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USA Politics - Hamster Wheel

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USA Politics - Hamster Wheel

Old 7th Sep 2012, 16:50
  #7621 (permalink)  
 
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Winning over hearts and minds in Iowa.



Giant American Flag Left on the Ground Before Obama Event at University of Iowa | TheBlaze.com
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Old 7th Sep 2012, 16:57
  #7622 (permalink)  
 
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Turbine: I agree almost completely with your assessment of Social Security, except for the bit about Congress not changing it in the future.

So it appears to me that you are a fan of Paul Ryan, and I expect your tick to be next to his name in November!
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Old 7th Sep 2012, 17:13
  #7623 (permalink)  
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When I was a lad at school in Connecticut the raising of the flag in the morning and the lowering of it in the evening were tedious chores of rote. However, it was clearly understood that any student who allowed the flag to touch the ground at any time would have to provide a brand new one.
In the eyes of some of those who stayed in Europe this might seem extraordinary but respect for the flag of your country, as Philip Nolan discovered to his cost, is a fine thing to have.
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Old 7th Sep 2012, 17:14
  #7624 (permalink)  

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Poor Hillary. Never thought I'd say that, but, as she is looking to be the Democratic candidate in 2016, I'm starting to wonder what her platfrom will be.

Say Obama does win, having made the same basic promises again that he made in 2008 and the expected resluts will be that by 2016 we will be in the same basic shape. Will she campaign on 'Let's give the Obama Plan four more years.'

Or, 'The guy was a friggin' loser like I said he was in 2007 and 2008, vote for me because I'm not going to do anything like Obama did.'

Should be interesting.
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Old 7th Sep 2012, 17:16
  #7625 (permalink)  
 
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Matari,

From the Economist: A European viewpoint 4 months ago
The world economy
Can it be…the recovery?
The outlook for the world economy is better than it was, but there are still big risks out there
THERE are tantalising signs of good news in the world economy. In America firms are hiring more and consumers are spending more. The euro zone's recession is proving milder than expected. Greece's debt restructuring, the first sovereign default in a developed economy for 60 years, has passed off without a hitch. Cheered by the signs of recovery, and relieved that disaster has been avoided (particularly in Europe, which towards the end of last year seemed on the brink of a calamity of Lehman-like magnitude), financial markets have been climbing steadily higher. The MSCI global share index is up by almost 9% since the beginning of the year and by 20% since its lows last October.

After so much gloom, it is hardly surprising that the world's animal spirits are beginning to leap again. Yet there are good reasons to be wary of all the optimism. Global growth, dragged down by less ebullient emerging economies as well as recession in Europe, is still likely to be slower this year than it was in 2011. And there are still big risks out there. Too often since the 2008 financial crisis investors' hopes for strong and lasting growth have been dashed—whether by bad luck (soaring oil prices), bad policy (too much budget austerity too fast) or the painful realisation that recoveries after asset busts are generally weak and fragile. If tensions with Iran over its nuclear programme spike, for instance, an oil-supply shock could once more cause havoc. Much could yet go wrong.

Less gloom, but no boom

Conveniently enough for a president who is seeking re-election in November, the clearest signs of recovery are in America. The good news is both cyclical, as stronger employment fuels income and spending, and structural, as evidence mounts that the drags from the housing bust are waning. Exclude the temporary work involved in carrying out America's 2010 census, and more jobs have been created in the three months since November than in any three-month period since 2006. Unemployment and underemployment are both falling. House prices continue to drift lower, but both construction and home sales have started to rise. Consumer credit is growing and the fiscal squeeze has loosened, thanks to an easing of state-level budgets and Congress's extension of temporary tax cuts until the end of the year.

None of this is the stuff of boom times. For the year as a whole America's economy will probably grow around its trend rate of around 2.5%. That's a lot lower than might be expected after a normal recession; but after financial crises, when consumers are weighed down by debt, recoveries tend to be anaemic. That level of growth will not bring the jobless rate down fast, but it would be an improvement on 2011 and, more important, it could be the first step towards a self-sustaining recovery, thanks to the virtuous circle of stronger job growth leading to higher consumer spending, which in turn should generate more jobs.

