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UK Politics Hamsterwheel MkII

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UK Politics Hamsterwheel MkII

Old 12th Mar 2019, 11:01
  #6061 (permalink)  
 
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Well, Cox would say that, wouldn't he? I can smell a stitch up.
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Old 12th Mar 2019, 11:29
  #6062 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Effluent Man View Post
Well, Cox would say that, wouldn't he? I can smell a stitch up.
The Iraq war. Goldsmith.
Deja vu anyone?
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Old 12th Mar 2019, 12:10
  #6063 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Sallyann1234 View Post
Well on the basis that any deal at all is better than no deal, I hope it works.
Completely agree. It may well not be exactly what leave voters wanted but this really is it. Nothing better is available at this stage.

I really do hope that it gets approved by the HoC and then the far more important stage which is the future relationship with the EU can start to be negotiated.
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Old 12th Mar 2019, 12:15
  #6064 (permalink)  
 
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Rumpoles advice: Your still f***** !
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Old 12th Mar 2019, 12:16
  #6065 (permalink)  
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
 
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https://www.gov.uk/government/public...awal-agreement

Legal Opinion on Joint Instrument and Unilateral Declaration concerning the Withdrawal Agreement

19. However, the legal risk remains unchanged that if through no such demonstrable failure of either party, but simply because of intractable differences, that situation does arise, the United Kingdom would have, at least while the fundamental circumstances remained the same, no internationally lawful means of exiting the Protocolís arrangements, save by agreement.
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Old 12th Mar 2019, 12:17
  #6066 (permalink)  
 
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Awaiting Pickford's van in Downing street.


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Old 12th Mar 2019, 12:41
  #6067 (permalink)  
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
 
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Old 12th Mar 2019, 12:44
  #6068 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Stan Woolley View Post


The Iraq war. Goldsmith.
Deja vu anyone?
Maybe there is a God after all.
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Old 12th Mar 2019, 12:53
  #6069 (permalink)  
 
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The Attorney General's advice puts us right back where we were before last night, and it's done roughly the same to the value of the pound too, but whatever the advice the question remains the same.

If MPs don't want the latest version of the agreement, and will likely vote against a no deal Brexit, what do they want? There are only two options, the deal, or no deal and they appear destined to vote against both! Going back to Brussels has been absolutely ruled out by Juncker, he was crystal clear on that at last night's press conference and presumably he's speaking for he EU.
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Old 12th Mar 2019, 12:54
  #6070 (permalink)  
 
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No deal is better than any deal currently proposed. From a selection of unplatable outcomes, hard Brexit IS the least worst option.
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Old 12th Mar 2019, 13:19
  #6071 (permalink)  
 
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Junker is politician at heart so he too will be playing some kind of game.

As for the Ag pity he hasnt spent as much time on the scale of illegality in the leave campaign, thats far far more important to British Democracy than NI is.

Quitters should just say we want to leave NI you can stay or go but you cannot influence the deal. Here we have a situation where a tiny group of MPs representing a third of the NI assembly in a 'country half the size of Wales having grossly undue influence over the whole process-its obscene .

Of course now we have the IRA rearing their ugly head again but can you blame them they are just another long line of people we have betrayed or broken promises to, in this case its all the people of NI who have lived in peace for years having it all put at risk by the (F--king) English something I am increasingly ashamed/embarrased to be
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Old 12th Mar 2019, 13:27
  #6072 (permalink)  
 
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May's deal is dead, we need to accept this. Brussels haven't blinked & they will have done the calculations leading me to conclude I don't believe they will. That leaves no deal, parliament won't vote for that - sorry headbangers - therefore the options are soft Brexit, referendum or long extension. Revocation is the simplest escape but too inflammatory & a GE just prolongs the agony in my view.
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Old 12th Mar 2019, 13:37
  #6073 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Parapunter View Post
May's deal is dead, we need to accept this. Brussels haven't blinked & they will have done the calculations leading me to conclude I don't believe they will. That leaves no deal, parliament won't vote for that - sorry headbangers - therefore the options are soft Brexit, referendum or long extension. Revocation is the simplest escape but too inflammatory & a GE just prolongs the agony in my view.
How do we get to a soft Brexit? May can't propose it, she'll lose the ERG, DUP and with it her slim majority to govern. A new leader of the Tories would likely be an ardent leaver, and certainly wouldn't, but then again would lose half their party if they went for their preferred option of no deal.

