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UK Politics Hamsterwheel MkII

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UK Politics Hamsterwheel MkII

Old 11th Feb 2019, 07:49
  #4401 (permalink)  
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GTW, two simple questions.

What will cause the price of Moroccan raspberries, Chillean blueberries, Peruvian asparagus, and Kenyan beans to cost more?

Will Polish and Spanish fruiterers allow their imports to our market to become uncompetitive?

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Old 11th Feb 2019, 08:10
  #4402 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by pax britanica View Post
. . . possibly losign your job all in the name of a ludicrous hundred years out of date view . . .
all the Mail reading old fools are dead or senile they will rejoin and dance on your grave. Actually they will probably do something else for ******* up
I have abridged your rant for rant it is. You seem to attribute the problems to a particular group readers of a particular newspaper. Three of my children/husbands do not fit your profile though I allow my mother in law does.

It would seem a further exponent of Project Fear.

Now on job losses, I allow you may have a case as the Germans are waking up to this with potentially 15,000 (not 30,000) job losses in their motor industry.
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Old 11th Feb 2019, 08:20
  #4403 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by ATNotts View Post
Just watched that through, brilliant!! Proof if proof were needed that the Germans do have a sense of humour. Actually it wasn't so much a piece of amusing satire, more a pretty accurate illustrations of where we re now, how we've got here, and how mind numbingly stupid and uninformed some of the vox pops that we see on TV are.

Thank you very much for posting it.
There is more on Brexit by that funny German TV show available, some of it with subtitles. My two favourites: Brits stockpiling Viagra to prepare for a hard brexit and the trouble with replacing the 3000 imported semen specimen from Denmark with, err, homegrown produce.


Most recent one:
Before the referendum:
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Old 11th Feb 2019, 08:33
  #4404 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Pontius Navigator View Post
Now on job losses, I allow you may have a case as the Germans are waking up to this with potentially 15,000 (not 30,000) job losses in their motor industry.
That would be 1,8 per cent of all employees in that industry. Not too bad given the alleged dependency of the German industry from Brits buying German cars.

As has been mentioned here before, Germany currently enjoys the lowest unemployment rate in the past 30 years and many companies are having difficulties to hire staff, particularly skilled workers. Currently there are 800.000 vacancies on the German job market (note: despite all those EU migrants and refugees...), so I am not sure that 15.000 jobs in the motor industry will bring down Germany.
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Old 11th Feb 2019, 08:52
  #4405 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by virginblue View Post
That would be 1,8 per cent of all employees in that industry. Not too bad given the alleged dependency of the German industry from Brits buying German cars.

As has been mentioned here before, Germany currently enjoys the lowest unemployment rate in the past 30 years and many companies are having difficulties to hire staff, particularly skilled workers. Currently there are 800.000 vacancies on the German job market (note: despite all those EU migrants and refugees...), so I am not sure that 15.000 jobs in the motor industry will bring down Germany.
And once again, those job losses assume that all car exports to the UK will stop. Which won't be the case.
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Old 11th Feb 2019, 09:08
  #4406 (permalink)  
 
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Germany currently enjoys the lowest unemployment rate in the past 30 years and many companies are having difficulties to hire staff, particularly skilled workers. Currently there are 800.000 vacancies on the German job market (note: despite all those EU migrants and refugees...), so I am not sure that 15.000 jobs in the motor industry will bring down Germany.
This is the big problem that Germany has and one of the reason why its vital that the federalisation continues and accelerates in the EU they have already lost 3 years due to the UK. Free movement is also extremely important.

