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No new Diesel or Petrol cars after 2040 in UK

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No new Diesel or Petrol cars after 2040 in UK

Old 12th Sep 2020, 17:15
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Must be great to own some car repair shop.
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Old 12th Sep 2020, 18:26
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Less Hair
Not sure if your comment was aimed at me or Tesla owners, but if it is ourselves we are just good at what we both do, and she is better than me in that respect, no offence given I hope.

Kind regards
Mr Mac
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Old 12th Sep 2020, 18:34
  #543 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by M.Mouse View Post
Just two comments. The thought of hydrogen pressurised to 700 bar sounds exceedingly frightening to me. Interestingly I recall Raymond Baxter on Tomorrow's World doing a piece on cars powered by the 'forever fuel' fuel and extolling its virtues. That was in the 1970s! For numerous reasons, such as those listed by VP959, I just do not see it happening.
The main reason alternatives fuels be they, electricity, hydrogen or whatever have taken so long to get anywhere, is that it was not in the interests of the oil producers or oil companies for it to happen and I think you will find that some of them even took steps to stifle development. With the pressure on the environment, global warming etc, it is difficult for them to stop it. Some oil companies are even investing in EV and hydrogen infrastructure, to avoid them having no future.
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Old 12th Sep 2020, 18:34
  #544 (permalink)  
 
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Mr. Mac. No offense intended. Apologies.
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Old 12th Sep 2020, 19:06
  #545 (permalink)  

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Must be great to own some car repair shop.
What is meant by that comment?
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Old 13th Sep 2020, 09:57
  #546 (permalink)  
 
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Look at the amount of research and development that went into the ICE, compare a 1980s car to a 2020 car. The improvement is phenomenal in terms of performance, fuel consumption and emissions. A family hatchback today has the performance of a 1980 supercar.

Now imagine all that research and development going into EVs. The current generation are at triple the range compared to 10 years ago and rapid chargers have significantly reduced the time it takes to fill up the battery. An ICE wastes 75% of the energy it produces to heat and friction, the concept has gone about as far as it can and is already at an extremely complicated level. Further improvements run into the law of diminishing returns.

An EV only wastes 25% of its energy and that figure will probably improve. Once they are mainstream and mass produced, serious R&D will be taking place and costs will come down further.
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Old 13th Sep 2020, 10:29
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The point about where we are in the development curve with EVs is a good one. ICE vehicles have had more than 120 years of development to get where they are now. EVs have had about 15 years of development. I believe that one reason that ICE vehicles are relatively cheap is because of all that time that's been spent in optimising and reducing production cost. That probably didn't start until Henry Ford came along, but that's still ~100 years of cost optimisation. EVs are still at about the 1930's stage of cost optimisation compared to ICE vehicles, so it's not that surprising that they are still relatively costly.

Be interesting to see what Battery Day reveals later this month. I suspect we're going to see a 500 mile range EV and the announcement of the million mile battery going into production. Although there's been a lot of hype about the million mile battery, I'm not sure it's that big a development, as existing batteries are good for a couple of hundred thousand miles or more, and there aren't many cars that do as much as that in their lifetime. I think the million mile battery is probably going to be aimed at trucks, who may well do that sort of mileage in their lifetime.
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Old 13th Sep 2020, 11:04
  #548 (permalink)  
 
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Again the first Porsche 100 years ago was electric. EVs had the same time to mature. They didn't except for very specific purposes. Like industrial indoor use and such. It's not like paradise is coming for EVs today but ICE are hellbound. Only when seriously better energy storage gets available to the mass market this might change. And this includes the required battery life, green recycling and such.
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Old 13th Sep 2020, 11:44
  #549 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Less Hair View Post
Again the first Porsche 100 years ago was electric. EVs had the same time to mature. They didn't except for very specific purposes. Like industrial indoor use and such. It's not like paradise is coming for EVs today but ICE are hellbound. Only when seriously better energy storage gets available to the mass market this might change. And this includes the required battery life, green recycling and such.
How much better does energy storage need to be, though? The only reason that EVs have become viable at all in the last 15 years or so is because of the development of lithium ion cells. With very much greater capacity, reduced weight and zero maintenance when compared to other battery chemistries, this single technological development allowed EVs to become more practical. In the past fifteen years or so we've seen pretty significant improvements in lithium cell technology, such that the cells in my car (which themselves are a five year old design, now) are more than double the energy density of the cells from around 2010, and about 6 times the energy density of a lead acid cell. The next generation of cells look as if they may increase energy density by about 50% on these cells.

