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On the eve of war

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On the eve of war

Old 14th Jun 2019, 06:10
  #1021 (permalink)  
 
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Old 14th Jun 2019, 06:19
  #1022 (permalink)  
 
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Having watched the video, I was left wondering what exactly was going on there. If they had really planted limpet mines, they got the location wrong. 8 feet above the water line is hardly ideal. Secondly, the "T" marks a strong point that tugs can use to push when necessary so hardly an ideal place to place a mine. The video has no time stamp so could have been recorded at any time. Finally, if the US aircraft that made this recording was on scene and had seen what was going on, who did they warn? It may be an age related thing but I certainly couldn't see any mines.
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Old 14th Jun 2019, 06:44
  #1023 (permalink)  
 
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Agreed, as above, however, another thought comes to mind that the objective was not to sink the ships, but to advertise with a bit of fire and smoke, their capabilities.(i.e. if we can do it eight feet above the water line, we can do it eight feet below. Re. the strong point, another opportunity to create a large flash and bank with little chance of loss-of-life, a major fire or a sinking. Finally, was the guy removing said limpet mine a bomb disposal expert or not, because as far as I can see he was not wearing any protective clothing. Did he know it was not activated?, Was it one of theirs or someone else's and he was performing a humanitarian action.

Questions, Questions, Questions....

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Old 14th Jun 2019, 06:52
  #1024 (permalink)  
 
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One thing is for sure, and that is if they were removing a mine from the ship then that's not in any way, shape or form indicative that Iran was responsible for putting the mine there. It seems entirely reasonable that anyone who reached the ship first should try to prevent further damage to the ship. Would the US be getting the blame for having placed mines if they were the ones out there removing them (assuming that's what was being done)?

My money is still on this being the Saudi's trying to stir things. We know full well that they are capable of it, and that they are not averse to taking extreme action outside their own borders (think back to the murder of Jamal Kashoggi, for example).
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Old 14th Jun 2019, 06:55
  #1025 (permalink)  
 
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The tug push points are a very logical place for mines if mines were placed by the tug crew ...
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Old 14th Jun 2019, 07:09
  #1026 (permalink)  
 
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Imagegear: Agree with all your points above. Just to muddy the waters further, I have just heard comments on the BBC from 2 "experts". First was from James Clapper, (former USAF General and Director of National Intelligence). He referred to the US operation that brought the US Navy to the Strait of Hormuz "to protect tankers passing through the Strait". Almost accurate; the US Navy was deployed to the Strait to protect US registered shipping. This led to Kuwait and Saudi Arabia re-registering their fleets in the US. Apparently, the US had made it clear that their Navy would be able only to protect US registered vessels. So he was partially correct.
Next was a former First Sea Lord (I think it may have been Admiral West) who was pleased to announce that the R.N. had just opened a new base in Bahrain (What? To replace the one we have had there for hundreds of years?) in order to protect the Strait of Hormuz against mines. He talked about having R.N. mine hunters based there in order to react to the threat of mines in the Strait of Hormuz. I have never travelled from Bahrain to the Strait of Hormuz by sea but I have made similar journeys overland, for example Kuwait to Al Ain, Abu Dhabi to Muscat etc., and can assure him it is a long slog. A more suitable base would be Fujairah. To give the man his due though, the remainder of what he said was sensible, talking of the risks of the situation escalating.
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Old 14th Jun 2019, 07:20
  #1027 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by WingNut60 View Post
There was a time when a claim such as this from the U.S. would have elicited instant acceptance in the West and condemnation of Iran at all levels.
Who now would just accept the claim, even half-heartedly.
To answer your question, the US's lap dog in chief - the United Kingdom. The FO is reported this morning as agreeing with the US analysis of the situation.

