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EU Politics - Hamsterwheel

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EU Politics - Hamsterwheel

Old 1st Jan 2012, 08:38
  #481 (permalink)  
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Fireworks as an indicator of wealth

For the past few years the firework displays by private houses in our mountainside community here in Spain have been growing less and less. "Damp squib" comes to mind.

I took a walk out last night and the fireworks started at 00:00 and ended at 00:35, the largest displays I've seen in years, about four houses doing big ones, lots of smaller ones, and Pasko's restaurant down the bottom as well.

This urbanisation is a mixture of French, Dutch, German and British property owners, so I can't tell you was doing what, but someone has money to burn. Or are they getting rid of euros ?
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Old 1st Jan 2012, 09:19
  #482 (permalink)  
 
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Firework sales were up by at least 25% here, OFSO, mainly since people have decided to have celebrations at home instead of going to bars and organised parties due to the cost (like bars charging up to €60 just to get in!!!!), and it is no lie going by the number of the things firing off all around us last night, far more than in previous years.

People adapt to the "crisis" in different ways, they brought New Year "home" this time and celebrated in style in the comfort of their own homes instead of being stuck in a crowded bar, struggling to get served and spending an arm, leg and left bollock for the "privilege".
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Old 1st Jan 2012, 09:26
  #483 (permalink)  
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Interesting comment, hellsbrink, think you may be right. Here in Spain where you can still get a decent three course lunch (with wine) in a restaurant for €15 Monday to Friday, New Year's Eve prices rise to €80 and higher per person, I have always thought it's insane to pay so much. Two years ago we had a splendidly unforgettable and uproarious evening/morning on NYE but it cost us €280 for two and one can't afford that sort of thing every year.

Ah well, now off to church and then down to Roses harbour at midday to see the annual custom of roping a Frenchman 50' behind a Sunseeker and towing him round the Bay at 30 knots to see if he floats or sinks (usual way of predicting whether it's going to be a good year for tourism).
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Old 1st Jan 2012, 13:13
  #484 (permalink)  
 
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KAG,

As an adherent to all things EU and the belief that the EU is infallible, what do you think of the EU-ETS ?
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Old 1st Jan 2012, 18:55
  #485 (permalink)  
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Stuckgear:
infallible
In 2012 you still have the same habit: make me talk through your mouth (keyboard?), and make me say what I haven't.
A bit like Capetonian' style, in his last post for example: "But of course, there's nothing wrong with the Euro."
Nobody says that, maybe some fool somewhere, but the vast majority of people including me affirm there is something wrong, a crisis even.
That's not a discussion if you already know what thinks who you are talking to. It's called monolog.

I don't think the EU is infallible Stuckgear. But that's not a reason why I want to see it dying like you do (nor I expect it to die anytime soon).


You ask me about ETS? What do I know? I wouldn't even know we are in a global warming process if nobody told me so.
If we have a pollution/global warming/climate change problem, yes I expect our leaders to do something about it. I don't think that's an easy task though, and personnaly I don't know how to do. I think that as a B737 pilot I am more part of the problem than the solution?

In France one of our "expert" (he saw the subprime crisis coming before his little friends apparently) said this year that Euro wouldn't survive in its present form in 2011.
We are in 2012, so he's just received a kind of "idiot" award: Coulisses de Bruxelles


Do you have time to post there? http://www.pprune.org/interviews-job...2f-misery.html
I see a real problem concerning our industry.
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Old 1st Jan 2012, 23:03
  #486 (permalink)  
 
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Dinner for One, or Euro for no-one : 2011 version with Merkozy

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Old 2nd Jan 2012, 07:38
  #487 (permalink)  
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Der Spiegel: Delusions of the Euro Zone

The Lies that Europe's Politicians Tell Themselves
Winning Time
The Mistakes of the Past
The Principle of Hope
Political Delusions


Part 2: A Bailout Based on an Illusion

A Bailout Based on an Illusion
Learning a Bitter Lesson
Bottomless Pit
Inevitable Shrinkage


.......In the end, the currency union will shrink. Greece and possibly even other countries will have to abandon the euro in order to be able to get back on their feet with the help of their own, significantly devalued, currency.

