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EU Politics - Hamsterwheel

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EU Politics - Hamsterwheel

Old 31st Jul 2013, 14:58
  #3421 (permalink)  
 
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i imagine that most folowing this thread won't need reminding that:

a) Fr Merkel has said there will be no hair-cuts on state-loans to Greece
b) Fr Merkel is up for re-election in September.

If in the re-election campaign Angie is forced to say, for example, that there will be no hair-cuts on Greek loans, that would be hideously embarassing later if it were the case, but then politicians are as thick-skinned as rhinos.

The only potential problem there is the Federal Constitutional Court. If a politician said, as part of her campaign that there would be no hair-cut and there was ( difficult to blur that ), then there could possibly be a recourse to the court ( outcome entirely unknown AFAIK ).
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Old 2nd Aug 2013, 07:14
  #3422 (permalink)  
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Eurozone on brink, again -- investors, analysts

Given the absence of serious moves from Europe, anything could set off another bout of international financial contagion

Dow Jones Market Watch is warning of major problems emanating from the Eurozone. This comes amid the latest data from Spain where the economy contracted yet again, this time by 1.7 percent in the second quarter on a year-on-year basis. More problems were reported out of Greece, Italy and Germany.

In an article today, Michael Casey, managing editor for the Americas at DJ FX Trader, said:
"...you’d think the threat of a euro-zone financial meltdown would force policymakers into a tough, unified solution. That they’re not doing so is a worry for all of us. In our interconnected global economy, anything could set off another bout of international financial contagion..."
Reuters reported that in Spain, the Eurozone's fourth largest economy, retail sales dropped for the 36th month running in June, by over five percent year-on-year. The country's youth unemployment rate, like Greece's, hovers around 60 percent, with general jobless rates around 27 percent.

According to Bloomberg, quoting a report from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) Wednesday, Greece is highly unlikely to meet its debt obligations:
"The IMF’s reminder to Europe comes as Greece’s financial fate has become entwined with German politics, with Chancellor Angela Merkel campaigning for a third term on the promise Germany won’t write off any of the loans made to Greece since the debt crisis broke out almost four years ago. Most of Greece’s debt is now held by the Europeans and the IMF after investors took part in the biggest debt restructuring in history last year."
In Italy, the Eurozone's third largest economy, political turbulence continued over the fate of former Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi.

Outside Europe, Lebanon Opportunities argued on Wednesday:
"Germany is incapable of solving the euro zone's sovereign debt crisis alone," underlining the ongoing problems for Chancellor Merkel and other German politicians in underwriting the financial problems of Europe's south.
Sceptics of the modern European project have long argued that it was only a matter of time before the kind of existential crisis seen in 2010-12 re-emerged. Nouriel Roubini, a professor at NYU’s Stern School of Business and a former White House advisor, argued last year in an article entitled: "The Eurozone's delayed reckoning", that:
"The tail risks of a Greek exit from the eurozone or a massive loss of market access in Italy and Spain have been reduced for 2013. But the fundamental crisis of the eurozone has not been resolved, and another year of muddling through could revive these risks in a more virulent form in 2014 and beyond. Unfortunately, the eurozone crisis is likely to remain with us for years to come, sustaining the likelihood of coercive debt restructurings and eurozone exits."

Last edited by ORAC; 2nd Aug 2013 at 07:15.
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Old 6th Aug 2013, 09:22
  #3423 (permalink)  
 
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IMF sees no end to French jobless crisis this decade - Telegraph
Once again, leftist policies are failing. Sadly, it's no longer news.

The IMF called on president Francois Hollande to slow the pace of fiscal tightening next year to avoid an economic relapse, pouring cold water on claims that a fresh cycle of healthy growth is now under way.

“Given the still hesitant recovery, the government should ease the pace of adjustment,” it said in its annual healthcheck. It warned of “significant” contagion for surrounding states if French growth stalls again.



A chorus of French economists has accused Mr Hollande of wishful thinking in proclaiming the crisis to be over.

The Left-leaning Observatoire Economique said the EMU policy regime remains contractionary and risks pushing France’s economy into outright deflation next year.



The IMF said the jobless rate will rise yet further to 11.6pc in 2014 and will not drop below 10.6pc within Mr Hollande’s five-year term. If this grim scenario unfolds, it will be a political hammer blow for Mr Hollande.
Two-thirds of Mr Hollande’s fiscal squeeze has come from taxes, to the fury of the business lobby Medef.

The IMF’s critique is gentle compared with blistering attacks on Mr Hollande by some French commentators. Nicolas Baverez called Mr Hollande the “Gamelin of economic war”, a reference to the general who relied on the Maginot Line and oversaw the collapse in 1940. “The France of 2013 is an island of immobility, suffering from lack of leadership and strategy, just as in 1940. Hollande has placed the Republic at the mercy of the National Front and the euro,” he said.
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Old 6th Aug 2013, 09:43
  #3424 (permalink)  
 
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If this grim scenario unfolds, it will be a political hammer blow for Mr Hollande.
Politically yes, financially no. He will leave office with all the perks associated with ex presidents. Those suffering the hammer blows will be the French people, including the millions of idiots who voted for him, the latter of which I do not have one gramme of sympathy.
As normal, they will continue to blame others, while staying away from mirrors to avoid seeing the real culprits.
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Old 17th Aug 2013, 13:49
  #3425 (permalink)  
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BRUSSELS (Reuters) - The economies of Germany and France grew faster than expected in the second quarter, bettering a widely heralded expansion in the United States and pulling the euro zone out of a 1-1/2 year-long recession.

