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UK Politics Hamsterwheel MkII

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UK Politics Hamsterwheel MkII

Old 19th May 2019, 18:45
  #8061 (permalink)  
 
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It could well happen. Dominic Grieve on Newsnight last week when questioned about Boris becoming PM issued a pretty clear threat that he would support a no confidence motion should he try to push a NoDeal through. Bear in mind that with the three Change defectors their position is already precarious..
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Old 19th May 2019, 19:10
  #8062 (permalink)  
 
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What happens if the EU do finally have enough and tell the UK that if they do not sign ‘the deal’ before whatever deadline they choose is now right for them to say enough is enough and state that the UK is in default of Article 50, no more extensions will be permitted so has to leave, there is not a damn thing the UK can do about it other than sign or default out under WTO rule.

I know the EU will never do that as they wish to retain their UK income and they will take the same stance, or even worse, about not renegotiating a deal, regardless of who is in charge in Westminster.

Last edited by Exrigger; 19th May 2019 at 19:30.
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Old 19th May 2019, 20:06
  #8063 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Effluent Man View Post
If a GE returned figures like that the vagaries of FPTP would make it an absolute lottery.
I've seen an analysis which says that that would result in

LD: lots of seats
BP: a small handful of seats

which just shows how wonderful FPTP is.
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Old 19th May 2019, 20:08
  #8064 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Exrigger View Post
What happens if the EU do finally have enough and tell the UK that if they do not sign ‘the deal’ before whatever deadline they choose is now right for them to say enough is enough and state that the UK is in default of Article 50, no more extensions will be permitted so has to leave, there is not a damn thing the UK can do about it other than sign or default out under WTO rule.
We've heard "no more extensions" from some players. If they're serious then on October 31 we have one of:

(1) an agreed deal
(2) a no deal crash out
(3) revoke A50

of which (1) or (3) could happen earlier. So, because of the risk of (1), still not booking any holidays.
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Old 19th May 2019, 22:33
  #8065 (permalink)  
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1. An agreed deal that would provide European and British stability is now impossible in this most bilious of situations which has been so distinguished by the lies and dishonour on all sides and in nearly all individuals involved.
3. A revocation of Article 50 would mark the culmination of utter international humiliation. It would ruin the reputation of the country for years to come and the, combined with the punitive taxation at both corporate and private levels of a Marxist government will ensure that no one would trust good old Blighty for many a year to come.
2. There is no no deal crash out. There is no need to scarify the business to hand.ayou just fix the paperwork and walk away. That's what men do in. business when they can't agree on something. The deal didn't go down is both a dismissal and an invitation to look at another,
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Old 19th May 2019, 23:32
  #8066 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by cavortingcheetah View Post
1. An agreed deal that would provide European and British stability is now impossible in this most bilious of situations which has been so distinguished by the lies and dishonour on all sides and in nearly all individuals involved.
3. A revocation of Article 50 would mark the culmination of utter international humiliation. It would ruin the reputation of the country for years to come and the, combined with the punitive taxation at both corporate and private levels of a Marxist government will ensure that no one would trust good old Blighty for many a year to come.
2. There is no no deal crash out. There is no need to scarify the business to hand.ayou just fix the paperwork and walk away. That's what men do in. business when they can't agree on something. The deal didn't go down is both a dismissal and an invitation to look at another,
I think, Mr Cheetah, undoubtedly you are correct in your assessment of the consequences flowing from a Marxist government. Few of any intellectual capacity would see things differently but it seems to me that we are living in a strange vacuum where normal considerations are rejected and the tenets by which we have lived for centuries are discarded. Lewis Carroll would be in his element here!

1. Thanks to the manner in which the staggeringly incompetent Prime Minister and her supporting coterie of cardboard cut-outs handled the exit process, any worthwhile deal always was an impossibility. Currently, the only means of achieving anything like a position of advantage to the UK is to walk away, adopt WTO and from that properly defined position, seek to negotiate with Brussels.
3. The revocation of Article 50 would indeed represent a self-inflicted national humiliation of incalculable consequences. 31/2 years ago, I would not have been able to conceive such a ridiculous and seemingly impossible position. Now, given the totality of absolute bloody uselessness and venality of those purporting to represent the electorate, I can see this outcome as entirely plausible.
2. The "deal" has never been part of the deal. It is a device confected by the establishment to thwart the referendum conclusion and has been used to great effect by those mentioned in 2 above.

