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UK Politics Hamsterwheel MkII

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UK Politics Hamsterwheel MkII

Old 25th Mar 2019, 09:54
  #6801 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Nov 2015
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Originally Posted by Effluent Man View Post
When I posted 6788# last night I fully expected the full Orage D'ordure of rebuttals and scoffings from the Leave brethren. I was most surprised when logging on this morning to find that my allegations of jiggery pokery have gone completely unchallenged from that direction. This is indeed a very strange reaction. It really tells the story for itself.

Now I know that opinion polling has gone through a period of mixed fortunes with some poor forecasting, but the whole point of psephology is that you build up a picture over a period of time and a run of 150 polls over a six month period leading up to June 23 2016, that's almost one a day, all point to the same outcome. In total that is a massive sample. Then the actual result is an outlier. Statistically that really is so vanishingly small a probable outcome that the chances of it happening are probably less than winning the lottery without having bought a ticket.

This in itself is the reason why I feel that a second referendum is the only democratic option. Leave means Leave stole the result with a truly breathtaking piece of twenty first century hucksterism.
Why do you think a second referendum would be not free from ‘jiggery pokery’ as you put it?

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Old 25th Mar 2019, 10:05
  #6802 (permalink)  
 
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Because with the benefit of hindsight it would be possible to prevent extraneous social media based campaigns such as the one that swung 2016 so decisively. I would suggest two stages 1 May deal v No deal and 2. The winner v Remain.
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Old 25th Mar 2019, 10:28
  #6803 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by G0ULI View Post
The freedom of movement guarantees between Northern Ireland and Eire predate membership of the EEC/EU and therefore hold greater weight. When the UK departs from the EU, the provisions of the Good Friday Agreement will still be in force as far as the British are concerned. Eire is screwed because they will have responsibility thrust upon them by the EU to deal with EU border security, the UK needs to do nothing if it do wishes.
​​​​​​....
In other words, Brexit creates an intolerable problem for the Irish Republic and for the EU.
Leavers acknowledge this but since it is someone else's problem they are not in the least bothered. Just stick up two fingers and carry on.

Is it surprising that the EU continues to play hard ball during exit negotiations?

What a wonderful start to future trade negotiations with the EU!
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Old 25th Mar 2019, 10:43
  #6804 (permalink)  
 
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Reading a piece on the BBCNews website yesterday relating to the (alleged) imminent departure of Theresa May from No.10 I was amused to read that neither of the two people named as front runners for the caretaker PM job is "acceptable to the ERG". Liddington is seen as too much of a remainer, and Gove looked upon as someone who is untrustworthy and might soften Brexit, to say remaining in the customs union. This begs the question, who would be a suitable candidate? It looks, from the ERG perspective that's a simple answer; one of their own - gawd forbid JR-M, Peter Bone, or Mark Francois I imagine.

Proof, if further proof were need that it's the ERG, not the Prime Minister or the Conservative party as a whole that believe they are in the driving seat at the moment. I think the next few days will see them outflanked, which in all probability will result in four things:-

Support for a much softer Brexit
UK participation in the EU Parliamentary elections
Extension of Art.50 by minimum 12 months to reach a new exit agreement
The extreme right wing of the Tory party splitting to form a new grouping

Beyond that, perhaps the sensible wing of Labour moving towards a much more centrist Tory party; and pretty inevitably an early general election which will result in a very hung parliament - perhaps even other proper coalition.

So Brexit might have a silver lining after all.
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Old 25th Mar 2019, 10:55
  #6805 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by Effluent Man View Post
The problem with the "False Answer" explanation is that it would not happen 148 times in the same direction. The simple answer is that CA targeted the voters who had been determined could be swayed to vote in the 24/36 hours leading up to the close of polling on the 23rd. So a concerted blitz from the morning of the 22nd vis social media. It's the only plausible explanation as to why six months and 150 polls would turn in this way at the last moment.
Good explanation. As for false answers, I suspect that an even spilt is not that likely. Suppose the media suggest that A will win, then by saying you will support A you will reinforce that, positive bias, but perhaps engender complacency in A supporters. Then of course .CA would be well placed to exploit such complacency and improve B support.
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Old 25th Mar 2019, 10:58
  #6806 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Feb 2007
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Originally Posted by ATNotts View Post
Reading a piece on the BBCNews website yesterday relating to the (alleged) imminent departure of Theresa May from No.10 I was amused to read that neither of the two people named as front runners for the caretaker PM job is "acceptable to the ERG". Liddington is seen as too much of a remainer, and Gove looked upon as someone who is untrustworthy and might soften Brexit, to say remaining in the customs union. This begs the question, who would be a suitable candidate? It looks, from the ERG perspective that's a simple answer; one of their own - gawd forbid JR-M, Peter Bone, or Mark Francois I imagine.

