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UK Politics Hamsterwheel MkII

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UK Politics Hamsterwheel MkII

Old 7th Jan 2019, 11:00
  #2481 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by ATNotts View Post

...very lucrative book deal.
Law of averages, she has to do a decent deal sooner or later.
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Old 7th Jan 2019, 11:17
  #2482 (permalink)  
 
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And the remain seem to turn a blind eye to all the issues that are occurring and the challenges that it has. And I think Greece and Italy are running at 35% leave Germany at the other end are at 10%

The last years have been false thanks to negative interest bonds propping it up and also inflation in the euro zone. The banks in the euro zone have been struggling for years now. They have planned to stop it just as inflation has started to drop again. We shall see what happens with that one.

She has no chance of getting it through.

Art 50 will be changed extremely quickly after this has been sorted out. Making it pretty much impossible for a country to leave unless they are under civil war without immediate and imposed bankruptcy resulting and the Eu being able to retain control what ever happens.

And yes they would risk a no deal exit, they would also vote for a GE if Corbyn called one if it was a choice between MAy's deal and the cons getting booted out and having a Corybn government after the default exit has occurred. A majority Labour government is unlikely and a hung parliament would ensure the default exit either way if the GE was taken before the 29th.


The hard exit date is pretty much screwing all the normal political processes and posturing. The political process makes it extremely easy just to delay until the default occurs anyway. And no amount of whinging can change that.
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Old 7th Jan 2019, 11:37
  #2483 (permalink)  
 
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The hard exit date is pretty much screwing all the normal political processes and posturing. The political process makes it extremely easy just to delay until the default occurs anyway. And no amount of whinging can change that.
From the EU side that's not true. They have said there's scope for suspension in the event of a general election or referendum; but not because our idiotic, self centered, small minded, tribal politicians can't sort themselves out. Of course, and I think as you are suggesting, because May had the exit date written into UK law stopping our clocks may be more problematic. That wasn't her first, and I fear won't be her last fatal error.
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Old 7th Jan 2019, 11:40
  #2484 (permalink)  
 
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Apart from anything else even if she does win it.. It will have to go to the lords and there will be amendments then back to the house screw around with them then back to the lords. Back to the house repeat or she can go nuclear to force it through.

All of which needs to be done 74 days after the vote. Which realistically is actually 41 days because a GE called inside 33days will ensure that the result is given after the default exit at 23:00 on the 29th. You could more than likely take 7 days off that minimum because who ever wins needs to form a government and the house to start sitting again.

DUP will refuse to go in with Con again knowing that they will put it through. And labour/Corybn won't want the Eu to restrict what he can do now that he is in power never mind having to give them any money which he will have plans for anyway.

then we will get to see who is right about it being fatal to the EU. Hopefully they will suffer on for 5 years so the UK can recover before there is a mad rush of everyone doing the same thing.

If you are a hard leaver who wants the Eu to die then a default exit with labour government afterwards is what you want.

Personally I don't want the Eu to die. Unfortunately I think that some pretty nasty damage has already been done whether or not the UK stay or goes. If the ECJ had ruled that the UK could only stay with changes to its current deal they might have had a chance because they would have got the cash and none of the disruption to the changes they need to get through quickly.

That ecj case was a double edged sword which was pretty obvious, Which is why as a leaver I gave them some cash.
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Old 7th Jan 2019, 11:51
  #2485 (permalink)  
 
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For the EU side there is. For any extension it has to have the agreement of the other members.

The clock is set under the ART 50 rules. Just because Juncker and a couple of others say there wouldn't be a problem getting and extension doesn't mean its a 30 second process to get it. The UK law is an additional factor.

it needs to get put to the other members and any one of them can stop it.

Any conditions and then it just gets circular mess.

It wasn't her error it was a parliament inclusion to get the pro exit MP's support. They have been way more tactical getting stuff in place to ensure an exit. The remains have tried to influence things in other ways. But they have managed to make things worse than they if they had done nothing. But that's not the fault of the leave side.
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Old 7th Jan 2019, 11:55
  #2486 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by tescoapp View Post
Personally I don't want the Eu to die. Unfortunately I think that some pretty nasty damage has already been done whether or not the UK stay or goes. If the ECJ had ruled that the UK could only stay with changes to its current deal they might have had a chance because they would have got the cash and none of the disruption to the changes they need to get through quickly.
If you're going to leap around from one speculative hot take to another, it would help your case considerably were you not to contradict yourself in the space of an hour or so.


