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UK Politics Hamsterwheel MkII

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UK Politics Hamsterwheel MkII

Old 21st Jan 2019, 16:20
  #3201 (permalink)  
 
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tescoapp,

Do you mean aloud or allowed?
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Old 21st Jan 2019, 16:48
  #3202 (permalink)  
 
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Allowed of course but I presume people want to point score over typing on a phone. And not checking it afterwards.

But to be honest I have always been crap at English. Doesn't change the fundamentals of looking a numerical deal. or for that matter what's going to happen in 67 days time.

Two entity's in a trade deal A imports 20 billion from B; B imports 19 billion from A ie A to B = 19 billion B to A = 20 billion

Something changes in B and afterwards only 9 billion gets imported from A to B, same changes mean that B imports 17 billon from A. ie A to B = 9 billion B to A = 17 billion

What's A going to do.

A) say fair enough lets carry on as we are

B) hang on this isn't the same situation that we negotiated the deal on originally, your getting nearly double the benefits compared to the original situation. Renegotiate or cancel.
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Old 21st Jan 2019, 17:26
  #3203 (permalink)  
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May I say aloud that THERE pertains to in, at, or to that place or position.

THEIR belonging to or associated with the people or things previously mentioned or easily identified.

If people are allowed to misuse words which sound alike but have entirely different meanings it destroys their credibility as a debater.
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Old 21st Jan 2019, 17:43
  #3204 (permalink)  
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Two entities in a trade deal:
A imports 20 billion from B;
B imports 19 billion from A
ie A imports1 billion more from B than A exports to B

Something changes in B:

A imports 9 billion from B
same changes mean that B imports 17 billion from A.
ie A imports 8 billion less from B and than A exports to B

Right so far?

But A actually imports 11 billion less and B imports 2 billion less.

so clearly trade between A and B had dropped by 13 billion or 33% of the previous trade.

is that right?

As the 33% drop is based on 'something happens ' it is a hypothetical set of f igures. What was your point?

Last edited by Pontius Navigator; 21st Jan 2019 at 18:16.
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Old 21st Jan 2019, 18:09
  #3205 (permalink)  
 
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So, no deals for a long while after exit. Not even potential deals agreed and ready to sign. And apparently disputes over sharing the EU's WTO quotas.
And there will be no problems crossing the Channel ? Dream on.
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Old 21st Jan 2019, 18:12
  #3206 (permalink)  
 
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Border Force are saying an expected REDUCTION in freight by between 75 and 87% for six months after a No Deal.
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Old 21st Jan 2019, 18:14
  #3207 (permalink)  
 
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And if we pile out without a deal, watch the WTO disputes pike in.

Meanwhile Tesco will still be here insisting Germany is in recession (questionable) because EU, failing to account for the 1/3 or Germany's economy that is manufacturing is caught up in China's slowdown & their trade war with the US. As you see wherever you look, Brexiteers take complex issues & offer simple explanations. Historically, we have coined terms for people who do that.
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Old 21st Jan 2019, 18:18
  #3208 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by Effluent Man View Post
Border Force are saying an expected REDUCTION in freight by between 75 and 87% for six months after a No Deal.
On what do they base their assessment?

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Old 21st Jan 2019, 18:35
  #3209 (permalink)  
 
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I have no idea. But it us a government agency so one would expect them to be unbiased.
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Old 21st Jan 2019, 18:49
  #3210 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by Effluent Man View Post
I have no idea. But it us a government agency so one would expect them to be unbiased.
But it is a government agency so one would expect them to have as much clue as the Government.
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Old 21st Jan 2019, 18:58
  #3211 (permalink)  
 
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I have no idea. But it us a government agency so one would expect them to be unbiased.
In theory yes, in practice they do their masters bidding. You don't bite the hand that feeds you.
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Old 21st Jan 2019, 19:02
  #3212 (permalink)  
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Border Force are saying an expected REDUCTION in freight by between 75 and 87% for six months after a No Deal.
No, it’s their worst case scenario. Just like the MOD’s worst case scenario is a first strike thermonuclear attack.
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Old 21st Jan 2019, 19:06
  #3213 (permalink)  
 
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Go have a look in the EU stats web site you will find it's far from hyperthetical with most of the EU trade deals with the UK import market removed.

In fact with some of them it's nearly 80% drop into EU for 10% drop in imports from.
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Old 21st Jan 2019, 19:09
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Originally Posted by ORAC View Post


No, it’s their worst case scenario. Just like the MOD’s worst case scenario is a first strike thermonuclear attack.
Serious question, where is the good news for leaver?. While I see leave mounting defences of the tide of bad news as a matter of course, do you really think the entire mainstream press is against you or do yo art any stage have pause for thought that this isn't going remotely as advertised?
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Old 21st Jan 2019, 19:28
  #3215 (permalink)  
 
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The good news for leavers is that we are leaving.
Some don't care about consequences: others hope to make money out of it. But they have got what they wanted, so they are happy.
​​​​​​
For the moment
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Old 21st Jan 2019, 19:34
  #3216 (permalink)  
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Old 21st Jan 2019, 19:43
  #3217 (permalink)  
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Parapunter,

I don’t see it about being about trade, if it was then staying in the EU would be preferable, the EEC being set up as a trade body. However I see it about being concerning constitutional matters and the EU being both deficient and and increasingly inimical to democratic principles. So I prefer to hold to the second at the expense of the first - to use an old term, not to sell our birthright for a mess of pottage.

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Old 21st Jan 2019, 19:55
  #3218 (permalink)  
 
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Just as well because the potage lorry will probably be stuck in Calais.
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Old 21st Jan 2019, 21:18
  #3219 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by ORAC View Post
Parapunter,

I donít see it about being about trade, if it was then staying in the EU would be preferable, the EEC being set up as a trade body. However I see it about being concerning constitutional matters and the EU being both deficient and and increasingly inimical to democratic principles. So I prefer to hold to the second at the expense of the first - to use an old term, not to sell our birthright for a mess of pottage.

Thanks, Well explained. Nonetheless, you may as well say you don't see legs as part of walking, the issues are demonstrably indivisible. The plain facts are you can either have more control & less trade or vice versa. I wonder to what extent people who depend on employment and realise what's at stake can afford to be as high minded.
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Old 21st Jan 2019, 21:31
  #3220 (permalink)  
 
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I was listening to LBC (I think) via Internet Radio and they had Steve Bannon on the programme, he stated unequivocally that UK "freedom of movement" would never end, that those in power would obfuscate, distort and downright lie to achieve that aim. I listened carefully because whatever you think of said person, for him to come out with a statement like that so firmly indicates that it might well have some credence.

He also stated that when the masses (or at least some of them) realize they were duped it would result in civil disruption. Actually Theresa May explicitly stated that today by way of "Social cohesion" and I firmly believe the government have looked at this in depth - the results for their eyes only (although obviously predictions are fairly meaningless).
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