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UK Politics Hamsterwheel MkII

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UK Politics Hamsterwheel MkII

Old 24th Mar 2019, 19:19
  #6781 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Harley Quinn View Post
I don't know how it's done, I'm one of the great uneducated class in this country, but I do know a weak argument; you have accused the leave side of hypocrisy and then asked for them to prove they're not hypocrites.
The first sentence is self evident. The second is bolleaux. You stated the petition was got at & I was amongst other things, naive, gullible & downright stupid for putting any faith in it, whereas there are acres of evidence that CA, AIQ & various leave campaigns & actors gamed the referendum. All it takes is one Google search to bring it all up but if you're saying the petition is rigged Go on, prove it.
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Old 24th Mar 2019, 20:32
  #6782 (permalink)  
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POLITICO:

Election klaxon: Over on Marr, Brexit Secretary Stephen Barclay had a very different take than the chancellor. He said indicative votes were not legally binding on the government and if MPs voted for something which contravened Conservative Party policy, then the government may be forced to call a general election.

“Ultimately at its logical conclusion, the risk of a general election increases because you potentially have a situation where parliament is instructing the executive to do something that is counter to what it was elected to do,” he said. A reminder: This rules out every compromise option available to MPs, from a customs union to single market membership to a second referendum. One Brexiteer backbencher, Simon Clarke, backed Barclay, saying this was the “constitutionally correct position … and better that, surely, than our being reduced to the transmission mechanism for policies that are not our own — and which fly in the face of the promises on which we were elected.” Steve Baker
.........

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Old 24th Mar 2019, 20:49
  #6783 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by VP959 View Post
Hypothetical question:

Assuming that the Article 50 notice was revoked in the next few days, with the government deciding that continuing to pursue the departure of the UK from the EU was not a viable course of action, what do we all think would happen?
(1) Loud whining from those who have whined for the last 40 years, so no change there. And they'll carry on for another 40 years. And WGAS? - if they weren't whining about the EU they'd find something else to whine about, they're just whiners.

(2) Mild grumbling from a number of others, subside in a few days, forgotten in a few weeks.

(3) Nationwide street parties, biggest and best since V-J day. (My mother was, this lunchtime, remembering being part of the crowd in Trafalgar Square on V-E day, it'll be like that.)
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Old 24th Mar 2019, 21:02
  #6784 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Sprogget View Post
No Brexit enhances the country in any way.
We are told that Brexit will result in a reduced population. I would regard that as a significant enhancement.
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Old 24th Mar 2019, 21:05
  #6785 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by Sprogget View Post
Pretty hard to miss the million plus people walking round London yesterday though, since we're addressing disbelief at big numbers.
Actually I wonder how many were Bots?

Seriously I wonder how many were actually tourists just wanting to experience a peaceful demonstration, or even not knowing why? Not a hundred thousand but I would guess a fair number.
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Old 24th Mar 2019, 21:27
  #6786 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Pontius Navigator View Post
Seriously I wonder how many were actually tourists just wanting to experience a peaceful demonstration, or even not knowing why? Not a hundred thousand but I would guess a fair number.
There were certainly lots of people lining the route at various points, not actually marching but taking photos of the march.

You'd think those would be the tourists?

But in fact many of them were wearing or carrying things which showed they supported the cause, whether or not they were actually marching. And of course there were the supporters who weren't actually marching but were waving and cheering from windows and balconies along the route, they won't be included in any count.

I did see some people on the march who I agree would be "not knowing why" they were there. Babies. But they were few and far between, low thousands max at my guess, maybe only hundreds.
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Old 24th Mar 2019, 21:46
  #6787 (permalink)  
 
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There is a very strange anomaly in the opinion polling throughout 2016 prior to the vote. Of around 150 polls taken only one exceeded 50% for Leave. That was by OBR polling and showed 55%. One other poll, also for OBR had 50% dead. Suddenly in the 24 hours leading up to the referendum Leave moved ahead to end on 51.9%. More than anything else this tells of manipulation, problem as a result of the Cambridge Analytica involvement. There really can be no other explanation for the actual result going against 149 of 150 polls. It's a huge sample and they all went the same way.
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Old 24th Mar 2019, 21:52
  #6788 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by Effluent Man View Post
There is a very strange anomaly in the opinion polls


I thought one explanation was those canvassed gave a false answer.