They have a huge burden of aging population and not breeding to maintaining the working population. Not enough workers then the market forces force wages up. Which means you become uncompetitive. The immigrants they are getting are not in the medium/high skill bracket and the ones they are getting aren't true immigrants ie they are not bring the kids and adding to the population they come they work, send the cash home and then leave when they have made enough cash. Also the German guilds and education system limits who can do certain jobs.

they are looking at loosing 7.5 million off the work force by 2025.

https://www.destatis.de/EN/Publicati...ublicationFile

UK and France on the other hand are breeding enough to replace the working population as it retires.
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Old 11th Feb 2019, 09:11
  #4407 (permalink)  
 
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On the plus side my three year old Merc may actually go up in value if the price of a new car increases.
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Old 11th Feb 2019, 09:16
  #4408 (permalink)  
 
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You really ought to tell the Germans what a terrible state they are in, tesco. The ones I talk to on a daily basis are very confident in their future. Of course, you know better...

UK and France on the other hand are breeding enough to replace the working population as it retires.
And many of the brightest are going abroad to find a better future.
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Old 11th Feb 2019, 09:23
  #4409 (permalink)  
 
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Be interesting to see the financial report from Germany on Thursday then, as it is forecasted that they may be in recession like Italy.
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Old 11th Feb 2019, 09:23
  #4410 (permalink)  
 
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Europe, is behaving like, for e.g., organised crime, Islam, ruthless dictatorships and i could go on. All these and others don't want you leave and will do their best to keep you in. To the point it will be very "painful" for one to even attempt to do so. Are these organisations good or evil? One word describes. You decide..

UK parliament. They have spent 2 years and still argueing ammong themselves to make good the will of the people. This is why I have no faith now, in the mainstream parties in UK politics. Democracy? Gimme a break.

Answer? Stay away. On hang on, the people were hood winked into joining this mob. Stealth since 1973.
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Old 11th Feb 2019, 09:36
  #4411 (permalink)  
 
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Right then, I see we're onto trade benefits of Brexit. Let's have a look at that. Liam Fox said we can do our own trade deals after we leave (true) with countries where and this is a direct quote '90% of growth will come from'. The 90% number is taken directly from the EU's own official statistic from the next 10-20 years.

The trouble is the length & rate of those growth figures vary depending on who you take them from. Fox said last year it was calculated by the Department of International Trade using the September 2017 WEO database. There is no September 2017 WEO database. This is important because if you look back into the provenance of the claim, you can see clearly the first estimate of 88% comes from a 2012 EU commissioned report based on short term IMF figures which it makes clear are tentative. The second claim Fox bases his 90% number on is from an Eu report on IMF WEO short term figures from a 2015 database which does exist.



Worth noting Brexit campaigners consistently claimed the IMF was wrong & politically compromised but hey ho. Now, much of this growth comes from trade deals agreed by the EU. The EEA deal covers 11% of growth. EU FTA's around the world take it to 24%. Deals awaiting signature bring it to 28% Add in service only agreements & we're up to 31% Add all of the countries the EU is actively negotiating with, including Mercosur, the USA, Australia and New Zealand, we can only get to 49.9%. So where is the other 40%? It's in China and the US. And this is important because we are setting course on a trade policy that predicates our future prosperity on just two countries & that is a problem.

Fox's predictions fail to take account of either China's slowdown even though it's already being felt here (£££bn JLR loss) & America's gathering trade war that means the United States include trade agreement provisions with third countries that require other countries to notify them before signing similar agreements with China.


And while India and China are the first and second biggest contributors to global growth, the third is the European Union, and the fourth, fifth and sixth (US, Indonesia, Brazil & japan) the EU is currently negotiating with. So, since we're having major difficulties agreeing withdrawal from the EU let alone any future trade arrangements, this begs the question, we will be able to reproduce agreements we currently benefit from (for the next six weeks or so anyway)?

If we leave without a deal, the governments own assessments suggest we will go from preferential access to 35% of the world's GDP to about 8%. As a much smaller market than where we are today, as an EU member, we will bring much less firepower to any future negotiations & already in discussions, we have seen the Japanese indicate they want better terms than they have agreed recently with the EU. This is real life. Anyone who has worked in commerce knows this, the big fish eat the little fish, that is how it works.

