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Meanwhile .. back in the Good 'ol NK ....

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Meanwhile .. back in the Good 'ol NK ....

Old 12th Jun 2018, 06:29
  #2381 (permalink)  
 
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Trump is profoundly unsynchronized. It will take a lot more than 5 days rest to re-synchronize him...

Also I'm curious to know if Kim has his nuclear "football" with him in Singapore to match Trump's albeit larger football?
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Old 12th Jun 2018, 06:36
  #2382 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Octane View Post
Also I'm curious to know if Kim has his nuclear "football" with him in Singapore to match Trump's albeit larger football?
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Old 12th Jun 2018, 08:02
  #2383 (permalink)  
 
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Anyone else a bit underwhelmed by what seems to have been agreed?

The one positive thing seems to be that NK seems to have a wish to engage with the US, SK, etc, but that was the case before this meeting. It seems that the big goal of getting NK to agree to unilateral nuclear disarmament has been kicked into the long grass.

Given the doubts about what the NK capability really is, I suspect that they are a long way from having engineered a missile warhead. Add in that they don't seem to have any nuclear test capability now, and almost certainly don't have enough data to produce a mathematical model that would allow an accurate simulation, I doubt they are a realistic nuclear power, although I can understand that it suits Kim to portray that they are, if only to maintain face with his own people.

I wonder if anything will really change as a result of this meeting? I reckon the main achievement was defusing tension between NK and the US/SK, and in reality that happened before this meeting, anyway.
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Old 12th Jun 2018, 08:28
  #2384 (permalink)  
 
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Underwhelmed...really? Less than a year ago we were facing a binary choice between school kids having to carry out nuclear attack drills or full-scale war, both options guaranteeing unending poverty and misery for North Korea. By contrast now, lasting peace and prosperity for NK is now a strong possibility.
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Old 12th Jun 2018, 08:34
  #2385 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by ShotOne View Post
Underwhelmed...really? Less than a year ago we were facing a binary choice between school kids having to carry out nuclear attack drills or full-scale war, both options guaranteeing unending poverty and misery for North Korea. By contrast now, lasting peace and prosperity for NK is now a strong possibility.
But that was the case before this meeting - Kim had already done an about-turn and started making overtures to SK and the US a couple of months ago.

Nothing much seems to have been achieved yesterday, in real terms. Kim still has his nukes (supposedly), NK is still a closed, authoritarian regime, and the state of war still exists, although there are hints that a peace treaty might be agreed.

Frankly it looks more like a publicity stunt, orchestrated largely by Kim, probably because earlier this year he found himself between a rock and a hard place, and needed a way out whilst saving face.
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Old 12th Jun 2018, 08:36
  #2386 (permalink)  
 
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A possibility.

Watching the press conference now. Hard to stay enthused or anti-depressed isn't it?
Let's see who can walk the walk after all this talk the talk and let's never forget track records.

Someone should tell Trump that it wasn't only US troops fighting the war.
He forgot:
Republic of South KoreaAustralia Belgium Canada Colombia Ethiopia France Greece Luxembourg Netherlands New Zealand Philippines South Africa Thailand Turkey United Kingdom Denmark Italy Norway SwedenIndia
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Old 12th Jun 2018, 10:20
  #2387 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by ShotOne View Post
Underwhelmed...really? Less than a year ago we were facing a binary choice between school kids having to carry out nuclear attack drills or full-scale war, both options guaranteeing unending poverty and misery for North Korea. By contrast now, lasting peace and prosperity for NK is now a strong possibility.
Underwhelmed because this agreement looks very much like the one Clinton signed in '93.
Wait and see.
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Old 12th Jun 2018, 11:26
  #2388 (permalink)  
 
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Underwhelmed because this agreement looks very much like the one Clinton signed in '93.
Wait and see.
but it was necessary

if things go tits up later on we can say we tried to avoid

so what really counts is future responses either up or down (the world awaits)
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Old 12th Jun 2018, 12:31
  #2389 (permalink)  
 
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Underwhelmed? Just what expectations did you have on a first date? These are complicated talks that have to start with a meet and greet, now the hard work starts at below the executive level.

Sure you're not so anti Trump that you pre determined the meeting as a failure before it started? You seem to be on all other topics Trump
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Old 12th Jun 2018, 12:42
  #2390 (permalink)  
 
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t least the Fat Wun, with his visits to China and Singapore can see what an Asian economy can be like without his hereditary form of government.
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Old 12th Jun 2018, 13:05
  #2391 (permalink)  
 
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Let's give Mr Trump some time to get back on his way to the USA. Then we can start the clock, timing how long it will be before Trump starts tweeting his alternative version of what happened.
Meanwhile, the way I read events so far, I would score this 1-0 to Kim Jong Un. He started the ball rolling on this, although one has to concede Trump has done the better job of managing the news. Time will tell.
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Old 12th Jun 2018, 15:04
  #2392 (permalink)  
 
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“Kim... found himself between a rock and a hard place..”. Yes. Both placed by President Trump. Having been allowed to do exactly what he wanted by the West but specifically Obama, Bush (both of them) and Clinton.
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Old 12th Jun 2018, 16:25
  #2393 (permalink)  
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I thought the summit was successful based on early reports. The parties met and parted congenially, and all seemed optimistic about coming negotiations and arrangements. To those who have arrows to sling, I would only ask: What would have pleased you?
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Old 12th Jun 2018, 17:20
  #2394 (permalink)  
 
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Surprised that it has not been commented on that Mr. Trump announced the suspension of joint US/SK miltary exercises. Calling his own country's exercises "provocative" seems to be a beginner's mistake on the stage of diplomacy.

