Go Back  PPRuNe Forums > PPRuNe Social > Jet Blast
Reload this Page >

UK Politics Hamsterwheel MkII

Jet Blast Topics that don't fit the other forums. Rules of Engagement apply.

UK Politics Hamsterwheel MkII

Old 21st Jan 2019, 22:29
  #3221 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Nov 2000
Location: Cambridge, England, EU
Posts: 3,429
Originally Posted by flash8 View Post
Actually Theresa May explicitly stated that today by way of "Social cohesion" and I firmly believe the government have looked at this in depth - the results for their eyes only (although obviously predictions are fairly meaningless).
She seemed to be saying that achieving #brexit was essential to prevent the disintegration of the UK. Whereas everybody else in the universe understands that the easiest way to split up the UK is to go ahead with #brexit, following which Scotland will rejoin the EU by taking independence, and northern Ireland will rejoin the EU by reuniting with the south, both in much less time that it will take England and Wales to (inevitably, eventually) rejoin.
Gertrude the Wombat is offline  
Old 21st Jan 2019, 23:26
  #3222 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: May 2018
Location: London/Fort Worth
Posts: 0
Originally Posted by Gertrude the Wombat View Post
She seemed to be saying that achieving #brexit was essential to prevent the disintegration of the UK. Whereas everybody else in the universe understands that the easiest way to split up the UK is to go ahead with #brexit, following which Scotland will rejoin the EU by taking independence, and northern Ireland will rejoin the EU by reuniting with the south, both in much less time that it will take England and Wales to (inevitably, eventually) rejoin.
Why should Scottish independence or Irish reunification have any bearing on Brexit whatsoever?. Both of those issues will remain whatever we do over Brexit, so anyone who makes a decision on those criteria is being rather naive.

With regards to May, I took it that she was referring to social disintegration where people come out onto the streets because they know that there is no point in voting as the establishment just ignore you. She may be wrong but its a point of view.
BAengineer is offline  
Old 22nd Jan 2019, 05:37
  #3223 (permalink)  
Thought police antagonist
 
Join Date: Jul 2003
Location: Where I always have been...firmly in the real world
Posts: 920
Are we al sitting comfortably ?...not now, but on Monday 28th when this arrives on our screens.
Sadly, Dave isn't actually going to be a participant because , it seems, there's a convenient clause in his memoirs which says " keep yer gob shut " Dave.....which is s shame really .......
Obviously, as the programme is being broadcast by the BBC, he JB meedjascentii will universally condemn the content from the onset. .....the rest of us, remain or leave, will duly watch with interest. .........although our esteemed contributor on foreign affairs, logistics et al ( c. S.A ) will doubtless be available to advise us of any irregularities and fallacies the programme may contain .

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-46951942

Another perspective from somebody whose occupation makes them acutely aware of reality. ....note the location

https://www.theguardian.com/politics...t-after-brexit

Last edited by Krystal n chips; 22nd Jan 2019 at 06:56.
Krystal n chips is offline  
Old 22nd Jan 2019, 07:33
  #3224 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Oct 2004
Location: UK
Posts: 1,640
Originally Posted by BAengineer View Post
Why should Scottish independence or Irish reunification have any bearing on Brexit whatsoever?. Both of those issues will remain whatever we do over Brexit, so anyone who makes a decision on those criteria is being rather naive.

With regards to May, I took it that she was referring to social disintegration where people come out onto the streets because they know that there is no point in voting as the establishment just ignore you. She may be wrong but its a point of view.
Mentioned in passing on a BBC report last evening was that one of the consequences of a no deal Brexit would be just what the DUP/UK and also the Irish Republic don't want - a hard border. This has to be since the Irish border becomes the EU external border. This will require, as a minimum official intervention for freight. I guess that between the UK and Ireland there could still be some local arrangement for people crossing too and fro - under the common travel agreement. Such an outcome will undoubtedly pile pressure on from the Northern Irish for a referendum on reunification which at some stage a UK government, perhaps a future Corbyn lead government, will have to yield to that pressure (you can be sure the Tories wouldn't because of their close relationship to Unionism. That's how NI leaves the United Kingdom.

Situation for Scotland may well be that following a no deal Brexit pressure builds from the Scots, who voted heavily in favour of Remain, for a referendum to decide whether they want to be independent and in the EU, or in the UK and outside the EU. In both situations you could say they would be subservient to another authority (Brussels or London), though in reality the EU is a partnership of equals, which really isn't the case for their relationship with London.

Not saying that either or both would happen immediately, just pointing out how the disintegration of the UK could come about within our lifetimes.