The euro saviors and their citizens must finally face the uncomfortable truth. Under current conditions, the euro will fail economically because the differences between euro-zone countries are too great.

But new conditions that would give the euro a firm economic foundation are almost impossible to implement due to political factors. In any case, they can definitely not be put in place quickly enough to combat the current crisis.

Indeed, the would-be euro saviors are suffering from yet another delusion: that they are able to buy all the time they need, without any limits.
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Old 2nd Jan 2012, 08:29
  #488 (permalink)  
 
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KAG,

Thank you for the response.
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Old 2nd Jan 2012, 13:57
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Eurozone collapse 'starts this year' says CEBR - Telegraph

As the troubled euro marked its 10th anniversary this weekend, the Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR) said there was a 99pc chance that the currency would not survive the next 10 years.

"It now looks as though 2012 will be the year when the euro starts to break up," the CEBR said.

The think tank added that Britain could well be in recession already, with growth likely to contract in the final quarter of 2011 and the first quarter of 2012.

But, it suggested that conditions could improve later in the year as inflation falls and the squeeze on real incomes eases.

"It is not a done deal yet – we are only forecasting a 60pc probability – but our forecast is that by the end of the year at least one country (and probably more) will leave", said Douglas McWilliams, the CEBR's chief executive.
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Old 2nd Jan 2012, 15:36
  #490 (permalink)  
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Stuckgear: welcome.


President Traian Basescu on Wednesday maintained that the euro area was not going to collapse, adding that Romania kept its accession target in 2015 and that joining the euro area could increase Romania's exports.



"I am one of the politicians you have not heard talking about the euro area collapse (...) I do not believe that the euro area could collapse. 2015 is a target for joining the euro area [for Romania]. And I want you to know I speak in all responsibility as a member of the European Council. I believe as irresponsible the statements of some European commissioners concerning the euro collapse on or after the date of December 9 if we did not take the necessary measures and I think that they contributed to the increase in interest rates for the EU countries," the Romanian Head of State told RRA.

He stressed that it was in Romania's interest to be in the euro area, as this way the exports would increase. "I can tell you I have attended the meeting with the exporters on Monday. The message was a very strong one there. Exports would increase enormously if we were in the euro area. So it is in our national interest to be in the euro area, not to let exports depend on the fluctuations of the national currency and have the entire Romanian economy in a very stable environment," Basescu said.

In context, he mentioned the importance of the intergovernmental agreement on economic union, saying that the adhesion to this agreement was voluntary and the states outside the euro area could join it partially, on certain articles.
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Old 2nd Jan 2012, 16:34
  #491 (permalink)  
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Well, he would say that, wouldn't he?
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Old 2nd Jan 2012, 16:39
  #492 (permalink)  
 
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Romania is one of the basket case economies that would benefit from joining the Euro. Its accession would further weaken the currency, but that would be of no concern to those who would benefit.

I would imagine that Moldavia and Albania would also like to join it and derive the benefits.
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Old 2nd Jan 2012, 17:12
  #493 (permalink)  
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Weren't we all meant to be speaking Esperanto by now?
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Old 2nd Jan 2012, 22:09
  #494 (permalink)  
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Ambrose Evans-Pritchard: 2012 could be the year Germany lets the euro die

So we enter Year IV of the Long Slump, the cruellest yet though not the most acute.