Originally Posted by tescoapp View Post
Its not. The fundamental relationship has been altered, even if the UK stayed it won't be the same. It was getting aggressive before the vote due to the UK fundamentally not wanting to be in a federal Europe. Now its going to be brutal if the UK stays.
It's tiresome to have to unpack one evidence free thought experiment after another. F'rinstance, you said above the EU will tighten article 50 after our departure. Where is the proof of this? I see nothing anywhere supporting this position, yet you state it as fact. Show me your facts.
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Old 7th Jan 2019, 12:07
  #2487 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Parapunter View Post
If you're going to leap around from one speculative hot take to another, it would help your case considerably were you not to contradict yourself in the space of an hour or so.




It's tiresome to have to unpack one evidence free thought experiment after another. F'rinstance, you said above the EU will tighten article 50 after our departure. Where is the proof of this? I see nothing anywhere supporting this position, yet you state it as fact. Show me your facts.
Let's be clear. He knows no more about the EU than anyone else here. It's just speculation. Dreams that he would like to come true.
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Old 7th Jan 2019, 12:14
  #2488 (permalink)  
 
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please post them.

here we go, its the provide facts game, I really can't be bothered. Even if I did eventually find the link to a public comment from one of the EC on it, I can't remember which on of them said it would have to be changed post exit.

You would just say its not a fact. Like it or not there has been huge issues for the EU with the wording of it and the ECJ has ruled against what they wanted by saying that the UK can cancel without conditions.

Adding in financial obligations on leaving will definitely have to be included so there is no possibility of doing what the UK may be able to do. And also the terms of cancelation will be changed as well because of the ECJ ruling on the current ARt50 Apart from anything else they would be bloody stupid not to as a minimum.

It really doesn't bother me if you think my case is worthless, pointless, without merit etc etc. Its going have zero effect on what's going to happen in the next 81 days.

And if you haven't set yourself up for a default exit with the mistaken belief that it is an impossible outcome then its a bit late now anyway. Good luck your going to need it.
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Old 7th Jan 2019, 12:25
  #2489 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by tescoapp View Post
I really can't be bothered.
Then you are not to be taken seriously. Simple enough I would have thought, make a claim, back it up when challenged = I go away crying for my mummy.

As it stands, you are effectively agreeing with me that you're a fantasist making it up on the hoof & who would want to be labelled that??
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Old 7th Jan 2019, 12:28
  #2490 (permalink)  
 
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It's been clear right from the start that there would never be a satisfactory exit deal. The recent turmoil within both political parties has just made it more certain.
But your predictions that it would lead to the death of the EU are just nonsense. The EU will be stronger without its reluctant, awkward semi-member.
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Old 7th Jan 2019, 12:42
  #2491 (permalink)  
 
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if you want to think of it as that... that's fine by me it will make zero difference to what's going to happen in 81 days time.

As for my predictions of what will happen to the EU.. again what you think of them will not change the eventual outcome and neither will what others think of them due to what you write about them.

My predictions are just the same as all the other fiction that's been produced on the economic effects of exiting.

I am more than happy to just wait and see what happens, my planning and execution of those plans happen months ago for what I think is the likely outcome.
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Old 7th Jan 2019, 20:06
  #2492 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by andrewn View Post
I personally won't be holding anyone responsible, regardless of what happens next. And neither do I see it as "their project". We've been in the EU for forty years, as a result of a democratic vote. We've now been through another democratic process and elected to leave. And I'm perfectly comfortable with the outcome, we just need to get on with it and look forwards, and stop trying to sow division and apportion blame, in my opinion.
Sensible but in my view, to some degree flawed.

It could be argued that the majority (including myself) who voted for membership of the Common Market back in '73 legitimately might claim a "peoples'' re-run on the basis that the electorate was hoodwinked by both the Heath and the Wilson governments into supposing that this was nothing more than a mercantile relationship. These PMs as well as their respective Attorneys General and those politicians who had bothered to read the Treaty of Rome were well aware of the "ever closer" hokum that was/is a fundamental tenet of the Treaty, yet nothing was said; certainly the principle was kept well hidden from public gaze, at least by British politicians.

And it, unequivocally, is the British politicians who should be held accountable for the condition in which the country now finds itself. For 40 years they cynically have rubber-stamped all the nonsense foisted on us by a wholly unaccountable EU hegemony. This has allowed them a very comfortable existence but during this time the body politic has atrophied for want of legislative vigour and debate which is why we now have a leaderless bunch of fifth-rate cardboard cutouts wondering what the hell happened. It is from this sorry collection that a so-called government has been concocted. Andrewn may not feel obliged to hold this thoroughly delinquent administration accountable but I and very many others most certainly do. I don't suppose that a government might be impeached but this lot should be. The bubble of the politicians' sinecure has been burst and they have no idea of how to deal with either the present situation or the voters who precipitated a wonderful vision which they and timidity have reduced to a nightmare.