Notwithstanding the fact that in the current political situation, the UK needs the USA to get a trade deal, one wonders why the UK is so keen to hang on to US coat tails, and hopes that other European nations may take a more scepticle view.
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Old 14th Jun 2019, 07:22
  #1028 (permalink)  
 
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This video is final proof that Iran is in possession of weapons of mass destruction.
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Old 14th Jun 2019, 07:41
  #1029 (permalink)  
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https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/...tanker-attacks

......The US military also released a photo it claimed showed a mine on the side of the Kokuka Courageous and some damage to the hull.



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Old 14th Jun 2019, 13:01
  #1030 (permalink)  
 
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So Iran attacked two Japanese tankers at the exact same time a Japanese Prime Minister is in Tehran for the first time in 40 years for negotiations the US disapproved of?

Some is going to have to tell the US government to hire a better scriptwriter for the CIA, because that story is a complete, illogical joke.
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Old 14th Jun 2019, 15:18
  #1031 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Slow and curious View Post
This video is final proof that Iran is in possession of weapons of mass destruction.
Time to invade Iceland then.
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Old 14th Jun 2019, 17:01
  #1032 (permalink)  
 
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Well all you defenders of Iran. Why haven't they displayed the 'American' limpet mine they recovered? Wouldn't that make great propaganda?

Of course Iran is behind this. They are making a point. We can shut down this strait anytime.

Of course some of you would rather believe it's the Americans. Which amply demonstrates how gullible you are.

Why wouldn't it be the Iranians? They know Trump has no stomach for war. They want him to back down.
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Old 14th Jun 2019, 17:54
  #1033 (permalink)  
 
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I don't think for a minute that this was a US operation.

What exactly has Iran got to gain by acting to raise international tension against themselves? That's the thing I can't get my head around. This doesn't seem to be a show of power, related to being able to just close the Strait of Hormuz, as if it was then sailing gunboats across the bows of tankers, or undertaking military exercises nearby, demonstrating Iran's ability to sink tankers using bombs, torpedoes or missiles, would make the point more forcefully.

The covert nature of these attacks, with no claims by anyone as to who's doing them, seems to be casting Iran in a pretty unfavourable light, and I can't honestly see Iran wanting to take a poke at the US. On the other hand, this sort of action fits near-perfectly with the objectives and past history of actions, of Saudi Arabia. The Saudi's would like nothing better than to show Iran as an aggressor and so provide a reason for the US to consider taking military action.

For the record, I'm no supporter of Iran, I'm just struggling to understand why Iran would want to poke the US bear with a sharp stick.
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Old 14th Jun 2019, 18:20
  #1034 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by ORAC View Post
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/...tanker-attacks

......The US military also released a photo it claimed showed a mine on the side of the Kokuka Courageous and some damage to the hull.



If these were limpet mines, the morons who put them there should be court martialed and executed with limpet mines attached to their ass.
Maybe the Iranian navy use TNT fed jelly fish instead of seals and the Saudis have trained their oyster reared camels for marine ops.That would then make more sense. The Israelis wouldn`t need to be so cunning. Their jobs carry a no quibble full refund guarantee.

The puzzling thing here is why is there no one standing up shouting, yelling and banging on his chest. Perhaps they have already been court martialed and are running around trying to put out the fires from their flaming bottoms.
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Old 14th Jun 2019, 19:53
  #1035 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by KelvinD View Post
Having watched the video, I was left wondering what exactly was going on there. If they had really planted limpet mines, they got the location wrong. 8 feet above the water line is hardly ideal. Secondly, the "T" marks a strong point that tugs can use to push when necessary so hardly an ideal place to place a mine. The video has no time stamp so could have been recorded at any time. Finally, if the US aircraft that made this recording was on scene and had seen what was going on, who did they warn? It may be an age related thing but I certainly couldn't see any mines.
Perhaps the US have much clearer images than the video they have publicly released and have kept them to themselves so as not to compromise what capabilities they have? The question I ask myself is: If the US military filmed this taking place why didn't they simply follow the boat back to its destination which would surely give a much clearer idea as to who was behind the mission?
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Old 14th Jun 2019, 20:55
  #1036 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by KelvinD View Post
Having watched the video, I was left wondering what exactly was going on there. If they had really planted limpet mines, they got the location wrong. 8 feet above the water line is hardly ideal. Secondly, the "T" marks a strong point that tugs can use to push when necessary so hardly an ideal place to place a mine. The video has no time stamp so could have been recorded at any time. Finally, if the US aircraft that made this recording was on scene and had seen what was going on, who did they warn? It may be an age related thing but I certainly couldn't see any mines.
Whatever was removed matches up with the location of the still images and video. On the 2nd link there is a slightly enhanced version of the video. It does look like that an object is being removed. It was also reported that the crew of the M/T Kokuka Courageous themselves noted the object attached to the tanker before they abandoned it.



