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UK Politics Hamsterwheel MkII

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UK Politics Hamsterwheel MkII

Old 1st Jun 2019, 21:15
  #8481 (permalink)  
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It would be a fascinating 'live' experiment should Brexit win the majority of a 4 party race. Almost by definition they would be the lead party in any coalition and meet many JBers wish to get rid of the current lot.

You would have the spectre of a number of new Parliamentarians cast into ministerial roles from day 1. Like the last coalition there would be a number of experienced politicians but if they were in a minority party could they demand front bench seats?
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Old 1st Jun 2019, 21:19
  #8482 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by ORAC View Post
The Brexit party’s support increased by two points to 26% of the vote in the latest Opinium poll
I have seen an analysis elsewhere which claims that Opinium got the EU election dramatically wrong, over-estimating Brexit and underestimating Lib Dem by 5% - 7% each (ie lots). I haven't checked this for myself.
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Old 1st Jun 2019, 21:40
  #8483 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by Pontius Navigator View Post
It would be a fascinating 'live' experiment should Brexit win the majority of a 4 party race. Almost by definition they would be the lead party in any coalition
Don't forget that, in the event of a 'hung' vote, the incumbent party has no obligation to resign - they can remain and form a coalition as lead party.

Of course if no coalition agreement can be reached then another party might take control.
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Old 1st Jun 2019, 21:42
  #8484 (permalink)  
 
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You are absolutely correct in that. Opinium got the a Euros horribly wrong. Brexit was +6, Labour+3, Tories +3. The Liberal Democrats were -5 and Greens -5. That was a pretty remarkable result and makes you wonder if Chris Grayling is in charge of their fieldwork. These figures are available on UK Polling Report.

it is also the thirteenth stroke of the clock regarding Opiniium. I would suggest that their findings are totally unreliable.
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Old 2nd Jun 2019, 01:22
  #8485 (permalink)  
 
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PN

Re: All power tends to corrupt......... That was Lord Acton. C P Snow coined the phrase "corridors of power".
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Old 2nd Jun 2019, 07:43
  #8486 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by Barksdale Boy View Post
PN

Re: All power tends to corrupt......... That was Lord Acton. C P Snow coined the phrase "corridors of power".
TY, I should have checked, it was a long time ago.
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Old 2nd Jun 2019, 07:56
  #8487 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by G-CPTN View Post
Don't forget that, in the event of a 'hung' vote, the incumbent party has no obligation to resign - they can remain and form a coalition as lead party.

Of course if no coalition agreement can be reached then another party might take control.
True, and even try and soldier on as a minority Government. Very tiring and completely hamstrung.

I was not thinking of the last coalitions with small minority elements holding the balance of power. The DUP has a classic dilemma, keep the Con in power and win concessions, push too hard and lose any influence should the Government crash.

No, I was thinking more where many current potential ministers lose their seats to a new majority party that has no previous ministerial experience.

The dream ticket, BJ as sitting PM and NF as the new kid with a satchel full of lobby tickets. Would BJ insist he has the experience of Government and Parliamentary procedure and should remain PM, or would he concede?

It is true that opposition experience drains away the longer they have in opposition. I suppose a similar situation arose when Labour first swept to power.
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Old 2nd Jun 2019, 08:29
  #8488 (permalink)  
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Can MEPs also hold MP seats?
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Old 2nd Jun 2019, 09:34
  #8489 (permalink)  
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Enquiries & FAQs | The European Parliament | European Parliament Liaison Office in the United Kingdom

No, a European Council decision of 2002 states that "the office of MEP is incompatible with that of member of a national parliament". An MEP who is elected as an MP, or appointed a Peer, therefore has to stand down from the European Parliament.
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Old 2nd Jun 2019, 09:37
  #8490 (permalink)  
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It was kind of Trump to make this suggestion .....

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-48487973


Had he not already been preceded such, this would be so apt.....

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Old 2nd Jun 2019, 09:47
  #8491 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Barksdale Boy View Post
C P Snow coined the phrase "corridors of power".
Except he says somewhere in the preface or introduction that he nicked, or at least adapted, it from somewhere. (Sorry, CBA to go downstairs and find my copy and check just right now.)
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Old 2nd Jun 2019, 09:50
  #8492 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by ORAC View Post
No, a European Council decision of 2002 states that "the office of MEP is incompatible with that of member of a national parliament".
However you can be both an MEP and a councillor. One of our new MEPs has two council seats - people are nagging her as to when she'll resign from them, to which the (obvious) answer is "well, you tell us how long she'll have the MEP seat, and she'll tell you how long she'll keep the council seats".