Now we have 300 mile range plus battery packs in a number of different EVs, I think that what needs to happen is for the price of these to come down. 300 miles is almost certainly enough range for the vast majority of cars, especially now there is a pretty big network of rapid chargers (there are now more chargers in the UK than filling stations). The 300+ mile battery packs we have now are probably good enough for most people, accepting that there will always be a few edge cases where people will have an essential requirement to drive something like 500 miles without stopping (not that I personally think that's safe, at least on UK roads).

Reducing the manufacturing cost, rather than making showcase performance cars to convince a minority of some of the benefits of EVs is what's needed now. Kia and Hyundai seem to be doing exactly this, they are probably the only EV manufacturers that are, I think. They've chosen to produce practical, easy to drive EVs that are somewhat more affordable than many others. They're still not priced to compete with an equivalent ICE vehicle, but the price gap does seem to be closing. I've driven the Kona, and it's a damned impressive car for the money. The friend that owns it has taken long touring holidays across Europe in it, without any problems at all, so it seems pretty clear that there's no issue with range or practicality, the only real issue is the relatively high price.
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Old 13th Sep 2020, 11:53
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Ammonia can also be used to produced hydrogen meaning the high pressure 700 bar rated storage tanks are not really necessary as the hydrogen is generated on demand. However, it appears creating ammonia currently requires burning carbon so it's currently not truly green. Read an interesting article that suggested that in the near future service stations could be converted to mini e-refineries where they use ammonia to generate hydrogen to generate electricity to fast charge EVs. The article also suggested that this concept could first begin with shipping at major ports where electric ferries are in use.
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Old 13th Sep 2020, 12:01
  #551 (permalink)  
 
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I see hydrogen as the more promising way as well especially if otherwise unneeded wind energy like the one generated at off-peak times and such can be used.
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Old 13th Sep 2020, 13:04
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Harry Metcalfe has been looking at various electric and hybrid cars over the last year or two and has posted this latest update/review:
I don't think he's tried a Hydrogen fuel-cell car, but I think it sums up the current position very well.
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Old 13th Sep 2020, 14:44
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A few thoughts for everyone.
Ceres Power, a UK company, designs fuel cells that convert gas (natural or hydrogen) to electricity and heat.
They are being used by Bosch to replace domestic heating boilers - locally produced electricity in your garage plus heat that in the winter wil be used to heat the house and hot water. At home this gas can be mains (natural) gas or hydrogen. The gas mains people are looking to change from natural gas to hydrogen delivery at some point in the future.
They are also being used as power plants for trucks and buses where batteries are too low in energy.
By bringing power generation to people's houses, it will enable (those with parking and charger) to charge their own vehicle without the massive investment in national grid and substations needed to charge all these vehicles. (how green is that? Mining thousands of tons of copper etc.)
That's where we need to get to. How we get there is another story, that is unclear. For the moment, keep an eye on your neighbours installing chargers for their cars, because one day, the load will get too high and the substation will trip and everyone will be without electricity for everything, not just chargers.
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Old 13th Sep 2020, 15:44
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Originally Posted by Blackfriar View Post
A few thoughts for everyone.
Ceres Power, a UK company, designs fuel cells that convert gas (natural or hydrogen) to electricity and heat.
They are being used by Bosch to replace domestic heating boilers - locally produced electricity in your garage plus heat that in the winter wil be used to heat the house and hot water. At home this gas can be mains (natural) gas or hydrogen. The gas mains people are looking to change from natural gas to hydrogen delivery at some point in the future.
They are also being used as power plants for trucks and buses where batteries are too low in energy.
By bringing power generation to people's houses, it will enable (those with parking and charger) to charge their own vehicle without the massive investment in national grid and substations needed to charge all these vehicles. (how green is that? Mining thousands of tons of copper etc.)
That's where we need to get to. How we get there is another story, that is unclear. For the moment, keep an eye on your neighbours installing chargers for their cars, because one day, the load will get too high and the substation will trip and everyone will be without electricity for everything, not just chargers.
Interesting to hear about that company, thanks.

