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UK Politics Hamsterwheel MkII

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UK Politics Hamsterwheel MkII

Old 27th May 2019, 20:52
  #8341 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Gertrude the Wombat View Post
Brexit votes down from 17.4m to a little over 5m.

Rather fewer than the 6m who signed a petition to #RevokeA50.
That's disingenuous,as well you know. I would have expected better. Signing a petition is not the same as voting in any way shape or form, and isn't even regulated by the same laws. How many people cast votes on Thursday solely in support of remaining in the EU?

The only votes we can be near-certain were cast in support of Remain were those for Change UK, as they seem to be the only single-issue Remain party that are comparable to the single-issue Brexit Party and UKIP. Being generous we could assume that all those who voted LibDem may also have been Remain supporters, but then again some may be people (like me) who happen to support all the policies put forward by the LibDems except remaining in the EU (and I didn't vote for either of the two Brexit supporting parties).
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Old 27th May 2019, 20:59
  #8342 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by VP959 View Post
The only votes we can be near-certain were cast in support of Remain were those for Change UK, as they seem to be the only single-issue Remain party
ROFLMAO

If Change UK are a single issue party, the single issue must be the one and only policy they've actually published - their "how we're going to destroy the Lib Dems" strategy paper. That worked well, didn't it!
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Old 27th May 2019, 21:01
  #8343 (permalink)  
 
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Barry Gardiner on Ch4 News stated that it was official party policy for Ref2. I can't imagine it wasn't cleared with the Corbster. Mark Francois "The Fat Owl of The Remove" found it very funny.
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Old 27th May 2019, 21:04
  #8344 (permalink)  
 
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VP959

With a campaign slogan of "Bollox to Brexit" I am slightly puzzled as to how on earth you could not think that a vote for the Lib Dems was not a vote to remain?
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Old 27th May 2019, 22:46
  #8345 (permalink)  
 
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The "problem" with democracy is that it works reasonably well when the result is 80/20 or 70/30, but 52/48? then it gets a whole lot more problematical. Then, viewpoints become increasingly polarised and entrenched, as a result of the well known psychological principle known as the "wisdom of crowds". Looking at the split of votes between pro leave and remain parties in the Euro elections it seems the electorate are still pretty much half and half.
As much as I DESPISE 98% of all professional politicians (and that includes local councillors claiming "expenses") right now lets have a look at the boy Nigel. Thirty years ago he was archetypal "Tory boy", very keen indeed to climb the greasy pole in the Conservative party. For whatever reason however that didn't happen, perhaps the wrong era for his "talents" or just an insatiable need to be the top dog perhaps?
So our "people's hero" quits the "big C's" and joins the embryonic UKIP which he slowly but surely turns into the Farage fan club using his unctuous rhetoric, attracting people in the same way as many religions do... the need to believe in "something better" yet very vague and devoid of detail as to how that something better will actually happen.... Some say he's not interested in leaving the EU at all, but just wants to stick it to the Conservatives, revenge of sorts for not annointing him as the "special one" when they had the chance....
Our selfless hero then gets himself elected to the European parliament, an organisation he professes to despise and calls undemocratic, yet his election is the result of proportional representation, the most democratic form of election known... He has been there for 22 years, taking a generous salary and accruing a generous pension. Just remember he did it for you, the "ordinary people".... What has he achieved, apart from rabble rousing?
He loves attention, & with a good salary to boot, he's laughing.
The next chapter in the story, Nige's rhetorical smarm works way too well, and attracts, amongst others, disaffected Tories to UKIP. A good many closet racists, bigots, shifty wheeler dealer, barrow boy business types and retiree's whose grasp of reality dimimishes exponentially with the length of their retirement and the size of their pension....
Upper upper upper middle class Dave realises this and despite them being in his words "swivel eyed loons" he knows the nutter and fossil vote is key to Conservative electoral success. So he fails at negotiation (all Conservatives do, threats are their natural game & the EU don't play that game) and pitches a referendum to settle the issue once and for all.... Oh dear.....
Some in UKIP inevitably start challenging Nigels position as supreme god/leader, both before and after his disingenuous simplistic rhetoric undoubtedly stole the hearts and minds of many referendum voters. So, he's then off into "retirement"? Not likely, he needs attention, remember? So, he's back, like one of those salesman that once you buy from, they never leave you alone. "You bought it once, whats not to like? buy it again..."
So, to a solution> Well, this is such an intractable issue now that I would suggest partition. There are many here that seem to think that the UK still has, or should have an empire. So they couldn't disagree with that? The true British solution is to divide those that cannot agree, Palestine and India are the examples. It's just as viable as Brexit. Anythings possible if you just wish it so, yes? Nigel has told us! So, divide England (including Wales) equally in area, north to south, all those who want a Europe free life go live in the western half (ironically it could be called New England) and all those that wish to remain in the EU move to the eastern half (nearer the continent you see). You won't need a wall, because Nigel can magically activate article 24 unilaterally! Then the god-king can have the coronation he so clearly craves. Perhaps at Glastonbury, the new "capital of free England" and maybe Widdecombe could be the new high priestess and anoint him? yuck.....