The increased pace was primarily driven by renewed business and consumer spending in the 17-country bloc's two largest economies.
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Old 21st Aug 2013, 07:03
  #3426 (permalink)  
 
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A blind halfwitted worm could have seen this coming, but it will no doubt come as a huge surprise to the mindless morons of Brussels with their collective heads up their backsides.

Greece needs third bail-out, admits German finance minister - Telegraph

More EU taxpayers' money into the black hole of the Greek economy.
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Old 27th Aug 2013, 17:48
  #3427 (permalink)  
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Greece may seek to ease its debt burden by renegotiating its bailout terms, the Greek finance minister said on Monday.

Yannis Stournaras told German newspaper Handelsblatt this could involve lower interest payments and more time to repay 240bn euros (£206bn) in loans.

It comes a day after he conceded that Greece may face a hole in its finances of up to 10bn euros.

Speculation over Athens' borrowing needs comes at a sensitive time, with German elections due in September.

Earlier this month German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble said for the first time that Greece will need another bailout to plug a forthcoming funding gap.

The Greek bailout remains a sensitive topic in Germany. Chancellor Angela Merkel is seeking re-election on 22 September, and many German voters feel they have already contributed enough to European bailouts.


I thought that the deal was that the Greeks were supposed to keep quiet about this until after the German elections. Why are they jumping the gun ?
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Old 2nd Sep 2013, 10:49
  #3428 (permalink)  
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Report from the Real World

So lay aside the papers, turn the TV off., ' cos here's a report from the real world of one of the PIIGS.

Economy on the Costas depends on tourists. So how did summer on the Costa Brava go ? The good news (if you don't mind incompetent driving and rudeness in supermarkets) is that the local French - from the other side of the mountains - came down in their millions as usual. The bad news is that villa rentals were again down to one week sessions: more work for the turn-around crews every Saturday. And looking at the villas nearest to us, they started emptying by the third week in August. By the first of September everything was dead. This is the first year in twenty that we didn't have a single visiting circus - they usually do two or three passes through the area over four weeks. We also didn't have a "Bigfoot" motorshow. Nor a rock concert.

The biggest local fitness centre closed at the end of August due to lack of clients (a rumoured income of €16000-€20000 a month seemingly wasn't enough for the Spanish owner.) It will come as no surprise to anyone who has read my comments on the inability of Spanish to manage businesses to learn that an Englishman is planning on reopening it in October. Likewise, the larger villa rentals, a local civic centre pool and restaurant, and local builders are all run by English: in contrast to the doctors and dentists who are German.

The wind tunnel down at the Dropzone, built and run by Russians, is such a success that the Arabs want to buy it: Russians say no, Arabs say OK we'll build our own. Arabs already bought the Dropzone and want to extend the runway.

Residential property sales are well up, bolstered by an increase in Russian tourists of 50% this year. Commercial property sales are in the doldrums: with new builds taking over.

I think it's only the foreigners who are keeping this part of Spain going. Does it matter ? Well it would be nice if the Spanish learned a few lessons in how to make money, rather than by sitting back and putting a percentage of someone else's income in their pockets.

Last edited by OFSO; 2nd Sep 2013 at 10:51.
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Old 8th Sep 2013, 08:50
  #3429 (permalink)  
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Old 11th Sep 2013, 10:06
  #3430 (permalink)  
 
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The latest drivel from this odious prick .......

Rolling back the EU threatens return to 'war and trenches' says José Manuel Barroso - Telegraph

The European Commission president has used his annual "state of the Union" speech to MEPs to warn Eurosceptics that their hostility to the EU could again plunge Europe into war.
Whereas UKIP have said:
"It was not the EU which ensured peace in Europe but Nato and thousands of American soldiers. It is the EU via the euro and massive austerity which is causing huge unemployment, poverty and social unrest. Violence in Spain and Greece is a direct consequence of EU policies."
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Old 11th Sep 2013, 14:46
  #3431 (permalink)  
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Greece may need two more bail-outs, says Coene

Greece may need two more rescue packages to keep the beleaguered economy afloat, European Central Bank ratesetter Luc Coene has warned.
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Old 11th Sep 2013, 15:57
  #3432 (permalink)  
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EU lawyers say financial transaction tax is illegal

European efforts to impose a financial transaction tax (FTT) have been plunged into further chaos after Brussels’ own lawyers concluded that the levy is unlawful.

A leaked opinion from the European Union’s legal service contains warnings that the flagship policy is “not compatible” with existing laws and is also “discriminatory”. The 14-page document, dated September 6, said the levy “exceeds Member States’ jurisdiction for taxation” and “infringes upon the taxing competences” of states that have refused to adopt it.