The good news is we're committed to negotiations with the US, New Zealand & Australia. Less welcome, so are the EU & even with the most Polyannaish outlook of the typical Brexit cheerleader, it's difficult not to see significant political hurdles in the near future. We've already seen Spain make noises over Gibraltar, Macron allude to fishing rights & the Mercosur nations writing the Argentinian claim to the Falklands into their constitution. The Falklands are a case in point. 70% of their trade depends on the EU, the biggest export is Calamari which is tariff sensitive. No deal would mean they're in serious trouble & while Argentina & the other Mercosur nations are willing to offer market access, you can bet sovereignty will be on the table at the same time.

I'm not saying deals can't be done, but while others bizarrely concern themselves with German cars & immigrants, driven as they are by the need to undermine Europe at every opportunity as a perverse means of justifying their own thoughtless acts of recklessness, they would be better off focusing on the very real problems that are right around the corner.
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Old 11th Feb 2019, 09:43
  #4412 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by tescoapp View Post
This is the big problem that Germany has and one of the reason why its vital that the federalisation continues and accelerates in the EU they have already lost 3 years due to the UK. Free movement is also extremely important.

UK and France on the other hand are breeding enough to replace the working population as it retires.
Well, the most recent statistiscs are not too encouraging in the fertility department:

28.4% of live births in 2017 were to mothers born outside the UK, following a gradual rise from 11.6% in 1990. The percentage of live births in England and Wales to mothers born outside the UK continued to rise in 2017, reaching 28.4%; this compares with 28.2% in 2016 and is the highest level on record (figures available back to 1969). The percentage of live births to non-UK-born mothers has increased gradually every year since 1990, when it was 11.6%.In recent years, the percentage of births to women born outside the UK has been higher than the percentage of the female population of childbearing age born outside the UK. There are two reasons for this:
  • fertility levels are generally higher among foreign-born women, therefore they are likely to have more babies than UK-born women
    the populations of foreign-born and UK-born females at reproductive age have different age structures, with a higher proportion of foreign-born women being aged from 25 to 34 years, where fertility is highest
Wonder what effect "regain control of our borders" will have on reproduction in the UK as the UK's finest apparently are underperforming as far as pelvis movements are concerned. Despite the overperforming foreign-born women:

There were 679,106 live births in England and Wales in 2017, a decrease of 2.5% from 2016 and the lowest number of live births since 2006.

In 2017, the total fertility rate (TFR) declined for the fifth consecutive year to 1.76 children per woman, from 1.81 in 2016.
While the UK sufffered a 2,5 per cent decline in births, Germany recently enjoyed a 7 per cent increase, by the way.
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Old 11th Feb 2019, 09:45
  #4413 (permalink)  
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" not breeding to maintaining the working population"

Erm, you do seem to have a certain obsession, this from the prominence of the word in your posts with...breeding.
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Old 11th Feb 2019, 09:55
  #4414 (permalink)  
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Old 11th Feb 2019, 10:14
  #4415 (permalink)  
 
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They know fine what's going to happen at government level, that's a German site that I linked to because otherwise it will be said it's project fear.

It was know about 25 odd years ago when the birth-rate started dropping significantly. They did hope that east and west reunifying would help matters but it didn't.

And the ones that I speak to daily also think everything is going to be great.... but they are the ones that will be still working when the bulge is going through. One or two are clued up and shall we say are concerned how things are going to pan out.

They were talking housing prices collapsing, city's emptying and struggles with pensions being paid and people to look after the old.

There were 679,106 live births in England and Wales in 2017, a decrease of 2.5% from 2016 and the lowest number of live births since 2006.
Its the UK not England and Wales. Anyway it doesn't matter what a leave support says you will always find a way to say its a load of rubbish even if it comes from Germany itself.

Doesn't really matter anyway its not going to change anything that's going to happen in the next 46 days. And then we can see who's predictions were works of fiction and who's weren't

They are not in a terrible state yet... but as above states they are starting to struggle finding labour to fill jobs and they have got no where near the bulge yet. Manufacturing in recession. Looking like country recession when the next quarterly results come out.
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Old 11th Feb 2019, 10:42
  #4416 (permalink)  
 
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The reproduction rate in Germany is currently at 1,59 and increasing, in E&W it is 1,76 and declining. And you are aware of the fact that the last time E&W had enough childbirths to maintain its population with immigration was in the early 1970s....?