Civil Unrest in the case of New Referendum?

I don't believe a referendum in and of itself would provoke unrest, but no doubt about it a narrow (lets just say 52 / 48) in favour of remain would lead many people deeply dischuffed and I fear that there could be trouble if that happened. if the result went the other way Remainers would have absolutely no choice but to accept it and the consequences that went with it - we've lost one already!

Worst situation would be for the Commons to somehow stop Brexit (not delay it, but stop it) through revocation of Art.50. Then I think we would see really serious street trouble, possibly with the military being called in to assist in restoring order. For this reason, I would rather see a pause on the Art.50 process if the UK can't manage to agree a smooth exit and transition. No deal would be a disaster on all fronts, many world leaders (Trump excepted) have been telling the PM that, not least the Japanese PM.
ATNotts is offline  
Old 22nd Jan 2019, 07:51
  #3225 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Oct 2006
Location: UK
Posts: 4,599
I guess that between the UK and Ireland there could still be some local arrangement for people crossing too and fro
There have always been those since the incorporation of the Irish Free State. The had a sign beside the road that advised that it was an unauthorised crossing.

who voted heavily in favour of Remain, for a referendum to decide whether they want to be independent and in the EU,
Scottish Independence has lost its steam despite what Sturgeon keeps rattling on about. They lost the last Independence Referendum when oil was at $100 /barrel. It, apart from the odd lurch up/down $10 or so, has stabilised at around $65. Everyone who knows anything in Scotland knows that the country cannot afford to run itself at that rate. This was borne out by the SNP losing its majority at the last Scottish Parliamentary election and a drubbing at the last General Election which was after Scotland voted to Remain.
Fareastdriver is offline  
Old 22nd Jan 2019, 07:52
  #3226 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Reading, UK
Posts: 10,677
Originally Posted by ATNotts View Post
Situation for Scotland may well be that following a no deal Brexit pressure builds from the Scots, who voted heavily in favour of Remain, for a referendum to decide whether they want to be independent and in the EU, or in the UK and outside the EU. In both situations you could say they would be subservient to another authority (Brussels or London), though in reality the EU is a partnership of equals, which really isn't the case for their relationship with London.
Yes, it would be naive in the extreme to expect that the decision of the rest of the UK to vote in favour of Brexit would not impact on Scotland, where 62% voted Remain. It's clear that there will be another independence referendum sometime in the next couple of years, and that the result will be far closer than last time.
DaveReidUK is offline  
Old 22nd Jan 2019, 08:03
  #3227 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Apr 2008
Location: HK
Posts: 503
It is not clear at all about another Independence referendum. If independence was achieved all the rhetoric from the SNP about Brexit would be a hypocritical as they would have achieved a "hard Scexit" with independence.
iceman50 is offline  
Old 22nd Jan 2019, 08:06
  #3228 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Oct 2004
Location: UK
Posts: 1,640
Originally Posted by Fareastdriver View Post
There have always been those since the incorporation of the Irish Free State. The had a sign beside the road that advised that it was an unauthorised crossing.


Scottish Independence has lost its steam despite what Sturgeon keeps rattling on about. They lost the last Independence Referendum when oil was at $100 /barrel. It, apart from the odd lurch up/down $10 or so, has stabilised at around $65. Everyone who knows anything in Scotland knows that the country cannot afford to run itself at that rate. This was borne out by the SNP losing its majority at the last Scottish Parliamentary election and a drubbing at the last General Election which was after Scotland voted to Remain.
And we know what used to move to and fro across those "unauthorised crossings!, aside cows, tractors and the like!

The lower price of oil could pail into insignificance compared with the consequences of a no deal Brexit. If there was a deal, then the immediate chances of Scotland exiting the UK are diminished. Northern Ireland is far more vulnerable to leaving the UK in the event of no deal. Mind you, I for one wouldn't lose any sleep if the Northern Irish voted to leave the UK. Probably an easier way to find £350m a week for the NHS than leaving the EU!!!
ATNotts is offline  
Old 22nd Jan 2019, 08:12
  #3229 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Sunny Sussex
Posts: 778
Privations spurred on by Brexit will drive renewed vigour for the Snats, assuming a crash out. It's self serving hypocrisy for those on the no deal wing of this lunacy, fully in favour of shooting ourselves in the face to suggest the Scots would be making a grave strategic error in going it alone. Physician, heal thyself & all that.