Being clueless, they have failed to stop the blatant insurrection and machinations of the anti-democratic opposition to the Referendum's conclusion, so that we now have the ridiculous example of the tail (almost) wagging the dog and are back to counting angels on pinheads. We did not vote for the Maybot's traitorous deal; we did not vote for any deal - we voted to leave and, by definition, under the WTO rules which this country was instrumental in drafting. The government has been out-manoeuvred at every single turn, not solely by a cohesive approach and professional negotiation by Brussels but by their own incompetence. It's a national humiliation which my overseas chums are quick to point out.

Perhaps one of the sadder things is that the footsoldiers of the Remain camp have been duped by exactly the same establishment which was so mad keen for us to join the doomed euro. The ever-meddling Tony Blair, The City, the CBI, the Left's mouthpiece - the BBC, most major media outlets and substantial parts of the civil service were proved comprehensively wrong, just as they have been so many times since. The argument hasn't changed; then we were going to be crippled by "transactions costs and uncertainty". Now we have the present's equivalent, "border frictions and disruptions" and these people are still comprehensively wrong. Perhaps the only treal difference is that today we have Carney who seems determined to gain a peerage. The EU manifestly is a failing institution and for the life of me, I cannot imagine why anyone would want to hitch themselves to this unloved body when the world is waiting for us. It is Liam Fox's job to embrace it but what does he do? His grand vision extends no further than May's myopic understanding of the status quo. I despair of these dreadful people.

I'm afraid that the best we can do for the moment is to follow Herbert Asquith's advice of 1914. But I ain't at all sanguine.
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Old 7th Jan 2019, 20:23
  #2493 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Gipsy Queen View Post
Sensible but in my view, to some degree flawed.

It could be argued that the majority (including myself) who voted for membership of the Common Market back in '73 legitimately might claim a "peoples'' re-run on the basis that the electorate was hoodwinked by both the Heath and the Wilson governments into supposing that this was nothing more than a mercantile relationship. These PMs as well as their respective Attorneys General and those politicians who had bothered to read the Treaty of Rome were well aware of the "ever closer" hokum that was/is a fundamental tenet of the Treaty, yet nothing was said; certainly the principle was kept well hidden from public gaze, at least by British politicians.

And it, unequivocally, is the British politicians who should be held accountable for the condition in which the country now finds itself. For 40 years they cynically have rubber-stamped all the nonsense foisted on us by a wholly unaccountable EU hegemony. This has allowed them a very comfortable existence but during this time the body politic has atrophied for want of legislative vigour and debate which is why we now have a leaderless bunch of fifth-rate cardboard cutouts wondering what the hell happened. It is from this sorry collection that a so-called government has been concocted. Andrewn may not feel obliged to hold this thoroughly delinquent administration accountable but I and very many others most certainly do. I don't suppose that a government might be impeached but this lot should be. The bubble of the politicians' sinecure has been burst and they have no idea of how to deal with either the present situation or the voters who precipitated a wonderful vision which they and timidity have reduced to a nightmare.

Being clueless, they have failed to stop the blatant insurrection and machinations of the anti-democratic opposition to the Referendum's conclusion, so that we now have the ridiculous example of the tail (almost) wagging the dog and are back to counting angels on pinheads. We did not vote for the Maybot's traitorous deal; we did not vote for any deal - we voted to leave and, by definition, under the WTO rules which this country was instrumental in drafting. The government has been out-manoeuvred at every single turn, not solely by a cohesive approach and professional negotiation by Brussels but by their own incompetence. It's a national humiliation which my overseas chums are quick to point out.

Perhaps one of the sadder things is that the footsoldiers of the Remain camp have been duped by exactly the same establishment which was so mad keen for us to join the doomed euro. The ever-meddling Tony Blair, The City, the CBI, the Left's mouthpiece - the BBC, most major media outlets and substantial parts of the civil service were proved comprehensively wrong, just as they have been so many times since. The argument hasn't changed; then we were going to be crippled by "transactions costs and uncertainty". Now we have the present's equivalent, "border frictions and disruptions" and these people are still comprehensively wrong. Perhaps the only treal difference is that today we have Carney who seems determined to gain a peerage. The EU manifestly is a failing institution and for the life of me, I cannot imagine why anyone would want to hitch themselves to this unloved body when the world is waiting for us. It is Liam Fox's job to embrace it but what does he do? His grand vision extends no further than May's myopic understanding of the status quo. I despair of these dreadful people.

