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Italian scientists convicted

Old 23rd Oct 2012, 01:13
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TWT
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Italian scientists convicted

Italian scientists convicted over earthquake warning | Reuters

Italian scientists convicted and sentenced for six years for failing to give adequate warning of earthquake.As ExSpeedbird would say 'The world's gone mad'
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Old 23rd Oct 2012, 01:19
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Pathetic!

The Italian legal system has been laughable for the last hundred years (if you aren't caught up in it).

These foreigners aren't steady. Look at the story of Jim Clark, Lotus and that Monza crash to realize we are lucky to deal with those old Oxbridge dunderheads.

God knows what happened to the Romans (and the Greeks)!

Caco

Last edited by Cacophonix; 23rd Oct 2012 at 01:23.
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Old 23rd Oct 2012, 01:25
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The mind boggles !


Maybe that is why the US are always issuing warnings for LA and SF !!!

Last edited by 500N; 23rd Oct 2012 at 01:26.
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Old 23rd Oct 2012, 02:56
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Just insane. It shows that the ego is bigger than the truth. The notion that someone has to pay is criminal in itself.

Do the citizens actually drink the Koolaid?
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Old 23rd Oct 2012, 03:43
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Fair enough too.

The din of "scientists" hindcasting earthquakes, and telling us any and every last little and large thing about them, has now - after 10,000 shocks and aftershocks in Christchurch - faded to white noise.

If they knew a tenth of a tenth of one percent of what they claim to know about the damn things, they should have been able to tell us September and February were going to happen before they did.

Put up, shut up, or get banged up.
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Old 23rd Oct 2012, 03:51
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Wow.

No one suspects the Spanish, er, Italian Inquisition...

edited to add: I respect those who lived through some hellish experiences related to this, but to my very limited knowledge of the field, predicting such to any degree of accuracy isn't possible.


Would crying "boo!" and being wrong 100 times before getting it right be a better method?

Last edited by brickhistory; 23rd Oct 2012 at 03:53.
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Old 23rd Oct 2012, 04:20
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Cacophonix says:
The Italian legal system has been laughable for the last hundred years (if you aren't caught up in it).
More like 2400 years, and beyond, are clearly on the insanity clock, with consistent threads of idiocy-entwined-with-ideology running most of the way thru in a characteristically Italiante manner, style, and form.

One gang might call the phenomenon: Revenge of the Etruscans Nother team might call it Revenge of the Greeks.

Likelier yet is that Pleistocene-survivor hill folk crept in from all sides and fogged the gene-pool in pre-Romulan times and on forward, using molto alluring damsels as bait, with all we have now in ideological hash (aka Western Culture) as the semi-idiotic consequential segue of their nouveau-Neanderthal philosophies.
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Old 23rd Oct 2012, 04:52
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In truth I don't believe they should have been jailed, but I do think it's a fair point. We are over-run by experts who would have us believe they know everything after the fact, which gets up the nasal passages of people who are sick to bloody death of earthquakes.

There's a bloke here by the name of Ken Ring (weather man who forecasts by the moon, worth a Google if you have a few spare minutes) who did a bit of moon-based earthquake predicting and got eerily close on a few occasions. Naturally he was roundly denounced as a quack, crook, charlatan, etc. He's a pretty good weather forecaster, if there is such a thing.

As far as predictions go, I believe the Japs have a system based on satellite radar which measures ground stretch in real-time, and can give up to about 90 seconds warning of a quake.

More fascinating are the reports from more than a few ham radio operators over the years (also worth a Google) which suggest that anything up to several days forewarning of major seismic shifts may be signalled by weird goings-on in the radio spectrum.

I have wondered whether earthquake lightning - a known phenomenon associated with earthquakes and volcanic activity - may be linked in some way to any such radio interference.
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Old 23rd Oct 2012, 05:22
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The problem is that there are tell-tales after the fact; but the tell-tales can't be used for forecasting as they frequently happen without the large earthquake.

So a large number of small earthquakes could mean that a large one is coming ... and about 1 time in 50 you would be right. But 49 times out of 50 you won't be. And you can only cry wolf once in a while before people start ignoring you anyway.

Ken Ring gets it right pretty much every time though. Generally as the error margin that he gives on his model is two weeks on either side of full or new moon. Pretty easy to be 100% correct under those conditions.

The simple fact is that our understanding of earthquakes is limited. We can understand what happens after they occur; but we can't yet use that understanding to predict when they will occur. And putting scientists into gaol is really not going to help.

It will be interesting if this sets a precedent in the future. I can imagine that the Italian Met Office is going to be worried about their liability in, say, a plane crash caused by a microburst (sorry to bring it back to aviation).
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Old 23rd Oct 2012, 06:20
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Originally Posted by Cacophonix View Post
God knows what happened to the Romans (and the Greeks)!
It is well recognised that the peoples who made these countries great were dispersed and diluted by various invasions and mass migration.
The current inhabitants of these countries have very little, or nothing, in common with the civilisations that founded them millennia ago.

If anyone is to be jailed, it should be "Christs vicar on earth" and the entire clergy. After all, it was an act of God!
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Old 23rd Oct 2012, 06:50
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Working on the Italian basis...

" It is now my duty to pass sentence. You, Michael Fish, will be taken from here to a place of lawful execution".....
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Old 23rd Oct 2012, 09:21
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Can I suggest you all read this essay on the subject by Dr. Roger Pielke Jr. It explains the rationale behind the case.

It would appear that one of the things they wanted to achieve was the slapping down of an amateur who dared to forecast an earthquake.
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Old 23rd Oct 2012, 09:35
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Well, gg - the thing I understood is that people want to know for sure and that's not possible.
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Old 23rd Oct 2012, 09:43
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I hope they jail scientists that peddle the Global Warming myth next.
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Old 23rd Oct 2012, 09:48
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I think the 'man on the Clapham Omnibus' is well aware that earthquakes cannot be accurately predicted in size or timing.
The same is probably true of the 'Chianti Omnibus'.

Follow the money - Wouldn't be at all surprised that an investigation of Building Standards people would lead to questions about building contracts, and we all know where that leads to, and not just in Italy.

Montreal ex-official admits to years of lavish bribes - Montreal - CBC News
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Old 23rd Oct 2012, 15:49
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In principle, there can be nothing wrong with holding public sector employees accountable for their actions (or inactivity). Everyone in the private sector has to live with the financial consequences that their decisions invoke.
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Old 23rd Oct 2012, 16:15
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Everyone in the private sector has to live with the financial consequences that their decisions invoke.
Even cruise-ship captains?
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Old 23rd Oct 2012, 16:34
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Look at the story of Jim Clark, Lotus and that Monza crash
Truly convoluted as Jim Clark died in Germany
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Old 23rd Oct 2012, 17:05
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" Truly convoluted as Jim Clark died in Germany "

I think Caco meant Jochen Rindt, Monza , 1970. Chapman was charged with manslaughter, even though the improperly installed armco effectively killed him.

So were some of Williams crew after Senna's death at Imola.

Last edited by TZ350; 23rd Oct 2012 at 17:18.
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