Proof, if further proof were need that it's the ERG, not the Prime Minister or the Conservative party as a whole that believe they are in the driving seat at the moment. I think the next few days will see them outflanked, which in all probability will result in four things:-

Support for a much softer Brexit
UK participation in the EU Parliamentary elections
Extension of Art.50 by minimum 12 months to reach a new exit agreement
The extreme right wing of the Tory party splitting to form a new grouping

Beyond that, perhaps the sensible wing of Labour moving towards a much more centrist Tory party; and pretty inevitably an early general election which will result in a very hung parliament - perhaps even other proper coalition.

So Brexit might have a silver lining after all.
It's certainly time the ERG left and joined their natural home in the BNP.

As for a 'proper' 50:50 coalition, would it ever get anything done?

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Old 25th Mar 2019, 11:07
  #6807 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Sallyann1234 View Post
It's certainly time the ERG left and joined their natural home in the BNP.
...
Can you justify that comment with verifiable information?

Or is it just an unjustified, meaningless comment?
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Old 25th Mar 2019, 11:13
  #6808 (permalink)  
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EF,

you build up a picture over a period of time and a run of 150 polls over a six month period leading up to June 23 2016, that's almost one a day, all point to the same outcome. In total that is a massive sample.

Then the actual result is an outlier. Statistically that really is so vanishingly small a probable outcome that the chances of it happening are probably less than winning the lottery without having bought a ticket.

This in itself is the reason why I feel that a second referendum is the only democratic option
Are those 150 polls of fresh 'random' samples each time, or do they canvas the same people to detect change of opinion?

I have been stopped in a High Street twice. The first time I was totally in typical and unable to provide any relevant answers. Was I a don't know or discarded? The second interview went well and lasted 5- 10 until the end when I declined my name and address. She was exasperated as my answers would not be admissible.

I know you are convinced that weight of numbers were overthrown by CA, but opinion polls have a history of getting it wrong. The 2017 election was perhaps three most recent example of polls being wrong.
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Old 25th Mar 2019, 11:16
  #6809 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Sallyann1234 View Post
It's certainly time the ERG left and joined their natural home in the BNP.

As for a 'proper' 50:50 coalition, would it ever get anything done?
Coalitions are rarely made of equals, except of course in Germany where the CDU/CSU (pretty similar in some respects to the Tories/DUP) and SPD are pretty close to 50/50. The UK needs to evolve it's politics from confrontation to compromise so that when have periodic crises, be they financial or geopolitical we don't end up in the God awful mess that is Brexit. Watch politicians on various programmes over the weekend, and this morning, they are still talking across each other rather than trying to work together to resolve the mess. Corbyn says he's talking to people from all sides, but not about compromise, but about getting them to support his vision. The Tories in the name of Barclay are carrying on largely as though their deal hasn't failed twice already, and still can't produce a plan "B".

Will we learn anything from the mistakes of the last 3 years? I'm afraid I doubt it. Our jounalists, don't appear to understand how coalitions work (you can see that when during elections they obsessed with asking the centre party(s) who they would support in the event of a "hung parliament" rather than questioning them about their policies); and Labour and the Tories enjoy the cosy mud slinging "buggins turn" system we have now.
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Old 25th Mar 2019, 11:18
  #6810 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Sprogget View Post
How is it possible? I don't know, I'm not making the claim, you are. Pretty hard to miss the million plus people walking round London yesterday though, since we're addressing disbelief at big numbers.
.
So what? Were they 1 million of the people who voted remain first time around,or 1 million people who have changed their mind since,or a mixture of both?
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Old 25th Mar 2019, 11:21
  #6811 (permalink)  
 
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Oh, you don't think a million member march against a government in a death spiral is of significance? Ok then, understood.
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Old 25th Mar 2019, 11:21
  #6812 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Pontius Navigator View Post
EF,



Are those 150 polls of fresh 'random' samples each time, or do they canvas the same people to detect change of opinion?

I have been stopped in a High Street twice. The first time I was totally in typical and unable to provide any relevant answers. Was I a don't know or discarded? The second interview went well and lasted 5- 10 until the end when I declined my name and address. She was exasperated as my answers would not be admissible.

