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UK Politics Hamsterwheel MkII

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UK Politics Hamsterwheel MkII

Old 8th Apr 2019, 21:28
  #7241 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by Harley Quinn View Post
Speculation on your part. Try using facts
You are clearly missing the fact stated.
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Old 8th Apr 2019, 21:48
  #7242 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by Pontius Navigator View Post
You are clearly missing the fact stated.
you're right, please enlighten me.
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Old 9th Apr 2019, 06:57
  #7243 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by Harley Quinn View Post
you're right, please enlighten me.
as I said, my mother in law is always going on about the war and that is her only reason to hate the EU.

And jealousy, our money, their benefit.
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Old 9th Apr 2019, 07:04
  #7244 (permalink)  
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Interesting, it seems that the TIGs/Change UK will get most of their votes at the expense of the Lib-Dems and Labour - and particularly amongst the young which form the base of much of recent Labour support.

No proof, I have to suspect that would only benefit the Conservatives by splitting the opposition in many marginal seats.

Poll is a bit old, but no reason to think intentions would have changed much.

https://www.politico.eu/article/poll...labour-voters/

“Worryingly for Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn, the poll suggests that it is his party's supporters, younger voters and Londoners who are most tempted of the two major parties to switch their support to the new Independent Group (TIG), according to the survey of 2,006 adults that was conducted between February 22 and 25. By contrast, just 19 percent of Conservative supporters said they are either likely or very likely to vote for a TIG candidate, with 51 percent saying they are either unlikely or very unlikely to do so.....

The group also poses a potential threat to the centrist Lib Dems, who have long backed a second referendum — 41 percent of their supporters said they are likely or very likely to vote for a TIG candidate, with 23 percent saying that is unlikely or very unlikely.

The poll results suggest support for TIG comes mostly from the young. Forty-seven percent of 18-24 year olds approve of the formation of TIG, compared with 14 percent who disapprove — a net score of plus 33 percent, according to the poll. This support steadily decreases with age. Just under a third — 32 percent — of over 65s approve of the new grouping, compared with 30 percent who disapprove.

Overall, 32 percent of Labour supporters (based on their declared future voting intention) say they are either likely or very likely to vote for a TIG candidate if they stood in their constituency. That compares with 29 percent who said they are either unlikely or very unlikely to do so......

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Old 9th Apr 2019, 07:17
  #7245 (permalink)  
 
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EU citizens’ rights: the Government has published a policy paper on citizens’ rights in the event of a no deal. It confirms that in the event of a no deal, the EU Settlement Scheme will continue to be implemented, enabling EU citizens and their family members living in the UK by exit day to secure their status and continue to be able to work, study, and access benefits and services in the UK on the same basis after we exit the EU as they do now. The Scheme has opened fully on 30 March 2019. The planned application deadline will be brought forward to 31 December 2020 in the event of a no deal.

The government has also confirmed the migration arrangements for EU and EEA nationals arriving after exit day in a 'no deal' scenario. These individuals will be able to travel to and enter the UK as now, but if they wish to remain for more than 3 months they will need to register for European Temporary Leave to Remain which will be valid for 3 years. If they wish to stay after their temporary leave to remain expires, they will need to apply for the appropriate permission under the future immigration system.

https://www.universitiesuk.ac.uk/pol...versities.aspx

I assume Cambridge University has access to the above link.

As the UK will not leave without a deal and as long as the extensions keep coming, which they will, the UK is still in and it is business as usual until the day we might eventually be classed as out, and even then everything will continue virtually as before, so to quote "don't panic Mr Mannering"

Last edited by Exrigger; 9th Apr 2019 at 08:04. Reason: Added additional info
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Old 9th Apr 2019, 07:34
  #7246 (permalink)  
 
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My previous posting prompted a deal of comment; I suspected it would.

I don't imagine for one moment that how we "beat the Germans - twice" or the numerable defeats at the hands of Germany in football were primary drivers for people voting Leave. That is ridiculous. However all these things, yes, even the football, come together along with our glorious past achievements in running half the world to build a mindset among some people that, to paraphrase Donald Trump, we need to "make the UK great again" and that somehow divorcing ourselves from the EU is a step in that direction.