Europe, by contrast, remains a long way from recovery. There the good news is simply that things are a lot less bad than they might have been. Thanks to the massive provision of liquidity to banks by the European Central Bank (ECB) under Mario Draghi's new management, both a financial collapse and a nasty credit crunch seem to have been averted. The result is a shallow recession which Germany may escape altogether. Add up this disparate evidence and the case for modest optimism is solid. But much more needs to be done to build a more durable recovery.

America's priority should be to craft a medium-term plan which puts the budget deficit on a downward path without snuffing out the recovery. There is, unfortunately, not a chance that it will do that before November's Presidential election. The reasons for optimism are real. But if policymakers get it wrong again, the recovery could yet turn to dust.
Keep in mind you have to look globally, not just domestically, the world is smaller and the economies are intertwined. Ask any American economist and the response would be similar, the road to recovery will take until at least 2016, no matter who is elected President. That is my position as well.
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Old 7th Sep 2012, 17:23
  #7626 (permalink)  
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Nouriel Roubini, an economist who has been quite prescient in the past, would seem to anticipate a perfect global storm in 2016.
Adhere to this interpretation of the Koran or, if you prefer, the Talmud. Divide your money into thirds, keep one in gold, one in guns and the third in drugs.

Last edited by cavortingcheetah; 7th Sep 2012 at 17:24.
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Old 7th Sep 2012, 18:37
  #7627 (permalink)  
 
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But I came here for an Argument

So I thought it would be good to bring some fresh bath water to the venue, an opposing viewpoint using data, facts and sometimes humor rather than myths that take up space on Snopes but appear here.
I wonder if TurbineD has recognized that he's stumbled into a Monty Python Sketch.....

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Old 7th Sep 2012, 19:26
  #7628 (permalink)  
 
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cavortingcheetah,
Nouriel Roubini, an economist who has been quite prescient in the past, would seem to anticipate a perfect global storm in 2016.
Adhere to this interpretation of the Koran or, if you prefer, the Talmud. Divide your money into thirds, keep one in gold, one in guns and the third in drugs.
He was and is someone to listen to. He is a professor at NYU's Stern School of Business teaching economics. In 2004, he began to write about the financial collapse he thought would occur, predicting it would happen. When he gave some lectures about it to the IMF, people laughed. He became known as Dr. Doom. However he was correct in his analysis, the housing market and prices would be the tipping point, they were.

In 2008 he said:
“Our biggest financiers are China, Russia and the gulf states,” Roubini noted. “These are rivals, not allies.”The United States, will likely muddle through the crisis but will emerge from it a different nation, with a different place in the world. “Once you run current-account deficits, you depend on the kindness of strangers,” he said, pausing to let out a resigned sigh. “This might be the beginning of the end of the American empire.”
BTW, Roubini was born to Turkish parents who were Jewish, so is he. I doubt he reads the Koran, but he is keeping most of his money in cash, not stocks & bonds. He would be a "bear" economist but we are living in bearish times...
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Old 7th Sep 2012, 19:28
  #7629 (permalink)  
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So here I am mid Friday afternoon and already today I have 3 suppliers comment when inquiring about back orders, their joking response was, "Did you not hear the President last night you should lower your expectations"

I did not watch the DNC but it must be pretty pathetic if that is your campaign slogan/mantra. Gee Whiz, that must have been something that I am gald I missed.

VFD
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Old 7th Sep 2012, 19:54
  #7630 (permalink)  
 
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Interesting piece here about a NY Times (!) profile of Obama. Pretty much confirms the guy is an empty suit who is at the same time, full of himself:

Those were not the only times Mr. Obama may have overestimated himself: he has also had a habit of warning new hires that he would be able to do their jobs better than they could.
“I think that I’m a better speechwriter than my speechwriters,” Mr. Obama told Patrick Gaspard, his political director, at the start of the 2008 campaign, according to The New Yorker. “I know more about policies on any particular issue than my policy directors. And I’ll tell you right now that I’m going to think I’m a better political director than my political director.”
Imagine, for a minute, that you are on the board of directors of a company. You have a CEO who is not meeting his numbers and who is suffering a declining popularity with his customers. You want to help this CEO recover, but then you learn he doesn’t want your help. He is smarter than you and eager to tell you this. Confidence or misplaced arrogance? You’re not sure at first. If the company was performing well, you’d ignore it. But the company is performing poorly, so you can’t. With some digging, you learn, to your horror, that the troubled CEO spends a lot of time on — what the hell? — bowling? Golf? Three point shots? While the company is going south?
What do you do? You fire that CEO. Clint Eastwood was right. You let the guy go.
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Old 7th Sep 2012, 20:19
  #7631 (permalink)  
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Turbine D

Here's a snippet from Dr Realist's interview with Bloomberg on August 9th.
Interestingly enough, his parents are both Iranian and he was brought up in Italy.

(What are your scenarios for the world economy?
I would say that there are three scenarios. One is continued economic and financial difficulties in advanced economies, but short of another perfect storm. So economic weakness in advanced economies, but avoiding another global economic and financial crisis.

Another one is a global perfect storm. This is more a downside scenario where the euro zone becomes disorderly and eventually you get more countries losing market access, more countries defaulting, more countries exiting the euro zone. You get the U.S. slowing down and then having a stall speed and a bubble bursting. You get a hard landing in China. You get a stall in growth in emerging markets. And you get a war in the Middle East between Israel and the U.S. on one side and Iran [on the other]. You know, it’s a bubbling of all crises. That will be the perfect storm. You know, that perfect storm is not my baseline scenario, but I would say that all five of those negative trends in a less extreme way are already underway. The euro zone is a slow-motion train wreck. The U.S. is slowing down. The Chinese landing looks harder rather than softer. Other nations are slowing down. And the tensions in the Middle East might build up again. So you have a very bumpy road ahead this year and next year for the global economy.

Then you have an optimistic scenario in which maybe things improve in the U.S.—slowly, slowly. In which the euro zone muddles through and maybe goes toward a greater economic fiscal and political union. China is able to have a soft landing. Emerging markets do the structural reform that they need for growth. And we avoid conflict in the Middle East. Now, if all of those things are happening, well, I don’t expect that by next year the world goes into high economic growth, but maybe emerging markets can grow. And maybe after another two or three years of that bumpy road ahead, advanced economies go back to potential growth. Potential growth maybe is the best we can hope for, for the time being.

What are the percentages?
Well, I think that the Goldilocks scenario in which everything becomes much better over the next, say, 18 months, between now and the end of next year, has a 10 percent probability. A world in which we continue to have a euro-zone recession but you don’t have a breakup, but things remain ugly; you have growth in the U.S. close to stall speed, but not a recession; slow growth in China and the emerging markets; and we avoid a war in the Middle East but we still have tension is maybe, you know, a 55 percent probability scenario. Then the rest of it is 35 percent. So, I would say there is a one-third probability to get a global perfect storm next year.)

Which probably puts him back in the Dr Doom role model.
Edit: His parents are not were.

Last edited by cavortingcheetah; 7th Sep 2012 at 20:21.
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Old 7th Sep 2012, 20:20
  #7632 (permalink)  
 
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Cool

Hi,




Last edited by jcjeant; 7th Sep 2012 at 20:21.
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Old 7th Sep 2012, 22:01
  #7633 (permalink)  
 
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cavortingcheetah,
Here's a snippet from Dr Realist's interview with Bloomberg on August 9th.
Interestingly enough, his parents are both Iranian and he was brought up in Italy.
Thanks for the snippet. You are correct, His parents are Jewish Iranians. Roubini was born in Istanbul, Turkey in late March, 1958. He moved with his family to Iran and then to Israel before they settled in Italy in 1962. This is according the the online Encyclopedia Britannica.

