained that Labour MPs had been placed on a “hard three-line whip” for the following day, when Jeremy Corbyn is expected to table a motion of no confidence in the new government — and warned that it could easily be lost.

Former ministers Guto Bebb and Phillip Lee are on Smith’s high-risk watch list. After the Tory MP Chris Davies was removed on Friday for expenses fraud, the Tories have a working majority of just four. If they lose next month’s Brecon and Radnorshire by-election, caused by Davies’s demise, that will go down to three — meaning just two MPs switching votes could bring Johnson down. In one “doomsday” scenario, party bosses fear Bebb, who holds another Welsh seat, could defect to the Liberal Democrats in order run in the by-election against the Tories.

Johnson is facing five plots to derail his premiership before it has even started:

● Tory MPs plan to write to May saying they will not vote for Johnson in a motion of no confidence, making it difficult for her to recommend that the Queen invites him to form a government because he will not be able to command a majority in the House of Commons.

● Dominic Grieve, the former attorney- general, yesterday confirmed that even if this does not work, a sizeable group of Tory MPs is prepared to vote with Labour to bring down the government if Johnson persists with his plan to leave the EU by October 31 come what may. He said another Tory could be summoned to the palace instead........

The most serious immediate threat is a no-confidence motion in the final week of July. The Sunday Times has spoken to several MPs involved in the plot who claim they are prepared to risk a Corbyn government to stop a no-deal Brexit. Remain-supporting MPs, including Lee, Grieve, Sam Gyimah, Richard Harrington and Antoinette Sandbach, were seen plotting in Portcullis House on Thursday afternoon.

A former minister said: “There comes a time when you believe something will be so damaging for the country that you come to the decision that the only way forward is to lie in front of the tanks.” Another former minister said he would prefer to sit as an independent than continue to represent a party that has been “taken over by extremists”.......






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Old 23rd Jun 2019, 07:52
  #8784 (permalink)  
 
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All this plotting and it is nowhere near November yet!
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Old 23rd Jun 2019, 12:27
  #8785 (permalink)  
 
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ORAC

That "Times" article serves to underline just what a divisive character Boris Johnson is, and therefore just how unsuitable he is as PM. Were he applying for a senior position in industry and produced a c.v. such as his reads, then no CEO worth his / her salt would offer him an interview, let alone give him a job.

But then we're not talking about CEOs and corporations, we're working with a bunch of people who are totally unrepresentative, many local councillors, (and we all know how generally inept they are) who are living in their own echo chamber and aren't really aware of just how dangerous he would be, not just for the party, but also for the country at large. What the UK doesn't need is a Trump clone, which I fear is what we would get were he elected.

The only crumb of comfort for the Tories is that Corbyn is the most likely alternative to a Tory PM, which makes the Labour party less likely to win an overall majority. Were Labour to have a competent, sensible leader, and shadow cabinet, they could slaughter a Boris run Tory party in a post-no-deal GE.
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Old 23rd Jun 2019, 14:02
  #8786 (permalink)  
 
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Also according to the Times, there are five possible reasons why Johnson wouldn't be PM for very long.
What happens then? Does second choice Hunt take over, or does Gove have another chance?
If no suitable candidate can be presented to HMQ, does that force a GE?
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Old 23rd Jun 2019, 14:52
  #8787 (permalink)  
 
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It must a ploy to get out of the straight jacket that the Conservatives have go themselves into over Brexit, they know they will not agree the May/EU deal, they know the EU will not change it, or entertain starting over with a new deal, they have not got what it takes to default out, therefore the only option is make a complete farce of the next PM voting that will force a GE, they know they will be out but it resolves their problem in that they will not have to honour the referendum result like they claimed they were going to do.

As far as they are concerned they will probably be quite happy for Corbyn to have a go and they can sit in opposition and be as useless as Labour is now, the Brexit party will not be able to field enough MPs to win and Lib Dems might gain some more votes, but doubt it will make a difference to their likelihood of getting into power.
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Old 23rd Jun 2019, 15:51
  #8788 (permalink)  
 
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Just for once, I'm almost looking forward to the party conferences this year. Should be fun to watch.
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Old 23rd Jun 2019, 17:55
  #8789 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Sallyann1234 View Post
Also according to the Times, there are five possible reasons why Johnson wouldn't be PM for very long.
What happens then? Does second choice Hunt take over, or does Gove have another chance?
If no suitable candidate can be presented to HMQ, does that force a GE?
The leader of a political party is a matter for that party to decide, not Parliament or the Queen. The rules by which they make this choice (eg whether democratic or not) are nobody else's business but the party itself - it's an internal matter for a private club. (So WTF it's doing on national telly, and why they broadcast it for some parties but not others, is another matter.)