That is misguided. Were we to have taken part constructively and totally within the European project, from the day it was conceived as the European Coal and Steel Pact back in the 1950s instead of promoting the idea of the institution provided the UK wasn't involved; then ever since we joined the Common Market, railed against taking part in so many of it's policies we would have been at the centre of decision making and in a much better, stronger place than we are now.

I know I have written this before, but to reiterate the point, if leaving the EU makes the UK understand it's true place in the world, rather than the over-inflated egotistical view that the country has of itself today, then it will become a better place for future generations.
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Old 9th Apr 2019, 08:45
  #7247 (permalink)  
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ATNotts indeed. I have previously asked why we attempt a global military reach when many, indeed most, other countries are content to restrict the bulk of their effort in a local context.

It is true that western navies contribute to various task forces such as the Gulf and Somalia but only France also feels the need for SSN and SSBN outside the big three. We have moderately large, under equipped aircraft carriers capable of battleship diplomacy or the 19th Century. Besides their huge expense do they demonstrate British skills in ship building?

​​​​​​The refrain is we are a maritime nation so we must protect our sea lines of communication. The EU was a collection of continental countries not dependent on sea power. No longer, they are as dependent on shipping as we are.

Whereas we used to protect the British merchant marine, it is China that needs to ensure its maritime trade is secure.

We try and punch above our weight and huge cost and probably marginal benefit.
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Old 9th Apr 2019, 12:44
  #7248 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Pontius Navigator View Post

Whereas we used to protect the British merchant marine, it is China that needs to ensure its maritime trade is secure.
.
China as usual is thinking decades ahead while everybody is thinking next year.

China Silk Road project has been about expanding trade and ties via Rail and Road plus shipping across Asia and Europe. No great surprise that Poland is benefitting from this and other EU countries.

If you are transporting goods via rail and road plus internal waterways then a mega Blue water navy is of little benefit.
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Old 9th Apr 2019, 18:05
  #7249 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by ORAC View Post
Interesting, it seems that the TIGs/Change UK will get most of their votes at the expense of the Lib-Dems ...
One does rather hope there are sensible people holding sensible conversations, but there isn't a lot of time, particularly for those who wouldn't accept any deal that hadn't gone through a special conference. (Though we did arrange one very quickly to approve the coalition.)
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Old 9th Apr 2019, 18:07
  #7250 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Exrigger View Post
As the UK will not leave without a deal ...
One might hope that that will be the case, but at present if nobody does anything to stop it then that's what will happen (the act given royal assent yesterday is so full of holes it could be used as a colander).
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Old 9th Apr 2019, 18:17
  #7251 (permalink)  
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Old 9th Apr 2019, 18:37
  #7252 (permalink)  
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Robert Peston...

https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2019/0...-brexit-delay/

The EU seems to have ruled out a long Brexit delay

As I mentioned last night, EU President Donald Tusk’s suggestion of a Brexit delay of a year or so seems to have been torn up – notably by France’s president Emmanuel Macron.

I was told by those involved in preparations for the emergency Brexit summit on Wednesday that the most likely outcome of the special summit is another kicking of the Brexit can down the road, but only till shortly after the elections for the European Parliament at the end of May.

The big problem with a long delay, for France and its President in particular, was that it would give the UK too much power – in their view – to vandalise the EU till its leaders were cowed into tearing up the Northern Ireland backstop (hated by Tory Brexiters and the DUP). EU leaders trust Theresa May to abide by the convention that all EU members, including exiting ones, should engage with each other in a spirit of ‘sincere cooperation’ – but do not trust she will be PM much longer. And they have little faith that a successor such as Johnson or Raab would not blow up their budget preparations, for example.

The widely mooted option of trying to strip the UK of voting rights during an extension is hard. Far easier to keep the postponement as short as possible. What this means is that if the delay is agreed on Wednesday, the new Brexit day would probably be some time in June or July. And for the first time it would probably be a genuine deadline, according to sources.

Some in the EU see this as the momentous date I have been presaging for months – a delayed date for a no-deal Brexit......

