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UK Politics Hamsterwheel MkII

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UK Politics Hamsterwheel MkII

Old 10th Jan 2019, 15:32
  #2661 (permalink)  
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Making Britain great again was a tongue in cheek reflection upon the fact that really, Britain's immigration policy and El Trumpo's wall have little theoretical difference.
The rest of the observations were correct and undeserving of rubbishing. Had Brexit occurred and then failed miserably the onus of blame would be on the Brexiteers. Now that Brexit looks as though it is not going to happen, that is the fault of the Remainers. the consequent shambles lies upon their shoulders. History should reflect that fact.
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Old 10th Jan 2019, 16:06
  #2662 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by cavortingcheetah View Post
Making Britain great again was a tongue in cheek reflection upon the fact that really, Britain's immigration policy and El Trumpo's wall have little theoretical difference.
The rest of the observations were correct and undeserving of rubbishing. Had Brexit occurred and then failed miserably the onus of blame would be on the Brexiteers. Now that Brexit looks as though it is not going to happen, that is the fault of the Remainers. the consequent shambles lies upon their shoulders. History should reflect that fact.
But Brexit will happen, and will fail miserably. That's the fact for history to reflect. Doubtless though the Brexiteers will blame the Remainers and the EU for its failure anyway. In fact they seem to be preparing for it already.
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Old 10th Jan 2019, 16:16
  #2663 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Sallyann1234 View Post
But Brexit will happen, and will fail miserably. That's the fact for history to reflect. Doubtless though the Brexiteers will blame the Remainers and the EU for its failure anyway. In fact they seem to be preparing for it already.
I still fail to see why you and others know this as a fact, you have no idea whether it will, or not be a failure, it is just your personal opinion based on your fears and outlook on the future, but cannot be based on historical precedents, and even if you look back at past economic disasters the UK has survived and thrived and not due to the EU, so why cannot they now. or are we now a nation of defeatists who are unable to make economic decision without the EU support structure.
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Old 10th Jan 2019, 16:20
  #2664 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Exrigger View Post
I still fail to see why you and others know this as a fact, you have no idea whether it will, or not be a failure, it is just your personal opinion based on your fears and outlook on the future, but cannot be based on historical precedents, and even if you look back at past economic disasters the UK has survived and thrived and not due to the EU, so why cannot they now. or are we now a nation of defeatists who are unable to make economic decision without the EU support structure.

@ SA et al

defeat snatched from the jaws of victory indeed.
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Old 10th Jan 2019, 16:30
  #2665 (permalink)  
 
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It's true that we don't know the outcome if we leave with No Deal. But all the indicators seem to point one way. It isn't merely Project Fear. Admittedly we have been bombarded by prophets of doom, but that could well be because doom awaits us just around the corner. If you were a gambler and you had to bet on an outcome of this it would be a pretty odd choice not to short the UK. It's just the numbers game and only the real hard core Brexiteers are backing a positive outcome, and almost certainly not with their own money.
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Old 10th Jan 2019, 16:33
  #2666 (permalink)  
 
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In a dramatic intervention the former head of MI6, Sir Richard Dearlove, has written to Conservative Associations warning them against backing Theresa May’s EU deal.

The letter, seen by Sky News, reveals that Sir Richard believes May’s deal “abrogates” Britain’s security and puts power in “foreign hands”.

He asks local Tory Chairman to “ensure that your MP votes against this bad agreement” and makes clear his support for a WTO Brexit.

In the letter, co-authored with former defence chief Lord Guthrie, the pair say: “The first duty of the state, above trade, is the security of its citizens.”

“The Withdrawal Agreement abrogates this fundamental contract and would place control of aspects of our national security in foreign hands.

“Please ensure that your MP votes against this bad agreement and supports a sovereign Brexit on WTO rules.”

Sir Richard has previously said that he is “personally happy to see us ceasing to be a member of the EU” and that he is he “absolutely confident that we can survive and thrive” outside of the European Union.

https://news.sky.com/story/theresa-m...warns-11603738
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Old 10th Jan 2019, 16:38
  #2667 (permalink)  
 
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But all the indicators seem to point one way.
EM, Just a polite question; but what indicators, supplied by who, obviously if remain they would point one way and be biased to doom and gloom output to be avoided at all costs, if leave it would point one way that it would be better for the UK being out, so you are just back to opinion based on one's own fear of change, or not, depending on where one sits regarding Brexit.
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Old 10th Jan 2019, 16:40
  #2668 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Exrigger View Post
I still fail to see why you and others know this as a fact, you have no idea whether it will, or not be a failure, it is just your personal opinion based on your fears and outlook on the future, but cannot be based on historical precedents, and even if you look back at past economic disasters the UK has survived and thrived and not due to the EU, so why cannot they now. or are we now a nation of defeatists who are unable to make economic decision without the EU support structure.
You say there is no historic precedent, and then you say we have survived them. Hmm.