I would think this would be, in Trump's parlance, huge. What did he garner in return? just curious as I have not seen anything. Please don't tell me Kim walked away that easily.

Frankly though with NK the choices are never good. Just less bad I guess.

Interesting that NK news covered this event as it was happening vice when he returned. He is definately looking to display his chops with the home crowd.

I wonder what the specific goals are now that an icebreaker has been held. Who knows?
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Old 12th Jun 2018, 17:48
  #2395 (permalink)  
 
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So now we sit back and watch, who breaks the agreement first.

Trump gave an easy one by standing down the show in South Korea (for the time being)

it's up to Kim to give an equal show in return

Meanwhile Kim has the problem of verification, while in Trumps case it's overt

meanwhile the blockades stay in place

Is it time to nominate Trump as man of the year or should we wait for support from the G 6-7 or 8 sides?

The biggest loser is Trudeau as he doesn't count any longer outside his home state (nice guy but very bad timing)
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Old 12th Jun 2018, 17:55
  #2396 (permalink)  
 
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It annoys me that this chit-chat is viewed as.........who is winner, who is loser....?

Might is right.
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Old 12th Jun 2018, 18:35
  #2397 (permalink)  
 
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There are a few uncertainties with regard to NK, that seem to be taken as if they were proven fact by the media.

The first is, "Is NK really a viable nuclear power?". All the evidence we have suggests they are part way there, but are a long way from actually having deployable missiles equipped with reliable warheads. The evidence from their test programme seems to show that they have partially developed a physically large Teller-Ulam device, of modest yield, with some uncertainty as to whether the second stage really operated. To put that in perspective, it looks as if NK is around the same level of technical capability as the US had in the mid 1950's.

Next, we need to consider if NK was in a position to continue their development programme, to the point where they could pose a realistic nuclear threat to other states. All the evidence we have strongly suggests that their only nuclear test site was effectively disabled, and probably destroyed, as a consequence of the landslides that resulted from their last test. They don't seem to have either the real estate, or the funds, to build a new test site. That strongly suggests that their nuclear weapon programme had effectively been put back years, when they realised to full extent of the damage earlier this year. Interestingly this coincided with the about-turn by Kim with regard to NK's relationship with the rest of the world, and particularly SK and the US.

It's clear that Kim has been in the driving seat and making the initial overtures that led first to the meeting with President Moon in the DMZ, and then to the dialogue with the US that, after a rocky start, resulted in this recent meeting.

So what does Kim REALLY want? My best guess is that he wants some breathing space to build up the resources needed for whatever he has planned, and that means trade and maintaining face within NK. He may well style himself as Supreme Leader, but he buys the loyalty of those that maintain his position, and needs to ensure that NK can at least avoid another major famine, and ideally provide some improvements in the standard of living. This meeting has surely given Kim a tremendous boost within NK. He's portrayed as the leader that has made the President of the US fly half way around the world to meet with him, and I'm damned certain that will enhance his standing within NK, notwithstanding his ability to rule by fear (something I'm not convinced is sustainable in the long term).

Sure this meeting has helped to lessen tensions, but most importantly I suspect that it has caused China to resume trade with NK via the backdoor, to a greater extent than they were doing already. China doesn't want a potential nuclear threat on their border, and I'm damned certain they have been working away in the background to steer things the way they have gone, without seeming to be doing so in public.

I'm not by any means decrying the importance of damping down tensions on the Korean peninsula, but we've been here before a couple of times, so it remains to be seen how things pan out in the longer term. I suspect that the main outcome from this meeting will be to reinforce Kim's position as Supreme Leader, and that may well have been his primary objective.

Last edited by VP959; 12th Jun 2018 at 20:11. Reason: typo
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Old 12th Jun 2018, 19:00
  #2398 (permalink)  
 
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So how much "aid" will the USA provide NK with in the future?
Clever guy this Kim. Pose a threat, real or otherwise, hook, line and sinker.
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Old 12th Jun 2018, 19:02
  #2399 (permalink)  
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Don't underestimate Trump. I think the political pundits have yet to twig that Trump is not a politician.

If the time lag for Trump was 12 hours just think latterally. Talks beginning at 0930L are no different than talks starting at 2100. Indeed that might play to his advantage. Also zone hopping in AF1 is a little different from sitting even in Business Class.
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Old 12th Jun 2018, 19:06
  #2400 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by lomapaseo View Post
So now we sit back and watch, who breaks the agreement first.

Trump gave an easy one by standing down the show in South Korea (for the time being)

it's up to Kim to give an equal show in return

Meanwhile Kim has the problem of verification, while in Trumps case it's overt

meanwhile the blockades stay in place

Is it time to nominate Trump as man of the year or should we wait for support from the G 6-7 or 8 sides?

The biggest loser is Trudeau as he doesn't count any longer outside his home state (nice guy but very bad timing)
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