It is facile to write off Farage and the Brexit party as a convenient depository of the disaffected. This fails to acknowledge the raging anger felt by the populace at large and the reasons for it. Obviously, Brexit is at the heart of the new party's appeal but additionally, and to a very large extent, those intending to support the Farage faction regard the Houses of Parliament as today's equivalent of the Augean stables; both parliamentary institutions being full of excrement and urgently in need of a damned good clear-out. Nigel Farage may be no Hercules but he's the nearest we've got.

Last edited by Gipsy Queen; 21st May 2019 at 13:42.
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Old 20th May 2019, 05:59
  #8067 (permalink)  
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Yep, it's that old multiple occupancy conundrum again........

https://www.theguardian.com/commenti...hority-cartoon
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Old 20th May 2019, 06:55
  #8068 (permalink)  
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POLITICO:

STOP ME IF YOU’VE HEARD THIS ONE BEFORE: British and American political journalists may feel a twinge of deja vu when reading
from 7 News’ political reporter Jennifer Bechwati, who did not see Saturday’s shock election victory for the right-wing Coalition coming at all.

“My mea culpa,” she wrote. “Polls are useless … The majority of Australians don’t back further action on climate change — or major tax reform … Twitter is not representative of the wider Australian view … Always listen to family and friends outside of Canberra” …

Any of this sound familiar at all?
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Old 20th May 2019, 07:54
  #8069 (permalink)  
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What exactly would happen if nothing has happened on 31 Oct?

Do all ports stop? Do all aircraft return to take off airfield? Do we have the military and police on both sides preventing commerce?

Essentially we have two trading blocks being interfered with by two political blocks.

If the EU see that we have not signed nothing to implement a no deal nothing changes to nothing happens.

As said above, all about money. As long as we honour our agreements to pay, why should they care?
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Old 20th May 2019, 13:37
  #8070 (permalink)  
 
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Now Our Nige is milking it...

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknew...cid=spartandhp

Paul Crowther, 32, from Throckley, Newcastle, said it was a £5.25 Five Guys banana and salted caramel milkshake.
Yummy
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Old 20th May 2019, 14:08
  #8071 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Effluent Man View Post
It could well happen. Dominic Grieve on Newsnight last week when questioned about Boris becoming PM issued a pretty clear threat that he would support a no confidence motion should he try to push a NoDeal through. Bear in mind that with the three Change defectors their position is already precarious..
Change have said that they won't support a VoNC as have the Lib Dems; in the latter's case until Corbyn comes out unequivocally for a second referendum.

Without those two on board, the votes for a VoNC are limited to 286 (Lab + SNP + PC + Gr). Despite the posturing, I doubt if many Conservatives would back a VoNC if a Corbyn government is on the cards. Even if they did a GE needs 60% support.
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Old 20th May 2019, 19:03
  #8072 (permalink)  
 
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We are in uncharted territory now. If as expected the next Tory leader is a NoDeal Leaver then I think that anything could happen. There are politicians out there prepared to sacrifice their careers to prevent such an outcome so, all bets are off.
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Old 20th May 2019, 20:21
  #8073 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Effluent Man View Post
We are in uncharted territory now. If as expected the next Tory leader is a NoDeal Leaver then I think that anything could happen. There are politicians out there prepared to sacrifice their careers to prevent such an outcome so, all bets are off.
So that would leave the Westminster shower with two options;

A. Sign off the May/EU deal.
B. Revoke Article 50.

What happens next if the May/EU deal is rejected again and revoking Article 50 is also currently not an accepted/agreed option either, surely that only leaves the option they don’t want and if the EU do not extend again, I know they will as they are happy to continue to receive the UK payments, then the UK will have no legal grounds for not leaving into WTO rules as they will be in default of Article 50, so committing political suicide would not change that outcome.

I also reckon that whoever is in charge will not make any difference to the current status of Brexit within Westminster while the current incumbents are still able to vote in the HoC’s.
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Old 20th May 2019, 20:41
  #8074 (permalink)  
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https://www.itv.com/news/wales/2019-...umph-in-wales/




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Old 20th May 2019, 21:04
  #8075 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Doors to Automatic View Post
Change have said that they won't support a VoNC as have the Lib Dems; in the latter's case until Corbyn comes out unequivocally for a second referendum.

