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UK Politics Hamsterwheel MkII

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UK Politics Hamsterwheel MkII

Old 28th Nov 2018, 18:52
  #721 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Gertrude the Wombat View Post
So one would think, but then he's been doing just that for two years, otherwise he'd hardly be languishing behind the worst government of modern times ... all very puzzling.
Corbyn was in the right place at the right time, when tectonic plate were shifting in public thought and the Tory "greed is good" ideology was rapidly becoming bankrupt. Their biggest problem is they can't reinvent themselves away from this no matter how hard they try - the whole Tory edifice is built upon structures that are crumbling.

Adding to that they have no serious heavyweights at the top to take the mantle from May... something the party elders are very well aware of. Whoever takes over from her would potentially be far more toxic.

Corbyn will win by default.
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Old 28th Nov 2018, 19:00
  #722 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by ATNotts View Post
But not just Tories, there is a cohort of Labour voters who were involved too. I would suggest that the majority of little Englanders are Tory, the "stop immigration - they're nicking our jobs" faction were probably more Labour, and most likely spending their days in front of Jeremy Kyle adamant they'd work, but not in the jobs that the migrants are taking!!

I don't believe that we'd be a laughing stock in the eyes of the world were we to vote again, and reverse the decision. In the light of new information, anything is possible. The Irish and the Danes aren't a laughing stock, and they revisited the same question. I don't believe there is a guarantee that a new vote would reverse the 2016 outcome, though through their reluctance to countenance one, Brexiteers fairly obviously believe there is.
Oh Labour is equally responsible because the party sat on its hands and didn't try and get its vote out. But then again its "core" vote had seen migrants come into their community. As much as they "bitched" they are taking our jobs and housing they were also benefitting massively as Govt had to spent money on school / hospitals in areas where migrants lived.

However it was Tory party in power and a referendum was not required but Camerloon gave UKIP one.

Boris fully expected that Labour would get its vote out and referendum would narrowly lose but HE as a leaver would be in a position to take over from Call me Dave. In truth he misunderstood people. It was in many ways a "Too many Polish Immigrants" vote where they getting targetted and blammed for whatever could be chucked at them.

A re referendum would end up in a vote to stay as quite simply the Leave campaign could not cope with what would get thrown at them and 2 1/2 yrs after the vote it is crashing down.

The Irish and Danes have tiny populations and don't go on about their strategic position in the world................. that is the diffference.
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Old 28th Nov 2018, 19:04
  #723 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by ATNotts View Post
I believe they may well be, splitting into two parties, a centrist one and and right wing populist one is a distinct possibility; which somewhat worryingly leaves us for a while with Labour, lead by a bunch of left wingers as the governing party, given our cockeyed electoral system - nearly as unappetising as Brexit.
I think the split may be more than that.................... Both Tory and Labour splitting into a new centrist party.

I would welcome that if only because a peaceful revolution is needed every 50 years. Maybe change electoral system at same time for the whole country.
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Old 28th Nov 2018, 19:44
  #724 (permalink)  
 
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Maybe change electoral system at same time for the whole country.
And give the Greens the representation they deserve!
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Old 28th Nov 2018, 21:02
  #725 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by flash8 View Post
And give the Greens the representation they deserve!
Give everybody the representation they deserve.

Councils where it is all party are an afront to democracy, let them do PR so if a party has 50% of the vote it will not end up with 100% of the seats.
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Old 28th Nov 2018, 21:20
  #726 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Gertrude the Wombat View Post
Yeahbut you're talking about "facts". Wot you really should have realised by now, for heaven's sake, is that brexiteers don't do "facts".
BBC Radio 5 this morning, a text from a listener. "...I'm not interested in facts, i just want out of the EU..."

Good grief!
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Old 28th Nov 2018, 21:47
  #727 (permalink)  
 
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Both Tory and Labour splitting into a new centrist party
SDP? I was quite shocked to learn, a couple of days ago, the the SDP still exists. It made the news when a UKIP drone quit that lot and is now a sitting MEP for SDP.
Well, I never!
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Old 28th Nov 2018, 22:07
  #728 (permalink)  
 
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TURIN do you know the difference between facts and forecasts?

Did you ever hear the joke "why do economists use a decimal point?"

"To show they have a sense of humour!"

