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UK Politics Hamsterwheel MkII

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UK Politics Hamsterwheel MkII

Old 13th Mar 2019, 01:20
  #6121 (permalink)  
 
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With just 16 days to go, a General Election is out of the question. No way of providing postal votes in that time!

In the event that the deal or some other compromise was accepted, MPs would have to debate and pass the legislation through both houses of parliament before March 29th. Never going to happen.

An extension to Article 50 might be requested but at least some members of the EU would reject the application. All the time the clock is ticking.

MPs may debate deal or no deal Brexit until they are blue in the face, but the fact remains that that is the default position enshrined in legislation going forward.

MPs may decide on the only other course of action, to cancel Brexit, at which point the civil war begins. Quite appropriate since some of the recent antics in parliament have not been witnessed since the last civil war.
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Old 13th Mar 2019, 07:01
  #6122 (permalink)  
 
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which point the civil war begins.
There aren't enough young leavers to start a civil war.

The UK will remain in the EU, markets will return to normal, Boris will be PM and it will all be forgotten in six months.
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Old 13th Mar 2019, 07:13
  #6123 (permalink)  
 
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Clareprop

By my rough maths and judicious use of google it would appear that approximately 3,000,000 people in the 18-24 age group voted FOR Brexit. That is not an insubstantial number, it’s just that the media narrative wants us to think that all Brexit voters were old.

Now, I would say that anyone up to the age of 45 could be considered ‘young’ ( I would say that, I’m 42). So that increases the number of ‘young’ Brexit voters substantially.

Don't be sure that a civil war would be so one sided!

I should also add that, according to the same media, the remain voters are more likely to be lovers than fighters (ie Liberally minded) so be careful what you wish for.

BV

Last edited by Bob Viking; 13th Mar 2019 at 07:56.
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Old 13th Mar 2019, 07:53
  #6124 (permalink)  
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Effluent Man, all anyone here does is report the polls, not dissect them. Feel free to do so if you wish.

https://uk.kantar.com/public-opinion...amentary-vote/
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Old 13th Mar 2019, 07:57
  #6125 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by clareprop View Post
There aren't enough young leavers to start a civil war.

The UK will remain in the EU, markets will return to normal, Boris will be PM and it will all be forgotten in six months.
Any civil war would have to be scheduled in before the Cup Final and the start of the Test series.....and any decent weather like wot we had last year......plus could they cope if deprived of their phones, tablets etc, etc.... fixated on various devices and oblivious to anything and anybody in their vicinity. Nope.

Boris for PM however......true, it's Boris's long cherished and favourite fantasy but, thankfully, even his own party aren't exactly rapturous over the prospect.

One is orff to stockpile bottles and petrol and rags.......well you never know.

There's one other point however. Will Treeza now get her own entry in the Guiness Book of Records for the number of failed votes in the HoC ?

Last edited by Krystal n chips; 13th Mar 2019 at 08:27.
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Old 13th Mar 2019, 08:41
  #6126 (permalink)  
 
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Civil war? Have you all lost your minds? !! That's hilarious.
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Old 13th Mar 2019, 08:48
  #6127 (permalink)  
 
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As a result, the UK is divided into the under-45s who, on balance, favour staying in the EU, and the over-45s, who want to leave.
Just over 70% of 18 to 24-year-olds who voted in the referendum backed Remain, four major academic and commercial polls conducted shortly after the ballot agree, with just under 30% backing Leave.
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-45098550

Bob V. Not sure where you get your figures from but the above is from Survation.

PS Whilst I am sure your personal outlook on life is youthful, in the political ( or indeed, manning the barricades) context, at 42 I don't think you make the cut
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Old 13th Mar 2019, 09:19
  #6128 (permalink)  
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https://www.politico.eu/article/poll...may-to-resign/

https://www.politico.eu/newsletter/l...ans-published/

SCOOP — TIME TO GO: The British public supports parliament’s decision to vote down Theresa May’s Brexit deal last night, and now believes the prime minister should resign. A snap POLITICO-Hanbury Strategy opinion poll taken after last night’s vote also shows people want MPs to take a no-deal Brexit off the table tonight, and then to back a short Article 50 extension. But the public remains badly divided on how then to proceed, with just over a third backing further negotiations in some form; just under a third backing a second referendum, and a quarter backing a no-deal Brexit. As ever with this tortuous process, there are no easy answers this morning.