The world is a very different place to what it was before we joined the EEC/EU. There is now a queue of developing countries poised to take over our place in the list of economic powers. We have stuck up two fingers to the most powerful trading group on earth. We have 'taken back control' only to hand it to the US if we want a trade agreement with them.

But we are going to thrive? Let's have this conversation again in five years.
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Old 10th Jan 2019, 16:41
  #2669 (permalink)  
 
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Some humour amidst the establishment drones...

Well look on the bright side....


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Old 10th Jan 2019, 16:51
  #2670 (permalink)  
 
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You say there is no historic precedent, and then you say we have survived them. Hmm.
Sorry SA if I was not explicit enough but you know fine well that my comment meant that there is no historical precedence for Brexit, as no country, including the UK has ever tried to leave before.

But we are going to thrive? Let's have this conversation again in five years.
As I and others have repeatedly said, we have no idea whether the UK will survive out of the EU, or not, neither does remain, but we won't know until we try, so as you say, if we actually leave the EU, as we might still be kicking that can down the road for 5 years yet, lets debate this when we know factually whether it was a mistake or not, and then we can do what we always do and sort it out, and if the UK win a vote to re-join the EU and they let us back in, we can then debate the success of that decision 5 years on as well.
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Old 10th Jan 2019, 17:03
  #2671 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Exrigger View Post
EM, Just a polite question; but what indicators, supplied by who, obviously if remain they would point one way and be biased to doom and gloom output to be avoided at all costs, if leave it would point one way that it would be better for the UK being out, so you are just back to opinion based on one's own fear of change, or not, depending on where one sits regarding Brexit.
There have been any number of indicators coming from independent sources not connected to Remain. Not to mention the current brouhaha over hiring ferries etc. I guess we will have to wait, but expect me to be at the front of the queue to say "I told you so".
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Old 10th Jan 2019, 17:06
  #2672 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Effluent Man View Post

There have been any number of indicators coming from independent sources not connected to Remain. Not to mention the current brouhaha over hiring ferries etc. I guess we will have to wait, but expect me to be at the front of the queue to say "I told you so".
I would expect nothing less, however if it turns out to be a good decision, can I be afforded the same courtesy should the occasion arise.

independent sources not connected to Remain
Am I able to read these so I can further my understanding on their perspective?
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Old 10th Jan 2019, 17:31
  #2673 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Effluent Man View Post
It's true that we don't know the outcome if we leave with No Deal.
We've got a pretty good idea though - to a first approximation everything stops working.

Of course if we remain a member it's much easier to predict the outcome - everything continues to work.

The one that's really impossible to predict is May's "deal"-that-isn't-a-deal, as there will be a further decade or three of negotiations before anyone has the remotest clue what it means.
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Old 10th Jan 2019, 17:42
  #2674 (permalink)  
 
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GtW: We've got a pretty good idea though - to a first approximation everything stops working.
So the answers to my earlier questions would appear to be that all trade will stop between the EU & UK and non-EU countries that the EU sorted out trade with, there will be loads of lorries on both sides of the channel awaiting customs clearances, there will no aircraft flying in and out of the UK, and no UK person will be able to travel freely around Europe or work in Europe to name but a few, that is what the statement above would imply, so you also know this for a fact or are you going to quote some informed neutral sources opinion as fact to prove that that is going to be the outcome i.e. that everything stops working?
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Old 10th Jan 2019, 18:32
  #2675 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Exrigger View Post
So the answers to my earlier questions would appear to be that all trade will stop between the EU & UK and non-EU countries that the EU sorted out trade with, there will be loads of lorries on both sides of the channel awaiting customs clearances, there will no aircraft flying in and out of the UK, and no UK person will be able to travel freely around Europe or work in Europe to name but a few, that is what the statement above would imply, so you also know this for a fact or are you going to quote some informed neutral sources opinion as fact to prove that that is going to be the outcome i.e. that everything stops working?
I hope it will not be catastrophic but there will be some consequences for at least a few Brits - I think it’s a given amongst the expats, on the basis given by both the various U.K. embassies in the EU27 and also local national authorities, that if Brexit goes through, especially a hard one, Your average Brit will not maintain their current freedom to travel freely around the EU27 without any time limitations on either stay or residency.