Once again, in this scenario, we come full circle to the fundamental question is it worth the candle? Are we prepared to break up the union because a minority of extremists loathe the EU so much? And I will qualify that - 52% voted out. There is no mandate or consensus on what out means, only luxury indulgences by one sect or another, therefore it follows for some, it's immigration, for others, trade for yet more, what they read in the Express about the NHS and so on. The only bloc with any consistency is remain, so May's choices represent no majority, only a path to a poorer future.
Parapunter is offline  
Old 22nd Jan 2019, 08:23
  #3230 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Oct 2004
Location: UK
Posts: 1,640
Once again, in this scenario, we come full circle to the fundamental question is it worth the candle? Are we prepared to break up the union because a minority of extremists loathe the EU so much? And I will qualify that - 52% voted out. There is no mandate or consensus on what out means, only luxury indulgences by one sect or another, therefore it follows for some, it's immigration, for others, trade for yet more, what they read in the Express about the NHS and so on. The only bloc with any consistency is remain, so May's choices represent no majority, only a path to a poorer future.
I was listening to, I believe it was David Blunkett, at the weekend. He has no come around to the view that a new referendum is probably the only way of breaking the impasse. However he said also that the leave side would have a simplistic, populist mantra to use to rally their supporters - words to the effect of "tell them again" which he felt would play out well in getting the leave vote out. The stakes for the remain side are very high in the event of a new referendum and they would have to work a bloody sight harder, and cohesively to get their vote, particularly the younger vote out. Although the difference this time that it wouldn't be a Tory or Labour lead campaign since both parties are hopelessly divided on the Brexit issue.
ATNotts is offline  
Old 22nd Jan 2019, 08:35
  #3231 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jan 2019
Location: Great Britain
Posts: 1
Originally Posted by Sallyann1234 View Post
The good news for leavers is that we are leaving.
Some don't care about consequences: others hope to make money out of it. But they have got what they wanted, so they are happy.
​​​​​​
For the moment

I think you are very wrong Sally, all indications are that by hook or by crook, the political and business elite will not allow democracy
Hyperdark is offline  
Old 22nd Jan 2019, 08:42
  #3232 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Feb 2007
Location: Currently within the EU
Posts: 317
Originally Posted by BAengineer View Post
With regards to May, I took it that she was referring to social disintegration where people come out onto the streets because they know that there is no point in voting as the establishment just ignore you. She may be wrong but its a point of view.
It seems rather strange that people should demonstrate on the streets against having a free vote on an important national issue. Isn't that rather anti-democratic?
Sallyann1234 is offline  
Old 22nd Jan 2019, 09:08
  #3233 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jul 2004
Location: Longton, Lancs, UK
Age: 75
Posts: 1,501
Passed to me from a known source ------

"I'm a scouser living in Holland getting on 40 years now. .... It is just as bad, in some ways worse than in the UK. For example, Health Insurance is compulsory whether working or unemployed. My wife and I pay 250 euros per month and that is basic, no dentals, physios or extras. 2 major hospitals have shut down - there are no beds - the A&E is the same as the UK, families are asked to look after their parents because of shortages in Care.

The immigration problem is a laughing stock, food banks are noT coping, people in work are not making ends meet and are relying on food banks. .... Belgium, Germany and France have the same problems. Angela Merkel is stepping down as Prime Minister (Chancellor) but has forgot to tell everyone she has a secure high position in Brussels. .... Why would you want to be a member of a gang of pocket-filling thieves who do not care about their people? ... As for Junker ... don't get me started ....

The EU countries are crumbling and no f*cker gives a"dangle-doo-dandy", so GET OUT while you can and maybe others will follow suit". .... They are scaring and flexing their muscles and hoping that it will turn around, because the membership fee the UK puts in every year will have to be put up by the remaining countries. .... Holland will have to double their fee we've been told. ... What other countries can afford this?

Spain, Greece, Italy all bankrupt, so you see the EU does not want to lose the UK and will bully any way to try to win it over by threatening the Northern Ireland deal, the fishing deal, giving back Gibraltar and whatever else they can get their grubby hands on, so don't be fooled, it's not a bed of roses, things are bad here and like I said, in some matters its worse.