Foecasting the GDP of the U.K. In 15 years time assuming the current EU membership status remains the same has to assume that the rest of the world stays the same. Is this accurate? Of course not. Forecasting the status of the U.K.'s or the EU's GDP in 15 years' time post Brexit is in crystal ball territory.

Google "the perils of planning on the basis of economic forecasts" and you will find a very entertaining article in the Economist.
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Old 28th Nov 2018, 22:14
  #729 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by racedo View Post
let them do PR so if a party has 50% of the vote it will not end up with 100% of the seats.
Can do better than that, given that you don't actually need 100% of the seats, 67% is sufficient for most purposes. We had a 2/3 plus one majority of the council, enough to do anything we liked including rewrite the constitution, from about 10% of the voters - nowhere remotely near 50% of the vote was necessary let alone 50% of the voters. Only about 30% of the electorate voted at all, and only about 35% of those voted for us, but the way the votes split between parties in individual seats delivered the result. You don't actually need the expected minimum of 34% to win a seat - I've seen a set won with 28% on a four way split (Greens involved, second place had 25%).

On the Friday night after this election we were sitting in a pub (surprise surprise) and at the next table was a bunch of Tories (one used to see them about the place in those days in numbers large enough to occupy a pub table, one doesn't any more). "That's not fair," they said. When we pointed out that they'd had umpty-ump years in central government during which they could have changed the voting system if they thought it was "Not Fair" they just looked away and muttered into their beer.
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Old 29th Nov 2018, 07:30
  #730 (permalink)  
 
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A couple of weeks ago the newspapers and TV news were brimming with forecasts of impending votes of no confidence, predictions of Mrs May's instant demise, it was a done deal. In actual fact, despite the reported certainty of her downfall, nothing happened, the letters submitted barely reached half of those required and the matter suddenly went away.
There is no real certainty here, but I think the forecasts of the deal being rejected so overwhelmingly may be wrong, perhaps on the day it will go through, who knows. Hammond is doing a good job of infuriating the leave supporters by his blatant improbable forecasts this morning, despite all that is being said there is no evidence being offered that those who voted leave have changed their minds.
I would not be surprised if the deal went through.
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Old 29th Nov 2018, 08:20
  #731 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by ATNotts View Post
the parcels shelves of Ford Anglias in the 1960s and 70s!!
A distinguishing feature of the Ford Anglia was the absence of a parcel shelf.

What an odd name too, who put parcels there?
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Old 29th Nov 2018, 08:49
  #732 (permalink)  
 
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TURIN.
Why the surprise?
This is precisely the level at which the EU/ BrExit issue should be viewed!

It's about sovereignty and the running, or not, of our own affairs.

Minor issues about trade and co-operation with Europe can come afterwards. It's not that these things are unimportant, but whether we control our own borders, run our own affairs etc, is infinitely more so.
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Old 29th Nov 2018, 08:51
  #733 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Nomad2 View Post
TURIN.
Why the surprise?
This is precisely the level at which the EU/ BrExit issue should be viewed!

It's about sovereignty and the running, or not, of our own affairs.

Minor issues about trade and come afterwards. It's not that these things are unimportant, but whether we control our own borders, run our own affairs etc, is infinitely more so.
Dad: Im afraid Ive lost my job.
Kids: Does that mean we wont have anything to eat, or anywhere to live?
Dad: It might, but think of all that lovely delicious cosy sovereignty.
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Old 29th Nov 2018, 09:10
  #734 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Nomad2 View Post
It's about sovereignty and the running, or not, of our own affairs.

Minor issues about trade and co-operation with Europe can come afterwards. It's not that these things are unimportant, but whether we control our own borders, run our own affairs etc, is infinitely more so.
I suspect if you think the issues facing trade in the wake of a “no deal” will be “minor” then the following observations are a bit of a waste of time but I’ll try anyway

The U.K. has national sovereignty (care to define?) just like Germany, France and the rest of the EU states have.

Border Control was in place the last time I entered the U.K. and FWIW people regularly get turned away from the U.K. border. They often end up being carried back to their point of origin on flights I have been involved in, so the idea that there is no border control is nonsense.

We do run our own affairs and the EU seem to be free to allow us to make a complete Horlicks of it, just like Mr Macron is free to run his own affairs (currently badly) in France.
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Old 29th Nov 2018, 09:34
  #735 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by TURIN View Post
BBC Radio 5 this morning, a text from a listener. "...I'm not interested in facts, i just want out of the EU..."

