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UK Politics Hamsterwheel MkII

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UK Politics Hamsterwheel MkII

Old 9th Mar 2019, 07:49
  #5921 (permalink)  
 
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No Article 50 extension? Well that simplifies things a lot. We just cancel. I can't honestly say that people like my brother and his wife in their mid 70's will be out in the streets protesting. They will grumble but on the sort of scale they would if the supply of Werther's Originals was interrupted.
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Old 9th Mar 2019, 10:42
  #5922 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Effluent Man View Post
No Article 50 extension? Well that simplifies things a lot. We just cancel.
EM, do you see revoking Article 50 as a likely outcome, would anyone in Westminster actually go down this path, be able to win such a proposal, and actually carry it out?
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Old 9th Mar 2019, 12:00
  #5923 (permalink)  
 
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“We just cancel..”? Is that even remotely deliverable by anyone?

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Old 9th Mar 2019, 12:06
  #5924 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by ShotOne View Post
“We just cancel..”? Is that even remotely deliverable by anyone?
Yes. The various court cases make it clear that it is completely deliverable by May - she just has to sign a letter.
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Old 9th Mar 2019, 12:17
  #5925 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Gertrude the Wombat View Post
Yes. The various court cases make it clear that it is completely deliverable by May - she just has to sign a letter.
As I asked EM, we know what can happen and how it can be achieved, the question was: has this any chance of actually being carried out and Article 50 revoked, not just what some people want to happen, just is it likely to actually happen.
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Old 9th Mar 2019, 12:35
  #5926 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Exrigger View Post
As I asked EM, we know what can happen and how it can be achieved, the question was: has this any chance of actually being carried out and Article 50 revoked, not just what some people want to happen, just is it likely to actually happen.
That's a separate question. It is, technically, deliverable by May, but that doesn't mean she's likely to do it.
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Old 9th Mar 2019, 12:46
  #5927 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Gertrude the Wombat View Post
That's a separate question. It is, technically, deliverable by May, but that doesn't mean she's likely to do it.
Thank you, so the answer is it is not likely that Article 50 will be revoked voluntarily by May.

Secondary to that; does anyone believe that May will be forced into revoking Article 50 through a Private Members Bill being approved, or by other means?
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Old 9th Mar 2019, 13:53
  #5928 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Exrigger View Post
As I asked EM, we know what can happen and how it can be achieved, the question was: has this any chance of actually being carried out and Article 50 revoked, not just what some people want to happen, just is it likely to actually happen.
It won't happen at the behest of parliament, they are by and large too cowardly to vote to cancel Art.50, even though to do so would be in the best interests of the UK. If there is a desire to see it revoked it will be done via an amendment for a new referendum. I can't see Theresa May putting forward a bill for a new vote without such an amendment being forced through. There is little doubt that the EU would allow an extension for a referendum or a general election; I think it is very unlikely the EU would allow a short extension just so May and her merry band can kick the can further down the road so things really could come to a head this week.
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Old 9th Mar 2019, 14:13
  #5929 (permalink)  
 
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Control seems likely to be stripped from her clutches. If the DUP lose faith in her there could easily be a vote of no confidence.
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Old 9th Mar 2019, 14:22
  #5930 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Mr Optimistic View Post
Control seems likely to be stripped from her clutches. If the DUP lose faith in her there could easily be a vote of no confidence.
But what would be the advantage to the DUP in ditching May? They then lose their remaining influence on government.
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Old 9th Mar 2019, 14:22
  #5931 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Mr Optimistic View Post
Control seems likely to be stripped from her clutches. If the DUP lose faith in her there could easily be a vote of no confidence.
There is the distinct possibility that Mrs May could turn around to the commons and invite such a vote if (when) her deal fails again on Tuesday. After all, Labour haven't got a clue what their policy on Brexit (or no Brexit) is; and the the "Tiggers" haven't got themselves organised into a party yet. A GE may just work in the Tory's favour, and at the end of the day May is more concerned about the Tory party than she is about the country.