That leaves a GE, referendum, or long extension. The latter would require elections to the European Parliament, which neither of the major parties is prepared for, and many voters (more so than usual) would likely boycott the elections. A GE will achieve little, which leaves a referendum.

Talk of rocks and hard places!
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Old 12th Mar 2019, 13:47
  #6074 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by ATNotts View Post
which leaves a referendum.
Which may very well produce another inconclusive or very narrow outcome, before you add in manipulation which has undoubtedly been swept under the carpet on the last one. It's hard to disagree with the assessments, which leads one to the inescapable conclusion that in the absence of compromise, we have a roughly even split in the country & what the government is trying to achieve is in effect, unachievable.

..Which some of us have been saying forever & a day.
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Old 12th Mar 2019, 13:56
  #6075 (permalink)  
 
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Lets assume one way or the other we do leave-or are thrown out , hundreds and hundreds of EU laws remain on our statute book for the perfectly good reason that some are perfectly good laws that dont upset even the most ardent Quitter and of the others cannot all be replicated overnight. So the arrangement always was transfer everything EU to our system and then pass laws to change the ones we dont like ,

But the Government has to get all those changes through parliament , Labour brexit MPs are not going to vote with the Tories on dilution of workers rights and protections and they will vote against as will enough remainers Tory MPs. next up comes an issue that many conservative MPs dislike -they will vote against their party and Labour MPs who voted for Brexit are not going to vote for Tory ideas so that wont pass either.

So how will any Government get any revision to Euro legislation through Parliament anyway Which will mean we have spent Billions on the mechanics of leaving and get nothing for it and most laws remain exactly the same anyway

On the administrative front we can make all the changes we like to immigration legislation but will not enforce it. skilled educated ethnically similar EU citizens wont come here because we are seen as regressive and racist but desperate Africans will still flock here because we dont have the resources to stop them and they dont care about breaking the law because for many its worth taking the risk . So thats going to upset the UKIP wing of the quitters many of whom have lost their jobs by this time and still see 'black faces' everywhere .

So in five years time only Mr Rees Mogg will be happy , a gentleman who when questioned on TV about being rich and who has squirrelled his family trust away to Ireland because it is in the EU said my wealth is on no concern to anyone else-well mate it is if you are an MP getting rich at the expense of half the nation -there s a word for people like you TRAITOR .



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Old 12th Mar 2019, 14:23
  #6076 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Parapunter View Post
Which may very well produce another inconclusive or very narrow outcome, before you add in manipulation which has undoubtedly been swept under the carpet on the last one. It's hard to disagree with the assessments, which leads one to the inescapable conclusion that in the absence of compromise, we have a roughly even split in the country & what the government is trying to achieve is in effect, unachievable.

..Which some of us have been saying forever & a day.
As a remainer, I am not the slightest bit convinced that remain would win any new referendum, and were leave to win there is no shadow of doubt in my mind that the UK would effectively crash out of the EU with no deal unless May's agreement were on the ballot paper as the only alternative to remain, so the stakes would be very high. Why am I so pessimistic? Because the UK print media is largely, in terms of copies of their rags sold, overwhelmingly ardent supporters of leave, and as previously, whilst both parties are divided, Corbyn would pretend to be on one side, when in reality he's on the other and could not be relied upon to support remain wholeheartedly. Which side of the fence would Theresa May come down on? Who knows, but I would expect she'd say she was in favour of leave, whilst really voting remain - the mirror image of Corbyn. They are, on Brexit, peas in a pod.

