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UK Politics Hamsterwheel MkII

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UK Politics Hamsterwheel MkII

Old 7th Jan 2019, 07:16
  #2461 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by cavortingcheetah View Post
Since the 2016 referendum the remain campaign has been boosted by lavish funding resulting in some extremely expensive court cases. It has received big bucks from overseas and from George Soros, wherever he may live. The remain campaign has had the full weight and invidious support of the treasury and benefited from that acerbic propaganda machine the BBC.
Given all of the above and a lot more besides that would be far too tedious to enumerate a 54/46 poll split in favour of remain is in reality a great boost for the leave campaign. The Brexiteers, far from being disheartened at such a result should congratulate themselves on the lie that has been given to the fifth columnist pro European forces in general and the all pervasive influence of the British Treasury in particular.
You may expect Ollie Robbins to be given a peerage when all this is over, for services to the nation although it will remain unclear whether the nation is the UK or a euphemism for the EU.
You seem to have conveniently ignored the sustained disinformation campaign, over many years, for various right wing media to print alarmist, false and complete lies headlines and articles promoting the reasons for leaving. There have been numerous posts on here exemplifying these headlines.....in case you missed them.

I know, it's drama and couldn't possibly be related to reality......

https://www.theguardian.com/commenti...minic-cummings

Last edited by Krystal n chips; 7th Jan 2019 at 08:09.
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Old 7th Jan 2019, 07:48
  #2462 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by NutLoose View Post
Show me in the terms of the EU it says we must pay anything, it does not, it simply says date, time and see you. You also seem to miss out on the fact a lot of the infrastructure we are leaving behind has been paid for by us, are we getting any assets back?
If you are the USA, or even perhaps China, of course you can take that sort of bullish stance. If the UK were the UK of the 19th century we could, and almost certainly would. However we aren't, and to behave in this manner would make a no deal Brexit even worse for the UK. Of course there are plenty of siren voices in the popular press, and among well healed politicians (the odd one or two still living the past!) who will promote that sort of nonsense. I doubt even our current PM is stupid (and yes I've said that word again in a non gender specific way!) to follow such a course.
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Old 7th Jan 2019, 07:53
  #2463 (permalink)  
 
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I personally believe that the media from both sides has actually been pretty ineffectual at changing public opinion on leave or remain in Europe.

Most of the chat is from the extremes on both sides having a go at what the otherside has said. It really hasn't made a difference at all to the folk in the middle.

The polls just now are 45/55 remain leave when you take the not telling and don't knows out of the equation.

If you keep them in then it goes to basically 50/50 split between the 2 and 20 odd percent also split 50/50 of the survey don't know or won't tell. I suspect most of the won't tell are leave. And that's been pretty much the case since before Cameron set the whole thing in motion.

As for the paying up...Ö it all depends who is in power. I am pretty sure Corybn won't pay a cent. Con government won't pay until a trade deal is the outcome.

Half of the claimed stuff is utter nonsense anyway.

But we are back to the golf club scenario if you leave the club you loose the assets but you also don't pay any subs any more.

I am in two minds what the first thing the EU will do after the UK is out. Will it be set up a pension fund so if it does crash then the politicians pensions are protected. Then change Art 50 so that a heap of financial penalties will kick in if ART 50 is triggered.

Last edited by tescoapp; 7th Jan 2019 at 08:04.
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Old 7th Jan 2019, 08:17
  #2464 (permalink)  
 
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The polls just now are 45/55 remain leave when you take the not telling and don't knows out of the equation.
Of course polls are by no means an accurate reflection of public opinion, and more so today with internet and phone interviewing rather than face to face. But worse than that there is the manipulation of data to reflect one's point of view, which I think is what you have tried to do here.

However, make absolutely no mistake if the hard Brexiteers (in fact all Brexiteers) really thought that the figures were as you describe they would be voting down TM's agreement, and pushing for a new referendum to confirm the 2016 decision. An conversely, remainers, and pragmatic Brexiteers would be swinging behind TM's deal as the least worst option.

Neither is happening. Why? Because that 45/55 analysis is false, Brexiteers know it, and are therefore dead against another vote and risking losing their ideological prize. I would feel similarly if the boot were on the other foot!
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Old 7th Jan 2019, 08:23
  #2465 (permalink)  
 
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Break. Break.

