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UK Politics Hamsterwheel MkII

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UK Politics Hamsterwheel MkII

Old 18th May 2019, 18:17
  #8061 (permalink)  
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Old 18th May 2019, 21:32
  #8062 (permalink)  
 
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Still supports my hypothesis of Brexit+UKIP+ 75% Tory = 45%

LD + Green + Change + 75% Labour. The 7% other will be SNP + Minor Irish Parties + Plaid, so once again 75%
​​​​​​​ Remain= 52%
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Old 18th May 2019, 21:52
  #8063 (permalink)  
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Old 18th May 2019, 22:02
  #8064 (permalink)  
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Please forgive me for saying so but if the same logic were applied to those 52% as was previously applied to the 52% by the 48% then the vote of the 52% may be utterly ignored being nothing other than the demented selection of a bunch of isosceles, bigoted, uneducated country bumpkins.

In other words, if it never mattered how many originally voted to leave then why on earth should it matter now how many voted to remain and ain't that a parliamentary and political paradox?

Last edited by cavortingcheetah; 18th May 2019 at 22:19.
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Old 18th May 2019, 22:02
  #8065 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by ORAC View Post
I was going to say something very similar. All these polls of polls prove to me is that voting intent regards Brexit has changed very little in the last 3 years. Certainly nothing near a magnitude of change that makes it politically or morally acceptable to put us all through another referendum, when we haven't yet acted on the last one!
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Old 19th May 2019, 09:43
  #8066 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Effluent Man View Post
Still supports my hypothesis of Brexit+UKIP+ 75% Tory = 45%

LD + Green + Change + 75% Labour. The 7% other will be SNP + Minor Irish Parties + Plaid, so once again 75%
​​​​​​​ Remain= 52%
EM: With regard your figures a more accurate summation using your logic could be considered as being:

Brexit + UKIP + 75% Tory + 25% Labour + 25% other = 51%

LD + Green + Change + 75% Labour + 25% Conservative + 75% other ​​= 49%
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Old 19th May 2019, 16:28
  #8067 (permalink)  
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Forget Boris as next PM, if the polls keep moving at this rate it will be Farage......

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Old 19th May 2019, 17:31
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If a GE returned figures like that the vagaries of FPTP would make it an absolute lottery. The only rider I would add is that Brexit would most likely do significantly worse that it's percentage figure might suggest simply because they have no established seats to defend. They would fail to benefit from any kind of tactical vote. The big winners there would likely be the Lib Dems with Labour, and possibly some Tory Remainers being prepared to support them against the other big two party where the seat was held by that party.

I think that we may well be likely to on the brink of an LD breakthrough this week. We were out to dinner last night with friends who always vote Tory. Talked turned to the imminent elections and all four agreed that our votes will be heading LD wards.
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Old 19th May 2019, 18:09
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Could the Lib Dems actually win the next GE, it would have to be one heck of a remain voters change of allegiance to achieve that, or the usual non-voters decided to actually turn up and vote for them, I doubt it would be a substantial win even if it was feasible, one would assume that it would be on a revoke Article 50 manifesto.

How would they get anything passed by the rest of the crowd in Westminster, if they have major opposition from the rest of Westminster it would mean the Brexit position would be in exactly the same as it is now, nowhere.
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Old 19th May 2019, 18:33
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The danger for the big parties is the "Bandwagon Effect". We saw it in 2010 with Cleggmania and the LD 's came awfully close to a major breakthrough. It's happening with Farage right now, but unfortunately for him it's come in an election where the outcome isn't really important in terms of their ability to actually do anything other than go to Brussels and stamp their feet.
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Old 19th May 2019, 18:35
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You think there is going to be a general election this side of the latest EU deadline?
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Old 19th May 2019, 18:44
  #8072 (permalink)  
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Before we get too excited on the prediction, factor in SNP and PC and DUP is variable too.
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Old 19th May 2019, 18:45
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Originally Posted by yellowtriumph View Post
You think there is going to be a general election this side of the latest EU deadline?
Which deadline ? if you mean the current one, highly unlikely, if you mean before any of the future deadlines then I don't know. I can still see Brexit being kicked down the road until there is a GE, even to when the next one is due in 2022..

The EU will be quite amenable to keep allowing extensions as they will continue to get the UK payments, so they will be happy with the status quo, especially as we are told that Brexit is not affecting them, only the UK.
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Old 19th May 2019, 18:45
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It could well happen. Dominic Grieve on Newsnight last week when questioned about Boris becoming PM issued a pretty clear threat that he would support a no confidence motion should he try to push a NoDeal through. Bear in mind that with the three Change defectors their position is already precarious..
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Old 19th May 2019, 19:10
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What happens if the EU do finally have enough and tell the UK that if they do not sign ‘the deal’ before whatever deadline they choose is now right for them to say enough is enough and state that the UK is in default of Article 50, no more extensions will be permitted so has to leave, there is not a damn thing the UK can do about it other than sign or default out under WTO rule.