The Queen will appoint as PM someone who has the confidence of Parliament. This doesn't normally need a confidence vote, it's done on the basis of someone claiming that they would win a confidence vote if anyone were to call one. Usually this is the leader of the largest party in the Commons, but it doesn't have to be.

If there are no such candidates there will be a general election.
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Old 23rd Jun 2019, 17:56
  #8790 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Sallyann1234 View Post
Just for once, I'm almost looking forward to the party conferences this year. Should be fun to watch.
Booked my place. Pity it's in Bournemouth, which is one of those places where you may wish to be a bit careful wandered around outside the conference centre wearing an EU flag T-shirt or a Bollocks to Brexit T-shirt.
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Old 23rd Jun 2019, 18:07
  #8791 (permalink)  
 
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GtW

Bournemouth is my home town. I can’t figure out why on Earth anyone there would give a hoot about your sartorial choices?!

What do you know that I don’t?

BV
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Old 23rd Jun 2019, 19:01
  #8792 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by Bob Viking View Post
Bournemouth is my home town. I can’t figure out why on Earth anyone there would give a hoot about your sartorial choices?!

What do you know that I don’t?

BV
I suspect Gertie is implying that Bournemouth is awash with vicious, fascist xenophobes, another attempt to belittle anyone whose world view fails to align with that of the Lib Dems.
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Old 23rd Jun 2019, 19:07
  #8793 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Gertrude the Wombat View Post

The Queen will appoint as PM someone who has the confidence of Parliament. This doesn't normally need a confidence vote, it's done on the basis of someone claiming that they would win a confidence vote if anyone were to call one. Usually this is the leader of the largest party in the Commons, but it doesn't have to be.

If there are no such candidates there will be a general election.
Thanks. I think that is more or less what I suggested.

It puts the Queen in an invidious position if she has to make someone PM knowing that they are likely to fail a confidence motion almost immediately. What a mess.
​​​​​
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Old 23rd Jun 2019, 19:49
  #8794 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Bob Viking View Post
What do you know that I don’t?
Got yelled at in the street last time.

Possibly I should have had more sense than to walk past a 'Spoons, but I didn't really know my way around that well.
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Old 23rd Jun 2019, 19:50
  #8795 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Harley Quinn View Post
I suspect Gertie is implying that Bournemouth is awash with vicious, fascist xenophobes
Not "awash", just one small group. But that's infinitely more than I've come across anywhere else.
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Old 24th Jun 2019, 03:19
  #8796 (permalink)  
 
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GtW

The fact that you would wish to wear such clothing and that you are willing to judge a town of 200,000 people based on the actions of a handful of people in a Wetherspoons says more about you than the populace of Bournemouth.

Sorry if it seems I’m being defensive but step back and have a think about how that sounds. It is akin to racism and prejudice. You have judged a group based on the actions of a few.

You should be ashamed of yourself.

BV

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Old 24th Jun 2019, 06:06
  #8797 (permalink)  
 
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Well said BV lib dems are good at pointing out the faults of others but never see their own.
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Old 24th Jun 2019, 07:47
  #8798 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by paulc View Post
Well said BV lib dems are good at pointing out the faults of others but never see their own.
None are so blind as those who refuse to see.
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Old 24th Jun 2019, 09:47
  #8799 (permalink)  
 
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What would happen if a general election was called, with the election held on or after 7 November. Would Brexit happen by default?
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Old 24th Jun 2019, 10:33
  #8800 (permalink)  
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Brexit date is Thursday 31st Oct. Elections are held on a Thursday, so count back from there.

An election campaign must, by law, run for at least 25 working days before the election. Counting back from there takes you to 26th September. But that is the minimum length, and therefore you can add in the additional days back to the previous Friday which would preclude an election on the preceding Thursday. That takes you to Friday 20th Sept for the dissolution of Parliament.

Prorogation takes place a few days before the dissolution of Parliament. Parliamentary activity stops at prorogation and there are then a few days of ceremonial activities. Assume prorogation takes place on Tuesday 24th September.

Assume prorogation takes place at the end of the 14 days legislated for in the Fixed Term Parliament Act after a vote of no-confidence, then the vote would take place NLT than Monday 10th September to allow a new parliament to be in place before Brexit happens.

Therefore, since no parliamentary business takes place on a Friday or Monday when MPs already in their constituencies, a vote of no confidence would have to occur before Thursday 6th September.

The HoC rises for recess between 25th July and 3rd September. The count of the Conservative party leadership election votes will be held the week beginning is expected to be announced on the 25th to allow the new leader time to appoint a new Cabinet and organise his office before facing parliament for the first time after the recess.

The window, therefore, for Labour to call for and have a vote of no confidence against Boris, if elected, to allow a new PM to ask the EU for an extension prior to Brexit is Monday 3rd to Thursday 6th September.

Last edited by ORAC; 24th Jun 2019 at 10:49.
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