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Old 27th May 2019, 23:20
  #8346 (permalink)  
 
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I was somewhat surprised to hear on the news that Tom Watson was saying there needs to be a 2nd referendum.
Then I heard him speaking about it and he wasn't saying that at all. He was advocating a referendum to seek public approval/disapproval on any deal the government may make with the EU. In other words, if May had managed to get one of her failed attempts at getting a deal through the Commons, then Watson is saying that is what the referendum should be on. Not a new Leave or Remain referendum. For months now the media have been reporting on this thinking (from members of all parties) in such a way as to leave the impression that various politicians want the original referendum result to be consigned to the bin and to "have another go". I am sure there are members of all parties who would love to see this happen but in the case of Tom Watson this is not the case at all.
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Old 27th May 2019, 23:23
  #8347 (permalink)  
 
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The more I hear Corbyns people's vote, the more I feel he isn't talking about a second referendum but more about an election, hence he is squirming around not saying a referendum or committing to one.
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Old 28th May 2019, 05:11
  #8348 (permalink)  
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It's always sad when politicians make tantalising and inspirational statements, such as Boris and lying down in front of a bulldozer for example, but subsequently find themselves unable to carry out these statements.

Thankfully, and "The Long March " ( UK version ) offered us even more clarity as to Nige and his leadership capabilities, due to the results, presumably he now won't have to storm ashore at some desolate beach on mainland Europe and valiantly assault Brussels with a .303 Lee Enfield .

There again, this is classic Farage. All wind and water ....mostly wind in the form of verbal flatulence alternating with the more usual source and location.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/u...-a7741331.html

https://www.theguardian.com/politics...exposed-sketch

Last edited by Krystal n chips; 28th May 2019 at 06:08.
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Old 28th May 2019, 05:45
  #8349 (permalink)  
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Very interesting polling from Lord Ashcroft. Worth reading in detail.

Support for No Deal seems very low amongst remaining Conservative supporters, which might impact the leadership contest.

For all the pseudology above, the leave/remain division is on a knife edge - with leave slightly ahead. So those desperate to stay should be wary of another referendum. (Though I note twitter yesterday there is an increasing movement to ensure that the option of “leave” is excluded as it, apparently is impossible and just confuses simple voters...)

And most voters seem inclined, at the moment, to stay with their new parties at the next general,election.

https://www.conservativehome.com/pla...-election.html

“Overall, 89 per cent of Euro-election voters who voted Leave still want Brexit to happen – 55 per cent of them with no deal – and seven per cent now say they want to remain. Meanwhile, 81 per cent of Remainers who voted last week say they still want to remain, with 15 per cent now saying the best outcome would be to leave. Among all those voting in the European elections, 50 per cent said they had voted to Remain in the referendum and 45 per cent to Leave; now, 50 per cent said they wanted to leave, 46 per cent said they wanted to remain, and 4 per cent didn’t know.

