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Meanwhile .. back in the Good 'ol NK ....

Jet Blast Topics that don't fit the other forums. Rules of Engagement apply.

Meanwhile .. back in the Good 'ol NK ....

Old 2nd May 2017, 16:41
  #1341 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Lonewolf_50 View Post
How familiar are you with TBMD engagement geometry? I am somewhat familiar with it, but I'm over a decade old in my understanding of how they have improved / grown. Your proposal overlooks some crunchy bits of how it all works.
Do you know which target (spot, wave top, drop of water) in the ocean the DPRK is aiming at? If you do, please advise ...
As I understand it there's no need to know a missile's target before the anti-missile can be launched. It is only necessary for radar to plot the trajectory and the AMM will acquire and track it.
Isn't that how they all work?
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Old 2nd May 2017, 18:55
  #1342 (permalink)  
 
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According to the DPRK the Yanks are already practising for a nuclear strike.

DPRK says U.S. conducts nuclear bomb dropping drill in South Korea - China Military
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Old 2nd May 2017, 19:17
  #1343 (permalink)  
 
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For the record, I have never bought the UnDPRK's line. They are the laughing stock of the world, along with some other D-List players.


Nevertheless, the USS Michigan is IN S, Korea at the moment and you got me thinking about reaction capabilities.
It is docked in a harbor - probably fairly shallow.
It did have to be guided/towed in by tugs.
A percentage of the crew is away on shore leave.
Don't know how quickly it could get underway and out of the harbor although, given the times, it is surely on some level of alert and has a plan or two.
Don't know how far to deep water.
They know AMMs are never 100% effective.
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Old 2nd May 2017, 19:37
  #1344 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Fareastdriver View Post
According to the DPRK the Yanks are already practising for a nuclear strike.

DPRK says U.S. conducts nuclear bomb dropping drill in South Korea - China Military
"On May 1, the U.S. imperialists committed one more military provocation of conducting a nuclear bomb dropping drill against the major objects of the DPRK in the sky over South Korea by bringing a formation of notorious nuclear strategic bomb B-1B in the wake of Key Resolve and Foal Eagle 17 joint military drills," said the Korean Central News Agency.
DPRK says U.S. conducts nuclear bomb dropping drill in South Korea - China Military

Have the North Koreans informed the Russians? The nuclear mission was eliminated from the B-1 some time ago.

The United States eliminated the nuclear mission for the B-1 in 1994. Even though the Air Force expended no further funding to maintain nuclear capabilities, the B-1 was still considered a heavy bomber equipped for nuclear armament until 2007. The conversion to conventional only began in November 2007 under the original START treaty and was completed in March 2011 under the New START treaty. To make that conversion possible, two steps were taken:
During the first step a metal cylindrical sleeve was welded into the aft attachment point of each set of B-1 pylon attachments. This prevented installing B-1 Air Launched Cruise Missile pylons.
During the second step two nuclear armament-unique cable connectors in each of the B-1 weapons bays were removed. This prevented the pre-arm signal from reaching the weapons.
B-1B Lancer > U.S. Air Force > Fact Sheet Display
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Old 2nd May 2017, 22:59
  #1345 (permalink)  
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Seems like the last NK missile was heading for Russia, thus the reason for its destruction. An error in computing the trajectory? - or a launch carried out mistakenly in fear, after shadows were spotted on radar??

Either way, I reckon there'll be some new job vacancies advertised shortly in the NK Daily Dribble, for missile launch technicians or scientists.

Failed MK missile was headed for Russia, Seoul Economy Daily reports
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Old 3rd May 2017, 02:07
  #1346 (permalink)  
 
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Opens up a number of questions for those who have some expertise in theater and long-range missile interception.

What kind of success rate is considered "good" for a theater defence? Certainly on a multi rocket/missile salvo I would think even the best of systems could get overwhelmed.

As far as long-range or intercontinental I thought the challenges are well nigh insurmountable at this time. This of course is not to say that the Norks have this capability nor that Western and other powers are not working full apace to parry it but it is not an easy issue to despatch. I thought that you had to get the real rockets in the launch or shortly thereafter phase. Plus, the amount of energy is staggering unless you hit it with another rocket.

I remember reading in The Economist a few years past about how the U.S. put their airborne [email protected] program to the back burner.

I am obviously not current on the latest intercept technologies (nor was I ever for that matter) but I had always thought it was a devil of a tough problem to solve...and one that cannot defend against salvos.

My point is in asking if there is a robust missile defence anywhere in the world that is being fielded by Western powers. Note that I did not say that what is out there is ineffective by any means, but rather that it is hard to defend against missiles.