Another council colleague who got appointed to the House of Lords retained her council seat until the normal elections the following May - she didn't see any need to cause the hassle and expense of an out of sequence by-election.
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Old 2nd Jun 2019, 10:39
  #8493 (permalink)  
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Wouldn't it just be easier to announce the names of Tory MP's who aren't applying for Treeza's job ??

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-48489392
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Old 2nd Jun 2019, 10:54
  #8494 (permalink)  
 
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https://www.forbes.com/sites/frances.../#3762d8f81715
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Old 2nd Jun 2019, 19:25
  #8495 (permalink)  
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Interesting article in this week’s New Statesman about the future of the two main parties - including why the chances of a “no deal” Brexit have got much higher.

In precis, after discussion of why their chances of holding seats have collapsed in present circumstances:

The Brexit party is a threat to dozens of Labour/Conservative MPs both in north and south as long as Brexit is unresolved. Their best chance of keeping their seats is removing the reason leavers might vote Brexit party and remainers might vote LibDem. That means Brexit happening before next election.

The next PM will take charge in the HoC when it resumes on 5th Sept. If you count back from 31st Oct with enough days for a general election plus a vote of no confidence etc, then there is no time to have a general election and put in place a new government to stop Brexit. The same applies to a new referendum which would take up to a year.

That only leaves the options of revoking A50 or asking for an extension.

On the expectation that a leaver wins the Conservative leadership election and doesn’t ask for an extension, and since there has, to date, never been a majority for revoking A50, all the backbencher have to do is sit tight, not vote for any back bench motion to revoke allowed by the Speaker, and wait for Brexit to happen.






Last edited by ORAC; 3rd Jun 2019 at 05:07.
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Old 3rd Jun 2019, 05:02
  #8496 (permalink)  
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Old 3rd Jun 2019, 05:05
  #8497 (permalink)  
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Aww, bless, that didn't take long now did it. Now that she's returned to politics, it's no surprise to read her regression is almost complete with her charming ideologies once more emerging.

However, she's also developed a taste for being an artiste , bit like Treeza really, so, instead of a duo, Treeza n Dave, what would be a real crowd puller, and you can only imagine the costs for police overtime due to crowd control at their performances, than forming a trio with the aforementioned two !.....

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-48491731
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Old 3rd Jun 2019, 06:44
  #8498 (permalink)  
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John Harris in The Grauniad:

”.....There are now Labour activists and polemicists who treat politics as if it were a board game, hanging on to the theories of dead Russians, and dealing in abstractions. Their rationale for maligning much of the party’s supposed base, I am told by some horrified Labour insiders, is to excise a whole chunk of the post-industrial working class from left politics, leave it to Farage and his friends, and install “networked youth” as the new vanguard of the revolution.

Where any such manoeuvre would leave Labour’s supposed mission to double down on inequality and the UK’s regional imbalances is anyone’s guess. It would also threaten to pump the left full of one of the worst prejudices of all: snobbery.........”
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Old 3rd Jun 2019, 07:19
  #8499 (permalink)  
 
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When I was a student almost fifty years ago I did Sociology as part of my course. The Marxists then advocated allowing society to degenerate to such an extent that the oppressed classes would see the light and "Rise up as one against their class oppressors".

Corbyn hasnt changed his views one jot in that time. He sees a hard Brexit as part of that ongoing process towards creating the revolution that he has worked towards over that period, the disruption and the fall in living standards that it is now universally accepted will accompany a NoDeal exit will hit the Brexit voting classes disproportionately. It is then envisaged that conditions will be right for the Socialist revolution. We live in interesting times indeed.
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Old 3rd Jun 2019, 07:23
  #8500 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by ORAC View Post
John Harris in The Grauniad:

”.....There are now Labour activists and polemicists who treat politics as if it were a board game, hanging on to the theories of dead Russians, and dealing in abstractions. Their rationale for maligning much of the party’s supposed base, I am told by some horrified Labour insiders, is to excise a whole chunk of the post-industrial working class from left politics, leave it to Farage and his friends, and install “networked youth” as the new vanguard of the revolution.

Where any such manoeuvre would leave Labour’s supposed mission to double down on inequality and the UK’s regional imbalances is anyone’s guess. It would also threaten to pump the left full of one of the worst prejudices of all: snobbery.........”
Tsk ! ORAC... sadly, a mere 4/10 for your, ahem, selective editing skills.

The full article makes for a far more compelling and expansive read.......

https://www.theguardian.com/commenti...xit-tribal-war
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