Only one in three (32 per cent) of 2017 Tories who switched to the Brexit Party said they would come home at the next general election; 52 per cent currently say they will stay with the Brexit Party. Conservatives who switched to the Lib Dems say they are even more likely to stay put: 61 per cent now say they will vote Lib Dem again at the general election, with only 22 per cent saying they expect to return to the Tories. Overall, only 43 per cent of 2017 Conservative voters who turned out in the European elections say they will vote Tory at the next general election.

Half of Labour-Brexit Party switchers said they expected to stay with their new party at the next general election, with only just a quarter saying they expect to go back to Labour. Just over half (51 per cent) of Labour-Lib Dem switchers currently say they will stay with the Lib Dems. Just over half (56 per cent) of 2017 Labour voters say they will back Jeremy Corbyn’s party for Westminster.”

Reference voting intentions - do not confuse percentages with votes. Greens would still probably only get one seat and Brexit would, as with UKIP, or the SDP back in the 1980s, get only a handful. The party which might resurge are the LibDems, the caveat on that being how the vote was distributed. If concentrated in their old heartlands such as the South-West it could mean a lot of seats, if spread evenly far less.

The LibDem/Labour vs Brexit/Conservative vote split, regardless, also seems on a knife edge - the country seeming still hopelessly divided with an election likely to not provide a majority or a solution.








Last edited by ORAC; 28th May 2019 at 05:56.
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Old 28th May 2019, 05:50
  #8350 (permalink)  
 
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@PJ. But Brexit would get all the best beaches, how is that fair?
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Old 28th May 2019, 06:41
  #8351 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by Gertrude the Wombat View Post
The other interesting number is that there were more people voting for the #RevokeA50 petition than voting for the #Brexshit Party.
Which was not a one day exercise and did not involve driving to a polling station in the next village.

While I noticed one polling represented just 87 electors - over 4/head per elector - another group of over 100 had no nearby polling station. Not big numbers but indicative that the universal franchise is not universally accessible.

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Old 28th May 2019, 07:20
  #8352 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by VP959 View Post
I can't see it, personally. We had well-produced flyers from Change UK, UKIP and from Labour, yet no one seems to be accusing them of cheating. Is this view that the Brexit Party have cheated simply sour grapes because you'd have rather seen them crash and burn? (just to be absolutely clear I did not vote for them, neither did I vote for UKIP)
I am going purely on what I saw in the East and West Midlands region. Brexit Party seemingly having a lot more money to spend on promoting their cause. In neither area did I see a single leaflet or post from Change UK, the Tory's (who appeared to have a policy of not really fighting the election at all!) or UKIP. The LibDems sent a letter, ditto Labour (don't know how I got on Corbyn's database!!) but the Brexit party had numerous signs in gardens, people's windows, and several leaflets. Stuff like design of logos, printing, logistics and the like all cost money.

It could be that Change had decided to leave the EM remain vote to the LibDems, but if so it would appear they adopted a similar policy elsewhere!
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Old 28th May 2019, 07:47
  #8353 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by ATNotts View Post
I am going purely on what I saw in the East and West Midlands region. Brexit Party seemingly having a lot more money to spend on promoting their cause. In neither area did I see a single leaflet or post from Change UK, the Tory's (who appeared to have a policy of not really fighting the election at all!) or UKIP. The LibDems sent a letter, ditto Labour (don't know how I got on Corbyn's database!!) but the Brexit party had numerous signs in gardens, people's windows, and several leaflets. Stuff like design of logos, printing, logistics and the like all cost money.

It could be that Change had decided to leave the EM remain vote to the LibDems, but if so it would appear they adopted a similar policy elsewhere!

In contrast to which, and I don't dispute your lack of leaflets for one minute, I got a smirking fizzog one from Nige, one from UKIP and one from the Tories !.....all personally addressed as well !...

However, since you mention money and funding, there's still the little matter outstanding as to from whence Nige obtained his. Despite protestations that the newly converted had paid 25, something to do with an online payment organisation was mentioned along with a few questions about a previous benefactor and other sources.

