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UK Politics Hamsterwheel MkII

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UK Politics Hamsterwheel MkII

Old 9th Apr 2019, 09:45
  #7241 (permalink)  
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ATNotts indeed. I have previously asked why we attempt a global military reach when many, indeed most, other countries are content to restrict the bulk of their effort in a local context.

It is true that western navies contribute to various task forces such as the Gulf and Somalia but only France also feels the need for SSN and SSBN outside the big three. We have moderately large, under equipped aircraft carriers capable of battleship diplomacy or the 19th Century. Besides their huge expense do they demonstrate British skills in ship building?

​​​​​​The refrain is we are a maritime nation so we must protect our sea lines of communication. The EU was a collection of continental countries not dependent on sea power. No longer, they are as dependent on shipping as we are.

Whereas we used to protect the British merchant marine, it is China that needs to ensure its maritime trade is secure.

We try and punch above our weight and huge cost and probably marginal benefit.
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Old 9th Apr 2019, 13:44
  #7242 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Pontius Navigator View Post

Whereas we used to protect the British merchant marine, it is China that needs to ensure its maritime trade is secure.
.
China as usual is thinking decades ahead while everybody is thinking next year.

China Silk Road project has been about expanding trade and ties via Rail and Road plus shipping across Asia and Europe. No great surprise that Poland is benefitting from this and other EU countries.

If you are transporting goods via rail and road plus internal waterways then a mega Blue water navy is of little benefit.
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Old 9th Apr 2019, 19:05
  #7243 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by ORAC View Post
Interesting, it seems that the TIGs/Change UK will get most of their votes at the expense of the Lib-Dems ...
One does rather hope there are sensible people holding sensible conversations, but there isn't a lot of time, particularly for those who wouldn't accept any deal that hadn't gone through a special conference. (Though we did arrange one very quickly to approve the coalition.)
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Old 9th Apr 2019, 19:07
  #7244 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Exrigger View Post
As the UK will not leave without a deal ...
One might hope that that will be the case, but at present if nobody does anything to stop it then that's what will happen (the act given royal assent yesterday is so full of holes it could be used as a colander).
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Old 9th Apr 2019, 19:17
  #7245 (permalink)  
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Old 9th Apr 2019, 19:37
  #7246 (permalink)  
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Robert Peston...

https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2019/0...-brexit-delay/

The EU seems to have ruled out a long Brexit delay

As I mentioned last night, EU President Donald Tusk’s suggestion of a Brexit delay of a year or so seems to have been torn up – notably by France’s president Emmanuel Macron.

I was told by those involved in preparations for the emergency Brexit summit on Wednesday that the most likely outcome of the special summit is another kicking of the Brexit can down the road, but only till shortly after the elections for the European Parliament at the end of May.

The big problem with a long delay, for France and its President in particular, was that it would give the UK too much power – in their view – to vandalise the EU till its leaders were cowed into tearing up the Northern Ireland backstop (hated by Tory Brexiters and the DUP). EU leaders trust Theresa May to abide by the convention that all EU members, including exiting ones, should engage with each other in a spirit of ‘sincere cooperation’ – but do not trust she will be PM much longer. And they have little faith that a successor such as Johnson or Raab would not blow up their budget preparations, for example.

The widely mooted option of trying to strip the UK of voting rights during an extension is hard. Far easier to keep the postponement as short as possible. What this means is that if the delay is agreed on Wednesday, the new Brexit day would probably be some time in June or July. And for the first time it would probably be a genuine deadline, according to sources.

Some in the EU see this as the momentous date I have been presaging for months – a delayed date for a no-deal Brexit......

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Old 9th Apr 2019, 19:42
  #7247 (permalink)  
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I think they have kicked the 22 May to 1 Jun now if we don't have an election.
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Old 9th Apr 2019, 20:22
  #7248 (permalink)  
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Old 9th Apr 2019, 23:22
  #7249 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by ATNotts View Post
I know I have written this before, but to reiterate the point, if leaving the EU makes the UK understand it's true place in the world, rather than the over-inflated egotistical view that the country has of itself today, then it will become a better place for future generations.
I think that's necessary now. Anything other than Brexit will only feed the false narrative of betrayal and a potential return to greatness frustrated. A hard Brexit will be a hard lesson a very hard lesson. It may break up the UK but in the end it may induce a sense of realism among those don't already understand that.
Time will tell.
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Old 10th Apr 2019, 00:44
  #7250 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Steepclimb View Post
I think that's necessary now. Anything other than Brexit will only feed the false narrative of betrayal and a potential return to greatness frustrated. A hard Brexit will be a hard lesson a very hard lesson. It may break up the UK but in the end it may induce a sense of realism among those don't already understand that.
Time will tell.
The surprising thing I find among my friends that the Brexiteers are more likely to be second and third generation of Immigrant parents. Quite a few have a low tolerance for immigration which I find funny when their own parents were Economic migrants of a different era.
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Old 10th Apr 2019, 07:49
  #7251 (permalink)  
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Racedo, that is probably explained in that they know what they left, now they want to pull up the drawbridge and retain what they have and not dilute it through more immigration. Simplistic I know. Perhaps it is stop immigration from other than their home country?
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Old 10th Apr 2019, 08:15
  #7252 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by racedo View Post
The surprising thing I find among my friends that the Brexiteers are more likely to be second and third generation of Immigrant parents. Quite a few have a low tolerance for immigration which I find funny when their own parents were Economic migrants of a different era.
That is curious, and I too have encountered very anti immigration sentiment from first generation Asian immigrants against migrants from eastern Europe; complaining about how they are "taking over the area". Shades of pots and kettles! The irony of a community that has itself colonised a street or area whinging when a new community moves in is laughable, were it not so serious.
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Old 10th Apr 2019, 08:18
  #7253 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Pontius Navigator View Post
Racedo, that is probably explained in that they know what they left, now they want to pull up the drawbridge and retain what they have and not dilute it through more immigration.
If you look at the change in workforce demography (particularly in the lowish pay end of the Hotel/service sector) around at least one London Airport over the last 10-20 years I suspect "pulling the drawbridge up" is a strong possibility.
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Old 10th Apr 2019, 08:22
  #7254 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by ORAC View Post
Robert Peston...

https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2019/0...-brexit-delay/

The EU seems to have ruled out a long Brexit delay

As I mentioned last night, EU President Donald Tusk’s suggestion of a Brexit delay of a year or so seems to have been torn up – notably by France’s president Emmanuel Macron.