I also gather from those studying/working on the “mainland” that some tech companies/academic institutions are already showing a reluctance to invite Brits for interview or making it clear to those that do make interview that the company/institution will not be offered long term contracts/positions until either the status of Brits working in the EU is clarified, or that those Brits being interviewed take measures to ensure their continued ability to work long term in the EU27 by, for example, taking the nationality of an EU27 nation if they are in a position to do so....

That, I’m afraid, is just the start of it and is very much “project fact,” as experienced by a close relative who is studying in the field of Mathematics and Economics at a university on the continent and who has had to apply for non-U.K. citizenship in order to ensure their eligibility to continue on their course....






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Old 10th Jan 2019, 18:57
  #2676 (permalink)  
 
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Wiggy, I don't think anyone is saying that it will be a trouble free transition out of the EU, of course there are going to be issues, but are they in reality going to be as bad as some keep stating as fact that they will be a total disaster i.e. what I posted above and previously is what some claim is going to happen.

I have to accept the rest of your post as that is obviously happening and sorry you have had to gain first hand experience of that, but again I have to ask why are these companies doing this, as both the EU and UK have intimated that this issue would not arise for UK people in Europe, or European people within the UK, so is this another falsehood by UK and EU governing people and businesses are acting to cover all possible outcomes to protect themselves, on that I don't know, only they would know. Also we have not left yet, surely under EU rules this is not a legal practice and I was also led to believe that existing 'contracts/educational courses' stayed as before even if the completion date was after the UK had left.

Is it cause to claim Brexit is going to be an unmitigated disaster, no I don't think it is, is it something that could fairly easily be resolved once we successfully leave, or even before, I think it probably is, but is having to work at resolving what could end up being minor issues enough to not bother with Brexit, I personally don't think so.
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Old 10th Jan 2019, 19:13
  #2677 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by cavortingcheetah View Post
Making Britain great again was a tongue in cheek reflection upon the fact that really, Britain's immigration policy and El Trumpo's wall have little theoretical difference.
The rest of the observations were correct and undeserving of rubbishing. Had Brexit occurred and then failed miserably the onus of blame would be on the Brexiteers. Now that Brexit looks as though it is not going to happen, that is the fault of the Remainers. the consequent shambles lies upon their shoulders. History should reflect that fact.
What rubbish.
I voted to remain but fully accepted the referendum outcome despite the shameful lies peddled by both sides.

The consequent shambles is down to the totally inept Negotiation Team and the totally inept Government who are still displaying absolutely no signs of leadership.

What history will actually reflect is the utter stupidity of David Cameron who took us into the most important referendum in our lifetime with no idea of what to do with the result.
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Old 10th Jan 2019, 19:14
  #2678 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Exrigger View Post

Is it cause to claim Brexit is going to be an unmitigated disaster, no I don't think it is, is it something that could fairly easily be resolved once we successfully leave, or even before, I think it probably is, but is having to work at resolving what could end up being minor issues enough to not bother with Brexit, I personally don't think so.
I'd be curious to understand how you think throwing up significant trade barriers with our nearest & largest market and unravelling forty years of acquis with no ready made replacements, the disruption of long established just in time supply chains and while simultaneously ignoring the vast cost, 4.2bn so far is, in your mind, minor issues.
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Old 10th Jan 2019, 19:23
  #2679 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by wiggy View Post
I also gather from those studying/working on the “mainland” that some tech companies/academic institutions are already showing a reluctance to invite Brits for interview
My brother in law having been made redundant from a job in Switzerland found a new job in Germany.

First question (before interview, obviously): "What right do you have to work in Germany after #brexit?"

If he hadn't been in a position to say "Ah, well, you know I told you I was a Brit? - that's true, but I've also got this shiny new Irish passport" he wouldn't have got the interview or the job. And this was months ago now.
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Old 10th Jan 2019, 19:26
  #2680 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Parapunter View Post
Emotive. Very emotive. I particularly enjoyed 'Longed for freedom' Because you are DEFINITELY under someone's jackboot, you poor sausage. The analysis is faulty anyway. Scotland voted remain by a distance. Labour's prevarication is hurting them there. Dire warnings of this or that punting Labour into an unassailable position north of the border are doubtful & lastly, the will of the people is not some ancient hapless insect set in amber, forever frozen.

Things have moved on, people are woke, as the kids say & realising the gammon dream of Brexit is cock & bull. The will of the people is not quite what you think it is.
You just can't help yourself can you.

In the meantime, something for you to contemplate...

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