Whatever the outcome in terms of a winner or a loser, the result would be unlikely to be decisive. 60 / 40 either way is pure fantasy. The outcome would be divisive, and the country still divided, perhaps more so than it is now. I am struggling how ever to see how else the whole affair can be settled.
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Old 12th Mar 2019, 14:36
  #6077 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by ATNotts View Post
As a remainer, I am not the slightest bit convinced that remain would win any new referendum, and were leave to win there is no shadow of doubt in my mind that the UK would effectively crash out of the EU with no deal unless May's agreement were on the ballot paper as the only alternative to remain, so the stakes would be very high. Why am I so pessimistic? Because the UK print media is largely, in terms of copies of their rags sold, overwhelmingly ardent supporters of leave, and as previously, whilst both parties are divided, Corbyn would pretend to be on one side, when in reality he's on the other and could not be relied upon to support remain wholeheartedly. Which side of the fence would Theresa May come down on? Who knows, but I would expect she'd say she was in favour of leave, whilst really voting remain - the mirror image of Corbyn. They are, on Brexit, peas in a pod.

Whatever the outcome in terms of a winner or a loser, the result would be unlikely to be decisive. 60 / 40 either way is pure fantasy. The outcome would be divisive, and the country still divided, perhaps more so than it is now. I am struggling how ever to see how else the whole affair can be settled.
You're right of course. Which is why I've never supported the idea of another referendum.

The country jumped off the cliff in 2016 and there was never any way back. No parachute. No cushions. Just the rocks at the bottom.
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Old 12th Mar 2019, 14:45
  #6078 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by ATNotts View Post
Whatever the outcome in terms of a winner or a loser, the result would be unlikely to be decisive. 60 / 40 either way is pure fantasy. The outcome would be divisive, and the country still divided, perhaps more so than it is now. I am struggling how ever to see how else the whole affair can be settled.
Indeed.

Whatever the final outcome, the UK has effectively broken its back over Brexit. We are a nation left divided and bitter, where even the least cynical now have a seriously damaged belief in our leaders' competence, and we have become a laughing stock before the rest of the World. All over a battle that did not really need to be fought.
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Old 12th Mar 2019, 14:49
  #6079 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by pax britanica View Post
Lets assume one way or the other we do leave-or are thrown out , hundreds and hundreds of EU laws remain on our statute book for the perfectly good reason that some are perfectly good laws that dont upset even the most ardent Quitter and of the others cannot all be replicated overnight. So the arrangement always was transfer everything EU to our system and then pass laws to change the ones we dont like ,

But the Government has to get all those changes through parliament , Labour brexit MPs are not going to vote with the Tories on dilution of workers rights and protections and they will vote against as will enough remainers Tory MPs. next up comes an issue that many conservative MPs dislike -they will vote against their party and Labour MPs who voted for Brexit are not going to vote for Tory ideas so that wont pass either.

So how will any Government get any revision to Euro legislation through Parliament anyway Which will mean we have spent Billions on the mechanics of leaving and get nothing for it and most laws remain exactly the same anyway

On the administrative front we can make all the changes we like to immigration legislation but will not enforce it. skilled educated ethnically similar EU citizens wont come here because we are seen as regressive and racist but desperate Africans will still flock here because we dont have the resources to stop them and they dont care about breaking the law because for many its worth taking the risk . So thats going to upset the UKIP wing of the quitters many of whom have lost their jobs by this time and still see 'black faces' everywhere .

So in five years time only Mr Rees Mogg will be happy , a gentleman who when questioned on TV about being rich and who has squirrelled his family trust away to Ireland because it is in the EU said my wealth is on no concern to anyone else-well mate it is if you are an MP getting rich at the expense of half the nation -there s a word for people like you TRAITOR .
Ah, but you'll have blue passports. Living the dream!
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Old 12th Mar 2019, 14:50
  #6080 (permalink)  
 
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Sallyann

I don't either, but nor do I support a no deal Brexit which is why I have come to the conclusion that Mrs. May's agreement, even version 1.0, is the only logical (not sensible) way to proceed given the 2016 debacle.

As the shadow coalition government (the ERG and DUP) who really run the show have decided version 1.1 is not acceptable the vote is going to be lost tonight, tomorrow MPs will vote against a no deal brexit, and Thursday......who knows.
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