Without those two on board, the votes for a VoNC are limited to 286 (Lab + SNP + PC + Gr). Despite the posturing, I doubt if many Conservatives would back a VoNC if a Corbyn government is on the cards. Even if they did a GE needs 60% support.
Change and the LibDems want the Tory rank and file to fall into the trap of electing an extreme Brexiteer as leader, who will chuck the country off the cliff with no deal, then (from their perspective) hoover up votes in the general election that will surely follow not long after. The trap is pretty well set, the Conservative membership will more than likely fall into it. Whether the consequences turn out to be as they hope remains to be seen.
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Old 20th May 2019, 21:23
  #8076 (permalink)  
 
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I think that probably is the plan, and as you say it appears to be working. I intend voting LD for the first time ever on Thursday and I have lifelong Tory voting friends who are doing the same.
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Old 20th May 2019, 21:35
  #8077 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Effluent Man View Post
I think that probably is the plan, and as you say it appears to be working. I intend voting LD for the first time ever on Thursday and I have lifelong Tory voting friends who are doing the same.
I will be voting either Change or LD - probably the latter, although going forward I feel my home is probably closer to Change. What's important is that the remain leaning members of the electorate turn out and vote, as sure as hell committed Brexiteers will. It will play very bad on the remain side if in percentage terms they fall well behind the Brexit and UKIP vote - it takes much of the wind out of the rescind Art.50 or new referendum arguments if it does.
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Old 20th May 2019, 21:58
  #8078 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by ATNotts View Post
The trap is pretty well set, the Conservative membership will more than likely fall into it. Whether the consequences turn out to be as they hope remains to be seen.
Do the Conservatives still hope? I fear that the behaviour of the party and government which, traditionally, they have trusted and supported has acted in such a dishonest and deceitful manner that they are ashamed to be associated with it and no longer will subscribe to this delinquent assembly. Hell, even arch-Tory Heseltine claims to prefer the Lib Dems (although he may not be a good demonstration of my point since the value of his so-called loyalty was demonstrated years ago). With that lack of faith comes a loss of hope - the EU elections will be largely un-fought by the Conservative party, recognising that ignoring the event might prove less embarrassing than fighting and spectacularly losing. Since there is little prospect of reconstructing the party as a truly Conservative entity and regaining a national credibility, hope will remain in very short supply indeed. I predict the most frightful drubbing by the Brexit party; the Conservatives have no-one to blame other than themselves. But will they learn? This too remains to be seen. I'm anything but sanguine.

Lord North often is quoted as the "worst" Prime Minister in British political history - he lost us the North American colonies. I nominate Theresa May for that shameful honour; she is bent upon losing us our own nationhood - an infinitely more heinous crime..
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Old 21st May 2019, 04:44
  #8079 (permalink)  
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TM is clinging on to No 10 like a limpet.....
https://www.politicshome.com/news/uk...may-face-fresh

Theresa May to face fresh attempt to oust her despite Brexit truce

Senior Tories will consider a fresh attempt to change party rules in a bid to boot Theresa May out of office more easily, PoliticsHome can reveal.

A meeting of the executive of the 1922 Committee of Tory backbenchers will hear calls for the Prime Minister to face a fresh confidence vote next month.

Mrs May has said that the Withdrawal Agreement Bill - the legislation needed to take the UK out of the EU - must be passed before Parliament's summer recess at the end of July.

The draft legislation will be put to a Commons vote in the first week of June, and Mrs May has agreed to set out when she will stand down if it is defeated. However, some MPs are concerned she could take the extraordinary step of cancelling the summer recess to buy herself more time to get it through.

Under current rules, a Tory leader cannot face a vote of no confidence more than once a year, which means MRs May cannot be challenged again until December. An attempt to reduce that to six months was defeated 9-7 at a meeting of the 1922 Committee executive last month. Now one member of the executive has revealed they will call for another vote on the proposal when they meet again on Wednesday.

The MP said: "The big fear is she might try to cancel the summer recess in order to get Brexit through. The suggestion was mentioned at the last meeting and some people were nodding their heads. That would be catastrophic. We cannot wait another half year if she tries to stay on.".......

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Old 21st May 2019, 05:19
  #8080 (permalink)  
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https://www.theargus.co.uk/news/1765...in-south-east/

Brexit party surges ahead of rivals in south east

NIGEL Farage’s Brexit Party has almost double the support of its nearest rival in the South East, a new poll shows.

The group has 37 per cent of the vote share compared with the Lib Dems’ 21 per cent. This is higher than the national support for the Brexit Party which sits at 34 per cent.

The Conservatives and Labour are languishing on 11 and 10 per cent respectively......... Other parties in the South East are the Greens with 11 per cent of the vote, the newly formed Change UK with 5 per cent and Farage’s former party Ukip with 3 per cent.

Anti-Brexit campaign group Best For Britain commissioned the study of voters alongside Hope Not Hate. A total of 9,260 voters were surveyed, including 1,308 from the South East.

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