Reports coming in from the Garden of England. There are traffic delays on all roads as heavy good vehicles assemble for a fake traffic jam to prove goverment preparations for a managed no deal are fit for purpose.

That is all.
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Old 7th Jan 2019, 08:27
  #2466 (permalink)  
 
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Itís no use just blaming Brexiteers-although I agree some share blame for the current impasse. Remainers have resolutely refused to engage in discussing a sensible path ahead, instead staking everything on getting the referendum overturned. Itís a high-risk strategy which might give them the opposite of what they want.
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Old 7th Jan 2019, 08:28
  #2467 (permalink)  
 
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ATNotts

At least we can presumably take comfort from the fact that the well "healed" are still living, whether in the past or not.
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Old 7th Jan 2019, 08:39
  #2468 (permalink)  
 
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Woweeeee! Let's examine these far out, cosmic claims one by one.

Originally Posted by cavortingcheetah View Post
Since the 2016 referendum the remain campaign has been boosted by lavish funding resulting in some extremely expensive court cases.
There has certainly been a few quid flying around that much is true. However, we do at least know the source of funding on the remain side. Pray tell me the source of Leave.Eu's funding? Arron says it's from his businesses but that doesn't seem credible. The estimable Carole Cadwalladr & John Sweeney to name but two dogged journalists have conducted very thorough investigations into Banks' funding & come up with conclusions that raise more questions than answers. Certainly to the extent that plod are interested.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics...g-under-review



Originally Posted by cavortingcheetah View Post
It has received big bucks from overseas and from George Soros, wherever he may live.
Overseas? Other than Soros, can you elaborate on that? Surely you don't mean Russia. Sorry, that's the suspicion laying on the leave side. As for Soros, he has funded remain campaigners, post referendum & publicly declared. All in the open, as it should be. Nonetheless, you appear irritated that he's not domiciled in the UK. That could be filed along with Nigel Lawson, Rees-Mogg's Dublin operation & Redwoods' advice to clients but this is nitpicking. At least you didn't use Soros as shorthand for Jewish cabal. Small mercies.

Originally Posted by cavortingcheetah View Post
The remain campaign has had the full weight and invidious support of the treasury and benefited from that acerbic propaganda machine the BBC.
Tinfoil hat much? The treasury is an arm of the state, as, arguably is the BBC. Maybe take the dog for a walk, calm down a bit?


Originally Posted by cavortingcheetah View Post
Given all of the above
(swivel eyed speculative UKIP hobby horsery)


Originally Posted by cavortingcheetah View Post
You may expect Ollie Robbins to be given a peerage when all this is over, for services to the nation although it will remain unclear whether the nation is the UK or a euphemism for the EU.
And the denouement. It's been clear for months that leavers would continually claim that the whole farce is being derailed by 'them' since the minute you write down the details of any deal, it falls apart. It's literally the only way hard line leavers can pretend the thing is remotely workable.

And since I'm here, probably only briefly, please enjoy this piece on what Dominic Cummings, the architect of the leave campaign really thinks of his target audience.

https://medium.com/@willblack_53220/...u-a9aa346bbc16
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Old 7th Jan 2019, 09:15
  #2469 (permalink)  
 
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Brexiteers know it, and are therefore dead against another vote and risking losing their ideological prize.
Well that's certainly not the case for me.

Huge cost...

And I won't actually solve anything.

Realistically a second vote would take over a year to set up. Just setting the question would be a nightmare. Then we would have to go through all the spouting again. And Which ever way it goes then it will start everything off again. If it goes to remain as soon as something changes eg European army and a percentage of GDP going to that instead of national armed forces the there will be calls for a ref yet again. And if its still leave there will be just be a continuation of yet more attempts to stop just by other means.

That's the Uk side of things.

EU in some way's it is even worse for. They are stuck in limbo. UK still has its veto's and rebates which they had already said it was the intention to remove the next budget. It can't move forward with it more radical changes which need to happen to ensure its health and continuation towards its goal of a federal state. I won't even bother going on about the time limit it has with country demographics and working population age hitting a brick wall in some members states in the next 10 years so they have a clock ticking as well. They need it sorted one way or the other which is why the ECJ ruling about UK being able to cancel ARt 50 with no conditions really screwed things up.