Thoughts?
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Old 3rd May 2017, 14:30
  #1347 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Sallyann1234 View Post
As I understand it there's no need to know a missile's target before the anti-missile can be launched. It is only necessary for radar to plot the trajectory and the AMM will acquire and track it.
Isn't that how they all work?
No. That isn't how they all work (there are, for example, different problems to solve when trying to deal with a boost phase engagement, mid flight phase (generally too expensive to address) and terminal phase. As my remark seems to have gone past you on favorable engagement geometry, no worries, it's not all that important and I ought to put forth a second consideration: each time DPRK shoots something at the sea/ocean, the intel people get another look at what it is actually able to do versus the noise.

There is some merit in your initial offering, about engaging one successfully (terminal phase) be it with a sea based or land based battery, to demonstrate that the TBM can be countered. Part of the image/propaganda war. One of the thoughts that informed my initial answer was someone trying a boost phase intercept/engagement, though I am not sure if that project still gets funding. It has indeed been quite a few years since my last "up to date" status on that capability.


@G-CPTN: I can think (right off hand) of three ways that I'd try to neutralize/attack/try to sink that SSGN, were I on the opposing side, none of which involve any TBM's. I'll leave that as an exercise for the reader.


@Uncle Fred: You raise fair points, and the saturation method is one way to ensure that something gets through. The down side of using the saturation method, if you are firing TBMs, is that you reduce the number of targets you can service as nobody has infinite ammo IRL.


In a similar problem from the Cold War Maritime BG defense problem, Aegis and even later CEC were good at engaging multiple missiles, but if you got enough bears, backfires, and some SSGN's doing an "lets all launch at once" drill, or a time on target drill with a the various AS missiles, and the varios SS-N cruise missiles, you could reach the limit of what the BG can engage. (Hence the layered defense concept, etc).
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Old 3rd May 2017, 16:49
  #1348 (permalink)  
 
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But there is still the problem that as soon as DPRK uses nuclear weapons, the US has more than enough nukes to flatten the country. I doubt that the Trump would not do it, while if a nuke hit the US, I don't see that either the Congress or the public would accept anything else than a nuclear response - even if, unlikely as it would be, the president wanted anything else.

Now assuming the dinner plate hats brigade in Pyongyang haven't got a death wish, this pretty well limits them to a lot of posturing, but really not much else.

Japan found out their mistake in attacking Pearl Harbor, although it took some years. It wouldn't take anywhere near that long to fix the DPRK loonies.
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Old 4th May 2017, 08:51
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I trust that someone will have calculated the possible effects of radiation clouds on the nearby residents of SK and China.
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Old 4th May 2017, 12:28
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Just following up on the 'deliberate' explosion in mid-air theory for a moment, the NKs are known to have been experimenting with plug'n play sarin containers to fit the nose cones of their missiles.
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Old 4th May 2017, 15:17
  #1351 (permalink)  
 
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Expensive way of delivering sarin compared with FedEx.
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Old 5th May 2017, 02:49
  #1352 (permalink)  
 
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Good explanation Lonewolf. Thank you.
I have to sheepishly admit that I did not consider that salvos deplete the quiver rather quickly.
Ah the eternal offence versus defence struggle.

Not to introduce raw politics into the situation but this was sent to me today. Apparently Trump might have soiled his messkit with the South Koreans: Trump Normalized but Still Scary on Foreign Policy | National Review

Walking this back might be a bit hard.
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Old 5th May 2017, 09:00
  #1353 (permalink)  
 
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China's main fear is a unified Korea putting US military right on their border.

A real good move would be for Trump to persuade the Chinese to help remove Fatty, allow reunification but give a cast iron commitment that US forces would remain where they currently are.

This would be a win/win China could find plenty of opportunity in the reconstruction of the North and increased trade with the new Korea.
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Old 5th May 2017, 10:04
  #1354 (permalink)  
 
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N Korea claims CIA plot to kill Kim Jong-un - BBC News

Funny that, bullies often accuse their victims of the behaviour they themselves are guilty of.
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Old 5th May 2017, 12:36
  #1355 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Super VC-10 View Post
N Korea claims CIA plot to kill Kim Jong-un - BBC News

Funny that, bullies often accuse their victims of the behaviour they themselves are guilty of.
Having read the article, why don't they say they have already poisoned him and let him sweat it out for 6/12months.
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Old 5th May 2017, 13:22
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He obviously reads PPRuNe.
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Old 5th May 2017, 13:41
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They killed the wrong Kim . . .

(Kim Jong-nam)
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Old 5th May 2017, 14:40
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And that's how conspiracy theories are born...
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Old 5th May 2017, 14:47
  #1359 (permalink)  
 
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https://www.google.com/amp/www.cbsne...lear-standoff/

The desperation is rising to bite the hand that feeds you, either that or the strengthened ties with Vlad are encouraging the Fatwun to reorient.
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Old 5th May 2017, 16:18
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We could always try talking to him.
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