Nige has been suitably dismissive about these scurrilous claims and questions.......for now .

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Old 28th May 2019, 07:58
  #8354 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by funfly View Post
As a staunch Remainer, I now have a dilemma;
Across Europe the EU parliament vote seems to have been a reaction to the various governments rather than who we feel should be the representatives to control European policy.
The result is a prominence of 'token' parties few of whom have any policies about future economic strategy. All in all a lot of tree huggers.
So is this the Europe that I so strongly wanted to be a member of? Is this the range of people and policies that can decide the future of the Europe that I wanted to be a part of?
Whether we like it or not, the political landscape has changed. People are being turned off the large parties and are voting for smaller groups who they feel accurately reflect their views.
The big Ger/Fra partnership is slowly breaking down.
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Old 28th May 2019, 08:13
  #8355 (permalink)  
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ATNotts, we are near you and had Con, Lab, TBH, UKIP. The latter addressed by name. If anyone had unexplained wealth of wasn't the first 3. No posters, billboards or anything except Leaflets in our area.

I know the Con leaflet was door to door and UKIP a mail shot. Not sure about the other two.
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Old 28th May 2019, 09:10
  #8356 (permalink)  
 
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The Ashcroft polling is worthy of further analysis. It appears to show both that those who remained loyal to the two main parties were generally not Leave. This is exactly what you would expect. Given the batty old fossil Widdecombe's explanation that Brexit were the clear message party then I would say that cuts both ways and, by her own implication, suggests that any other vote (UKIP aside) was not pro Brexit.

Furthermore his poll backs up my own feeling that, after 49 years of voting Labour, having made the shift to LD and seeing potentially loonies in charge of both main parties, why on earth would I switch back?
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Old 28th May 2019, 09:39
  #8357 (permalink)  
 
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More garbage from the BBC

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-48403131





It says nothing on that about voters might actually have been voting on other issues for the remain parties, economy, climate change, polution, plastics etc, you cannot simply clump them all together and say, this amount voted remain because you do not know that, nor do you know how many actually did..
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Old 28th May 2019, 09:43
  #8358 (permalink)  
 
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Which all comes back to the same thing
Herr Farage LOST and seeing as his party is now part of the EU structure they are on the opposite side to the Britain they claim to represent

He will never ever get as big a vote again because so much of this was anti parliament as much as anti gov protest and the remain camp when added up in any logical way (i know thats the wrong word for this issue) and he basically got all the UKIP support to switch to him (no right wing element in Brexit party ha ha) and the same group of disaffected, understandably so Tory and labour supporters.

On the other hand you do have to deal with the blind stupid ignorance issue as illustrated on a chat show today--'I voted Brexit because the EU has cut back our police force'
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Old 28th May 2019, 09:58
  #8359 (permalink)  
 
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Nut Loose

If anything the BBC has understated the "remain" vote - insofar as they have ignored Sinn Fein and the NI Alliance party.

Of course you can't say with any accuracy what motivated voters for any party, be it environment, Brexit, employment, the church you go to on Sunday - or simply a conscious decision to kick the two major parties in the nuts, although the latter is a very poor reason for deciding which way to vote on something rather more important than "The X Factor"!

It does however appear likely that most people plumped for the Brexit party because they want Brexit (it's in the name really) and it is likely that many voters for the "remain" leaning parties would have been because they don't want to leave the EU at all. It isn't an exact science, but it does give Tory members food for thought when choosing the next PM; and Labour a lot to think about when deciding which of the two horses they are currently astride to send to the knacker's yard.
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Old 28th May 2019, 10:03
  #8360 (permalink)  
 
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On the other hand you do have to deal with the blind stupid ignorance issue as illustrated on a chat show today--'I voted Brexit because the EU has cut back our police force'
Not a great advert for universal suffrage that!! I've oft thought that you should be required to take a political awareness test before being awarded your polling card; perhaps it's not such a bad idea.
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