I know the EU will never do that as they wish to retain their UK income and they will take the same stance, or even worse, about not renegotiating a deal, regardless of who is in charge in Westminster.

Last edited by Exrigger; 19th May 2019 at 19:30.
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Old 19th May 2019, 20:06
  #8076 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Effluent Man View Post
If a GE returned figures like that the vagaries of FPTP would make it an absolute lottery.
I've seen an analysis which says that that would result in

LD: lots of seats
BP: a small handful of seats

which just shows how wonderful FPTP is.
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Old 19th May 2019, 20:08
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Originally Posted by Exrigger View Post
What happens if the EU do finally have enough and tell the UK that if they do not sign ‘the deal’ before whatever deadline they choose is now right for them to say enough is enough and state that the UK is in default of Article 50, no more extensions will be permitted so has to leave, there is not a damn thing the UK can do about it other than sign or default out under WTO rule.
We've heard "no more extensions" from some players. If they're serious then on October 31 we have one of:

(1) an agreed deal
(2) a no deal crash out
(3) revoke A50

of which (1) or (3) could happen earlier. So, because of the risk of (1), still not booking any holidays.
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Old 19th May 2019, 22:33
  #8078 (permalink)  
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1. An agreed deal that would provide European and British stability is now impossible in this most bilious of situations which has been so distinguished by the lies and dishonour on all sides and in nearly all individuals involved.
3. A revocation of Article 50 would mark the culmination of utter international humiliation. It would ruin the reputation of the country for years to come and the, combined with the punitive taxation at both corporate and private levels of a Marxist government will ensure that no one would trust good old Blighty for many a year to come.
2. There is no no deal crash out. There is no need to scarify the business to hand.ayou just fix the paperwork and walk away. That's what men do in. business when they can't agree on something. The deal didn't go down is both a dismissal and an invitation to look at another,
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Old 19th May 2019, 23:32
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Originally Posted by cavortingcheetah View Post
1. An agreed deal that would provide European and British stability is now impossible in this most bilious of situations which has been so distinguished by the lies and dishonour on all sides and in nearly all individuals involved.
3. A revocation of Article 50 would mark the culmination of utter international humiliation. It would ruin the reputation of the country for years to come and the, combined with the punitive taxation at both corporate and private levels of a Marxist government will ensure that no one would trust good old Blighty for many a year to come.
2. There is no no deal crash out. There is no need to scarify the business to hand.ayou just fix the paperwork and walk away. That's what men do in. business when they can't agree on something. The deal didn't go down is both a dismissal and an invitation to look at another,
I think, Mr Cheetah, undoubtedly you are correct in your assessment of the consequences flowing from a Marxist government. Few of any intellectual capacity would see things differently but it seems to me that we are living in a strange vacuum where normal considerations are rejected and the tenets by which we have lived for centuries are discarded. Lewis Carroll would be in his element here!

1. Thanks to the manner in which the staggeringly incompetent Prime Minister and her supporting coterie of cardboard cut-outs handled the exit process, any worthwhile deal always was an impossibility. Currently, the only means of achieving anything like a position of advantage to the UK is to walk away, adopt WTO and from that properly defined position, seek to negotiate with Brussels.
3. The revocation of Article 50 would indeed represent a self-inflicted national humiliation of incalculable consequences. 31/2 years ago, I would not have been able to conceive such a ridiculous and seemingly impossible position. Now, given the totality of absolute bloody uselessness and venality of those purporting to represent the electorate, I can see this outcome as entirely plausible.
2. The "deal" has never been part of the deal. It is a device confected by the establishment to thwart the referendum conclusion and has been used to great effect by those mentioned in 2 above.

It is facile to write off Farage and the Brexit party as a convenient depository of the disaffected. This fails to acknowledge the raging anger felt by the populace at large and the reasons for it. Obviously, Brexit is at the heart of the new party's appeal but additionally, and to a very large extent, those intending to support the Farage faction regard the Houses of Parliament as today's equivalent of the Augean stables; both parliamentary institutions being full of excrement and urgently in need of a damned good clear-out. Nigel Farage may be no Hercules but he's the nearest we've got.

Last edited by Gipsy Queen; 21st May 2019 at 13:42.
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Old 20th May 2019, 05:59
  #8080 (permalink)  
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Yep, it's that old multiple occupancy conundrum again........

https://www.theguardian.com/commenti...hority-cartoon
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