I like Roubini because he evaluates all the things that are going on in the world, political situations, responses of various countries to financial economic turmoil, debt situations, etc. Then he makes his predictions... BTW, China is really a big player in all of this. They advertise a relatively low debt to GDP but actually their debt is now at least 80% of their GDP and still growing. That is why he isn't sure of a soft or hard landing for China. A hard landing would really hurt the US as well as the Euro Zone big players.
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Old 7th Sep 2012, 22:46
  #7634 (permalink)  
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I still think that all these politicians are spending far too much time campaigning for election or re-election, when there are far more serious things happening in the world today, and the USA is not going to avoid the consequences. The most recent episode of Dan Carlin's Common Sense podcast, Trapped by the Inflexible Mind, does a good job of articulating what's bugging me.

For starters, he's bang on the money about Jobs, in several ways:
- the major concern of American voters today is Jobs. The economy is only important in its ability to deliver jobs, healthcare, and other things people need. They could hardly care less about economic theory, Hayek vs Keynes etc.;
- Politicians can not deliver meaningful numbers of jobs. They just do not have that kind of power over the economy;
- Not all jobs are created equal. People don't just want jobs, they want "middle class" jobs that enable them to live the American Dream of a house, a car, and the prospect of a decent future for their kids;
- Those "middle class" jobs are (for the most part) gone, and they are not coming back. No electable politician can deliver them. The forces of Globalization have made that impossible. Great American success stories such as Apple now employ relatively small numbers of people in the USA, and outsource all their manufacturing to China, where labour is a fraction of the cost and workers' rights are almost non-existent. US workers can not compete with that. (Read linked story #4 on the page I linked above, for a good example of what Apple gains by using Foxconn.)

Yet there the politicians stand on their separate stages with their scripted speeches, either making promises they can not keep, or fudging the language so they can't be nailed down to commitments. The world really has changed, but it would be political suicide to admit it, never mind try to promulgate policies designed to manage the change. In my humble opinion, of course. You wonder why I get annoyed at all the irrelevant stuff posted in this thread, when people are struggling in ways no politician can begin to fix?

Last edited by bnt; 7th Sep 2012 at 22:47.
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Old 7th Sep 2012, 23:21
  #7635 (permalink)  

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True, the only way any government can really create jobs, would be to nationalize every single company and corporation.

Which has been tried and doesn't work.

Even in the countries that are still trying this, Cuba and North Korea, is active proof it doesn't work.

But don't tell that to the new generation of progressive, so-called liberal Democrats, you'll hurt their feelings.

Last edited by con-pilot; 7th Sep 2012 at 23:23.
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Old 7th Sep 2012, 23:52
  #7636 (permalink)  
 
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bnt...

Says... "I still think that all these politicians are spending far too much time campaigning for election or re-election, when there are far more serious things happening in the world today"

Truer words never spoken.

Our doom was forever sealed the day holding office became a 'career'. Politics is not a job, it is a scam....
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Old 8th Sep 2012, 02:06
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Our doom was forever sealed the day holding office became a 'career'. Politics is not a job, it is a scam..
So.. Let's create incentives.

If you haven't improved the overall lives of the majority of the drones at the end of your tenure you are marched out back and summarily shot. If you have achieved said goal you get the pension, Secret Service and the Library.

Then only serious contenders will vie for the office.
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Old 8th Sep 2012, 04:06
  #7638 (permalink)  
 
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True, the only way any government can really create jobs, would be to nationalize every single company and corporation
Don't give them any ideas.
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Old 8th Sep 2012, 04:57
  #7639 (permalink)  
 
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Democratic States supporting lazy Republican States

Federal Spending Received Per Dollar of Taxes Paid by State, 2005 | Tax Foundation

Those of us in the educated parts of the USA are getting sick of supporting the low-IQ social conservative rednecks.

The non-Americans know this intuitively. The natives...not so much.

Will soon post a map overlaying Obesity, IQ, and Political Affiliation by State...no surprises.

Just the facts ma'am, just the facts....
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Old 8th Sep 2012, 05:13
  #7640 (permalink)  
 
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Democratic States supporting lazy Republican States
Explain how New Mexico, #1 on the list, is a "Republican State" when both Senators and two out of it's three Congressmen are Democrats.........

Explain similar with Louisiana, and then we'll maybe go through things state by state to show what you said isn't true

Last edited by hellsbrink; 8th Sep 2012 at 05:17.
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