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Old 9th Apr 2019, 18:42
  #7253 (permalink)  
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I think they have kicked the 22 May to 1 Jun now if we don't have an election.
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Old 9th Apr 2019, 19:22
  #7254 (permalink)  
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Old 9th Apr 2019, 22:22
  #7255 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by ATNotts View Post
I know I have written this before, but to reiterate the point, if leaving the EU makes the UK understand it's true place in the world, rather than the over-inflated egotistical view that the country has of itself today, then it will become a better place for future generations.
I think that's necessary now. Anything other than Brexit will only feed the false narrative of betrayal and a potential return to greatness frustrated. A hard Brexit will be a hard lesson a very hard lesson. It may break up the UK but in the end it may induce a sense of realism among those don't already understand that.
Time will tell.
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Old 9th Apr 2019, 23:44
  #7256 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Steepclimb View Post
I think that's necessary now. Anything other than Brexit will only feed the false narrative of betrayal and a potential return to greatness frustrated. A hard Brexit will be a hard lesson a very hard lesson. It may break up the UK but in the end it may induce a sense of realism among those don't already understand that.
Time will tell.
The surprising thing I find among my friends that the Brexiteers are more likely to be second and third generation of Immigrant parents. Quite a few have a low tolerance for immigration which I find funny when their own parents were Economic migrants of a different era.
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Old 10th Apr 2019, 06:49
  #7257 (permalink)  
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Racedo, that is probably explained in that they know what they left, now they want to pull up the drawbridge and retain what they have and not dilute it through more immigration. Simplistic I know. Perhaps it is stop immigration from other than their home country?
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Old 10th Apr 2019, 07:15
  #7258 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by racedo View Post
The surprising thing I find among my friends that the Brexiteers are more likely to be second and third generation of Immigrant parents. Quite a few have a low tolerance for immigration which I find funny when their own parents were Economic migrants of a different era.
That is curious, and I too have encountered very anti immigration sentiment from first generation Asian immigrants against migrants from eastern Europe; complaining about how they are "taking over the area". Shades of pots and kettles! The irony of a community that has itself colonised a street or area whinging when a new community moves in is laughable, were it not so serious.
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Old 10th Apr 2019, 07:18
  #7259 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Pontius Navigator View Post
Racedo, that is probably explained in that they know what they left, now they want to pull up the drawbridge and retain what they have and not dilute it through more immigration.
If you look at the change in workforce demography (particularly in the lowish pay end of the Hotel/service sector) around at least one London Airport over the last 10-20 years I suspect "pulling the drawbridge up" is a strong possibility.
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Old 10th Apr 2019, 07:22
  #7260 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by ORAC View Post
Robert Peston...

https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2019/0...-brexit-delay/

The EU seems to have ruled out a long Brexit delay

As I mentioned last night, EU President Donald Tusk’s suggestion of a Brexit delay of a year or so seems to have been torn up – notably by France’s president Emmanuel Macron.

I was told by those involved in preparations for the emergency Brexit summit on Wednesday that the most likely outcome of the special summit is another kicking of the Brexit can down the road, but only till shortly after the elections for the European Parliament at the end of May.

The big problem with a long delay, for France and its President in particular, was that it would give the UK too much power – in their view – to vandalise the EU till its leaders were cowed into tearing up the Northern Ireland backstop (hated by Tory Brexiters and the DUP). EU leaders trust Theresa May to abide by the convention that all EU members, including exiting ones, should engage with each other in a spirit of ‘sincere cooperation’ – but do not trust she will be PM much longer. And they have little faith that a successor such as Johnson or Raab would not blow up their budget preparations, for example.

The widely mooted option of trying to strip the UK of voting rights during an extension is hard. Far easier to keep the postponement as short as possible. What this means is that if the delay is agreed on Wednesday, the new Brexit day would probably be some time in June or July. And for the first time it would probably be a genuine deadline, according to sources.

Some in the EU see this as the momentous date I have been presaging for months – a delayed date for a no-deal Brexit......



A poor assesment, Mr Preston has fallen for a rather blatant bluff.
Brussels will give as long a delay as possible

When I say "give", I mean "give" as in Brussels' definition of the word i.e."Insist"
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