There will be no Chinese credit explosion this time, no real help from post-bubble India or over-stretched Brazil. It will be a global downturn on all fronts, aborting what remains of recovery even before industrial output in the OECD bloc has regained its pre-Lehman peak. The second wave will hit with youth unemployment already at 45pc in Greece and 49pc in Spain; and with the US labour participation rate already at depression levels of 64pc. We will hear more about Italy's Red Brigades, Greece's Sect of Revolutionaries, and America's militia groups, and how democracies respond. Proto-fascism in Hungary is our warning. China's surgical soft-landing will slip control, like Fed tightening in 1929 and 2007, or Japan's squeeze in 1990. Once construction has run amok, bears will have their way.

Since the purpose of New Year predictions is to stick one's neck out, let me hazard that China will devalue the yuan in 2012. It will export yet more spare capacity into a deflationary world, until the West retaliates and starts to turn its back on globalisation. Capital outflows will accelerate. The idea that China can rescue anybody will seem quaint. The strong yen has already pushed Japan back into deflation, and fresh recession. Public debt has reached one quadrillion yen, as noted acidly by Tokyo's R&I rating agency when it stripped Japan of its AAA rating last month. That is $12.8 trillion, or Italy plus Spain times four. There is a graveyard full of Gaijin commentators who wrote off Japan too soon. Will the dam break this year at last, with tax covering less than half of spending, public debt at 237pc of GDP, ever fewer workers, and a state pension fund now selling government bonds? Perhaps. As R&I warns, Europe's woes have brought sovereign debt into very sharp focus.

America will look resilient for a few months. The payroll tax deal has averted a fiscal shock, but that is all. Money growth (M3) has sputtered out, and velocity is falling. Politics on Capitol Hill will restrain Ben Bernanke from launching QE3 until the Tea Party can see the eye-whites of deflation. Six-month PCE inflation was 2.9pc in August, 2.4pc in September, 1.6pc in October, and 1.2pc in November. Not there yet. Prepare for a Wall Street squall first. Whether the scare of early 2012 turns seriously ugly depends on the nerve of policy-makers. Shock absorbers are worn thin, but not exhausted. Central banks have the means to prevent a 1930s outcome, even with rates at zero, if willing to deploy Fisher-Friedman monetary stimulus with conviction, buying assets from non-banks and targeting nominal GDP growth of 5pc. But policy defeatism is in the air, and Austro-liquidationists are winning the popular debate.

The second leg of our Kondratieff Winter comes at an awful moment for Euroland, just as the North-South split turns deadly. The European Central Bank has guaranteed trouble by letting M3 money contract. Fiscal tightening into the downward slide will make matters worse. A credit crunch as banks shrink loan books by €1 trillion to meet capital ratios will do the rest. All policy levers are set on deep recession, and deep recession is what Europe will get. Monetary union is too damaged to parry these blows. The ECB's Mario Draghi will cut interest rates to 0.5pc by February, just to keep pace with passive tightening. Half-hearted purchases of Italian and Spanish bonds will drift on, doing more harm than good. By reducing existing bond-holders to junior status, the ECB will ensure a slow exodus. Draghi knows this. His hands are tied.

The Bundesbank will wage guerrilla war against money printing through the pages of Die Welt and Handelsblatt, paralyzing the ECB's Council until Angela Merkel orders Jens Weidmann to desist. By then it will be too late, deliberately so. Contraction will play havoc with budgets in Italy, Spain, Portugal, and France. Austerity alone will seem a Sisyphean task. Club Med leaders will not be able to command popular assent for such 1930s scorched-earth strategies. Politics will fracture further, splintering to the hard Left and Right. The Front National's Marie Le Pen's will beat Maréchal Sarkozy into the French run-off invoking 'terroir' and the ancient franc. Escalating levels of coercion will be needed to uphold the Project, with EU commissars eating alone in the administered territories of Greece and Italy.