Good grief!
Why should we be surprised at that.
None of us have ever been given unbiased facts.

Far from it. We have all been manipulated and lied to by all those in supposed positions of authority.
It amounts to a national disgrace and for that reason we have rightly learnt to distrust pretty much everything we are told.

Democracy???
Don't make me laugh.
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Old 29th Nov 2018, 10:44
  #736 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by Buster15 View Post
Why should we be surprised at that.
None of us have ever been given unbiased facts.

Far from it. We have all been manipulated and lied to by all those in supposed positions of authority.
It amounts to a national disgrace and for that reason we have rightly learnt to distrust pretty much everything we are told..
Quite.

I know that one local firm has spent 500k buying in extra stock and Topos Tiles yesterday said they were buying in 3m extra stock. Today I think it was said only 39% of firms had made any provision for no deal.

In essence the two firms I mentioned are anticipating a temporary supply chain delay. Once the longer supply chain starts to flow things trade will pick up again.

The effect is that firms need more credit to finance the longer supply chain.
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Old 29th Nov 2018, 11:10
  #737 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Pontius Navigator View Post
Quite.

I know that one local firm has spent 500k buying in extra stock and Topos Tiles yesterday said they were buying in 3m extra stock. Today I think it was said only 39% of firms had made any provision for no deal.

In essence the two firms I mentioned are anticipating a temporary supply chain delay. Once the longer supply chain starts to flow things trade will pick up again.

The effect is that firms need more credit to finance the longer supply chain.
Interesting observation about Topps Tiles. We went there to get some travertine stone flooring. Over 40/m. Saw the name of the quarry in Turkey where the stuff comes from on some samples there. Went online, found the quarry sell the same stuff directly for ~14/m. We bought three full pallet loads, had them shipped from Turkey, paid the carriage, duty etc and still the price came in at well under half that of the tile place, even with a load of stone left over. The ~half a pallet load left over I sold to a neighbour for around 20/m who was dead chuffed at such a good deal, so our actual cost per m for what we used ended up being a bit less.
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Old 29th Nov 2018, 11:57
  #738 (permalink)  
 
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If Brexit is all about running our own affairs then its an even bigger lie
1 we are too small to count ina global world- what we do say or think doesnt matter to anyone

2 And by anyone I mean the population of the UK-we are a trade based economy and is we leave the Eu our trading nation with every single country in the world will be weakened because we are now smaller and desperate

3 Most of our rules on food and manufactured good s will be made outside the Uk because the Eua nd USA and China and Japan can just say these are our rules and you will go along with them-we have no choice

4 Immigration is a global problem and we are not immune. All governments have handled it badly especially us and germany but at lease the germans ahve things like ID cards

5 On many 'social' issues like crime , some environemntal aspects like town planning, education, health these are all decided in Uk anyway so why ruin the country to take back control over the things you already control when many major problems are things that will be completely out of control if we leave the Eu. We are a powerful force in the Eu and can stand up for ourselves-alone we are a non entity and a complete joke . I dont think they will but lets just say we look to do a trade deal with turkey- and turkey who wants to join the Eu just a get a call from Brussels to say- do a deal with UK on better terms than us and you can forget being in EU forever. same say with Brazil only this time its Washington makes the call .

Of course Japan quite likes and admires us so we can do a deal with them but they have a much higher tech and manufacturing base than we do. On the other hand there is one thing they can give us which is a good name for our plight--Kamikaze Britain
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Old 29th Nov 2018, 12:13
  #739 (permalink)  
 
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Those who keep insisting on the myth that the UK is a tiny player in international trade should, perhaps, read some facts, rather than rely on fake news.

From the latest WTO data I could find from a quick search, these are the top ten trading nations in the world:

1 United States
2 China
3 Germany
4 United Kingdom
5 Japan
6 France
7 Netherlands
8 Hong Kong
9 South Korea
10 Italy
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Old 29th Nov 2018, 12:59
  #740 (permalink)  
 
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VP959: The answer that will be along soon is that is because we are still in, and we only have that trade because of the EU, and whatever deal we get, or don't get, will cause us to lose all that trade and we will fall to the bottom of the list along with all the other poor nations, apparently.
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