Out out out: Our snap poll of 500 voters, undertaken between 8 p.m. and 11 p.m. last night, found 50 percent say Theresa May should resign in light of last night’s result, versus 32 percent who do not. These are grim numbers for the PM, although she may be heartened to see that nearly three-quarters of Conservative voters (72 percent) said she should not quit.

It’s ‘no’ to no deal: Almost half of voters (47 percent) said MPs should vote to take no deal off the table tonight, versus 35 percent who said they should not. And 44 percent said MPs should then back an extension to Article 50, versus 39 percent who said they should not. However, our polling once again shows support for a Brexit delay drops away once the extension stretches beyond three months. The kind of lengthy delay being floated by some in Brussels of a year or more is fiercely opposed by British voters.

About last night: People support parliament’s decision to reject the PM’s Brexit deal for a second time. Our poll shows 41 percent thought MPs made the right choice last night, versus 33 percent who did not. Once again, the only sweetener for Theresa May is that most Conservative voters are on her side — 56 percent said parliament should have backed the deal, versus 27 percent who did not.

Where do we go from here? Our polling has consistently shown Britain is divided roughly into thirds when picking between the main Brexit outcomes — a deal; no deal; or no Brexit — and today’s polling shows the country remains badly divided. We found 35 percent support further negotiations with the EU in some form (whether on the current deal, a softer form of Brexit, or with a new PM at the helm); 29 percent support a second referendum; and 25 percent support a no-deal outcome............

Back to Brussels: The important point to remember then is that an extension of Article 50 needs unanimous approval of all 27 other EU member countries. And as my POLITICO colleague David Herszenhorn reports, all the noise coming out of Brussels this morning is there will be no more negotiation — and that an extension will only be granted if Britain explains its next steps. “I don’t think the EU27 should do anything anymore,” an EU diplomat tells him. “It should simply wait for U.K. to decide by March 29. If the U.K. asks for an extension, it should specify what the purpose would be. If it would be only for continuation of the present ping-pong, I don’t think we should agree.”

Decision time? There is an acceptance too within Whitehall that the PM will need some sort of concrete plan if she heads to next week’s EU Council summit in search of an extension. “That will be the price of doing business,” a senior government source told Playbook. “The truth is they can put what they like on the table — because at that point they hold the ball.” Speaking in the Commons, Andrea Leadsom made a similar point to MPs. “It will be for the EU unanimously to agree to [any] extension proposal,” she said. “To be very clear about that, there may well be conditions imposed that this House would not wish to accept, and we all need to be open-eyed about that fact.”





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Old 13th Mar 2019, 09:31
  #6129 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by ORAC View Post
Effluent Man, all anyone here does is report the polls, not dissect them. Feel free to do so if you wish.

https://uk.kantar.com/public-opinion...amentary-vote/
You are rather selective in what you have posted from that piece of research. The same research shows a substantial margin for remain over leave were there to be another referendum, and a big increase in those who say wouldn't vote (which is appalling given the gravity of such a vote, were it to ever happen).

To watch BBC Breakfast this morning you wouldn't believe such a margin given the voxpops from Luton and Bolton, the former done in a pool club, the latter in a market. What does come across is that the people most vociferously pro a no deal Brexit appear to be in socioeconomic groups D and C2, but reporters never ask them the difficult question "how would you feel if, as a direct result of such a no deal Brexit, you lost your job, or had your hours cut?"
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Old 13th Mar 2019, 09:34
  #6130 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Right Way Up View Post
Please don't, just reading your post has given me a migraine
I agree, but I would be curious to know what he voted to join in 1973?
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Old 13th Mar 2019, 09:38
  #6131 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by flash8 View Post
absolutely no doubt BJ is "on manoeuvres".
Don't want to worry you all, but saw BJ on the box last night, I think, didn't recognise him. Appeared to have lost weight, shirt in, and had a haircut.
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Old 13th Mar 2019, 09:47
  #6132 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by Bob Viking View Post
Now, I would say that anyone up to the age of 45 could be considered ‘young’ ( I would say that, I’m 42). So that increases the number of ‘young’ Brexit voters substantially
Indeed, one daughter and both son s in law voted leave.
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Old 13th Mar 2019, 09:48
  #6133 (permalink)  
 