Seems to me a likely outcome of running a referendum is by the time it all works its way through the EU will have failed anyway and the UK will be lumbered with dealing with it all anyway. So the remains will have got their way eventually but in doing so they will have killed the entity that they want to be a member of.
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Old 7th Jan 2019, 09:19
  #2470 (permalink)  
 
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Thank you Parapunter for a perfect illustration of the point made in my post above. Yes Iíd have preferred a different result too. But thatís not what happened. We need now to lay out a realistic course ahead. Not just state what we donít want.
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Old 7th Jan 2019, 09:32
  #2471 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by ShotOne View Post
Thank you Parapunter for a perfect illustration of the point made in my post above. Yes Iíd have preferred a different result too. But thatís not what happened. We need now to lay out a realistic course ahead. Not just state what we donít want.
I disagree. Remaining is a 100% known quantity. Those on that side do not have to present a workable plan, the mechanisms facilitating open free trade in goods, services & the freedom of movement for people are in place. The politics is a separate, thorny, seemingly irreconcilable issue but that doesn't alter the fact that at no point has anyone from leave put up a credible, workable exit plan & once you discard all the loonies arguing the toss over 40bn, sovereignty, a 'flood' of immigrants, you lot in London don't know anything & all the rest of the noise, it turns out there is a very, very good reason for that.
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Old 7th Jan 2019, 09:36
  #2472 (permalink)  
 
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Its not. The fundamental relationship has been altered, even if the UK stayed it won't be the same. It was getting aggressive before the vote due to the UK fundamentally not wanting to be in a federal Europe. Now its going to be brutal if the UK stays.
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Old 7th Jan 2019, 09:50
  #2473 (permalink)  
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As a tangent, may I ask our declared remainers and leavers if, in 1999, they were pro and anti joining the Euro?
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Old 7th Jan 2019, 09:54
  #2474 (permalink)  
 
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leaver against. Especially at the initial pegged rate which was taking the pee and was basically designed to kill all UK engineering off.
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Old 7th Jan 2019, 10:08
  #2475 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Pontius Navigator View Post
As a tangent, may I ask our declared remainers and leavers if, in 1999, they were pro and anti joining the Euro?
Might you be slightly more candid by asking - Remainers do you think the EU is a flawed edifice? Yes. It has a democratic deficit, the Euro is not a success, the geopolitical pendulum revolves around Germany & France and it badly mishandled the 2015 refugee crisis. Conversely, are the four freedoms a crowning glory & untrammelled success constituting the best arrangement for a market of 450bn people ? Also yes.
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Old 7th Jan 2019, 10:10
  #2476 (permalink)  
 
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Non voter. Basically in favour of the Euro in principle simply because I travel a lot in France. However, whatever you may think of him, Gordon Brown laid down parameters for our joining and they were not met. Once again my view was a pragmatic one, a bit like passports really where I regard the colour as an irrelevance. This tends to be a Leaver problem they decide upon things based on perceived "Britishness". It isn't a good test.
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Old 7th Jan 2019, 10:13
  #2477 (permalink)  
 
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the Euro is not a success
Its a great success and has successfully ensured certain countries and artificially low exchange rate in the world market resulting in huge economic benefits for those select countries.

personally I think the euro zone should be split into 3 if not 4 areas and have an umbrella standards organisation covering all countries. But that defeats the plan of a federal Europe so they won't go for it.
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Old 7th Jan 2019, 10:54
  #2478 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by tescoapp View Post
Well that's certainly not the case for me.

Huge cost...

And I won't actually solve anything.

Realistically a second vote would take over a year to set up. Just setting the question would be a nightmare. Then we would have to go through all the spouting again. And Which ever way it goes then it will start everything off again. If it goes to remain as soon as something changes eg European army and a percentage of GDP going to that instead of national armed forces the there will be calls for a ref yet again. And if its still leave there will be just be a continuation of yet more attempts to stop just by other means.

That's the Uk side of things.