I was told by those involved in preparations for the emergency Brexit summit on Wednesday that the most likely outcome of the special summit is another kicking of the Brexit can down the road, but only till shortly after the elections for the European Parliament at the end of May.

The big problem with a long delay, for France and its President in particular, was that it would give the UK too much power – in their view – to vandalise the EU till its leaders were cowed into tearing up the Northern Ireland backstop (hated by Tory Brexiters and the DUP). EU leaders trust Theresa May to abide by the convention that all EU members, including exiting ones, should engage with each other in a spirit of ‘sincere cooperation’ – but do not trust she will be PM much longer. And they have little faith that a successor such as Johnson or Raab would not blow up their budget preparations, for example.

The widely mooted option of trying to strip the UK of voting rights during an extension is hard. Far easier to keep the postponement as short as possible. What this means is that if the delay is agreed on Wednesday, the new Brexit day would probably be some time in June or July. And for the first time it would probably be a genuine deadline, according to sources.

Some in the EU see this as the momentous date I have been presaging for months – a delayed date for a no-deal Brexit......



A poor assesment, Mr Preston has fallen for a rather blatant bluff.
Brussels will give as long a delay as possible

When I say "give", I mean "give" as in Brussels' definition of the word i.e."Insist"
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Old 10th Apr 2019, 08:55
  #7255 (permalink)  
 
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At what stage in the time line from 23.06.2016 does the last referendum become largely invalid, and need to be rerun. I thought 3 years was stretching it a bit, but the look of it it's going to be nigh on 4 years. The longer the can (which Mrs. May has neatly passed on to the EU) is kicked down the road the more likely a new referendum becomes.

Another question. When we finally leave, whether that is 23 May, 01 June, 31 December or 31 March - or any other dated that can be plucked from the calendar (or almanac) will the 21 month transition kick in, or will it be shorter, or not be implemented at all? Since if I recall correctly, the implementation and end date is written into the withdrawal agreement, which the EU has said will not be reopened there is the distinct possibility that transition could become frighteningly short (for business and industry) on both sides.
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Old 10th Apr 2019, 09:18
  #7256 (permalink)  
 
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But then we get back to the "no agreement = no transition" ending. Hence the stockpiling.
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Old 10th Apr 2019, 09:24
  #7257 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by ATNotts View Post
At what stage in the time line from 23.06.2016 does the last referendum become largely invalid, and need to be rerun. I thought 3 years was stretching it a bit, but the look of it it's going to be nigh on 4 years. The longer the can (which Mrs. May has neatly passed on to the EU) is kicked down the road the more likely a new referendum becomes.

Another question. When we finally leave, whether that is 23 May, 01 June, 31 December or 31 March - or any other dated that can be plucked from the calendar (or almanac) will the 21 month transition kick in, or will it be shorter, or not be implemented at all? Since if I recall correctly, the implementation and end date is written into the withdrawal agreement, which the EU has said will not be reopened there is the distinct possibility that transition could become frighteningly short (for business and industry) on both sides.
Well the "duration" of the first referendum seems to have been 41 years, so you've got a while to wait
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Old 10th Apr 2019, 09:37
  #7258 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Groundbased View Post
Well the "duration" of the first referendum seems to have been 41 years, so you've got a while to wait
The result of the Common Market referendum was decisive; and there was no good reason for asking the public again in short order since little had changed. In 2016 the result was very different, and wouldn't have passed muster if sensible parameters had been placed on turnout and or size of majority. And it was held on a very binary choice when nobody knew what leave would mean in terms of a deal, or indeed no deal, whilst in those 4 years very little has changed in the EU. The two situations are entirely different.

We're going to have a referendum of sorts in May this year, since the EU elections, given the UK will likely be hamstrung in it's ability to change anything in the EU during the new extension period. It will be a referendum on where we are today, and I forecast that both remain and leave parties will score well - the main parties who can't bring themselves to wholehearted support either side (because they are irreconcilably divided) will hemorrhage support.
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Old 10th Apr 2019, 10:24
  #7259 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by ATNotts View Post
The result of the Common Market referendum was decisive
It was, and the result of the 2016 membership referendum was also decisive. Leave or remain winning by one vote gives a decisive result.

and there was no good reason for asking the public again in short order
Tell that to Wee Nicky Krankie who wants to re-run the indyref despite it being a 'decisive' once in a generation vote last time round.


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Old 10th Apr 2019, 10:30
  #7260 (permalink)  
 
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Tell that to Wee Nicky Krankie who wants to re-run the indyref despite it being a 'decisive' once in a generation vote last time round.
She has a legitimate reason for doing so, since, in the first place the Scots are being taken out of the EU against a decent majority Scotland's electorate (as opposed to the wafer thin one for leaving in the UK as a whole), and one of the main planks of the "better together" campaign was that were Scotland to vote for independence it would lose it's membership of the EU.

Although she has a case, I doubt she'd win independence unless Brexit does turn out to be an unmitigated disaster.
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