Originally Posted by tescoapp View Post
They know fine what's going to happen at government level, that's a German site that I linked to because otherwise it will be said it's project fear.

It was know about 25 odd years ago when the birth-rate started dropping significantly. They did hope that east and west reunifying would help matters but it didn't.
Do you know why the French are more reproductive than other European nations? Because of the red wine, baguette and cheese? It is because they have a very good childcare system that allows women to have a family and still have a career.

That is something the Germans are beginning to mirror. A couple of years ago, one-year long maternity/paternity leave paid for by the government was introduced (which can even be slightly extended if both parents take time off), followed by a legislation that now gives a legal right to kindergarten care for children under three. Kindergarten care is now fully paid for by state goverments for up to two years in some federal states, some local government even offer completely free kindergarten. Add to that the addition of an increasing number of schools that offer care in the afternoon, bonuses for mothers in the state pension scheme, a legal right to part-time work etc. That is one of the reasons why more and more middle-class women in their 30s have begun "breeding", as some JBers would put it, more in the past.

However, it looks as if my irony was somewhat difficult to spot. The number of births in E&W is declining. It would decline even faster without the increasing number of births by foreign mothers in the UK. And as it declines regardless, to maintain the workforce, on top of ever more childbirths by foreign mothers, immigrations will be needed. Now, to me it sounds somewhat inconsequential for Brexiteers to rely on an ever increasing number of births by those pesky foreigners and immigration to maintain the UK workforce in the future. And how will those numbers look anyway once the UK has regained control of its borders and those foreigners are finally kept out? Just askin'.
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Old 11th Feb 2019, 10:44
  #4417 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by ORAC View Post
Which only points up the problem of lies and statistics;

An influential economic research centre has warned that 100,000 jobs could be put at risk in Germany if the UK leaves the EU without securing a deal.

The study by the Halle Institute for Economic Research found that jobs in the car industry would be particularly vulnerable to the uncertainties created by Britain tumbling out of the EU without securing a favourable trading relationship.

Export giant Germany sold 770,000 vehicles to the UK in 2017 and 15,000 jobs in its automobile sector are reliant on this huge level of trade.

The study estimates that Wolfsburg, hometown of Volkswagen, would be hit hardest by a collapse in exports that would result from a no-deal exit.
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Old 11th Feb 2019, 10:51
  #4418 (permalink)  
 
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Strange isn't it?
We've been told all along that Brexit, of any variety, won't stop us trading with Europe.
And now we're told that Brexit is going to hurt Germany (but not, apparently, the UK).

While we of course are in a good position to start Brexit: or are we?
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Old 11th Feb 2019, 10:55
  #4419 (permalink)  
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Virginblue, correct that France is the most productive in Europe but that is not a view that the French think will remain:

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.t...utive-year/amp

The elephant in this case is the higher birthrate amongst Muslim immigrants compared with the indigenous population. This is both a cultural issue and a financial one. The latter where child allowances and benefits make many children a career option.
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Old 11th Feb 2019, 11:19
  #4420 (permalink)  
 
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France still has the highest birth rate in Europe and this will remain so for the foreseeable future as decline is the norm, not the exception.

The elephant in this case is the higher birthrate amongst Muslim immigrants compared with the indigenous population. This is both a cultural issue and a financial one. The latter where child allowances and benefits make many children a career option.
That is not an elephant. It is the same in Germany or the UK. Birth rates among minorities are everywhere higher than among the inbreds. If it were different, the population - without further immigration - would be shrinking even faster.

Point of the matter is: Does the UK need more or less childbirths by foreign mothers and more or less immigration to maintain its population and, even more important, to maintain its workforce so that the ever growing denture brigade can be fed, wiped and put to bed after a day of jubilation about living in a foreigner-free land of milk and honey that outperforms the rest of the world economically.
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