More than anything else this tells of manipulation, problem as a result of the Cambridge Analytica involvement.
I have heard of CA involvement but don't know how they could affect the result. Is there a simple explanation?

I just read up about CA

some are dubious about the behavioural claims. Frederike Kaltheuner of Privacy International, the organisation that campaigns against intrusive surveillance, said that she had tested the technology using her own Facebook data. She said: “Cambridge Analytica uses data and machine-learning to profile people and predict personalities and attributes. When I did their test I had a 65% probability of being male, and [was] likely [to be] homosexual.”

And there are further doubts in the article including supporting evidence that might be self aggrandisement as they need to be 'successful' to attract more funding.

I think broadcast and newsprint media have a much bigger influence.

Last edited by Pontius Navigator; 27th Mar 2019 at 14:31.
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Old 24th Mar 2019, 22:07
  #6789 (permalink)  
 
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The problem with the "False Answer" explanation is that it would not happen 148 times in the same direction. The simple answer is that CA targeted the voters who had been determined could be swayed to vote in the 24/36 hours leading up to the close of polling on the 23rd. So a concerted blitz from the morning of the 22nd vis social media. It's the only plausible explanation as to why six months and 150 polls would turn in this way at the last moment.
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Old 24th Mar 2019, 22:09
  #6790 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Pontius Navigator View Post
I


I have heard of CA involvement but don't know how they could affect the result. Is there a simple explanation?
In a nutshell, CA acquired a LOT of personal data from Facebook users from a third party researcher who was ostensibly collecting it for academic purposes.Shortly after this came out, Channel four news ran a sting on CA's chief exec,Alexander NIx, filming him in a restaurant boasting about using bribery, stings, honey traps and prostitutes to discredit their clients rival politicians. There is strong evidence that CA used that Facebook data to target wavering referendum voters heavily with pro Brexit advertising. Facebook later claimed they had been deceived & banned CA from the site.

Whistle blowers at CA have subsequently given detailed accounts contradicting Facebook's version of events. And when I say a lot of data, the figures are around 87 million unique Facebook accounts. This was organised propaganda war on an unprecedented scale.

The full story is yet to emerge but when it does, it will be breathtaking in my view. If you want chapter & verse, then search for Peter Jukes & Carole Cadwalladr, Grauniad journos who've followed the story doggedly.
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Old 24th Mar 2019, 22:51
  #6791 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by Harley Quinn
I don't know how it's done, I'm one of the great uneducated class in this country, but I do know a weak argument; you have accused the leave side of hypocrisy and then asked for them to prove they're not hypocrites.

Originally Posted by Sprogget View Post
The first sentence is self evident. The second is bolleaux. You stated the petition was got at & I was amongst other things, naive, gullible & downright stupid for putting any faith in it, whereas there are acres of evidence that CA, AIQ & various leave campaigns & actors gamed the referendum. All it takes is one Google search to bring it all up but if you're saying the petition is rigged Go on, prove it.
Papapunter or Sproglet, whichever one you are, I'll have to assume English isn't your first language? The eagle-eyed reader will of course note that there is only one sentence, therefore the rest of your post is quite meaningless. However, let's try to explain what I think you mean;

The Vote Leave campaign was rigged by many different organisations to the extent that the outcome was false. There is a lot of evidence that this is so. (Strangely no prosecution for rigging the vote though. Perhaps not enough evidence for meeting a true test?). Any suggestion though that the Parliamentary website e-petition has been subject to 'false signatures' is clearly a fantasy. Personally I do believe that any and all means of internet communication can be subject to unwanted interference. If you want to believe it is secure then good luck to you.

Now, can you prove that there is no external interference in the e-petition? No of course you can't.
You should try to move away from 'he said, she said' style arguments, people might actually respect what you have to say then.

Goodnight, sleep tight.
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Old 24th Mar 2019, 23:00
  #6792 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Pontius Navigator View Post
Actually I wonder how many were Bots?

Seriously I wonder how many were actually tourists just wanting to experience a peaceful demonstration, or even not knowing why? Not a hundred thousand but I would guess a fair number.
That suggestion will be tested when the Leave march reaches London on March 29th. One could reasonably expect a similar number of tourists to attend.