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As a Brit living in the EU, this is like watching a car crash in slow motion knowing that you are going to be hit and injured by the debris and able to do nothing to protect yourself!
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Old 13th Mar 2019, 09:50
  #6134 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Pontius Navigator View Post
Don't want to worry you all, but saw BJ on the box last night, I think, didn't recognise him. Appeared to have lost weight, shirt in, and had a haircut.
Doesn't he have a new, much younger woman in tow? That probably has more to do with it than any leadership aspirations which he has always harboured. On the leadership front I wouldn't touch it with a bargepole at the moment, he doesn't want to fall into the ever deepening hole that Mrs. May is digging, not to mention trying to lead an almost totally dysfunctional political party.
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Old 13th Mar 2019, 09:53
  #6135 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by ATNotts View Post
never ask them the difficult question "how would you feel if, as a direct result of such a no deal Brexit, you lost your job, or had your hours cut?"
Because that is a loaded closed question the answer is obvious.

" I would feel liberated, I would welcome my universal credit and extra leisure time"

"Do you think you might lose your job or have your hours cut" might be better but is still a closed question the answer to which is probably "no".
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Old 13th Mar 2019, 09:56
  #6136 (permalink)  
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I see the FTSE has reacted - not a lot.

Yet.
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Old 13th Mar 2019, 10:10
  #6137 (permalink)  
 
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One of the many flies in the Brexit ointment is the issue of the European elections due in May if Art50 is extended. There would be uproar if the U.K. participated from Brexiteers, however if held on the same day as a general election, so virtually all campaigning would be for that, with the Euro ballot paper as a free extra handout that uproar might well be muted outside of the political chattering classes. Also, our large supermarket friend (among others) seems to think that the legislation delaying Brexit couldn’t go through in time if an election was called. I don’t believe that to be correct, as it is normal when an election is called for a week or so being spent tidying up outstanding legislation prior to dissolving Parliament.

Possible timeline:
MPs vote tonight against ‘no deal’ on March 29th (unless an amendment to rule it out indefinitely is approved.
MPs vote tomorrow for an Art50 extension
EU27 tells May that a longer extension (the often mentioned 21 months) is all they will approve
May decides the only course of action is to call an election to try and break the impasse
Legislation is passed to change the Art50 date in law - given the current numbers in Parliament this could be done quickly as the opposition would go for it, and the ERG and DUP on their own are a small minority so can’t stop it
The 2/3rds majority is achieved to call a general election
Parliament is dissolved at the end of April
Combined General and Euro election on May 23rd.

Then the fun really starts - Tories and Labour would need to mention Brexit in their manifesto. In the current climate is there any chance that either could agree something that all candidates could get behind? If the TIG get some more MPs, especially bigger names, and coordinate with the Lib Dems effectively enough, can they build a big enough band wagon to create a hung Parliament? If they can, no prizes for guessing their price for entering a coalition - starts with R and ends with M!
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Old 13th Mar 2019, 10:12
  #6138 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Pontius Navigator View Post
Indeed, one daughter and both son s in law voted leave.
Are they willing to run around the streets shooting treasonous remainers with guns they've presumably acquired from Gavin Williamson? Since that's the thrust of this loony strand.
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Old 13th Mar 2019, 10:15
  #6139 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Pontius Navigator View Post
Because that is a loaded closed question the answer is obvious.

" I would feel liberated, I would welcome my universal credit and extra leisure time"

"Do you think you might lose your job or have your hours cut" might be better but is still a closed question the answer to which is probably "no".
No it's not, asking a question with the word "how" is an open question, as it cannot be answered by yes or no. There are a range of possible answers to what is a very plausible situation. Some might say, "it's a price worth paying", some "I blame the government", some "It's all the EU's fault. It would be interesting to find out how people would react in the event of such unfortunate circumstances.
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Old 13th Mar 2019, 10:31
  #6140 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Curious Pax View Post
If they can, no prizes for guessing their price for entering a coalition - starts with R and ends with M!
I give up - and I thought I was good at crosswords.

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