The riots in France are not just about fuel tax, its about living standards. .... Belgium and Holland have also taken up the baton with the Yellow Jacket Demonstrators because they're tired of it. .... Take the time to find out yourselves, then you will be glad of Brexit, and like I've said, with sense, holland will follow suit" ....'
jindabyne is offline  
Old 22nd Jan 2019, 09:10
  #3234 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Apr 1999
Location: Manchester, UK
Posts: 1,899
After months of labour’s “don’t ask don’t tell” we now see just why they’re so coy; we’re told we’ll “have a say” in post Brexit trade deals negotiated by EU. Really? That the EU would allow this of a non-member takes us into the realm of fantasy.
ShotOne is offline  
Old 22nd Jan 2019, 09:19
  #3235 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Hanging off the end of a thread
Posts: 15,984
Originally Posted by Effluent Man View Post
Border Force are saying an expected REDUCTION in freight by between 75 and 87% for six months after a No Deal.
There always was going to be some disruption no matter what deal was worked out, but that is simply a period of readjustment, people seeem to forget we managed well enough before joining the EU and the rest of the world manages trade without being in the EU, there is no reason why we cannot either... as my old mum used to say.....

You need to break a few eggs first to make an omlette.
NutLoose is offline  
Old 22nd Jan 2019, 09:25
  #3236 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Sunny Sussex
Posts: 778
Originally Posted by NutLoose View Post
There always was going to be some disruption no matter what deal was worked out, but that is simply a period of readjustment, people seeem to forget we managed well enough before joining the EU and the rest of the world manages trade without being in the EU, there is no reason why we cannot either... as my old mum used to say.....

You need to break a few eggs first to make an omlette.
Sounds like we have a saviour. Is your old mum available to negotiate in Brussels?
Parapunter is offline  
Old 22nd Jan 2019, 09:30
  #3237 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Dec 2018
Location: Dundee
Posts: 126
Originally Posted by Sallyann1234 View Post
It seems rather strange that people should demonstrate on the streets against having a free vote on an important national issue. Isn't that rather anti-democratic?
lol. You worked out how anti skid systems work yet. Lol
weemonkey is offline  
Old 22nd Jan 2019, 09:40
  #3238 (permalink)  
Thought police antagonist
 
Join Date: Jul 2003
Location: Where I always have been...firmly in the real world
Posts: 920
Originally Posted by jindabyne View Post
Passed to me from a known source ------

"I'm a scouser living in Holland getting on 40 years now. .... It is just as bad, in some ways worse than in the UK. For example, Health Insurance is compulsory whether working or unemployed. My wife and I pay 250 euros per month and that is basic, no dentals, physios or extras. 2 major hospitals have shut down - there are no beds - the A&E is the same as the UK, families are asked to look after their parents because of shortages in Care.

The immigration problem is a laughing stock, food banks are noT coping, people in work are not making ends meet and are relying on food banks. .... Belgium, Germany and France have the same problems. Angela Merkel is stepping down as Prime Minister (Chancellor) but has forgot to tell everyone she has a secure high position in Brussels. .... Why would you want to be a member of a gang of pocket-filling thieves who do not care about their people? ... As for Junker ... don't get me started ....

The EU countries are crumbling and no f*cker gives a"dangle-doo-dandy", so GET OUT while you can and maybe others will follow suit". .... They are scaring and flexing their muscles and hoping that it will turn around, because the membership fee the UK puts in every year will have to be put up by the remaining countries. .... Holland will have to double their fee we've been told. ... What other countries can afford this?

Spain, Greece, Italy all bankrupt, so you see the EU does not want to lose the UK and will bully any way to try to win it over by threatening the Northern Ireland deal, the fishing deal, giving back Gibraltar and whatever else they can get their grubby hands on, so don't be fooled, it's not a bed of roses, things are bad here and like I said, in some matters its worse.

The riots in France are not just about fuel tax, its about living standards. .... Belgium and Holland have also taken up the baton with the Yellow Jacket Demonstrators because they're tired of it. .... Take the time to find out yourselves, then you will be glad of Brexit, and like I've said, with sense, holland will follow suit" ....'
Well there's a revelation ....who would have known you were a spokesman for Nige ! ( or UKIP )
Krystal n chips is offline  
Old 22nd Jan 2019, 09:51
  #3239 (permalink)  
I don't own this space under my name. I should have leased it while I still could
 
Join Date: Dec 2002
Location: Lincolnshire
Age: 76
Posts: 16,593
And the thought of Northern Ireland making a peaceful transition to a united Ireland is fanciful in the extreme.
Pontius Navigator is offline  
Old 22nd Jan 2019, 11:03
  #3240 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jul 2004
Location: Longton, Lancs, UK
Age: 75
Posts: 1,501
who would have known you were a spokesman for Nige !
Read my post again. I'm not a spokesman for anyone.
jindabyne is offline  

Thread Tools
Search this Thread

Contact Us Archive Advertising Cookie Policy Privacy Statement Terms of Service

Copyright © 2018 MH Sub I, LLC dba Internet Brands. All rights reserved. Use of this site indicates your consent to the Terms of Use.