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Old 24th Mar 2019, 23:43
  #6793 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Sallyann1234 View Post
That suggestion will be tested when the Leave march reaches London on March 29th. One could reasonably expect a similar number of tourists to attend.
From the pictures I've seen the leave march consists of around
  • 28 marchers
  • 27 journos
  • 2 times being thrown out of NT property
  • 1 closed bridge
  • 0 farridges
and that's about it. No doubt if it hasn't collapsed completely by the 29th it'll be watched by a few hundred tourists.
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Old 25th Mar 2019, 03:12
  #6794 (permalink)  
 
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I guess, while we're in a holding pattern for the next shoe to drop, I have to ask - what exactly was the original Brexit backers' plan for the NI/Eire border once it changed from an internal EU border to an external EU/UK border?

Wasn't it obvious that either 1) the GFA was up the proverbial creek without a paddle, or that 2) there was going to have to be a certain sacrifice of UK sovereignty there? Or did it just slip through the cracks?
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Old 25th Mar 2019, 03:50
  #6795 (permalink)  
 
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The freedom of movement guarantees between Northern Ireland and Eire predate membership of the EEC/EU and therefore hold greater weight. When the UK departs from the EU, the provisions of the Good Friday Agreement will still be in force as far as the British are concerned. Eire is screwed because they will have responsibility thrust upon them by the EU to deal with EU border security, the UK needs to do nothing if it do wishes.

So long as the UK makes a clean break from the EU (hard Brexit) any problems regarding the border are those that the EU and Eire choose to create for themselves.

Naturally there will be smuggling of certain goods across the border, as has always been the case. Even with both countries enjoying(?) membership of the EU, certain products were not available in Eire that were freely available in Northern Ireland. The extent to which this trade is tolerated by both governments depends on the amount of criminality associated with such trade.

If it all comes on top, I suppose the UK could do a deal with Donald Trump to have the US build a 300 mile wall between north and south, or whatever the distance is. Might be awkward with those houses that straddle the border though.
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Old 25th Mar 2019, 06:01
  #6796 (permalink)  
 
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We knew it wasn't under our control what it was going to be.

​​​​​​There was already in place free movement of people which is why Ireland isn't in Shengen and it was in before common market.

What the EU requires of its members on external borders is nothing that the UK should have anything to do with. It's up to them. But as Sweden and Norway seem to get along fine in similar conditions it's all a load of nonsense to most of us.
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Old 25th Mar 2019, 06:50
  #6797 (permalink)  
 
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Thank you both!
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Old 25th Mar 2019, 07:48
  #6798 (permalink)  
 
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When I posted 6788# last night I fully expected the full Orage D'ordure of rebuttals and scoffings from the Leave brethren. I was most surprised when logging on this morning to find that my allegations of jiggery pokery have gone completely unchallenged from that direction. This is indeed a very strange reaction. It really tells the story for itself.

Now I know that opinion polling has gone through a period of mixed fortunes with some poor forecasting, but the whole point of psephology is that you build up a picture over a period of time and a run of 150 polls over a six month period leading up to June 23 2016, that's almost one a day, all point to the same outcome. In total that is a massive sample. Then the actual result is an outlier. Statistically that really is so vanishingly small a probable outcome that the chances of it happening are probably less than winning the lottery without having bought a ticket.

This in itself is the reason why I feel that a second referendum is the only democratic option. Leave means Leave stole the result with a truly breathtaking piece of twenty first century hucksterism.
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Old 25th Mar 2019, 08:02
  #6799 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Harley Quinn View Post
Why shouldn't I turn the question round? I sense a frenzied frothing at the mouth. I have already said I can't answer the question, but it seems that, despite everything you 'know', you are in the same position. It allows you to feel justified in throwing terms like 'unicorn' around. Frankly if that is the strength of your riposte then I suggest you should go for a long walk in the fresh air. It'll help clear your head.
Right, so now we're getting somewhere. So your name calling rant was entirely fact free then, based on nothing more than a personal suspicion whereas the response in which I detailed CA & AIQ's meddling went unacknowledged, good to know if wholly unsurprising. And of you dislike the tone of the response, I suggest you make efforts to understand the basic tenet of human nature that calling people names I.e:

Originally Posted by Harley Quinn View Post
You're suggesting each and everyone of those signatures is genuine? How naive, or gullible, or downright stupid are you?


Get real, you are being played.
Is reaping what you sow save for I refrained from insulting you personally, something which is inevitably lost on some.
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Old 25th Mar 2019, 08:10
  #6800 (permalink)  
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