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Old 14th Jun 2019, 22:36
  #1037 (permalink)  
 
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„God created the world, everything else is made in China.“
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Old 14th Jun 2019, 23:20
  #1038 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by VP959 View Post
I don't think for a minute that this was a US operation.

What exactly has Iran got to gain by acting to raise international tension against themselves? That's the thing I can't get my head around. This doesn't seem to be a show of power, related to being able to just close the Strait of Hormuz, as if it was then sailing gunboats across the bows of tankers, or undertaking military exercises nearby, demonstrating Iran's ability to sink tankers using bombs, torpedoes or missiles, would make the point more forcefully.

The covert nature of these attacks, with no claims by anyone as to who's doing them, seems to be casting Iran in a pretty unfavourable light, and I can't honestly see Iran wanting to take a poke at the US. On the other hand, this sort of action fits near-perfectly with the objectives and past history of actions, of Saudi Arabia. The Saudi's would like nothing better than to show Iran as an aggressor and so provide a reason for the US to consider taking military action.

For the record, I'm no supporter of Iran, I'm just struggling to understand why Iran would want to poke the US bear with a sharp stick.
Dream on man. Really you actually think the Saudis have the imagination to do it?

Why are you struggling to understand why Iran would poke the US bear with a sharp stick? They've been doing it for years. They are not stupid people. The Persians have been doing it for millenia. They are a highly sophisticated civilisation. Yes they've gone rogue and adopted a bizarre Islamic dogma.

Totally out of sync with the reality of the people. Iran could be a superpower in the Middle East. Not Arab but Persian.

But no they are controlled by clerics, so basically they don't live in the real world.

Hence the nonsense and the hostility to the outside world.

So placing limpet mines on ships makes sense in their disordered world.

Iran doesn't need nuclear weapons. They don't need to be enemies of America. They don't even need to be enemies of Israel. Iran doesn't but the people in power need to keep themselves in power by having enemies. It's that cynical.

It's so obvious I wonder why I even need to point it out.




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Old 15th Jun 2019, 04:54
  #1039 (permalink)  
 
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The clerics know that they do not control the armed forces; they are mostly useful figureheads.

About that cone/pyramid on the side of the ship. It looks nothing like the complex limpet mines that are being shown elsewhere in the press. Does Iran buy their pyramid mines from Egypt, or manufacture their own Ziggurats?

In the Arab press, similarities to these tanker attacks are being noted to previous attacks by the Houtis in the Red Sea. But then Iranian weaponry is gradually being spread throughout the Middle East, so other state actors such as Russia or Israel could, if necessary, be using captured Iranian stuff. If the Ayatollah had been shown a picture of the tanker with a ticking Iranian mine still attached to it, though, I'll bet he would have ordered a boat to go and take it off.

What is an act of war, anyway? Removing a 'limpet mine'? Firing a missile at a drone?
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Old 15th Jun 2019, 05:57
  #1040 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Steepclimb View Post
....
Iran doesn't need nuclear weapons. They don't need to be enemies of America. They don't even need to be enemies of Israel. Iran doesn't but the people in power need to keep themselves in power by having enemies. It's that cynical.

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Absolutely correct.
The secret to retaining support at home is to make sure that the great unwashed are always under the shadow of a looming threat.
And you can apply that philosophy to every despot - middle-eastern, western or otherwise.
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