EU in some way's it is even worse for. They are stuck in limbo. UK still has its veto's and rebates which they had already said it was the intention to remove the next budget. It can't move forward with it more radical changes which need to happen to ensure its health and continuation towards its goal of a federal state. I won't even bother going on about the time limit it has with country demographics and working population age hitting a brick wall in some members states in the next 10 years so they have a clock ticking as well. They need it sorted one way or the other which is why the ECJ ruling about UK being able to cancel ARt 50 with no conditions really screwed things up.

Seems to me a likely outcome of running a referendum is by the time it all works its way through the EU will have failed anyway and the UK will be lumbered with dealing with it all anyway. So the remains will have got their way eventually but in doing so they will have killed the entity that they want to be a member of.
You persist with the mantra that the EU is about to fail. People on your selves of the debate have been saying that for what seems like ever. There no sign, not an iota of an indication, that there one member state apart from the UK that wants to leave the EU. Yes, you've got the FN in France who are Euosceptic, with particular regard to the Euro, the AfD which is a rather unpleasant racist party, not particularly anti EU, just from German, and nutters like Urban who's now in a spot of bother and the Poles too - but in all those nations these no appetite for politcal and economic suicide - that's a UK issue. in all these countries there's no poling evidence of anywhere near a majority wanting to leave the EU, or the Euro where appropriate. And of course, forecasts of the Euro's demise have been constant from people in the UK, but 20-odd years on it's nowhere near happening, in fact it's probably more stable now than since it's inception.

As for another referendum; it's not ideal, and certainly if there were one, and it went in favour of remain, by anthing less than 60 / 40, whilst it might resolve the issue for 5 - 10 years the usual suspects, for as long as they're not in the boxes will continue to lobby and agitate. If however if confirmed leave, by even a small margin under May's terms we're out, that's it, gone, handed over the keys and that would be the issue settled for at least a generation. That's surely a prize worth winning from leavers, and I really don't understand why they are so against it - unless of course, to quote Mrs. Thatcher they're "frit".

Mrs. May's best chance of winning next Tuesday's vote is to make it clear to MPs, especially on her and the DUP side that if they don't vote for her agreement there will be a referendum (she can't call a general election under the fixed parliament rules herself though I expect Corbyn would leap at the opportunity) on her agreement on remain. Given the apparent appetite for leave among Tory membership (not voters necessarily) would they risk no Brexit rather than vote for her deal? I doubt it.

Of course, she'd lose half her cabinet if she nailed her colours to that mast, but with no possible Tory leadership challenge for 11 months, and no party conference for 9 months she could replace those cabinet members with "yes" men and women.

If she wins the vote in parliament that's a famous victory for her, allows her to leave the leadership at a time of her choosing, or next December perhaps, If she lost the vote and had a referendum that she won, the same situation. If the referendum went the "wrong" way then like Cameron egg all over face(s), the people however have made their decision, and (for now) we can move on. She still leaves, certainly December, probably sooner.

Either way she get her obligatory peerage, lecture tours and I would think very lucrative book deal.
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Old 7th Jan 2019, 10:59
  #2479 (permalink)  
 
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For Those Who Insist On Running Down The UK

In the 1800's the UK effectively ruled the world.
In the 1900's the UK fought in two World Wars and came out on the winning side in both.
In the 2000's the UK still has a nuclear deterrent that is capable of ending civilisation across the planet.

What exactly has changed? Our population and wealth has grown, London is a huge player in financial markets, we still lead the world in many areas of research and innovation. Great Britain is the eighth largest island on the planet. The UK has not significantly diminished in stature or influence in the last two hundred years.

The UK is more than capable of managing its affairs without the EU. Whether the EU can survive without the UK remains to be seen, but the historical evidence suggests that it won't; at least in its current form.

Embrace Brexit.
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Old 7th Jan 2019, 10:59
  #2480 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Pontius Navigator View Post
As a tangent, may I ask our declared remainers and leavers if, in 1999, they were pro and anti joining the Euro?
At the time pro, as I was involved in European trade and business and could see the tangible benefits of a single currency; I still can. What I didn't appreciate to how a non manufacturing economy, build largely on consumer debt and how much equity of got in my house is an economy built on sand and had we joined the Euro we would have gone down the tubes like Ireland, Spain and Portugal. All of those are now recovering, but rather like Brexit, is self harm worth it for possible longer term gain?

If you asked me today in a hypothetical referendum should the UK join the Euro I'd say, with a heavy heart, no.
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