Far from protecting credit ratings, Europe's self-defeating policies will bring a blizzard of downgrades. France's AAA will go, obviously. So will Austria's as banking woes deepen in Hungary, Ukraine, and Croatia. Vigilantes will take a closer look at Holland's household debt, off the charts at 270pc of disposable income. The shrinking AAA core will leave Germany propping up the EFSF bail-out fund, until the weight of contingent liabilities endangers Germany itself. That will concentrate minds. France's President Hollande will "triangulate", playing the pan-Latin card to discomfit Berlin and force a policy change. Portugal's Troika sacrifices will prove as futile as Greek efforts before. Lisbon's second bail-out will come just as Greece graduates from riots to insurrection, and Italy's Silvio Berlusconi will try to snatch power again by whipping up fury against Tedeschi. Bundestag patience will snap at such disorder everywhere.

Germany will not be able to fudge EMU any longer. It must either immolate itself, accepting a debt union and internal inflation to save a currency it never wanted and doesn't love; or opt instead to uphold fiscal sovereignty and the essence of its own democracy, and let the Project die. The shrewd, equivocating, ice-cold Chancellor will quietly oust arch-europhile Wolfgang Schauble and let the Project die, always pretending otherwise.

Just an idle hunch. Guten Rutsch.

Last edited by ORAC; 2nd Jan 2012 at 22:47.
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Old 2nd Jan 2012, 22:26
  #495 (permalink)  

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So, in brevity dear ORAC, what you appear to be saying is :-

"Da sheet is about to heet de fan"

Who am I to argue

Buckle down amigo !
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Old 3rd Jan 2012, 00:18
  #496 (permalink)  
 
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Question 2: Prospects for the eurozone - FT.com

How many currencies will exist in the area now called the eurozone by the end of 2012? How effectively can the UK insulate itself from the eurozone?

The full article is worth reading, it contains the answers of about 50 people from the world of finance to these questions.
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Old 3rd Jan 2012, 05:54
  #497 (permalink)  
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Orac: very gloomy article indeed from the Telegraph, but Stuckgear did better with his article (same news paper) telling the world like an oracle some prediction (with accurate dates and events, better than your local fortune teller!): 1 country will leave Euro in 2012 and Eurozone collapse starts this year according to the London' CEBR - directly linked with the finance and speculator world in The City - !

Monitor The Telegraph closely, there is still a chance for you to get the opportunity to find a great article predicting the end of the world for tomorrow!


In 2011 you have already quoted many gloomy articles that was forecasting Titanic every tomorrow. It seems that 2012 is heading to be a good and busy year too for you! (humor Orac... Cheers )


A new EU member has been welcomed by EU last month, many countries are preparing themselves to enter Eurozone, and you focus on today, right now, completely brainwashed by the news papers that need you to beleive in them in order to sell more and to please all the eurosceptics that are betting against Euro.

If it was honest "forecasts", or at least a honest discussion, it could be very interesting, but it is very clear that the ones predicting the end of the Euro every day, every year, are the ones officially HOPING and willing such a thing to happen.
Not biased at all!


This thread has became a competition to copy/paste here the nicest cristal ball predictions possible, what a contest!

Meanwhile, in december, exports in Eurozone are doing slightly better we start to hear...

Euro being lower, how much brain does it take to understand what will it do to Eurozone, knowing that Eurozone is the first exporting economy in the world?

I beleive I remember we already spoke about that several times...

Cookies must be enabled | The Australian : Falling euro value boost to eurozone exporters


As I already said: it is foolish to bet against Euro (which has for effect to lower its value), Eurozone being mainly an exporting economy (bigger exporting economy than China), and as such wants something badly (like China for example): lower its currency.
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Old 3rd Jan 2012, 10:04
  #498 (permalink)  
 
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Well stop the presses. Croatia is Joining the EU, a 28th member state. all is saved !!

A game changer ?

not really.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) classifies [COLOR=#333333 !important][COLOR=#333333 !important]Croatia[/COLOR][/COLOR] as an emerging and developing economy, while The World Bank classifies the country as a high income economy.


Croatia’s total land area is 56,594 square kilometers and the country has a population of 4,489,409, according to the 2009 consensus.