I'm afraid that the best we can do for the moment is to follow Herbert Asquith's advice of 1914. But I ain't at all sanguine.
Just about sums it up really. Eloquently expressed.
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Old 7th Jan 2019, 21:23
  #2494 (permalink)  
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PP, no my question was intended to be none different in complexity than the referendum.

As a remainer I too was for the Euro again from the personal simplicity for Euro travel. Pre-Euro one journey I made involved different currency through 7 counter from Cyprus to France, later a holiday through 6, and a box of shrapnel at home which I would sort thoroughbred time.

From the few answers of the question remainers in 2016 were pro Euro in 1999 and it looks as if leavers were not.
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Old 7th Jan 2019, 22:07
  #2495 (permalink)  
 
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Happy to concede I read too much into the question. FWIW, I felt one currency across 16 or so countries with diverse economies was not going to overcome those divergent factors sufficiently to act as a cohesive, unifying force. I haven't really seen much to contradict that view.
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Old 7th Jan 2019, 22:26
  #2496 (permalink)  
 
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If things really do go seriously wrong, that is prolonged recession/slump wrong then it is fanciful to imagine that recriminations won't come thick and fast. In such a circumstance then there are two options.

1. A Tory government will make up the shortfall by a reduction in benefits and pensions and a further round of cuts in areas like social care, hitting the poorest in society.

2. A radical Labour government will blame the Tories and raise higher rates of tax to punitive levels along with a possible extra levy on higher value properties, a kind of Council Super Tax.

Either of these options will cause much wringing of hands and gnashing of teeth, albeit from different sections of society. In these circumstances I see only further deepening of divisions in society exacerbated in the first example by increased crime rates.
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Old 7th Jan 2019, 22:31
  #2497 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Parapunter View Post
Happy to concede I read too much into the question. FWIW, I felt one currency across 16 or so countries with diverse economies was not going to overcome those divergent factors sufficiently to act as a cohesive, unifying force. I haven't really seen much to contradict that view.
I'm not aware of US states wanting to leave their single currency, and there's 50 of them. (I might have missed something of course as I don't pay all that much attention to US politics.) It's possible that they have a better set of rules than the Euro, or that they actually bother to enforce them. (Greece saw France cheating slightly and thought "hey, if they can get away with doing that then we can get away with doing it a thousand times worse" - mistake.)
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Old 7th Jan 2019, 22:36
  #2498 (permalink)  
 
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Except of course Greece were at it long before the Euro was a thing. It remains nonetheless a convenient stick for leavers to beat the EU with. LOOK WHAT THEY DID TO GREECE! No mate, Greece are the authors of their own misfortune.
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Old 8th Jan 2019, 00:59
  #2499 (permalink)  
 
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And without London to sign off on any future loans in the Eu to save any countries banking systems.....

And it will be shits hits the fan within 3 to 6 months globally economically. Inflation in the Euro zone is already decreasing and QE hasn't even stopped yet..

Thick and fast is more than true... but everything will be done and dusted by then....

Waiting the usual pish about providing facts from posters that haven't set up for the bloody obvious and who's bum is pants down and wide open to a default exit.

BTW Greece are the headline and there about 4-5 who will quickly follow when 25% of intra EU travel becomes 3rd country travel and none EU. 17% alone of inra EU travel in between UK and Spain pairs. Loosing out on a few piss heads in Magaluf is the least of there issues.

But funny enough the EU has already said that they have given 1 year on that already maybe because a sphincter is twitching, but in real life the bookings won't be going through for next summer and they are looking at a shite load of bad debt to deal with next summer which will probably kick in about june this year.

So reckon they Eu is going to have to deal with 5 Eu countries with banking system in crisis and one of them includes Germany due to exposure in med countries.

Please please don't bother with the utterly stupid provide facts bollocks. If you are too thick to look a the EASA flight data statistics and look at the GDP from UK tourists and post some stupid narcky comment then sit back a presume that that's the situation sorted.... mean while the med countries are screwed and a load of innocent for want of a better word peasants are looking at a national crisis through no fault of their own.

Last edited by tescoapp; 8th Jan 2019 at 01:13.
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Old 8th Jan 2019, 06:23
  #2500 (permalink)  
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That all went according to plan then.....

But, no need to get overly concerned because, according to a C4 news report, the mayor of Ostende has helpfully mentioned there isn't a cat in hells chance of the proposed service beginning due to the, erm, unfortunate and inconvenient matter of nothing actually being signed and a shortage of something which comes in useful for companies.....known as cash, or liquidity for the pedantic .



https://www.theguardian.com/politics...estion-in-kent
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