Experts warned that the strongly-worded opinion, although not binding, could fatally undermine the FTT. Open Europe said: “The FTT is dying a death of a thousand cuts, this one could be the final one.” The London-based think tank added that it was a “big win for the UK”, which took the rare decision to threaten legal action against the policy.

In April, five global markets’ associations wrote to G20 finance ministers urging them to intervene on Europe’s plans, which they said threatened “harmful spillover effects on the global economy”.

A Treasury source said: “We have consistently opposed the European Commission’s FTT proposals and now the EU’s own legal advice shows that these proposals are likely to be both illegal and damaging to the EU’s economy. The opinion produced vindicates our decision to challenge the FTT in the European Court.”

However, Germany, which is one of 11 EU countries to have already agreed to impose an FTT, insisted that “nothing had changed” and its plans for the levy were on track. In a statement issued from Berlin, it said: “The German government advocates a swift introduction of the FTT for good reasons. We want to make the financial sector contribute adequately to the costs of the financial crisis. Nothing has changed on that. The legal concerns must be cleared up and dispelled as quickly as possible.”

The FTT was designed to raise €35bn by imposing a charge on financial transactions. It was billed by politicians as a simple way of forcing financial firms to help contribute to national governments in the wake of the crisis. But the UK and others argued that the FTT’s “counterparty principle”, whereby the levy would be imposed on a transaction even if only one of the trading partners was in the taxed zone, was beyond the legal scope of the participating states.

The leaked legal opinion agreed that the plans raised “issues of extra-territorial exercise of jurisdiction, disrespect of non-participating Member States rights and compatibility with the principles of free movement of capital and discrimination”. It added: “The FTT proposed will be levied not only on risky activities but to a large extent also on activities with a genuine economic substance that are not liable to contribute to systemic risk and which are indispensable for the activities of non-financial business entities.”
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Old 20th Sep 2013, 08:31
  #3433 (permalink)  
 
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Who do you think you?re kidding, Mr Schäuble? - Telegraph

Alles ist nicht gut mit dem Euro ......
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Old 21st Sep 2013, 10:33
  #3434 (permalink)  
 
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Forty-five years ago this weekend, Enoch Powell warned of what he saw as the consequences of immigration. The anniversary of the “rivers of blood” speech is a good moment to ask how far Britain is regarded as a multicultural society. It is also an opportunity to look further at the attitudes of minority voters towards politics in general and the Conservative Party in particular.
45 years on, do ethnic minorities remember ?rivers of blood?? - Lord Ashcroft Polls

The article is worth reading, whatever your political perspective.
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Old 21st Sep 2013, 15:40
  #3435 (permalink)  
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To return to Spain and its problems. I was having a beer (OK, I confess, it was a shandy) with a fellow Brit yesterday who works in Spain and like me pays his taxes here, and we listed all of the Brits we know who do (live here) and don't (pay their taxes) despite running successful businesses.

You (being British) phone up a guy to work on your house and he comes up in a UK registered van. Taxi to the airport ? Private car turns up with UK plates. Same applies to one other nation:if you are French, make ze call, up he comes in a Perpignan registered van. Must add that the other big presence here, the Germans, seem to be fully legit.

The mystery is The Authorities. Don't they care ? Is it too much trouble to take action against illegal "residents" ? When someone foreign turns up at the CAP for free medical treatment, doesn't anyone ask what are you doing here ? Or getting the kids into school, why no questions asked ?

I tell you, Spain - or this part of it - takes being laid back to a new dimension.

(Incidently my apologies to any local Spanish or Catalans if I have insulted them by suggesting that they also pay all of their taxes all the time.)

Last edited by OFSO; 21st Sep 2013 at 15:41.
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Old 22nd Sep 2013, 21:20
  #3436 (permalink)  
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Das neue eiserne Mädchen.
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Old 23rd Sep 2013, 06:51
  #3437 (permalink)  
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What Germany's leader needs is a good tailor.

Politics aside, she's a visual joke compared to Maggie.

Last edited by OFSO; 23rd Sep 2013 at 06:51.
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Old 24th Sep 2013, 07:00
  #3438 (permalink)  
 
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Mario Draghi pledges to pump more into banks if needed

Mario Draghi, president of the European Central Bank, has pledged to provide billions of more euros to banks in the single currency bloc to avert any future threat of a credit crunch.
The problem with Socialism is that sooner or later, other peoples' money runs out. Or is this simply what would be called recycling debt and staving off the inevitable?
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Old 25th Sep 2013, 22:30
  #3439 (permalink)  
 
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Could the currency bubble created around the globe by all this quantitative easing made it easier for him to make these kinds of promises? He has more cash at the mo'?

But what do I know. I got a C in Economics at uni.
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Old 26th Sep 2013, 01:50
  #3440 (permalink)  
 
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The problem with Socialism is that sooner or later, other peoples' money runs out. Or is this simply what would be called recycling
a very worn out hackneyed saying.
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