I saw a small fuel cell generator a couple of years ago, being used to power an exhibition stand's lights, that was using alcohol as fuel, and I thought that had promise. It seems these units are readily available for caravans etc, as silent replacements for generators. Be interesting to see more development in liquid fuelled fuel cells, as they've always seemed to be a bit of the edge of the mainstream, although clearly they've been developed for at least one market. There are some definite advantages from using liquid fuel, like the high energy density, and the ease of transport and storage, as well as it being well-understood from a safety and handling perspective. Much the same applies to LPG, as we already use it in bulk, and LNG is very similar in most respects.
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Old 13th Sep 2020, 16:15
  #555 (permalink)  
 
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Research into ICE engines has limited applications, basically motor vehicles, where as research into battery technology has a multitude of possible end uses. I have one device powered by an ICE, my car but trying to count the number that I have powered by batteries would be difficult.

The demand for more powerful and longer lasting batteries in the consumer electronics sector alone is unending. A teacher told me nearly 40 years ago that there will always be electricity and so far he's been right.
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Old 13th Sep 2020, 21:31
  #556 (permalink)  

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Fifty years ago my physics teacher explained how hydrogen powered fuel cells work and how they would soon play a big part in our lives. He may have been partly right but the word “soon” was more than a little optimistic. The main problem is the relatively slow rate at which they work. Hydrogen burnt in an ICE can be much more powerful.

I doubt today’s EV owners would be happy to trundle along at the speed of a Sinclair C5, rather than at the rapid rate they are used to. Hopefully that’s not the way we’re headed. But if we are all to convert to electricity, for there to be enough to go around, surely some compromises will have to be made one way or another.
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Old 13th Sep 2020, 21:51
  #557 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Blackfriar View Post
A few thoughts for everyone.
Ceres Power, a UK company, designs fuel cells that convert gas (natural or hydrogen) to electricity and heat.
They are being used by Bosch to replace domestic heating boilers - locally produced electricity in your garage plus heat that in the winter wil be used to heat the house and hot water. At home this gas can be mains (natural) gas or hydrogen. The gas mains people are looking to change from natural gas to hydrogen delivery at some point in the future.
They are also being used as power plants for trucks and buses where batteries are too low in energy.
By bringing power generation to people's houses, it will enable (those with parking and charger) to charge their own vehicle without the massive investment in national grid and substations needed to charge all these vehicles. (how green is that? Mining thousands of tons of copper etc.)
That's where we need to get to. How we get there is another story, that is unclear. For the moment, keep an eye on your neighbours installing chargers for their cars, because one day, the load will get too high and the substation will trip and everyone will be without electricity for everything, not just chargers.
i donít think the problem is having the power or distribution grid to charge cars. That can be done overnight when demand for power is low. Electricity to replace gas for heating is another matter. Heat is needed during the day and replacing a typical 25kW boiler will need a supply higher than the typical 7.5kW home EV charger even if heat pumps are more power efficient than gas boilers.
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Old 13th Sep 2020, 22:32
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Cheap, clean, renewable energy has been a holy grail which we are still trying to find. Unlike fossil fuels, electricity won’t run out as you simply generate it. The means of generation is another matter but fortunately there are multiple options from sun to wind to nuclear. Norway’s abundance of hydro electric power may have something to do with the high take up rate of EVs. Even the most backward of third world countries manages to generate power.

It might be possible in the next century for a car to incorporate a fuel cell which powers it for life, or only requires replacing annually at service time. However, in the meantime while R&D is going on, we’ll be driving EVs. Once replacement by fuel cells becomes a viable option in terms of cost and infrastructure, there could be a change over, but I doubt very many of us will be around by then.
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Old 14th Sep 2020, 08:13
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Quick snapshot of our high street as I drove into town this Saturday. Two Teslas ahead of me, a 3 and an S (both white) with a Black model X coming the other way. On the way back home I followed the first Audi e-Tron I've seen almost immediately replaced by the first Mini electric hereabouts ( they have a discrete yellow badge) then a Kia e-Niro near my house.

Things are changing.....
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Old 15th Sep 2020, 06:55
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Snapshot of my own, driving home yesterday.
Of 30 cars coming at me, counted in lots of 10, there were 4/10 SUV or Tradie Trucks, next group 6/10, then 4/10. Petrol and diesel. The rest sedans or hatches of various sorts.

Not an electric car sighted. Maybe those who can afford them stayed off the road during the time that common workers were about.

I traded up my Tiguan diesel recently for a Tiguan Allspace, no longer available with a diesel. I really miss the diesel for its low-down grunt and fuel economy.
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