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Meanwhile .. back in the Good 'ol NK ....

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Meanwhile .. back in the Good 'ol NK ....

Old 23rd May 2018, 06:02
  #2301 (permalink)  
 
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West

To a certain extent yes. I do not pretend that my outline is the revelation of anything unique or novel and that no one has thought this through before.

Yet I would say that over the span of history this process is what most often works. Almost as immutable a reality such as gravity. This is not to say that the process has always suceeded and that is where the economic and military aspects of the DIME model might be employed--here I think of further sanctions or kinetic ops.

What I am saying is that I think Mr. Trump's inclination to act as if force of personality and/or disruption of the status quo for its own sake will open new vistas and opportunities is the wrong way to go about it.

I will gladly admit to being wrong should I be proven so, but this is complicated stuff and I think Trump is way too dismissive of both the process and the bench stength that used to be on hand.

Granted there are undoubtedly fleets of "advisors" who have collected good pay and benefits over the years pontificating on this topic and I understand Trump's frustration with this unmoving morass of hangers-on. He just needs to be aware that shoveling out this sledge is only one part of the equation. I just don't know if he is sharp enough to intuit the other parts.
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Old 24th May 2018, 03:21
  #2302 (permalink)  
 
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To show how complicated this is, we now have Pence playing the role of the heavy and Mr. Trump vouchsafing, even promising, Kims position should he cough up the goods.

https://www.newyorker.com/news/news-desk/the-new-iffiness-of-trumps-north-korea-diplomacy

I am confused as to how a U.S. president can guarantee that a dictator will be protected, so to speak, in his place. What if the people rise up? What if there is a coup?

Is Mr. Trump saying that should Kim de-nuclearize that the U.S. will ensure that no harm comes to him?

Should that promise be made? Can it legitimately be made? Is it smart to make?

Tough situation.
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Old 24th May 2018, 05:18
  #2303 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Uncle Fred View Post
West

To a certain extent yes. I do not pretend that my outline is the revelation of anything unique or novel and that no one has thought this through before.

Yet I would say that over the span of history this process is what most often works. Almost as immutable a reality such as gravity. This is not to say that the process has always suceeded and that is where the economic and military aspects of the DIME model might be employed--here I think of further sanctions or kinetic ops.

What I am saying is that I think Mr. Trump's inclination to act as if force of personality and/or disruption of the status quo for its own sake will open new vistas and opportunities is the wrong way to go about it.

I will gladly admit to being wrong should I be proven so, but this is complicated stuff and I think Trump is way too dismissive of both the process and the bench stength that used to be on hand.

Granted there are undoubtedly fleets of "advisors" who have collected good pay and benefits over the years pontificating on this topic and I understand Trump's frustration with this unmoving morass of hangers-on. He just needs to be aware that shoveling out this sledge is only one part of the equation. I just don't know if he is sharp enough to intuit the other parts.
ok, fair enough. How successful has this conventional wisdom been to date with the Norks?
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Old 24th May 2018, 09:37
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Is Mr. Trump saying that should Kim de-nuclearize that the U.S. will ensure that no harm comes to him?
Just like in Libya? That might be a tough sell, but who knows, maybe that's what Mr. Kim needs. Some 'tough' selling. Trump says he's the best at that.

Again, that iterative process.
Yes, international relations is highly iterative. This is something we know and rarely can we go from A to Z in short order, and our agreements often get by on just trust (but verify) for a while.

Uncle Fred, your other good quote given, on the slog of diplomacy is well placed. I can only add the slow burn is most often due to domestic concerned, for it takes time to align (placate, nullify) impediments on the home shores before the new bridges can be built.
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Old 24th May 2018, 14:54
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What happens if Kim asks "Why should I trust the US? The Iranians did and you have walked away from the deal. How do I know you won't do the same with me?"

What will Donald's answer be?
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Old 24th May 2018, 15:48
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It's all off!

Trump cancels Kim summit amid North Korea 'hostility' - BBC News
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Old 24th May 2018, 17:25
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What happens if he walks out?
Better question, What happens if he doesn't walk in? I never thought there would be a meeting, it was all a bluff. Wasn't there a song by Elvis "Only Fools Rush In"? Can be applied to different topics besides love such as meetings.

Last edited by Turbine D; 24th May 2018 at 17:25. Reason: word correction
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Old 24th May 2018, 17:27
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Best to keep them guessing, just as Kim did with previous presidents.

IG
 
Old 24th May 2018, 17:30
  #2309 (permalink)  
 
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We are simply back to square one

The penalties are still in place, the rhetoric is the same disfunctional family insults, but at least they have a cheerful relationship while sitting on their thrones

The horses are not racing today they are back in their barns
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Old 24th May 2018, 20:43
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Horses? As with most things Trump, this is a Goat Rodeo.

https://www.urbandictionary.com/defi...m=Goat%20Rodeo
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Old 24th May 2018, 21:06
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“We are simply back to square one”

From the US perspective that may be the case.

I suspect Trump had little intention of permitting this to go ahead.

Returning to the status quo simply means returning to US control over the peninsula. Crank up the rhetoric when required, turn it down when the South (and Japan) comply.

Troops, missile defense, China.

However, the perspective from South Korea will be vastly different and how they react is going to be interesting.
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Old 24th May 2018, 22:34
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It occurs to me that there is nothing stopping the South and the North having their own talks with nobody else present, if they have a mind to. ( I am pretty sure this has happened before, but I would need to dig up some old notes ...)
Maybe that is what comes out of this. More local bilateral work.
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Old 24th May 2018, 23:47
  #2313 (permalink)  
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As with most things Trump, this is a Goat Rodeo.
There's an 11 letter word to describe the situation which I might use.

First 7 letters 'cluster', last letter 'k'.
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Old 24th May 2018, 23:59
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It occurs to me that there is nothing stopping the South and the North having their own talks with nobody else present, if they have a mind to.
President Moon has certainly been doing his part, and Kim has been going along thus far.

For those interested in some of the finest diplomatic prose ever written:

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Old 25th May 2018, 00:01
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Is this a genuine document?
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Old 25th May 2018, 00:49
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Tis, Oicur12.again.
Right from the horse's ass mouth.

Letter to Chairman Kim Jong Un - White House.GOV
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Old 25th May 2018, 01:08
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How could something so sophomoric (an American term I quite like I must admit) come from the pen of anyone else? Talleyrand he is not...
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Old 25th May 2018, 01:11
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Well VAP it is true that Trump's letter is clear, precise, and to the point. Unadorned with pseudointellectual and diplomatic bullsh1te.

Refreshing, for a change. The fat one should be in no doubt where Trump stands.
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Old 25th May 2018, 01:25
  #2319 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by vapilot2004 View Post
Tis, Oicur12.again.
Right from the horse's ass mouth.

Letter to Chairman Kim Jong Un - White House.GOV
Or horses twitter account, which amounts to the same thing (on both counts)



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Old 25th May 2018, 01:42
  #2320 (permalink)  
 
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Awkward much


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