A GE won't solve anything Brexit-wise but it would allow some further can-kicking, and that is about the only policy May's government has on Brexit.
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Old 9th Mar 2019, 14:58
  #5932 (permalink)  
 
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A GE is a high risk strategy at the moment. Several things could happen. The most obvious is a Tory government returned with a good working majority. Personally I think that Labour would lose seats whatever the outcome. The unknown quantity is any cooperation between the LD's and TiGs. Cable is obviously open to this and a deal might emerge where LD candidates stand aside in all the seats where they are in third place or lower. Then a direct appeal for Remainer votes could well start a bandwagon.
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Old 9th Mar 2019, 15:52
  #5933 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by Gertrude the Wombat View Post
There's some tolerable Oz stuff, but I've never come across anything English - specifically what do you recommend?
off hand I don't know the name but some recently was rated higher than champagne. At least outside the EU they can call it English Champagne.
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Old 9th Mar 2019, 16:08
  #5934 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Effluent Man View Post
A GE is a high risk strategy at the moment. Several things could happen. The most obvious is a Tory government returned with a good working majority. Personally I think that Labour would lose seats whatever the outcome. The unknown quantity is any cooperation between the LD's and TiGs. Cable is obviously open to this and a deal might emerge where LD candidates stand aside in all the seats where they are in third place or lower. Then a direct appeal for Remainer votes could well start a bandwagon.
As the TiGs are not an official party, who are they going to stand for? I am not sure they would be returned in their current constituencies. Would any party trust them to stick by a manifesto that they say they would stand with?
There is a possibility that a GE could see none of them returned as sitting MPs.
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Old 9th Mar 2019, 16:22
  #5935 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by ATNotts View Post
If there is a desire to see it revoked it will be done via an amendment for a new referendum. I can't see Theresa May putting forward a bill for a new vote without such an amendment being forced through. There is little doubt that the EU would allow an extension for a referendum or a general election; I think it is very unlikely the EU would allow a short extension just so May and her merry band can kick the can further down the road so things really could come to a head this week.
That begs another question, or two: What is the likelihood of another referendum/GE/or both being called before the end of the month and a delay requested to await outcome?

Again, not wanting peoples views/wants are on the subject, as we are all well aware of those, just whether any or all of the above are likely, or not.

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Old 9th Mar 2019, 16:26
  #5936 (permalink)  
 
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Calling a General Election would result in the suspension of parliament. As it would be impossible to hold an election and declare the results before the 29th of March, the UK would have left the EU by default with no legislative body to propose amendments to, or cancellation of, Article 50. In any case, it is not within Theresa May's power to unilaterally decide to cancel Article 50. Any such action would require royal assent and the unanimous cooperation of the EU. For the Royal Family that really would be a case of turkeys voting in favour of Christmas and the EU have no interest in prolonging the Brexit process, only in cancelling it completely or ensuring the UK becomes a vassal state.
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Old 9th Mar 2019, 16:27
  #5937 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by The Nip View Post
As the TiGs are not an official party, who are they going to stand for? I am not sure they would be returned in their current constituencies. Would any party trust them to stick by a manifesto that they say they would stand with?
There is a possibility that a GE could see none of them returned as sitting MPs.
They are not an official party but have said they intend to register.
If an election was declared you can be sure they would apply to register if that can be done in time.

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Old 9th Mar 2019, 16:31
  #5938 (permalink)  
 
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There is of course that possibility. Nevertheless their political position would potentially draw support from disaffected anti Corbyn Labour supporters as well as centre/left Tories. Add to that the fact that Remainers tend to be centre ground supporters anyway and the nucleus of voter support potentially has legs. Early polling has suggested that support for the TiG's is as high as 23%. That level of support begins to threaten the FPTP duopoly. If support reaches that level during an election campaign then a breakthrough becomes very likely.
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Old 9th Mar 2019, 16:31
  #5939 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Exrigger View Post
That begs another question, or two: What is the likelihood of another referendum/GE/or both being called before the end of the month and a delay requested to await outcome?

Again, not wanting peoples views/wants are on the subject, as we are all well aware of those, just whether any or all of the above are likely, or not.
The EU have made it clear that they would gladly hold back on Art.50 if a major change of circumstances occurred - such as an election. Whether they can suspend it without a formal request from the UK would be one for the lawyers.
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Old 9th Mar 2019, 16:34
  #5940 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by Effluent Man View Post
There is of course that possibility. Nevertheless their political position would potentially draw support from disaffected anti Corbyn Labour supporters as well as centre/left Tories. Add to that the fact that Remainers tend to be centre ground supporters anyway and the nucleus of voter support potentially has legs. Early polling has suggested that support for the TiG's is as high as 23%. That level of support begins to threaten the FPTP duopoly. If support reaches that level during an election campaign then a breakthrough becomes very likely.
I'm pretty sure the SDP had similar numbers but not sufficiently concentrated to actually have any effect.
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