I know you are convinced that weight of numbers were overthrown by CA, but opinion polls have a history of getting it wrong. The 2017 election was perhaps three most recent example of polls being wrong.
Good polls are always conducted with quotas based on age, sex, location, socioeconomic classification to name but a few, but the answers are very much dictated by the questions and how they are asked; and those questions end to be dictated by the client. If the client has an agenda, then often, despite the best efforts of the polling agency, the questions will be designed to elicit the response required by the client. Whatever, of course, if the respondents lie, or give the answers they believe the interviewer wants to hear rather than their opinion, the results may be less reliable.
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Old 25th Mar 2019, 11:29
  #6813 (permalink)  
 
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God I thought Brexit had brought our country low enough until I saw the drivel in the Borisgraph to with its picture of the incompetent lying clown day uttering let my p[people go. We while mummification is a characteristic of some of the readers, I suspect that helping to let people go is not a strong point with BJ as evidenced by his time as Foreign Sec. The worst ever , at a candidate . I suppose he is in some ways fitted to be PM as we are already a laughing stock lets put a clown in charge.

Change the PM , elected democratically 3 years ago-sure no problem, second referendum after three years oh my god no-the world would end. HYPOCRISY ?
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Old 25th Mar 2019, 11:32
  #6814 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by pax britanica View Post
God I thought Brexit had brought our country low enough until I saw the drivel in the Borisgraph to with its picture of the incompetent lying clown day uttering let my p[people go. We while mummification is a characteristic of some of the readers, I suspect that helping to let people go is not a strong point with BJ as evidenced by his time as Foreign Sec. The worst ever , at a candidate . I suppose he is in some ways fitted to be PM as we are already a laughing stock lets put a clown in charge.

Change the PM , elected democratically 3 years ago-sure no problem, second referendum after three years oh my god no-the world would end. HYPOCRISY ?
For fans of Boris, I hate to bring you down, but you would be entertaining support for a man who wants to run the country but doesn't understand that no deal means no transition period. It's hard to overstate how basic this stuff is. At this point the lunatics really are running the asylum.



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Old 25th Mar 2019, 11:33
  #6815 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Sallyann1234 View Post
In other words, Brexit creates an intolerable problem for the Irish Republic and for the EU.
Leavers acknowledge this but since it is someone else's problem they are not in the least bothered. Just stick up two fingers and carry on.
...
A thought from within Eire: Irish authorities are seeing Switzerland as a model for our frontier with North
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Old 25th Mar 2019, 11:36
  #6816 (permalink)  
 
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Sprogget, could you try 10 consecutive post without insulting someone?
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Old 25th Mar 2019, 11:41
  #6817 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by NoelEvans View Post
Can you justify that comment with verifiable information?

Or is it just an unjustified, meaningless comment?
It's an opinion, like everything posted on here. If you don't like it you know exactly what to do.
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Old 25th Mar 2019, 11:42
  #6818 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by NoelEvans View Post
Sprogget, could you try 10 consecutive post without insulting someone?
No one forces you to read my posts. If you don't like them, you know exactly what to do.
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Old 25th Mar 2019, 12:12
  #6819 (permalink)  
 
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The thing with opinion polls is that they mostly return the answers that you want to hear. Most polls have unconcsious bias in the questions selected, the way they are phrased and the selection of correspondents. The best polls will return results that are strongly indicative of public opinion but only if the person being polled is unaware of the purpose of the poll, otherwise answers may be given in an attempt to deliberately skew the results.

Another truth is that people rarely change their minds, even when presented with facts that suggest that a change of opinion would be beneficial. Hence we have the lifelong Tory, Labour, Liberal voters who will vote for their given party candidate no matter what. Those same people also seem to mostly inclined to give evasive or dishonest answers to doorstep pollsters in my experience, on the basis and belief that their vote is secret. It isn't, but that is an entirely different matter.

The first question that needs to be asked is, who is conducting the poll and for what purpose? Then you need to consider, Is the poll designed to produce or likely to influence a specific outcome? Who benefits from the result of the poll, which is closely linked to who is paying for it?

Every available avenue of research suggests that if the Referendum was held again, the exact same result would be achieved within a couple of tenths of a percentage point. Leopards don't change their spots and people don't change their minds once committted to a course of action. It is hard wired into our brains at a very deep level.

If anyone is in any doubt as to the veracity of these facts, a visit to a casino or betting shop will quickly reveal how people are happy to continue betting against the odds even though it is obvious that gambling is a fool's game.

Brexit is something of a gamble, but human nature being what it is, it is inevitable now.
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Old 25th Mar 2019, 13:22
  #6820 (permalink)  
 
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Effluent Man do polls actually mean anything, especially internet polls?
GtW I'm glad you enjoyed the, ultimately pointless, exercise of bringing the capital of the UK to a standstill. At least you are supporting flag manufacturers in these tough economic times...
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