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Brexit: The telephone box hampsterwheel

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Brexit: The telephone box hampsterwheel

Old 17th Aug 2017, 18:32
  #16221 (permalink)  
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Totally free movement of people and goods between Eire and Northern Ireland needn't compromise the security (or taxation/duty) of Great Britain.

It does, however, suggest the need for comprehensive border controls between 'Ireland' and the UK.

A small price to pay compared to reintroducing border controls within Ireland.
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Old 17th Aug 2017, 19:51
  #16222 (permalink)  
 
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I thought Northern Ireland was part of the UK )) are you suggesting FOM between North and South with the border control into the rest of the UK from South and North
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Old 17th Aug 2017, 19:52
  #16223 (permalink)  
 
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Theresa cannot stand, let alone walk without her Northern Irish crutches. So the simple solution will be to shift the border control over to mainland UK and let them go to/from their boozers and run their fuel excise duty dodge trade freely.
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Old 17th Aug 2017, 20:50
  #16224 (permalink)  
 
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Frankly that is all that would work but not sure on the legal implications and other stumbling blocks on all that

Brexit is all heading to ending in tears seems to be make it all up as you go around the bar on the back of a cigarette packet
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Old 17th Aug 2017, 22:54
  #16225 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by Pace View Post
I thought Northern Ireland was part of the UK )) are you suggesting FOM between North and South with the border control into the rest of the UK from South and North
Sorry - I should have written Great Britain.

What I meant was indeed FOM between Eire and Northern Ireland and strict border control between the island of Ireland (Eire/Northern Ireland) and the island of Great Britain (England/Scotland/Wales and the Isle of Man).
Most trade would be by ship or aircraft (with existing border control functions).
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Old 18th Aug 2017, 08:38
  #16226 (permalink)  
 
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Brexit is all heading to ending in tears seems to be make it all up as you go around the bar on the back of a cigarette packet[/QUOTE]

From a non voting position at the referendum that is the conclusion that I have now arrived at. Fortunately by March 2019 I should have all my ducks in a row. It is my intention to ensure that I am sufficiently liquid by then so that if/when the solids strike the air conditioning I can hit the silk regarding the UK.
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Old 18th Aug 2017, 08:48
  #16227 (permalink)  
 
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Two very informed but contrasting opinions

https://www.theguardian.com/politics...says-thinktank

be interesting to see who is right.
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Old 18th Aug 2017, 08:49
  #16228 (permalink)  
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Border controls between NI and the mainlan wouldn't ge through the courts - or Parliament.

Meanwhile - the dog days of summer stories......

https://capx.co/dont-believe-the-brexit-hysteria/
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Old 18th Aug 2017, 08:53
  #16229 (permalink)  
 
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Its only seeming to be ending in tears if you were under the delusion that the EU commission and EU were going to allow anything other than a default no deal exit. Or a mircial is going to happen and everything is going to be reversed and things back to normal before the 29th of March 2019.

For those of us that could see the writing on the wall from as soon as the referendum was announced its pretty much going as we expected.

And yes you do need to line your ducks up in the expectation about what's going to happen.

Phase 1 of my ducks is complete and I am now setting up for phase 2 which banks on the pound staying the same level or lower up until after the exit. And then I will transfer a load of cash over to the UK again. I haven't decided if its going into property or I will go back into the UK stockmarket we shall have to see nearer the time. After which I expect the pound to strengthen quite rapidly after the situation is known. And get back up to the 1.30 mark at least if not more within 2-3 years. At which point I will see what state the Euro is in.
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Old 18th Aug 2017, 08:53
  #16230 (permalink)  
 
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Effluent Man

Seven Reasons The UK's New Customs System Might Not Be Ready For Brexit - HuffPost UK
https://apple.news/AHzGGUvVvQyqtIlH5Top3SA

If we don't get the transition the whole country will grind to an embarrassing halt amidst chaos the next day
The above shows how totally unprepared and amateurish this government is!
They deserve to loose a vote of no confidence in their bumbling dads army mess
It's disgraceful
It would be funny if not so serious for people's lives and incomes
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Old 18th Aug 2017, 08:58
  #16231 (permalink)  
 
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Bizarrely the only ones seeing it all 'ending in tears' are those that fell hook line and sinker for the original and on going Project Fear and the dilly dalliers.

Pretty much every Leave voter I know saw the current situation on the horizon and are content that things are going to plan.
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Old 18th Aug 2017, 09:03
  #16232 (permalink)  
 
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UBS Wealth Management: The pound is 'extremely undervalued' right now - uk.businessinsider.com
UBS Wealth Management: The pound is 'extremely undervalued' right now - Business Insider

Tesco App
If you are indeed currency trading expectations are the pound will continue down to maybe even below parity with the Euro
This is in part with the strengthening Eurozone and continually weakening uk economy
Estimates for the next down turn are autumn this year so waiting for brexit day a mistake
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Old 18th Aug 2017, 09:19
  #16233 (permalink)  
 
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If the headline is correct and the Pound is undervalued, then anyone investing in the UK is getting an incredible deal. At some point in the future, perhaps after the 29th of March 2019, a market correction will take take place.

Financial investment for profit is a long term game. Clearly investors need to hold off to ensure that the UK does indeed make a clean break from the EU. The worst case scenario is a fudged Brexit with some extended transition period from a speculator's point of view.

Out means out! The government needs to be seen to be keeping its promise to the people of the UK and fully disengaging from the EU. Any other course of action will result in loss of trust by financial markets and a reluctance to invest in the UK.