The Croatian economy received a boost starting from 2000 when [COLOR=#333333 !important][COLOR=#333333 !important]tourism[/COLOR][/COLOR] picked up and was further helped by a stimulus from the credit boom, from newly privatized banks. Road construction and transportation also helped the country tap into the tourism potential that it boasts today.

Croatia experienced economic challenges starting in 2008 during the world’s [COLOR=#333333 !important][COLOR=#333333 !important]financial[/COLOR][/COLOR] crisis. However, the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) has improved, primarily due to an increase in tourism. Tourism was responsible for almost 66 percent of growth in 2008. Industry and agriculture sectors also contribute to Croatia’s economy.

In 2010, Croatia GDP was US$ 59.917 billion, shrinking at a rate of -1.456 percent due to the after-shocks of the economic crisis. However Croatia’s economy is expected to stabilize in 2011 as GDP is forecast to grow 1.64 percent to US$ 61.441 billion, mainly through tourism.
Another Greece joins the EU. A tourist and small agriculture based economy, with large amounts of infrastructure costs to deal with.. yep that'll save the Euro..

KAG, no matter how exports may be up, there is still the structural debt problem which you seem to just ignore. And with the global economy at risk from Eurozone exposure, how long do you think exports will continue to increase ?
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Old 3rd Jan 2012, 10:21
  #499 (permalink)  
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KAG, no matter how exports may be up, there is still the structural debt problem which you seem to just ignore.
And the tensions caused by the diiferent economic needs of the individual countries being ignored with the decisions being made by Germany, for Germany's benefit....

8.35am: Spain's unemployment level has hit a new record high.

In a sign of the challenge facing the new Spanish government, the number of people registered as 'out of work' hit 4.42 million at the end of December. That's the highest level since they first started collecting the figures in 1996, and will push the unemployment rate further above 22%.

Spain's labour ministry blamed the country's weakening economy for the increase:
The figures for the number of registered unemployed for the month of December confirm the deterioration of the economic situation during the second half of the year.
This is the second blow to hit Spain in four days – last Friday, it was announced that the Spanish deficit for 2011 will be larger than the official target of 6% of GDP, and could hit 8%.

Mariano Rajoy's new administration also unveiled €8.9bn of spending cuts and €6bn of tax rises designed to cut the deficit – but the plan is unlikely to help with Spain's huge unemployment crisis.

09:55: Germany's unemployment rate at record low in December Germany is seen as the EU's powerhouse German unemployment fell to its lowest rate in December since 1991, according to the German Federal Labour Agency.

The adjusted jobless rate fell to 6.8% from 6.9% in November, the Federal Labour Office said. This marked a new record low since figures for unified Germany were first published.

The seasonally-adjusted total for the number of people out of work in Germany fell 22,000 to 2.88 million in December. The agency said the number of people out of work averaged 2.976 million over the course of last year. This was equal to an average jobless rate of 7.1 % - down from 7.7% in 2010.
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Old 3rd Jan 2012, 11:30
  #500 (permalink)  
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Stuckgear:
KAG, no matter how exports may be up, there is still the structural debt problem which you seem to just ignore.
Debt in the western world is the major challenge to face right now.
More spending? More debts.
Less spendings? Less growth, more debts.
QE (the fact to print money out of nowhere): inflation and more debts.
NO QE: finance crisis so more debts.

I wouldn't want to be a western country' finance minister those days (unless it's Canada or Australia).

I am looking forward to see how our governments will get our economies out of this trap...

Speaking of debts, news from Italy today:

The finance ministry said the country had a public deficit - the shortfall between tax income and spending - of €61.5 billion ($78.96bn), down from €67bn in 2010.
The government had expected a deficit of €64.8bn for last year and the better showing reflected improved tax revenues and lower spending, the ministry said.


It makes Italy one of the lowest deficit among western countries... Definitely under control (of course you will prove me wrong immediately).
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