Everything is going according to plan, the secret one that no one is telling Pace. I have never known so many people able to keep a secret for so long. Just goes to show what happens when we all unify as a nation. Not so long to go now chaps (and chapesses).
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Old 18th Aug 2017, 09:34
  #16234 (permalink)  
 
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It won't be ready Pace until people give up on the negotiations or any thought that there may be anything other than a no deal exit. And put all the effort into dealing with the most likely state of play on the day.

The fact that the UK won't be ready does not stop the clock ticking down.

Estimates for the next down turn are autumn this year so waiting for brexit day a mistake
Yep but the poo is going to hit the fan with the Eu in autumn as well in Spain. Which way that one will go I don't know. Also as well the pound strength is going to hit the med country's hard next year so autumn will be quite a few airlines going bust and panic when the hotel rooms bookings next year are well down.

As so far you have spectacularly wrong with all your predictions I will not take you advice and stick to my plan. Which I have been very successful with so far.

The longer this faffing about not excepting its going to be a no deal exit goes on the more uncertainty there will be an the lower the pound will go against the euro.

As soon as there is a known state then the pound will start going up again even if the economy at the time is low. When it starts building and with every trade deal done external to the Eu it will jump up. When a deal is done with the EU after 1-2 years when the exporters to the UK are screaming then it will jump up yet again hence my 3-5 years post exit thoughts. Also the Euro may have collapsed by then Mean while the stockmarket will hit a huge low during the exit and will steadily improve while UK company's sort themselves out with the new trading regime.

But as you only look at user profile fed apple news you are only going to see a small part of the big picture that supports your views.
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Old 18th Aug 2017, 10:01
  #16235 (permalink)  
 
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The fall in the value of sterling since the Brexit has obviously really helped UK food exports

Salmon sales surge as UK food exports hit record high - BBC News

.....well, not really.

Sales up by 8.5%, when the value of sterling fell by 15% immediately after the referendum, and worse news, our food trade deficit widened still further. So in reality (in pounds and pence), export sales fell, and the effect of the exchange rate fall has been to increase even further cost of our imported food.

A sign of things to come.
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Old 18th Aug 2017, 10:24
  #16236 (permalink)  
 
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The higher the cost of imported food the better it is for UK producers.

And the more money that goes to UK producers the more money is kept in the economy.

When we are out then the huge food tariffs and restrictions to protect Eu producers will be gone. It not going to be as bigger issue as some may think for the UK. EU will have lost a huge market with tariffs and exchange rate pricing them out of it.
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Old 18th Aug 2017, 10:57
  #16237 (permalink)  
 
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Tesco app

Firstly it's a complete false picture to paint a deficit as a bad thing
The USA has always run a deficit as like us they are consumers and the deficit increases with a hot economy
They went into surplus in the recession
Imported goods lead to jobs and income too

The uk is predominately a sophisticated consumer society with only 20% of our economy in production

Your view is very simplistic and based on the intangible claims of all the trade we will do with the rest of the world while ignoring the negatives

Of that production cars are a big chunk and dependent on the EU markets
200,000 jobs at risk
3000 small Eu dependent businesses at risk and a incompetent government steering this ship to disaster

You brexiteers are like a man who used to be 13 stone who is down to 9 stone riddled with cancer but keep claiming it's only a cold and are in total denial of reality
It's almost like mass brainwashing ?

David Davis in a 2009 speech stated that " democracy is about the ability to change ones mind " it appears that democracy started and finished June 2016 with any dissenters slammed down as thwarting the will of the people ?
The way the opposition parties ran from such charges were equally like brainwashing
It's unbelievable the way things have gone since June 2016

Last edited by Pace; 18th Aug 2017 at 11:14.
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Old 18th Aug 2017, 11:12
  #16238 (permalink)  
 
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Of that production cars are a big chunk and dependent on the EU markets
200,000 jobs at risk
3000 small Eu dependent businesses at risk and a incompetent government steering this ship to disaster
We keep going through that with you Pace.

German med level merc E class used to be 35k made in germany

With the pound change its now 45K

With tariffs its going to be over 55K.

Even with tariffs UK produced cars are going to be cheaper than German produced cars in Germany from before Brexit started. The car makers will go with the profit.

The UK consumes more cars than it produces.

Your view is very simplistic and based on the intangible claims of all the trade we will do with the rest of the world while ignoring the negatives
No its your focused and determined that its going to go the same way as the not so independent says its going to go. As you have a hit rate of zero so far with your predictions via apple news of all things economic I am sticking with my personal thoughts on the subject which are taken from a spread of European sources from both extremes and my own personal feelings on the subject. Am I qualified no...... have I had success with my predictions, yes I have. Am I set up for a no deal exit yes I am.
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Old 18th Aug 2017, 13:56
  #16239 (permalink)  
 
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What of my predictions have been wrong ?
I certainly never agreed with the predictions made by project fear on
The basis of a vote when we were still fully in the single market and customs union
After brexit with no deal I am
Happy to make predictions so which of my predictions are wrong ?

Did I read you correctly that you are basing our future on a gutter valued pound ?
Sadly all that has happened there is inflation
We haven't even increased our world sales
Investment in the UK is already being directed into the EU block
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Old 18th Aug 2017, 14:10
  #16240 (permalink)  
 
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One good thing about leaving the EU and imported food prices going up:

Those that venture from their London restaurants and drive about the country cannot help but notice vast tracts of land that are just grass without a cow or sheep in sight.

This land has been 'set aside'. This is a whizz by the EU where they pay farmers NOT to cultivate land so as to keep the supply of produce down and the price up.

Why? So inefficient Continental farmers can get an economical price for their produce.

When we leave the EU our farmers will have a free hand so it will benefit us with lower home grown food prices.
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